The Death of British Aviation
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I've read and heard from several sources that the domestic airline industry in China is back to about 98% of their previous (pre-China flu) operational tempo.
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These ridiculous ill thought quarantine rules are strangling the life out our industry.
The most frightening aspect is the government has no end game. Numbers are increasing throughout Europe and now we have this crazy threshold for infections of 20 cases per 100.000.
Within 3/4 weeks there won’t be many places we can travel in Europe without having to quarantine on return.
While all this is killing the industry hospital admissions rates and death rates are not rising as earlier in the year.
The most frightening aspect is the government has no end game. Numbers are increasing throughout Europe and now we have this crazy threshold for infections of 20 cases per 100.000.
Within 3/4 weeks there won’t be many places we can travel in Europe without having to quarantine on return.
While all this is killing the industry hospital admissions rates and death rates are not rising as earlier in the year.
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Clamping down travel from locations with confirmed cases would have made sense half a year ago. Right now, it hardly does. The vast majority, and by that I mean well over 90% of all cases, are a result of domestic transmission. Imported cases are no longer a major source of new infections. So, how does it make sense to impose some seriously tough restrictions over what accounts for a minority of cases instead of directing the same policing resources towards stamping out the major source of cases, namely the non-adherence to any safety rules WITHIN the country?
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Screw UK aviation into the ground, reduce emissions, pretend we’ve all gone green, eliminate the need for RW3 at Heathrow and even the local MP (and many more Home Counties MPs) keep their jobs, siphon that money off into a vanity project called HS2
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There are many factors at work here, not least of which is the dawning realisation of the public that in aviation at least, it is much better to arrive than travel. Does anybody actually enjoy flying? Passengers and pilots seem to agree that it’s not fun anymore and hasn’t been for a looong time. Up until now there were no alternatives, however, in the non-aviation corporate world, non-flying and the alternative of remote working are ‘taking-off’ (apologies) in a big way, driven by cost savings and a real lack of desire with the decision makers (purse string holders) to get on a plane. Yes, you’ll still have the holidaymakers but businesses have grounded themselves (largely), for good (...or bad, depending on your perspective). Sadly there is now massive over-capacity for the foreseeable...and that means scaling down. It’s pure economics, the ‘eco-warriors’ are just sitting on the sidelines feeling a bit smug. The aviation industry will survive of course and perhaps it will be ‘fun‘ once again...just on a fraction of the scale today.
The truth is, the world has a growing population full of young people who do not wish to stay in one place. Travel is in the human psyche just like sex. When this finishes, give it a year there'll be the biggest boom in Airline travel that the world has ever seen... IMHO
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Unions in UK do nothing to help members. Take your subscription but when needed, the rabbit in the headlights appears and you are left on your own.
Businesses around the world, not just in the aviation sector, are falling apart. Governments, be they UK, US, European, are making it up as they go along because they were simply not prepared - they had no contingency for the "what if" situation.
All of this whilst China appears to carry on as normal. They've done their bit maybe and yet we still rely on the country for help. I don't just mean help with PPE either.
Never going to happen but the world (except China), needs to rally together and tackle industry, business and commerce to help all get back on their feet. It will take years maybe but whilst each country has it's own idea of recovery, the country next door does something different. Revolving door springs to mind.
Businesses around the world, not just in the aviation sector, are falling apart. Governments, be they UK, US, European, are making it up as they go along because they were simply not prepared - they had no contingency for the "what if" situation.
All of this whilst China appears to carry on as normal. They've done their bit maybe and yet we still rely on the country for help. I don't just mean help with PPE either.
Never going to happen but the world (except China), needs to rally together and tackle industry, business and commerce to help all get back on their feet. It will take years maybe but whilst each country has it's own idea of recovery, the country next door does something different. Revolving door springs to mind.
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ericsson16
I fully agree and 'IMHO' I feel that polax52 has got it spot on.
Cautious measures now might appear painful, for a while, but if that is what is needed to get the domestic economy opening up, that will provide the future demand for air travel. British Aviation will never die, it may look a little different eventually but it will survive ... and do well.
There... said it!
I fully agree and 'IMHO' I feel that polax52 has got it spot on.
Cautious measures now might appear painful, for a while, but if that is what is needed to get the domestic economy opening up, that will provide the future demand for air travel. British Aviation will never die, it may look a little different eventually but it will survive ... and do well.
There... said it!
Air travel may well boom again when this pandemic is finished....IF its ever truly finished! We are seeing the second wave hitting now, and who knows, there may be a third or fourth wave!
Everyone seems to cling to the thought that this will be over by next year...I am not so sure!
Then there is still Greta and her tree huggers to contend with...and oil isnt going to stay cheap forever...
The Duke of Wellington , when he was Prime Minister in the 1830s, said that he disliked the coming of the railways, "Because it enables the working classes to move about"....I think this is still Govt policy..."They" dont want us moving about any more...they want us sto stay at home and work online, where "they" know where we are and what we are doing...
Jetting off to Malaga for 2 weeks every summer is just what they dont want us doing!
Just my 2 rands worth...and I am not allowed to travel anywhere!!
Everyone seems to cling to the thought that this will be over by next year...I am not so sure!
Then there is still Greta and her tree huggers to contend with...and oil isnt going to stay cheap forever...
The Duke of Wellington , when he was Prime Minister in the 1830s, said that he disliked the coming of the railways, "Because it enables the working classes to move about"....I think this is still Govt policy..."They" dont want us moving about any more...they want us sto stay at home and work online, where "they" know where we are and what we are doing...
Jetting off to Malaga for 2 weeks every summer is just what they dont want us doing!
Just my 2 rands worth...and I am not allowed to travel anywhere!!
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Polax and Trossie,
Agree that travelling in the blood, long distance tourism may resume but that's generally economy.
The airlines biggest cash cow has been business/premium travel and IMHO is not going to rebound as fast as tourism.
Aviation will survive but will have to evolve.
Agree that travelling in the blood, long distance tourism may resume but that's generally economy.
The airlines biggest cash cow has been business/premium travel and IMHO is not going to rebound as fast as tourism.
Aviation will survive but will have to evolve.
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Ok; “IMHO”
Also, IMHO; You are perhaps making the mistake of ‘baseline trend neglect’. Young people are even more capable/‘happy’ to work online/remotely further negating the aviation/business bounce back. I agree, they (‘The Young’) will want to travel for leisure but the economics mean that their business travel will be down - because old codgers like me - in my mid-40s who are the decision makers on corporate travel - will say no. From what I can see the new generation of ‘Young’ are also finding it harder to build careers, harder to break free from their parental home and are struggling to make ends meet while saving for a large deposit for a house/flat (unlike my generation who wrecked it all with 95%+ mortgages). Are they really going to be able to fulfil their wanderlust in a way that will compensate for the loss of business travel, say, within the next ten years and are they going to accept the environmental impact (either real or perceived)? All, again, IMHO.
Also, IMHO; You are perhaps making the mistake of ‘baseline trend neglect’. Young people are even more capable/‘happy’ to work online/remotely further negating the aviation/business bounce back. I agree, they (‘The Young’) will want to travel for leisure but the economics mean that their business travel will be down - because old codgers like me - in my mid-40s who are the decision makers on corporate travel - will say no. From what I can see the new generation of ‘Young’ are also finding it harder to build careers, harder to break free from their parental home and are struggling to make ends meet while saving for a large deposit for a house/flat (unlike my generation who wrecked it all with 95%+ mortgages). Are they really going to be able to fulfil their wanderlust in a way that will compensate for the loss of business travel, say, within the next ten years and are they going to accept the environmental impact (either real or perceived)? All, again, IMHO.
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Trossie
(IMHO) You are quite correct - British Aviation will survive. It will look a LOT different though and SOME, indeed, will do well - in every crisis there is opportunity - but who will grasp the opportunity most fearlessly and firmly and who will cling on for dear life and succumb in the end regardless?
(IMHO) You are quite correct - British Aviation will survive. It will look a LOT different though and SOME, indeed, will do well - in every crisis there is opportunity - but who will grasp the opportunity most fearlessly and firmly and who will cling on for dear life and succumb in the end regardless?
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Chill out, nobody's monitoring your life to the extent that they want you to stay at home 24/7, work online and not go anywhere so that you're easier to track. Each one of us is just one of the many - and our daily activities are rather uninteresting to the New World Order or whatever you call it. And, even if someone wants to track your movement - that's easy enough, given that everyone has a smartphone in their pocket these days.
Aviation will still be there once this is over, and I don't buy the idea that it will be any smaller than pre-COVID. However, some things will look different. I think that this was one last nail in the coffin of proper short-haul legacy. Just watch what the likes of Wizz air are doing now. Expanding at Gatwick, Donny and where not else, while legacy carriers struggle with a high cost base and a severely reduced income. So, I see it as the LCC/ultra-LCC model becoming the standard for short-haul, simply because it's the only chance to catch up with the pioneers in that category. On short-haul routes, there will be this sort of no-frills service for the lower market segment, potentially an increased number of business jets for the premium segment - and not much in between.
Aviation will still be there once this is over, and I don't buy the idea that it will be any smaller than pre-COVID. However, some things will look different. I think that this was one last nail in the coffin of proper short-haul legacy. Just watch what the likes of Wizz air are doing now. Expanding at Gatwick, Donny and where not else, while legacy carriers struggle with a high cost base and a severely reduced income. So, I see it as the LCC/ultra-LCC model becoming the standard for short-haul, simply because it's the only chance to catch up with the pioneers in that category. On short-haul routes, there will be this sort of no-frills service for the lower market segment, potentially an increased number of business jets for the premium segment - and not much in between.
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Business travel will of course recover, for the same reason it was still growing in 2019 - despite Zoom and Teams already being here.
Middle managers at Companies A, B, C can all crow about how much they’re now saving on travel.
Right now it seems like an obvious win because everyone’s grounded.
Until Company D decides to get on the plane, and poaches that big account. And suddenly, everyone’s back travelling again.
Maintaining relationships and taking honest feedback is crucial in big business.
Otherwise, watch your logos churn without giving a moments thought about you.
Business travel will be back, not immediately, but it’ll work itself out.
Middle managers at Companies A, B, C can all crow about how much they’re now saving on travel.
Right now it seems like an obvious win because everyone’s grounded.
Until Company D decides to get on the plane, and poaches that big account. And suddenly, everyone’s back travelling again.
Maintaining relationships and taking honest feedback is crucial in big business.
Otherwise, watch your logos churn without giving a moments thought about you.
Business travel will be back, not immediately, but it’ll work itself out.
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True. Face-to-face contact will never, ever be completely replaced by Zoom. Business travel has an important social component to it which is unbreakably connected to live interaction.
The fact that we have only known life for a couple of decades doesn't mean that it has started with our birth. It was there long before - and all sorts of diseases were an intrinsic part of it, often being far more dangerous and lethal than COVID-19. Neither of them fundamentally changed the nature of humans as social beings. And COVID-19 won't do it either. Ask some of those who are working from home now whether they would like to spend the rest of their working lives like that (and also stay put on their vacations and days off, effectively limiting life to the space between the sofa and the grocery store). The vast majority of those I know are actually very much looking forward to returning to the office! Even those who absolutely loved working from home in the first month or two miss their social interactions now.
The UK is uniquely positioned in many aspects, with London being one of those global hubs of everything. Without aviation, it just cannot function in its present way that ensures its prosperity. Think about it, how many world capitals can boast the same number of global headquarters or the same diversity as London? Not many! So, there is and there will be a lot to fuel that need for travel. And did I mention that not many of these people would be content to not seeing their families abroad ever again or spending all holidays till the end of their lives in good old Cornwall? So, the market is there. It's a matter of time for things to calm down and it will reach and exceed its 2019 levels once again.
The fact that we have only known life for a couple of decades doesn't mean that it has started with our birth. It was there long before - and all sorts of diseases were an intrinsic part of it, often being far more dangerous and lethal than COVID-19. Neither of them fundamentally changed the nature of humans as social beings. And COVID-19 won't do it either. Ask some of those who are working from home now whether they would like to spend the rest of their working lives like that (and also stay put on their vacations and days off, effectively limiting life to the space between the sofa and the grocery store). The vast majority of those I know are actually very much looking forward to returning to the office! Even those who absolutely loved working from home in the first month or two miss their social interactions now.
The UK is uniquely positioned in many aspects, with London being one of those global hubs of everything. Without aviation, it just cannot function in its present way that ensures its prosperity. Think about it, how many world capitals can boast the same number of global headquarters or the same diversity as London? Not many! So, there is and there will be a lot to fuel that need for travel. And did I mention that not many of these people would be content to not seeing their families abroad ever again or spending all holidays till the end of their lives in good old Cornwall? So, the market is there. It's a matter of time for things to calm down and it will reach and exceed its 2019 levels once again.
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As others have said Face to Face contact will always be important, Zoom is the modern 'it' thing to be seen doing it won't last.
You sound exactly like the guy who said online shopping would never catch on back in the nineties
You sound exactly like the guy who said online shopping would never catch on back in the nineties
I am sure it will bounce back, may take some time and will be leaner and meaner (not that that is good for airline T's and C's sadly). One thing has stood out for me over the last decade or so: unfortunately (or fortunately?) the flying public are a bunch of total hypocrites when it comes to aspirations versus reality. The climate agenda has been climbing the headlines now for many years, and just as rapidly air travel has been expanding with ever greater numbers flying globally. A lot of people seem quite happy with that fact as long as no-one makes too much of a fuss about the contradiction. Even if Europe slows down temporarily, a whole lot of increasingly prosperous countries will be quite happy to take up the slack,
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You walk into a shop, buy your stuff and walk away. Unlike work where, on an average working day, you spend a good half of your time awake. So, making work devoid of live contact is incomparably more damaging to your social life and wellbeing, as compared to making shopping devoid of live contact. Being stuck alone in a room staring at a computer screen all day long is only fun for a short while.
Speaking numbers, the current number of flights within Europe is roughly 50% of 2019 levels. Even though, factually, we're in what Eurocontrol label as the pessimistic scenario (uncoordinated border control), this traffic number is in line with the optimistic, coordinated reopening scenario. Airlines have mostly worked out that not flying is cheaper than flying at a loss; ghost flights to keep slots are no longer a thing either. This suggests that most of these flights are operated on a cash-positive basis. So, even in dire times like now, there are still fair numbers of people wishing to travel. As soon as the current broad, knee-jerk restrictions are no longer a thing, it will only become better and better.
Speaking numbers, the current number of flights within Europe is roughly 50% of 2019 levels. Even though, factually, we're in what Eurocontrol label as the pessimistic scenario (uncoordinated border control), this traffic number is in line with the optimistic, coordinated reopening scenario. Airlines have mostly worked out that not flying is cheaper than flying at a loss; ghost flights to keep slots are no longer a thing either. This suggests that most of these flights are operated on a cash-positive basis. So, even in dire times like now, there are still fair numbers of people wishing to travel. As soon as the current broad, knee-jerk restrictions are no longer a thing, it will only become better and better.