Ignore the pessimists and get training ASAP!

Polax is realistic. It's time to ignore misinformation.
In some countries 90% of Pilots are currently unemployed. You tell me how long it will take to absorb those guy's before Cadets are considered?

Let's not waste good money on flight training until the right time.

Agree, although Polax may be describing the American recruiting market in the 1990s, in the UK at least it was lively. By '92 the airlines were so short of pilots that people were being offered airline jobs on the basis of a booked IR test! In fact the bottleneck became the good old CAA who were unable to test people fast enough and many pilots completed their IR course, booked a test some months later (you couldn't book until you had passed a 170A 'pre-test' flight), and then had do expensive refresher flying before the test. By the last half of the '90s Easyjet and others were desperate for pilots - a boon for many Ozmates with thousands of hours on small piston twins and no prospect of a jet job back home, who suddenly discovered v useful English grandparents. They are here still.

Do you think it's still too early to start an 18-month ATPL now?

@Imck95: Well I believe that if all restrictions get thrown in the recycle bin and just like Spain other places say the covid is endemic and then by the summer everything works as before then there should be no reason for people not starting to travel just like they did before the pandemic.

In business its always best to buy stuff when the crisis is at its peak (or bottom as it can also be called) since its cheapest then. Since when the crisis is gone and people fly just as much as they did before the pandemic then absolutely all the pilots needed before will be needed again. From this equation one can subtract all the pilots who finished their careers (people do not stop getting older because there is a pandemic also some resigned), then probably much fewer new ones have been trained than before and when the good times come back there will again be a growth in the airline industry. So who will get a better chance? Someone who is ready for the start of the good times when there are almost 0 fresh pilots or someone who start their training when the good times come back and come seeking for a job 2 years later together with the 1000s of people who all had the same idea and waited to start their training for the moment when good times are back?

As with everything its always a risk, but buy at the bottom and sell at the top tend to work more often than buy at the top :}

agree with the comments made from KT, there will always be a reason not start training however if you are serious and have the means go for it! I am starting on MPL programme later in summer this year and I know it is a risk, however it is a risk I am willing to accept.

@rj2208: Well MPL program is it not connected to a specific airline? I would think the risk intensify compared to frozen ATPL that give someone a chance not only with a specific airline.

yes you are right, the MPL programme is tagged to airline and should they go bust due to covid or any other reason than your money has essentially gone down the drain! The risk intensifies a lot but also pays off as it is the quickest way of getting into a right hand seat in given circumstance, although this will improve over time. MPL licence can be unlocked to ATPL at 1500hrs so at the end it will all be the same as long as the airline doesn’t go bust or they fire you. Hope this helps!

@rj2208: I know how MPL work but thought maybe they made whitetail one now since its kind of strange that any airline at the moment offer a secure spot. I find it kind of strange from the "I like to fly" perspective with so much less hours spent flying during the training and also it kind of prevent you from applying to other airlines and flying jobs if the airline change their mind and can not deliver the job. But yes if it works its probably the fastest way to the FO position.

Not too early probably going down the Modular route. Optimistic signs include Spain saying kids no longer need to be jabbed up to the eyeballs to travel. Simon Calder Twitter feed refers.

FTE Jerez have recently completed a MPL course which was paused due Covid.
Their website has the details.
MPL is firmly attached to an airline as students are selected by them; their SOPs are used during the simulator phases.
Ideally any contract would have a plan B that in the event due Force Majeure, no additional costs for conversion to the standard CPL/IR (fATPL) route. This was historically in CTC contracts before a change of ownership occurred.

Considering the one-way nature of time, if you can afford it, it's never too early to start training.

​​​​​Personally I think unless there is a firm job offer, choosing to do an MPL or Integrated fATPL should be grounds for losing your medical based on demonstrated cognitive deficiency, but that's just me.

@rudestuff: I do also find integrated programs without job guarantee to be something really risky, first of all you pay the cost of modular training + almost a used private aircraft cost. But what is worse is no control over the training. Imagine people who were in integrated training when the pandemic started well they had to finish eitherway. Modular you can just wait the only thing speeding you up is the atpl theory exams validity but its 3 years from the last exam.

So personally I will have to finish ME/IR and CPL(A) before July this year but if I went for integrated I would be finished in 2020... and would have no option of being FI(A) or doing some IR flying for IRI etc. itd. or would have to do it at some completely other school than the one with integrated program. So kind of much less risk with modular route and if someone need help with theory or whatever well then private teacher wont even cost 10 000 euro for like 100s of hours of private exam and theory training.

So this sounds almost true and not exaggerated:

Choosing the MCC/APS provider is a critical choice depending on your aspirations…

@parkfell: Before the pandemic disaster I was planning on doing the VA APS MCC Ryanair mentored program (hoping for the Polish bases) but since the pandemic screwed everything then I decided I will wait with the last part for the beginning of the good times (it does not take long) when there will again be a lot of spots and fewest ready fresh pilots (since most people will be starting their training, while others will have a lot of catch up stuff to do before being redy like renewing stuff). Meanwhile I believe I will do some FI(A) stuff or burn some holes in the sky doing IR flights for 200 hours to be IRI. Also its possible to train with airline instructors privately on the sims used by Enter Air or by LOT for assessments in case something opens almost only for Polish pilots (there are not as many fresh ones as in western Europe waiting for the spot).

Eitherway I believe the most important thing is to be able to regard flying as a hobby (including the whole training etc.) and not as income source at least until being hired by an airline. That way it will not be a life breaking event/failure to not get an airline job but an epic adventure and fun of flying during the training or during renewals etc. itd. or being a FI. And who knows what future brings if you are ready when you are needed the chance may always come suddenly. But if someone take debt for training or have nothing to live of (job or investment) then the risk is enormous.

Given the uncertainty of the market, it has been previously suggested to undertake the IR training & test on a single engined ac for CPL/IR licence issue. When the ‘crest of the wave’ is imminent, upgrade the IR to multi engine followed promptly by the MCC/APS & hit the ground running.
This would avoid light ac currency issues unless of course your timing is based on a less than opaque crystal ball…

@parkfell: Well it depends on what people have already bought in advance. It sounds good if someone does not already have prebought ME/IR (or there is no complex SEP(L) available for the CPL part) from before the pandemic. Eitherway being an FI or doing some SE IR timebuilding for fun or possible IRI (200h) should keep from forgetting how to fly.

The issue with a single engine CPL/IR license is that it isn't that much cheaper than a multi-engine one. Yes, it does give you a decent amount of recency if you later go onto do it ME which a lot of airlines look for, but the overall cost is going to be notably higher unless parkfell knows more than what I have seen related to costs.


The market is still in an incredible state of flux. Nobody can say with certainty how much demand there'll be next month, never mind in 18, 24 or 48 months' time. That said, I don't think now is a bad time to start as long as you give yourself flexibility (i.e. go modular).
I don't agree with some of the comments above (especially the one referring to 2026 and the one about all airlines getting rid of recruitment staff for the foreseeable* which were both made last year).
Some airlines will always go for cadets as they are far more profitable for the airline. You can't just say that because there are hundreds of unemployed FOs each with a couple of thousand hours in one country that cadets with the bare minimum will never be hired in another country. That's just not how it works.
Then you have the effect of people being sucked upwards/ onwards as the Middle Eastern and national carriers start hiring. We've already seen it start to happen. That creates a vacuum at other airlines which needs to be filled.
Since 2020 a lot of pilots have retired or moved on and simply won't come back (as sad as that sounds).
Obviously the current situation isn't all rosy, but it is hardly end of the Earth style doom and gloom either.

Might doing most of your commercial fight training in the USA, UK CAA CPL/MEP with FAA IR(SE), then return for UK CAA CB/IR (A) followed by MCC.
The critical aspect is ‘hitting the ground running’ prior to any airline interview/sim ride.
Even if wholly trained in the UK you need to consider being ‘current’ with a shiny new MCC/APS certificate.

Even just 28 days since the last training event will reduce the ‘ideal sharpness’ needed. A top up would be advisable?
As ever, a personal choice depending upon your circumstances.

I don't know how you came up with this. An SEIR costs a fraction of what an MEIR does.

Let's say you have very poor advice, so you get your CPL then MEIR, which a lot of people do. That MEIR is going to cost you £10k+ because you have to fly 30 hours SIM and 15 hours MEP. The kick in the teeth is that the flight school will convince you that you're saving money in the simulator.

If you decided to get an SEIR at some point during your hour building before CPL, then you could do all the IR training in the aircraft you are already hour building in. The total cost for that IR would be the cost of 40 hours instruction plus any aircraft upgrade. Cost: £2-3k.

Cons:

You'll have to 'upgrade' to an MEIR at some point. But the 'add-on' course only requires 5 MEP hours rather than 15.
You'll have to do 2 IR tests. So what? You'll be doing 2 a year for the rest of your career.
You won't have any/much SIM time. Not really a problem 40 hours is more than enough to get an IR
​​​
The advantages of an SEIR for anyone flight training in the current climate are:

1) It 'saves' the ATPL exams for minimal cost.
2) It puts you within 6 weeks of the finish line (MCC)
3) It adds a gloss of recency to your CV - the things airlines actually care about (MEIR and MCC) will be brand new.

So you are basing the SE-IR being cheaper by counting it as a part of the hour building? Surely they won't be PIC hours if that is the case?. I also think a lot of people do hour building in aircraft that are not certified for IR flying due to cost.

That certainly isn't a path well tread either. You're right that for most people, it would doing a non-integrated course it would be hour building, then the CPL/ME-IR and then straight to the MCC/APS. It'd be interesting to see more information online from anyone who had done it. I had a bit of a Google and couldn't find anything.

I am definitely intrigued by this just costing £2-£3k more than the basic hour building price though.
I think your three advantages are very real too.