Is it a good time to start pilot training right now?
 

Hello Everyone,

I'm Beginning this new thread due to need some help basically I have just turned 20 last month. I have a PPL in my pocked with plenty of savings which will enable me to get a fATPL. I have decided I will go modular.

Is it good to start pilot training right now?

Thanks for advice. :ok:

There is no such thing as a good time to start the training. Let's suppose you start now, and right now the aviation industry is booming. It doesn't mean that in 1~2 years when you finish your training, it will be the same. Start the training if you really want to pursue the career, don't think about the right time, in fact, the right time is whenever you have means to do it, regardless the current market situation.

If you have a PPL, you may as well book an ATPL distance learning course and get those exams passed. It's a few grand in the big scheme of things, but it's also the biggest hurdle, licencing-wise. If the market is booming when you've got 14 passes then you're only 3 months away from a CPL/IR.

Hi David97,

As gob11 mentioned, there is no "good" time.

When I started along my path in '99, times were relatively good. I was in a position in late 2001 to get my first job and times were still good as I sent out resumes. That all changed in the matter of a couple of minutes on September 11th and the deflated industry continued for a number of years. What would have been flying job offers in August and early September were ramp job offers from late September, if offers were even given.

In a similar way, the industry can be deflated for years and then in the space of a week or two airlines are hiring tens to hundreds of pilots.

A seven-year cycle is what I'd always been told, and 17 years in I see that this stays relatively true: seven "good" years followed by seven "deflated" years.

Now is a great time to finish training. No telling when there is a good time to start training :)

How many years lasting of this "good cycle"? :)

The other dynamic is that in previous down cycles... you had pilots who were on legacy contracts with good pay and conditions. Who might have either been protected or had room for trimming when terms get downgraded for business survival.

These days... I'd expect the number of good contracts to be thin on the ground. Therefore those near the end if careers may not tolerate any more trimming. This creates more leavers and more new spots.

In addition. I notice a change in industry and transport practace in relation to smaller more regional routes. More planes, more flights = more pilots... also equals possibly even lower pay.

All feeds into the crystal ball..... also.note that CAO and other flight schools are looking for instructors which tells me that the guys are getting snapped up. Yet the schools are only looking for freelance replacements due to the lack of numbers per month on the big courses.

Plus the CAA have been issuing less cpl's year in year for the past few... and airline plane orders are at a high.

Can we really expect any industry to continue on cycles established decades ago with vastly different pressure and drivers. Can we rely in a 7 year cycle anymore.

I think are good times, if you are a Captain with experience; and low hours ?

Yep, that's about right.

1990 - Job market collapsed due to Gulf War 1

+11 years

2001 - Job market collapsed due to the 9/11 terrorist attacks

+7 years

2008 - Job market collapsed due to global financial crash

+9 years = 2017 . . .

Predicting the industry's ups and downs isn't an exact science, and the intervals vary, but there is no doubt that the job market for pilots is highly cyclical. No-one knows when the next downturn will come, but my gut feeling is that it's not far off. It just needs a trigger; Brexit / recession / terrorist spectacular / El Presidente Trump nuking someone for dissing him on twitter? Take your pick.

If you are cautious (and IMHO you're right to be) then just carry on with the hours building and ATPLs. Unless it's changed you'll have 3 years from passing the last ATPL exam to complete the IR, which gives you time to see out the worst of any downturn - even if the industry collapsed on the day you get your exam results. As has been noted, with the exam credits in your pocket you could complete the CPL/IR in just 3 months. At a time of your choosing. The word is flexibility.

Any commercial flight training is a calculated risk, but committing to an integrated course is a bigger financial risk, as well as taking a punt on the job market further down the road. Don't expect the likes of Oxford or FTE to slow down your training schedule just because there are no jobs...

(And by the way, as a 20 year-old time is very much on your side. There is no screaming urgency to qualify - I passed my IR and got my first airline job in my mid-thirties).

So you have your PPL ~ well done
Start doing your groundschool now.. Full time on a CTC course takes about 6 months.

Not wishing to be a prophet of doom, but North Korea is either going to go the full hog with the start of WW3, or he will see the light. Crystal ball time.......

So start the groundschool, which is the cheaper phase, and reassess the situation once the 14 exams are successfully complete.

So, my glass is half full, but I think you can see where I am coming from.......

I started to see the market place in action when Gulf War one kicked off........

No doubt PACO will chip in

Funny how he shut up when Mr Trump threatened to turn his country into a parking lot... :) Somehow I don't think it would have had quite the same effect coming from Mrs Clinton.

Indeed - get going on the studying! :) I believe the average age of the Indian population is very young, and they will all want holidays, etc. Then there's China.

Nobody knows what tomorrow holds and there are no guarantees in life never mind flying training.

Saying that, the airline industry is making up for lost years in terms of recruitment. There was 911, Afghanistan, Iraq, 2008 economic recession and as a result there was very little recruitment. Now that the airlines are expanding and have the cash they are recruiting a lot more.

However, one airline that recruited constantly through the recession was Ryanair, they ran pilot assessments weekly and still do to this day. At the minute they are training 800 cadets a year, something which will increase as they have a/c orders on their books up until 2024 and are aiming to have 1000 a/c by 2030. I would hesitate to say that there is a looming pilot shortage, but the LCCs are big beasts that need fed and will certainly create a lot more pilot positions than would have been available a few years/decades ago.

"There was 911, Afghanistan, Iraq, 2008 economic recession and as a result there was very little recruitment. Now that the airlines are expanding and have the cash they are recruiting a lot more."

You can take that further back to when Air Europe was around - the lack of pilots then has been masked by similar activity and has never really gone away.

We advise taking things one at a time. If your destiny involves being a pilot, then it will be, but you won't get there without a licence. Concentrate on that first then let the cards fall where they may.

Then there is Helicopters , which are going through the worse I've seen in years , people are just cutting each other throat , with lowering of cost per hour to win contracts ....Race to the bottom

I always thought that for helicopter pilots it was very easy to find a job (since is a very expensive training and not too much people can do it).

Anyway, and without the intention to offend anybody, there seems to be some people who has a very catastrophic point of view of aviation. I won't say it's great but come on...

Helicopters are indeed flat as a pancake right now, as the N Sea is dead in the water. But crop dusting is lively, so I hear, and there are a lot of people freelancing.

Is there any sign of a change in helicopter employment or is it really still very bad? Crop dusting doesn't sound great!

Not really until the N Sea picks up, but one consideration is that just because people have hours and IRs, it doesn't necessarily make them good people persons, very important for charter/corporate work. I know a few who are freelancing for several companies, so there is stuff out there - networking is the key.