Airline career not the way to go if you aim for a long-term job?
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V6G,
Your third point is utter garbage. You take a tally of people who are willing to travel on a pilotless aircraft versus those who are not. I conducted a greatly flawed survey down the pub one night - it's simple, nobody will do it. Everything else you've written is a pretty good prediction however!
Kind Regards, A
Your third point is utter garbage. You take a tally of people who are willing to travel on a pilotless aircraft versus those who are not. I conducted a greatly flawed survey down the pub one night - it's simple, nobody will do it. Everything else you've written is a pretty good prediction however!
Kind Regards, A
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Regulatory authorities are recognizing that pilots no longer need such thorough training with the advent of the MPL.
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In my oppinion... The number 1 priority for oil should be aviation. Cars can suffer the 'extra' weight of batteries.
Although, I still have nothing against anyone who wants a petrol car for a hobby. In the future of course...
When Electric/Hydrogen/(other) have taken to the skies (not litterally).
Although, I still have nothing against anyone who wants a petrol car for a hobby. In the future of course...
When Electric/Hydrogen/(other) have taken to the skies (not litterally).
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V6G,
Your third point is utter garbage. You take a tally of people who are willing to travel on a pilotless aircraft versus those who are not. I conducted a greatly flawed survey down the pub one night - it's simple, nobody will do it. Everything else you've written is a pretty good prediction however!
Kind Regards, A
Your third point is utter garbage. You take a tally of people who are willing to travel on a pilotless aircraft versus those who are not. I conducted a greatly flawed survey down the pub one night - it's simple, nobody will do it. Everything else you've written is a pretty good prediction however!
Kind Regards, A
The no to automated trains 100 years ago is probably much stronger than the no to automated planes.
Eikido
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I have worked in the oil industry and know lots of people still working in it, it's widely considered oil supplies will not run out in our life times. There are still untapped reserves and the technology to recover what is left in the ground is on it's way and in some cases already exists.
I wouldn't worry about future job prospects based on the supply of oil i'd be more concerned about the tree huggers.
I wouldn't worry about future job prospects based on the supply of oil i'd be more concerned about the tree huggers.
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crude oil.....We wont need em anymore to fly in 10-20yrs... Didnt you guys know the A380 already flew on BIO-FUEL.....
Airbus tested gas-to-liquid fuels Friday on a superjumbo A380 in the first flight of a commercial aircraft using the potential alternative to regular jet fuel.
Airbus conducted the trial flight with Rolls-Royce Group PLC, whose Trent 900 engines power the double-decker A380 used for the trip, the Toulouse, France-based manufacturer said at a briefing in Filton, England. Royal Dutch Shell PLC., Europe's largest oil company, provided fuel for the flight, which didn't carry passengers.
GTL plants use natural gas, rather than crude oil, to make fuel that contains virtually no sulfur, including a mixture that can be used in cars. Airbus predicts that about 25 percent of fuel used in aviation will come from alternative sources by 2025.
"GTL is a good precursor to BTL," said Sebastien Remy, Airbus' head of alternative fuels research, referring to gas-to-liquid and biomass-to-liquid options. "When biofuels will be available, yes, of course, we'll use them."
Airbus is competing with The Boeing Co. to develop alternative fuels. Virgin Atlantic Airways Ltd., the British carrier controlled by billionaire Richard Branson, will conduct a biofuel test later this month with a Boeing 747. The plane will fly from London to Amsterdam, Netherlands, without passengers in a joint project with Chicago-based Boeing and engine maker General Electric. Co.
Biofuels, made from plant material, are years away from mass production. Shell is trying to develop second-generation biofuels that are more energy efficient and aren't made with food crops. Shell has said it's five to 10 years away from substantial second-generation biofuel production
Airbus conducted the trial flight with Rolls-Royce Group PLC, whose Trent 900 engines power the double-decker A380 used for the trip, the Toulouse, France-based manufacturer said at a briefing in Filton, England. Royal Dutch Shell PLC., Europe's largest oil company, provided fuel for the flight, which didn't carry passengers.
GTL plants use natural gas, rather than crude oil, to make fuel that contains virtually no sulfur, including a mixture that can be used in cars. Airbus predicts that about 25 percent of fuel used in aviation will come from alternative sources by 2025.
"GTL is a good precursor to BTL," said Sebastien Remy, Airbus' head of alternative fuels research, referring to gas-to-liquid and biomass-to-liquid options. "When biofuels will be available, yes, of course, we'll use them."
Airbus is competing with The Boeing Co. to develop alternative fuels. Virgin Atlantic Airways Ltd., the British carrier controlled by billionaire Richard Branson, will conduct a biofuel test later this month with a Boeing 747. The plane will fly from London to Amsterdam, Netherlands, without passengers in a joint project with Chicago-based Boeing and engine maker General Electric. Co.
Biofuels, made from plant material, are years away from mass production. Shell is trying to develop second-generation biofuels that are more energy efficient and aren't made with food crops. Shell has said it's five to 10 years away from substantial second-generation biofuel production
SO I say lets not eat up all those cows!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
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Firstly, automated flight:-
and
Firstly, I didn't say pilotless aircraft. I said two-pilot aircraft where one pilot is on the ground controlling many others simultaneously. Sure, Airbus may have stated their intentions (and I wasn't aware of that - thanks!) but what will happen if Boeing offered a competing product where, although the plane still had two seats in the cockpit, one of them is empty for the certification flights? The airlines will be free to choose if they have 1 or 2 pilots onboard - and this will be reflected in the ticket price. If an airline today can increase profit by removing paltry things like inflight magazines think of the competitive discounts to be made by being able to operate a fleet with only half the number of pilots.
Technically, there's no reason why it can't be done today. It's just the public perception, and this will change over time - particularly when the tickets are cheaper! Remember the initial skepticism when the Channel Tunnel first opened? No doubt there were the same concerns when air travel first dawned on the world.
And now oil:-
Nobody is suggesting that oil is going to "run out" in our lifetimes. My suggestion is that very soon, supply will begin to decline (or more likely, enter a prolonged plateau) and be unable to keep up with increasing demand. That means higher and higher prices which means less & less mass transportation. To consider how a high relative cost of transportation might affect our lives in the future, just look back at the past. The 90's brought long-haul travel to the comfortably-employed middle class - Florida became affordable for the annual family holiday as well as an easter trip to Spain to mix with the working class. In the 1980's it was for the families and package holidays. In the 1970's air travel was mostly for the wealthy/upper class with good jobs - once a year to the Med. In the 1950's-60's it was only for the super-rich / film-stars.
Untapped oil reserves are great, but are they anywhere near the size of the giant fields currently in production (eg Ghawar in Saudi Arabia) and will they be able to increase production at a rate that is greater than the decline in other fields (eg the North Sea)?
And I'm not too worried about the environmentalists. Public opinion will rapidly sway once standard-of-living begins to be affected. Notice how you don't hear too much about the environment now the economy has taken a tumble.
Bio-fuel is great, so long as the rich world can accept forcing the poor world into starvation by displacing their food production. The food riots in Haiti earlier this year, demonstrated that it's easier to make people in poor countries starve than it is to get us in rich countries out of our SUVs. The question is, in the future, which countries will be the "rich" ones - and how rich is "rich"?
I agree that ground-based transportation (particularly urbanised commuting) is a gross waste of a valuable resource when there are far better alternatives available. However, for aviation, there is currently nothing that even comes close to a viable replacement for oil.
Originally Posted by Slipstream86
Airbus have stated publicly that "their aircraft will always have two flight crew"
Originally Posted by Reluctant737
V6G,
Your third point is utter garbage. You take a tally of people who are willing to travel on a pilotless aircraft versus those who are not. I conducted a greatly flawed survey down the pub one night - it's simple, nobody will do it. Everything else you've written is a pretty good prediction however!
Kind Regards, A
Your third point is utter garbage. You take a tally of people who are willing to travel on a pilotless aircraft versus those who are not. I conducted a greatly flawed survey down the pub one night - it's simple, nobody will do it. Everything else you've written is a pretty good prediction however!
Kind Regards, A
Technically, there's no reason why it can't be done today. It's just the public perception, and this will change over time - particularly when the tickets are cheaper! Remember the initial skepticism when the Channel Tunnel first opened? No doubt there were the same concerns when air travel first dawned on the world.
And now oil:-
Originally Posted by ChrisLKKB
I have worked in the oil industry and know lots of people still working in it, it's widely considered oil supplies will not run out in our life times. There are still untapped reserves and the technology to recover what is left in the ground is on it's way and in some cases already exists.
I wouldn't worry about future job prospects based on the supply of oil i'd be more concerned about the tree huggers.
I wouldn't worry about future job prospects based on the supply of oil i'd be more concerned about the tree huggers.
Untapped oil reserves are great, but are they anywhere near the size of the giant fields currently in production (eg Ghawar in Saudi Arabia) and will they be able to increase production at a rate that is greater than the decline in other fields (eg the North Sea)?
And I'm not too worried about the environmentalists. Public opinion will rapidly sway once standard-of-living begins to be affected. Notice how you don't hear too much about the environment now the economy has taken a tumble.
Originally Posted by hitmanishere
crude oil.....We wont need em anymore to fly in 10-20yrs... Didnt you guys know the A380 already flew on BIO-FUEL.....
Originally Posted by LambOfGod
In my oppinion... The number 1 priority for oil should be aviation. Cars can suffer the 'extra' weight of batteries.
Although, I still have nothing against anyone who wants a petrol car for a hobby. In the future of course... When Electric/Hydrogen/(other) have taken to the skies (not litterally).
Although, I still have nothing against anyone who wants a petrol car for a hobby. In the future of course... When Electric/Hydrogen/(other) have taken to the skies (not litterally).
Last edited by v6g; 5th Nov 2008 at 17:50.
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The airlines will be free to choose if they have 1 or 2 pilots onboard - and this will be reflected in the ticket price.
Technically, there's no reason why it can't be done today. It's just the public perception, and this will change over time - particularly when the tickets are cheaper!
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Originally Posted by BerksFlyer
The cost to the passengers of having 2 pilots on an average flight equates to a pittance.
Originally Posted by BerksFlyer
There is a reason. How's a computer going to distinguish between a technical fault with certain variables? Is it going to have decision making abilities? Remember, the first crash caused by a computer making the wrong decision (they are categoric, there is no inbetween) or by failing, will almost certainly be the last. Sure, human error is the still single largest cause of crashes (though I read it has come down greatly recently?), but still the best way for humans and their cargo to be transported (psychologically anyway) is by humans. Then again it would be typical of humans to manufacture our own downfall.
Sure, these are issues that are way off in the future, 10 years at least. But if you're choosing to borrow £100K for integrated training right now, which will take most of that time to break even, they are just what you should be considering.
Last edited by v6g; 5th Nov 2008 at 18:24.
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Originally Posted by v6g
Nobody is suggesting that oil is going to "run out" in our lifetimes. My suggestion is that very soon, supply will begin to decline (or more likely, enter a prolonged plateau) and be unable to keep up with increasing demand.
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Originally Posted by ChrisLKKB
How soon ? Research by Cambridge Energy Research Associates (CERA) predicts oil production capacity is set to grow by 25% by 2015 and spare crude capacity to grow from 2 million barrels to 12 million barrels by 2010.
However, I've always doubted their prognostications because:
i) I'm not convinced of their impartiality.
ii) The only thing that seems to have been consistent with them is that they have been consistently wrong on their predictions - not just on actual dollar figures (which any rational mind can excuse) but on the overall price trend.
iii) They ascertain that, "We're right and everyone else is wrong. Just trust us.". Which, by failing to release the underlying figures that their research is based on, puts them right next to OPEC or an Icelandic bank in their trustworthiness. Their, "It's a fact - but we can't tell you why" stance is reminiscent of Tony Blair before the Iraq invasion.
One of their more recent predictions set the peak or plateau beginning not before 2020. Which means that they agree with the underlying theory, just disagreeing on some of the predictions for anticipated supply & demand.
I value their contributions to this topic though. It's crucial to hear both sides of the argument in order to build an informed judgment.
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Far too much doom and gloom. I'm beginning to wonder if our younger generation's heads have been filled with too much negativity by the constant bombardment of the the doom mongers. You really can't open a newspaper or turn on TV without being some talking head informing us that if we don't do something about it soon: WE ARE ALL GOING TO DIE!
Frankly I'm pretty sick of it, and have gone from being an avid newspaper reader and follower of current affairs to someone who rarely buys a newspaper and if I do pick one up. I only read trivial stories. It's the same with the TV and the internet.
For those of you who believe all the crap you read, try and get hold of newspaper archives from 30 years ago and you'll find the same nonsense.
This current recession, is in part due to everybody having talked themselves into it. Sure the banks played their part. But mostly it's caused by negative thinking brought on by consistently pessimistic predictions.
As for the long term viability of an airline career? Well frankly, if that bothers you, don't become a pilot. Even if it did all end in 30 years, so what? You had a good run. I doubt if it will though. I suspect my new born son, should he chose that job when he grows up, will enjoy a long and fruitful career.
As for the oft mooted, unmanned or one-manned airliners controlled from the ground.
Comparing them to unmanned trains is just asinine. Usually people who come up with that suggestion are non pilots. People who think that the smoothness and routine of airline flying is only because of all the automation on board are simply ignorant. Microsoft FS is not like the real world.
I remember as a child worrying that with the tremendous rate of technological advances that aeroplanes would be replaced by 'something' before I could become a pilot. I was a child of the space age, which was a considerably more optimistic time and it looked quite possible. Now it's the era of climate change and global disaster. Pessimism rules. So the current child worries that there will be no aeroplanes because all the oil will be gone. Neither attitude makes sense. The world just rolls along. It's also important to remember that for the most part humans have advanced over the centuries. Rarely have they gone backwards. There is no reason to suppose that will happen now. Aircraft are here to stay, in what form remains to be seen.
Frankly I'm pretty sick of it, and have gone from being an avid newspaper reader and follower of current affairs to someone who rarely buys a newspaper and if I do pick one up. I only read trivial stories. It's the same with the TV and the internet.
For those of you who believe all the crap you read, try and get hold of newspaper archives from 30 years ago and you'll find the same nonsense.
This current recession, is in part due to everybody having talked themselves into it. Sure the banks played their part. But mostly it's caused by negative thinking brought on by consistently pessimistic predictions.
As for the long term viability of an airline career? Well frankly, if that bothers you, don't become a pilot. Even if it did all end in 30 years, so what? You had a good run. I doubt if it will though. I suspect my new born son, should he chose that job when he grows up, will enjoy a long and fruitful career.
As for the oft mooted, unmanned or one-manned airliners controlled from the ground.
Comparing them to unmanned trains is just asinine. Usually people who come up with that suggestion are non pilots. People who think that the smoothness and routine of airline flying is only because of all the automation on board are simply ignorant. Microsoft FS is not like the real world.I remember as a child worrying that with the tremendous rate of technological advances that aeroplanes would be replaced by 'something' before I could become a pilot. I was a child of the space age, which was a considerably more optimistic time and it looked quite possible. Now it's the era of climate change and global disaster. Pessimism rules. So the current child worries that there will be no aeroplanes because all the oil will be gone. Neither attitude makes sense. The world just rolls along. It's also important to remember that for the most part humans have advanced over the centuries. Rarely have they gone backwards. There is no reason to suppose that will happen now. Aircraft are here to stay, in what form remains to be seen.
Warning Toxic!
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Eikido, you really need to examine real life. You are coming out with these 'factlets' that are total garbage. Sadly you cannot help it, this generation is being bombarded with absurd 'green' propaganda. The fact is I suffered from it once. I believed those idiots. I had severe doubts at the start of my career because we were being told 'the oil is running out!'. Utter tosh! This Peak Oil nonsense relies on all reserves being known now. They are finding more oil all the time- the latest is a big find off Rio, and oil extraction is vastly improving all the time. As oil gets more pricey, alternatives will be found, but it's not at $200 yet, it's actually nearer $60!
If you want to believe there is no career in aviation, you are naive and stupid, and better you go into something else and leave more room for new starters! Sorry to be brutal, but if you are going to swallow foolish propaganda, then you don't deserve to be in aviation!
If you want to believe there is no career in aviation, you are naive and stupid, and better you go into something else and leave more room for new starters! Sorry to be brutal, but if you are going to swallow foolish propaganda, then you don't deserve to be in aviation!
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This current recession, is in part due to everybody having talked themselves into it. Sure the banks played their part. But mostly it's caused by negative thinking brought on by consistently pessimistic predictions.
Forgot overhauling the banking system...
Forget the principles of macro economics....
All the world needs is a "Power of Positive Attitude" motivational tape that they can listen to in their car on the way to work...
You got my vote, Corsair!
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People who think that the smoothness and routine of airline flying is only because of all the automation on board are simply ignorant. Microsoft FS is not like the real world.
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Forgot fiscal reform...
Forgot overhauling the banking system...
Forget the principles of macro economics....
Forgot overhauling the banking system...
Forget the principles of macro economics....
But the problem is negative thinking and there's far too much of it at the moment. Many people for whom nothing has actually changed are now not spending money because of this recession. As a result the economy is slowing. Consumer confidence is as much a problem as anything else. We also have our friend deciding not to pursue a career as a pilot because he believes the oil will run out and climate change will stop people flying. It all becomes self fulfilling in the end.
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Pilots seem particularly prone to self-delusion on the oil issue, it's notable by the lack of any sound arguments on the major points of the theory, other than the usual: "there's plenty of oil yet to be found", aswell as the confusion that it's something to do with the environmental movement. The most common response: "oil isn't running out" is profound since none of the serious supporters of the peak oil theory actually believe that either.
Although, it is encouraging that I've never heard amongst the aviation community my personal favourite answer: "Jesus will save us".
The Brazilian find is indeed interesting, but the current estimate of proven reserves is still far below that of Ghawar.
Please, if you're going to criticise or throw insults, at least read what's been said. I didn't say oil is running out. That comment alone demonstrates sincere lack of understanding of the issues.
So Rainboe, if as you say, I'm "naive and stupid", then could you please explain to me:
1) Why oil prospectors (armed with ever increasing exploration budgets) are deliberately finding smaller and smaller reserves and why these reserves are getting harder and harder to access?
2) Why the water-cut of the worlds largest producing oil fields is increasing rapidly?
3) How Russia can actually increase their production even though they've publicly announced that they have already peaked and are now in decline?
4) Why you unquestioningly believe OPEC when they say "We have plenty of oil - just trust us" - yet they refuse to publish any verifiable data?
5) Why OPEC countries sovereign wealth fund investments in surface-based transportation (rail, shipping, etc...) far outweighs their investments in aviation related industries?
Oh of course, I forgot, asking these questions simply shows that I'm "stupid and naive".
Although, it is encouraging that I've never heard amongst the aviation community my personal favourite answer: "Jesus will save us".
Originally Posted by Rainboe
This Peak Oil nonsense relies on all reserves being known now. They are finding more oil all the time- the latest is a big find off Rio, and oil extraction is vastly improving all the time. As oil gets more pricey, alternatives will be found, but it's not at $200 yet, it's actually nearer $60!
If you want to believe there is no career in aviation, you are naive and stupid, and better you go into something else and leave more room for new starters! Sorry to be brutal, but if you are going to swallow foolish propaganda, then you don't deserve to be in aviation!
If you want to believe there is no career in aviation, you are naive and stupid, and better you go into something else and leave more room for new starters! Sorry to be brutal, but if you are going to swallow foolish propaganda, then you don't deserve to be in aviation!
Please, if you're going to criticise or throw insults, at least read what's been said. I didn't say oil is running out. That comment alone demonstrates sincere lack of understanding of the issues.
So Rainboe, if as you say, I'm "naive and stupid", then could you please explain to me:
1) Why oil prospectors (armed with ever increasing exploration budgets) are deliberately finding smaller and smaller reserves and why these reserves are getting harder and harder to access?
2) Why the water-cut of the worlds largest producing oil fields is increasing rapidly?
3) How Russia can actually increase their production even though they've publicly announced that they have already peaked and are now in decline?
4) Why you unquestioningly believe OPEC when they say "We have plenty of oil - just trust us" - yet they refuse to publish any verifiable data?
5) Why OPEC countries sovereign wealth fund investments in surface-based transportation (rail, shipping, etc...) far outweighs their investments in aviation related industries?
Oh of course, I forgot, asking these questions simply shows that I'm "stupid and naive".
