ILS will be becoming obsolete?
 

Howdy everyone.
I'm working in a report about replacing the ILS to the GBAS in a 3rd world country in the next 15 years.
What do you think, ILS will be becoming obsolete within 15 years?
And how will be the cost implementing a GBAS system?

I hope you can help me.

It's hard to say, an early version of a GLS (GNSS LANDING SYSTEM) of which GBAS is the most recent ICAO developed version, is in place at some airports in Norway.

It is called SCAT-1 (special category 1), only one or two operatos ever upgraded their aircraft to use it. ILS exists at some of those airfields as well.

GBAS is still very new technology, I only know of Honeywell that makes the ground equipment and Honeywell and universal are the only two FMS providers to make compatible equipment last time I checked on its progress.

15 years will only be enough to see a parallel operation of ILS and GLS.

Plus aircraft even down to the Citation II, King Air size are unlikely all to be fitted with Dual FMS and VHF datalink receivers. They will want an alternative in the form of ILS. But VORs and NDB should on the verge of extinction by then.

GBAS is quite new, and won't be able to replace ILS as a standard for quite some time. One reason of course is that it is only certified for CAT I operation and although CAT III trials are promising the introduction of CAT III GBAS/GLS is not anywhere close.

However a GBAS ground installation is quite a bit cheaper than ILS installations for all supported runway landing directions, so there is a certain incentive if the decision is to either install several ILSs or one GBAS installation.

Nevertheless, a GLS compatible multimode receiver is standard equipment on newer boeings and airbusses, our 737s since 2006 have it equipped and my outfit has been certified for operational use of CAT I GLS approaches since 2009 on the 737 fleet. Autoland/rollout is not currently certified but has been demonstrated and shows better performance than on an ILS especially since there is no need for any protected areas around the runway. Sadly there is only one fully certified GBAS airport in our route network which we do not use very often (EDDW) and another with a test installation that can only be used on the PM side currently (LEMG). There are plans to introduce GLS in EDDF and EDDM during the next few years, but so far there is no introduction date.

Although the 737NG is equipped with dual FMCs the whole GLS operation is based on the MMR and does not require the FMC to be setup for an GLS approach, the MMR receives both GPS and VHF datalink signals and produces an output for the autoflight system and instrument presentation that is identical to an ILS signal.

It will happen in time. Like everything in aviation it's about dumbing things down and saving costs wherever possible. Gradually you will see ILSs coming offline, then pressure from airlines to drop the minima as there is no evidence of an increased risk to operations and the diversions are hitting the bottom line.

Then there will be a big prang somewhere and some expert will come out and say that the minima should never have been lowered. Committees will be setup to investigate this issue as a matter of urgency. They will report in a few years (delayed by beaurecrats under pressure from directors of airlines) by which time the status quo prevails and we carry on. Another report will come out muddying the water and disproving the first. The only solution will be to carry on with the status quo until someone very expensive can come up with a final report.

At the same time there will be pressures to ditch the expensive guy in the left seat and run the flight from the ground using "superbly" trained aircraft controllers who are highly proficient at MS Flight Sim.

Thank you for your answers
 

Thank you for your answers.

‘ILS will be becoming obsolete?’
Same question asked in 1975, with increasing frequency congestion and risk of VHF radio interference.
MLS was the universal answer, but then we were promised something better.
GPS is still not quite reliable enough in some world locations, not fully Cat 3 capable, cost of ground installations, some unexplained drop outs, and now the possibility for interruptions to service (jamming).
What’s next that will be better and cheaper … … some sort of ILS …

ILS will be becoming obsolete?
 

some countries probably will never approve GBAS approaches as they based on a system, which is developed and maintained solely by the US (or Russia in case of GLONASS), which could just jam the transmission or make it less precise in case of another potential conflict. In terms of reliability an ILS has an undisputed advantage as it doesn't depend on external factors that much.

Political decision then. As there will be a minimum of three space segments in the future (US, russia, europe or china) that can change i guess.