:} Indeed. Oh well, the wooden hills beckon. I hate earlies. :}

Doncha mean "the wooden hill beckons"?:eek:

http://imgs.xkcd.com/comics/effect_an_effect.png

:) Doncha mean "don't you.."? Doh!

Oh this is just getting out of hand now......:}

Like the cartoon by the way.

I WANT TO GO HOME :uhoh:

What is wrong with mistake's?

:E

Mr Shankly, I have to disagree with your assertion that this thread had potential. It's (sadly) a replica of many that have gone before it in that it was started by someone (who I have some sympathy for but not for the obvious reasons) who didn't think it through and is now facing pay-back of the loan day without the job the flying school promised them. It won't be the last either and in the current climate I think we can expect more than usual.

It had nowhere to go because there are really only three responses to the OP's question which PPRuNe history shows are a) 'Serves you right', b) 'I sympathise' and c) 'You carn't spel mate innit?'. Doomed from the off and we could just as easily have searched out an old thread and read that.

Re: Ronand
 

In this case considering the fact that Canada would cost me upto $36,000 I would just prefer to stick to a flying school in South Africa as they informed me that it will cost me $25,000 (PPL,CPL,Multi, IR). There is no really no need spending much for it in Canada cos u really cannot tell of getting a job immediately you graduate. I have to save at least $11,000 which will do for my FI course and type rating as well on the boeing. What do you suggest Ronand? I am in a critical confused state of mind. Canada or South Africa where do you advise me mates?

Verbal reasoning and size of vocabulary are amongst the more powerful predictors of pilot aptitude.

I have a degree in Psychometric testing, did this as my dissertation study and point to the fact that most pilot selection tests use the measures.

Interpreting the MEL is often a much more demanding part of my day than the 38kt crosswind landing.. But its not that. Its a correlation with something else that verbal reasoning and vocabulary measures relate to.


Text speak is acceptable on forum like this. But you're dumb to use it and sophisticated to avoid it.

It's not if we don't understand it. :}

one thing is for sure..... it ain't the prestigious career anymore. :(

Well I think that the situation that with fATPL you sit without the job is nothing extraordinary. Let take a look at any profession - economist (accrding to a data of statistics, they form most part of unemployment in their own profession), financists, MBA, etc, etc... All of them heve to spend up to 10 years before they get a good job in they profession. I don't think pilots are exception. Only difference is that the training is very costly. I am going to start integrated in FTE this year and I believe that this will be most exicting part in the very hard way to the jet pilot career. Do not know is it worth it but dont want to regret that I have'nt even tried. Talking about the expences - I think that cost of training forms only 70% from ability to take a F/O seat in a jet.

Flinty I think you could be right. I thought the thread may provide some useful counterbalance from those at the training/graduated coalface, to those who are determined to start training and "pursue the dream" etc...

And not really from the point that "my flight school messed me around", hell that can be life generally sometimes unfortunately, but more from guys who have invested in their training and are now coping as best they can. With a range of lads out there, some of whom are amazed at the lack of aviation jobs, to the guys who have wisely made a plan B for themselves, I thought the discussion might have opened up a bit.

Alas, it went down the option C road.

:yuk:

Basing your perception of your colleagues on a load of tripe posted on an anonymous internet forum? :confused:

Never mind the fact that you're spelling is atrocious. :p

Keep doing things like that, joke or otherwise, and it'll stick.

Back on topic, can anyone really say they can see the airline industry expanding within the next 10 years? I just can't. How can anyone afford to maintain their loan and maintain their licence and ratings at the same time whilst things recover? The loan costs £1200 a month after tax, the maintainance of the licence and ratings, averaging the cost of IR renewal across the year and doing an hour a month, is costing £250 a month and for how long? I feel like I am throwing my life away for the sake of this bloody job. It has dumped on me at every chance and I have tried my ar*e off with it - 400 hours on a 737 gets you nothing even though it has been earned and not paid for. I appreciate it is dreadful everywhere but this looks set to stay this way (within the airline industry) for a long, long time. This is very different to before, there are relatively more aircraft and airliners per head in the UK than ever before, the country is spiralling towards much, much more debt, relatively speaking, than ever before. Even phoning flying clubs and enquiring about FI jobs one receives a sullen and curt 'NO' and then silence. It is such a worry. It's going to take a huge success else where to get myself, and anyone else in the same position as me, out of this one.

Can any long standing airline pilot out there really say they have seen this before and it will improve - I just can't see it happening within a damage limiting, affordable timescale. Is it really worth maintaining this bloody thankless licence?

And before anyone questions my love of flying, I genuinely love it more than I can possibly describe. Maybe I lust after it rather than love it and we all know what happens when you do that with a girl that's not interested - they cheat on you, financially rape you and then dump you - much like it seems flying is doing right now.

I guess I am just having one of those bad days where you feel bored, frustrated and worried. So many knock backs......I have to keep reminding myself that kites fly highest in the wind.

Beak, to answer your questions. Yes we have seen the upside and downside of economic cycles over the years. I have seen a few in the three decades that I have been working in this role and in this industry. The use of the term "cycle" would tend to imply a measurable quantity, but in fact there are so many variables in the dynamic that it is impossible to predict the duration of these events with any degree of accuracy, or even to predict the spot location in the cycle.

There are however a number of other contributory factors, that I haven't seen in the last 30 years that are very relevant to todays market, and to some extent you have touched on them yourself! I have brought these factors to the attention of my replies in a few other threads, but nobody seems to want to take much notice.

Firstly, it is only in the relatively recent past that there was any real perception that pilots with barely a week full of hours, would stand any realistic prospect of an airline job. There was always an element of specific tailored training that provided a small number of candidates entry into small schemes within the largest operators. However this has now mutated and burgeoned into an industry whereby the "job" isn't a job any more, it is part of the training process. This has had the effect of distorting the pilot job market, such that opportunities for experienced career changers or advancers ( ex-instructors/ Air taxi / third level operators and military pilots,) have been curtailed by the fact that these F/O positions, are no longer jobs. They are part of a pay to fly process.

In theory at least, and all other things being equal, that turnover of pay to fly "wannabes" should eventual churn into a stream of paid employees, to occupy the right hand seat positions left vacant by promotions to Captain. However that has been distorted by the next observation.

Secondly, over the last few years there has been a significant change in the mandatory retirement age for pilots (notably in the left seat) to age 65! In some cases this has allowed pilots to extend their working lives by a further 10 years. When you realize that these 55 year olds are at the top of their careers, usually on (and even drawing) healthy final salary pensions, as well as enjoying the best surviving conditions in the industry, you will understand why so many no longer wish to retire. Coupled with present recession, many will also feel they can no longer afford to. Notwithstanding the higher proportional attrition rate within this 55-65 age group, it has in reality given the industry a 10 year breathing space. This had undoubtably had a significant downward pressure on pilot demand and all but killed it in the lower stratus. A large number of airlines have taken advantage of this situation to completely re-write their terms and conditions for new entrants. If you don't think so, then just take a look at what is happening in those companies that you would aspire to work for.

Thirdly, what pink floyd referred to as High fidelity First Class Travelling, is shrinking at an exponential rate. No more credit for top price brand labels. Discretionary First class/Club class travel is being replaced by the more trendy if less comfortable lo-cost chic. Many top tier carriers relied on this market for their profits. Having seen their futures threatened by its demise ( and the demise of all the specialist premium class operators,) they are now looking to the back end of the aircraft, and to the bread and butter, bucket and spade markets enjoyed by the previously flourishing Lo-Co airlines, and charter airlines, that they were previously happy to ignore. All these big fish are getting hungry and the resources are getting scarcer.

Put all these things together and you have a situation that I haven't ever seen before. A 10 year moratorium on normal demand for captains, a market distortion at the entry level caused by the sale of the First Officers seat to a plentiful and willing supply, and then a severe recession in the global economy.

I don't know any more than anybody else does, how these things will eventually translate themselves into the real world or wider economy, but they are things I haven't witnessed before and the end result will certainly be at best interesting!

Bealzebub, thanks very much for your time taken for the response. It's a chain of events that leads to a crash and I am starting to feel like the holes in the Swiss cheese model are lining up! As you say Lo Cos, retirement ages, pay to flys and the recession (depression) are leading to a very difficult and brand new situation for alot of us. Hopefully a bit of situational awareness will save the day i.e. don't bury your head in the sand and believe that this will all blow over in a few years.

Do I understand wright...?
 

Do I understand wright that F/O seat is (or will be in near future, or has a tendency to become) not paid by employer, but by employee?

Yeas, U shure do unstudant wright!

what is the interval of possible hour (or measured in any other way) cost?

Guy's can we quit all this spelling bolleaux. Ever thought that people might be able to spell, but are not too good a typing ?. I chose to be a pilot, not a secretary so my typing skills are not that good (although looking at what some p/a's get paid, they earn more than a lot of pilots !!), but I can spell pretty well and not too bad at flying either. Combined with using a netbook with only a 75% size keyboard means that sometimes my fingers hit the wrong buttons - ever thought some people might even be posting from mobile phones with even smaller keyboards, or might not have English as a first language ?.

Most people also come on here for a bit of R&R, to get away from all the b/s rules and regs we deal with on a daily basis, and shouldn't then have to deal with the spelling police who have nothing better to do with their time.

My CV's and job applications are all checked and double checked, as they are important documents, writing on here isn't.

GET OVER IT !!.


:mad: