What will it really mean for us?
 

If, as is looking increasingly likely, Bush heads for a sortie into Iraq, what will it mean for all us Wannabes out there? Will it put us back to where we were 11 months ago or even further?

Very difficult to say. Something of the scale of Gulf War One could see long haul pax drop in the order of a fifth with shorthaul about a tenth.

Which would really hurt nearly all airlines.

WWW

This would obviously be an unwelcome development from a Wannabe's (or Wannastillbe's) point of view, however, this action - and we still don't know there will be any for sure - has been very well telegraphed, and therefore certainly won't come as a shock to the pax like 9-11 or the Gulf War.

For this reason, perhaps we'll be lucky and the inevitable lull in the industry won't be as bad as is frequently suggested.