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The Death of British Aviation

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The Death of British Aviation

Old 30th Aug 2020, 21:10
  #41 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: May 2003
Location: UK
Age: 53
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I am sure it will bounce back, may take some time and will be leaner and meaner (not that that is good for airline T's and C's sadly). One thing has stood out for me over the last decade or so: unfortunately (or fortunately?) the flying public are a bunch of total hypocrites when it comes to aspirations versus reality. The climate agenda has been climbing the headlines now for many years, and just as rapidly air travel has been expanding with ever greater numbers flying globally. A lot of people seem quite happy with that fact as long as no-one makes too much of a fuss about the contradiction. Even if Europe slows down temporarily, a whole lot of increasingly prosperous countries will be quite happy to take up the slack,
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Old 30th Aug 2020, 23:03
  #42 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Aug 2016
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You walk into a shop, buy your stuff and walk away. Unlike work where, on an average working day, you spend a good half of your time awake. So, making work devoid of live contact is incomparably more damaging to your social life and wellbeing, as compared to making shopping devoid of live contact. Being stuck alone in a room staring at a computer screen all day long is only fun for a short while.

Speaking numbers, the current number of flights within Europe is roughly 50% of 2019 levels. Even though, factually, we're in what Eurocontrol label as the pessimistic scenario (uncoordinated border control), this traffic number is in line with the optimistic, coordinated reopening scenario. Airlines have mostly worked out that not flying is cheaper than flying at a loss; ghost flights to keep slots are no longer a thing either. This suggests that most of these flights are operated on a cash-positive basis. So, even in dire times like now, there are still fair numbers of people wishing to travel. As soon as the current broad, knee-jerk restrictions are no longer a thing, it will only become better and better.
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Old 30th Aug 2020, 23:40
  #43 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Jan 2003
Location: Kelowna Wine Country
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Been saying it for ages. For those who say "we are living in a new world and it will never get back to 'normal.'"I always consider the absurd.

Did you, for the last few years' walk around in a mask because of the flu epidemic of 1918-1919? Did you even 'not' travel last year because of the H1N1 epidemic of just a few years ago?

We thought we travelled a lot when we were younger and our kids travel twice as much at the same age. Can't see them giving it up for long and MrsVJ is already saying "I'm just looking, I'm not booking anything, this doesn't mean we have to go."
Might as well get my bags packed!
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Old 31st Aug 2020, 04:20
  #44 (permalink)  
 
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Location: A little south of the "Black Sheep" brewery
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About the Zoom, Skype, whatever - two family members (separately) ended up working from home. Eventually they were 'screaming at the walls' wanting to get back into the office to be able to see people and get their jobs done better. Those things have their place, but they won't take over the world, people will still be travelling.

About the online shopping: yes, people will use it for the boring things like their boxes of cornflakes, bottles of washing liquid, loo rolls (!!) and the like. But as for the fresh stuff like meat, fruit and veges, etc., have you noticed the boom in business with butchers, vege shops and farm shops? As for the rest of online shopping, apparently that is causing somewhat of a boom for certain sectors of British Aviation.
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Old 31st Aug 2020, 07:35
  #45 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Aug 2020
Location: UK
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😂 So true. There seems to be a wilful disregard of technological and psychological progress - catalysed by COVID-19 - (where face2face vs remote working is concerned) on this thread.
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Old 31st Aug 2020, 07:57
  #46 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Mar 2006
Location: England
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The Death of British Aviation. - as we knew it.
Many of the points of view reflect the shock of change, having to confront a rapidly evolving and uncertain world. We dislike uncertainty and fear the inability to manage future situations.
We have had to manage and adapt previously - the old day job; the difference now is the nature and degree of uncertainty, and speed of change and thus adaptation.

First change the way we think about these issues "Ö start from the idea that there is no single way to identify a problemÖ"
'We are no longer architects of our future, we are the gardeners.'

http://www.demos.co.uk/files/Connect...ts_-_web-2.pdf
Sections 1 and 5
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Old 31st Aug 2020, 08:01
  #47 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Aug 2020
Location: UK
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Middle managers at Companies A, B, C can all crow about how much they’re now saving on travel.

Right now it seems like an obvious win because everyone’s grounded.

Until Company D decides to get on the plane, and poaches that big account. And suddenly, everyone’s back travelling again.

Maintaining relationships and taking honest feedback is crucial in big business.

Otherwise, watch your logos churn without giving a moments thought about you.

Business travel will be back, not immediately, but it’ll work itself out.[/QUOTE

You just don’t get it do you? Who pays for all these business seats? Look at the companies (outside aviation) that are doing very well and look at the ones who are doing poorly. The ones who are doing well on average) are ones that negate air travel (or any travel) save for direct delivery of goods and services. The ones that are doing poorly (on average) are the ‘traditional’ industries whom *traditionally* have had to fly people all over the place. I totally agree that you can’t beat face to face meetings - in some, mainly relationship driven interactions - but they are becoming fewer. As Jeff Bezos said, “Their margin is my opportunity.” meaning; in the digital world EVERYONE has to squeeze their margins and that means companies stopping non-ESSENTIAL travel. Yes, perhaps the head of a project for instance will fly out to win or ‘seal the deal’ based on a tonne of remote working by large teams, BUT he won’t be taking twenty people with him...they’ll join the meeting remotely, from home, worrying about the dog barking. This isn’t a binary issue, it is one of scale and those middle-managers crowing over savings will, in all likelihood, make the savings, smell the coffee, work from home in a non-traditional industry..or at least a traditional industry that has kept pace - adapted. So, British aviation WILL survive. It will, however, need to adapt to survive and that means taking this current crisis/opportunity by the scruff of its neck. You can always scale up later if the internet breaks and everyone feels the need to jump on a plane.
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Old 31st Aug 2020, 08:56
  #48 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Aug 2020
Location: UK
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As of 9th August 2020 9.6 million people from 1.2 million UK companies on furlough. (Ref. Statistica). UK businesses are about to make a good proportion of the flying business community redundant but are holding off while the government subsidises wages until the end of October. Middle-managers (crowing??) from company A, B & C are putting jobs over travel and company D is doing the same. This is all short term of course, perhaps the next 2 - 3 years while the economy corrects itself. The long term effect will be that people who hitherto believed in the sacrosanct nature of live face to face meetings will realise that so much more is possible working remotely...or they too will be phased out. I can see a rift developing in the business community right now and while the threat of redundancy looms - those embracing the future (survive and thrive) and those desperate to return to ‘normal’. To those who say that Zoom and Teams etc, etc, are not a viable alternative to (a great deal of) travel and face2face...beware...are you in the ‘desperate to get back to normal’ category? Watch what happens 30 days from the end of furlough...
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Old 31st Aug 2020, 12:25
  #49 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Feb 2018
Location: South West, UK
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The difference is online shopping is pure convenience, Take a look a facebook, twitter etc, all of them were popular 10 years ago, now it might be mainstream but it's not really considered 'cool' . Zoom might work for some things but other things it won't and travel will always be necessary. If you want to go an live a sad little world of never leaving your own house carry on, for the rest of us we want to get back to normal.
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Old 31st Aug 2020, 13:12
  #50 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Aug 2020
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Whoa! Cool your jets man. Yes, some platforms have had their day and get replaced...but I think Facebook and Twitter are okay for the time being. As for all the other platforms...they are getting smarter, faster, better every day. Believe me, I’m procuring their services on a grand scale and their time is NOW. Travel won’t end...those of us who embrace change will travel...on holiday...not for business so much. Hope your normal turns out okay for you.
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Old 31st Aug 2020, 13:16
  #51 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: I wouldn't know.
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I believe the question is not if flying will be necessary. The question remains how much flying and crucially for the full service carriers, in what booking classes.

What puzzled me about this whole issue is how different countries reacted to the Covid crisis and different sectors. Continental europe went to state aid quite rapidly and in very high amounts, Lufthansa for example has now received in excess of 12 billions of state aid from at least three different governments. Air France and Alitalia both receive quite a bit of help as well. And the british aviation sector? Not much help at all from the government. And even in the USA there were massive government interventions for the sector.
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Old 31st Aug 2020, 15:49
  #52 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Aug 2020
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Didn’t the pilots and cc of Lufthansa accept a 50% pay cut rapidly and BEFORE the government bailed them out with 12 Bn? Seems like they worked - as one - and presented a coherent proposition??
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Old 31st Aug 2020, 20:18
  #53 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Feb 2005
Location: London South
Posts: 10
We have jumped into the future

What we are seeing in UK and Global aviation is what perhaps would inevitably have transpired over a longer period of time. Covid-19 has sped up the pace of change to such an extent some people wonít be able to accept whatís happening.
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Old 31st Aug 2020, 21:29
  #54 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Mar 2001
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BallastBob

Not quite as much, well, no idea about the cabin crew to be honest. Pilots did give something, but not nearly as much as 50%, time limited until the end of september. After the bailout they added another three months (including a clause that makes it impossible for the company to fire anybody until three months afterwards with notice periods as long as 12 months). However, of course the german government helps quite a bit as Kurzarbeit (available to anybody with a german contract, so not only Lufthansa but also Ryanair and Easyjet) allows up to 20 months of reduced work and wage subsidy up to 87% (from month 7 on and with kids) of up to €6.900 gross, but as far as i know Lufty tops that up to full pay.

Anyway, still surprised that the british government only offered a normal business rate loan capped at 600m (iirc).
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Old 1st Sep 2020, 09:08
  #55 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Nov 2019
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If you want to go an live a sad little world of never leaving your own house carry on, for the rest of us we want to get back to normal.
I know times are tough, but why get personal? I made no subjective comment...just a simple observation with a very simple implied message. Progress bites the bottom of those that decry it. Increased online activity is an undeniable fact, Covid may or may not accelerate that dynamic...that's an arguable opinion. The effect it will have on air travel (specifically business travel) has yet to be determined. But one must be very heavily infected with a spectacular dose of cognitive bias to suggest that "its just a phase, don't worry it will pass". Progress tends not to work like that. Fair enough perhaps the retail example is too simplistic...how about the General who didn't like tanks because they scared horses??? Here's a link to loads of similar...knock yourself out

https://www.freecodecamp.org/news/wo...-c18654211375/

Incidentally, I'm 63, what I think of the future (of aviation or anything else) is of no consequence. The future belongs to people who are currently in school.
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Old 1st Sep 2020, 11:04
  #56 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Sep 2007
Location: A little south of the "Black Sheep" brewery
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Regarding all those failed predictions, I clearly remember the predictions decades ago that TV was going to cause the imminent collapse of the cinema. This horrible virus is having a terrible effect on all forms of theatre but once social mixing is safe again, I can see the 'sociability' side of all forms of theatre helping them to make a comeback - including cinema.

Many companies will find remote ways of working. However, I feel I can safely predict that when the first company puts someone on an aeroplane to meet a potential customer face-to-face and as a result of that personal contact walks away with a whole lot of contracts taken from those companies that had 'hovelled away' into their 'remote contact only because it is saving us money on air travel' policies, you will find a huge increase in business air travel.

People are going to get fed up with staring in isolation at their TV screens. They are going to want to get out and see sports matches for real again, go on holiday abroad again, meet family and friends again. And to do that they need to travel, small bits to start with like down to the local football club but soon after that will spread like going to the other side of the world to follow The Ashes live. It will come back, and with the frustration at being cooped up at home that I am hearing personally from so many people (more the youngsters than the old folk), expect it to come back with a vengeance! Brits like to travel and that will be good for British Aviation. (But I am not hearing anything here on the benefits that 'online buying' is already bring to British Aviation - how do 'things' get to places??)
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Old 2nd Sep 2020, 12:00
  #57 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Jan 2009
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BallastBob

Reading your posts, I don't really understand what you're thinking. Do you think that the number of Aeroplanes flying will be reduced in the years after Covid is eliminated? or do you think that business class travel will be reduced?

If you're thinking that the number of Aeroplanes flying will be reduced then I'd say that you're believing what the Saudi's believed regarding US oil in 2015. They seemed to think that if you put the fracking companies out of business, the oil would stop coming out of the ground. That is of course not true.

The same applies here, you have 10,000 plus Aeroplanes, less than 10 years old, worth between $100m and $300m, sitting on the ground. While the companies which have been operating these Aircraft may well become insolvent and creditors may well take control. Leasing companies may take their aircraft back. These Assets are worth $0 to anyone if they're not flying. Therefore the value of the assets will be written off down to the level that gets them flying again. 50%-60% of your Airline ticket price is the capital cost of the aircraft. Throw in a few years of cheap fuel and cheap crews, as soon as travel becomes legal again and fear is removed,your ticket from London to Sydney will be cheaper than your national express bus from Newcastle to Heathrow. The flights will be full. Maybe the Business travellers will be fewer?
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Old 2nd Sep 2020, 14:23
  #58 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Aug 2016
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Trossie, excellent point about the cinemas. On a similar note, how come that restaurants didn't close down as soon as food delivery services became a thing? Why doesn't everyone just order food online and eat at home instead of meeting up with friends for a meal? Because staying at home 24/7/365 and fencing yourself off from the rest of the world is in no way desirable to anyone in their right mind. People want to go places, explore, socialise - and no technology can deprive them of the desire to do so. It's for a good reason that imprisonment is used as a punishment and not as a reward - the idea of being locked up in a room and isolated from the outside world is not appealing to anyone.

Does anyone think that "generation Instagram" will trade their outings to Ibiza, Dubrovnik or Sunny Beach for staying put or going for local holidays only? Or that they won't take the chance to personally visit their business partners in New York instead of limiting all interactions to Zoom calls? Doesn't look even remotely likely. Those in whose hands is the future take mobility for granted. Demand will be there - the only question is about which brands will be there to meet it in a couple of years and what exactly their service will look like.
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Old 2nd Sep 2020, 15:07
  #59 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Aug 2020
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polax52

My thinking; we are on the cusp of the biggest customer revolution the aviation industry has seen. I can not fault your analysis above at all - I think you are spot on. My only point is regarding business class customers and the fact that much commentary has been about how it will all get back to normal pretty quickly. From a business point of view there are factors that affect aviation and may well affect aviation permanently. The business community has been forced into home-working for instance and it turns out that something that could never happen is now (often, but not always) the preference of said businessman or business woman. Similarly, remote working is now proving to be less of a problem than everyone thought. (Who thought my GP (of advanced years) would be offering me telephone or face2face remote consultations? If (parts of) the behemoth that is the NHS can make the change then the comparatively agile private business sector can and will too...does anyone think GPs will go face2face-appointment first ever again, even after Covid has abated?). It (remote working) won’t entirely replace live face to face meetings but they will be minimised to the essential travel to win/retain the business. It is NOT about cost savings at its core (although short-term cost savings have to be made to retain some of those 9.6 million furloughed employees in a much shrunken economy), it is about enhanced service, time-efficiency, employees health and well-being and yes, eco-sustainability (which is increasingly a factor in winning competitive tenders by the way). There will still be a lot of travel (perhaps very cheap travel too) but aviation does not exist in a bubble and trends within other industries will have their effect. Let’s look at the alternative as you describe: Aviation goes through the wringer over the next year or so and pops out the other side ultra-efficient with tickets at super-low prices. Will the business community all start jumping on planes? Absolutely not...why would they...they are working differently now. Will we all enjoy more holidays? Quite possibly (hopefully!). What will the net effect be? Who knows? One thing for sure; back to normal can’t and should NOT be an option - the winners will be the ones who take this massive opportunity and run with it. Sure, I understand the hankering (especially if you are an employee of a large and established carrier) to go back to the good old days (of only the beginning of this year..).
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Old 2nd Sep 2020, 21:56
  #60 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Jan 2009
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Originally Posted by BallastBob View Post
My thinking; we are on the cusp of the biggest customer revolution the aviation industry has seen. I can not fault your analysis above at all - I think you are spot on. My only point is regarding business class customers and the fact that much commentary has been about how it will all get back to normal pretty quickly. From a business point of view there are factors that affect aviation and may well affect aviation permanently. The business community has been forced into home-working for instance and it turns out that something that could never happen is now (often, but not always) the preference of said businessman or business woman. Similarly, remote working is now proving to be less of a problem than everyone thought. (Who thought my GP (of advanced years) would be offering me telephone or face2face remote consultations? If (parts of) the behemoth that is the NHS can make the change then the comparatively agile private business sector can and will too...does anyone think GPs will go face2face-appointment first ever again, even after Covid has abated?). It (remote working) wonít entirely replace live face to face meetings but they will be minimised to the essential travel to win/retain the business. It is NOT about cost savings at its core (although short-term cost savings have to be made to retain some of those 9.6 million furloughed employees in a much shrunken economy), it is about enhanced service, time-efficiency, employees health and well-being and yes, eco-sustainability (which is increasingly a factor in winning competitive tenders by the way). There will still be a lot of travel (perhaps very cheap travel too) but aviation does not exist in a bubble and trends within other industries will have their effect. Letís look at the alternative as you describe: Aviation goes through the wringer over the next year or so and pops out the other side ultra-efficient with tickets at super-low prices. Will the business community all start jumping on planes? Absolutely not...why would they...they are working differently now. Will we all enjoy more holidays? Quite possibly (hopefully!). What will the net effect be? Who knows? One thing for sure; back to normal canít and should NOT be an option - the winners will be the ones who take this massive opportunity and run with it. Sure, I understand the hankering (especially if you are an employee of a large and established carrier) to go back to the good old days (of only the beginning of this year..).
Regarding business travel, none of us really know how much will be lost. There are many different reasons people travel in premium classes, they may be sportsmen, Journalists covering sporting events or any entourage. We also return people to their home country's who have medical conditions and whose insurance is covering the expense. Many different worldwide conferences (which will not go online). We carry diplomats and other government officials. Many general passengers travelling for personal reasons who wish to spend on the comfort of a premium class seat. The list goes on and on. As a result of Covid the premium class seats will become more affordable whilst many in the community will be more able to afford those seats (rightly or wrongly, some industries and shareholders have done very well).

Secondly, I believe that you were referring to the Environmentalist issues. If this is a concern to you then I agree. However, the Aviation industry is not the place to start, it is the place to finish.To many it is the easiest polluter to attack because it doesn't effect the lives of the majority of activists in the environmental lobby. In reality people do want to travel, they always have and they always will, it brings people together and makes for a more peaceful world. The reason for not starting with Aviation is that the technology does not YET exist to run Aircraft completely emission free but progress toward that goal is being made very rapidly, aircraft are a full 5 times more efficient than they were 50 years ago. In the meantime it would be sensible to target emissions from Cars, Electrical power Generation, and Factories where the technology does already exist to eliminate emissions. The 2-4% generated by Aircraft will be gone within the next 30 years.
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