Growing Evidence That The Upturn Is Upon Us

[pipertommy]

So when do you think we will see start ups/expansion appearing to fill the gaps of lost airlines routes from the recession?

[A and C]

It's happening now, with one new player ar Gatwick and another based airline going into the Airbus market.

[pipertommy]

Thanks for the reply

[flying_shortly]

Personally, I think the recession couldn't have come at a better time for B.A. and Aer Lingus. Both seem to have managers in there now that aren't afraid to give the place a rattle and with the recession hopefully the unions will be a little more cooperative and less blood sucking than they normally are and see that what's good for business is good for jobs in the long run.....

Well done to Willie and Christoff if you ask me!

[A and C]

Flying Shortly

I agree with some of what you say but I would not want to turn this forum into a union bashing political bun fight. Some unions have had a policy of reasonable conduct over the past twenty to thirty years (some might say too reasonable at times) while others have not.

Inside BA the pilot & engineering unions have always been very moderate and understand the dire situation that the airline is in and are acting accordingly. However you don't have to go much further than the cabin crew forum to find people who just don't see what is going on in the real world.

I fear that that a lot of very skilled people are going to be out of work because of the very short sighted actions of the very well paid (semi-skilled) cabin crew.

[Wee Weasley Welshman]

You are kidding me right? Lingus are talking about making pilots redundant. Out the door. On the dole - looking for a flying job. For Wannabes that only means more mighty fierce competition.

As I pointed out repeatedly further back on this very thread - then ending of recession is cold comfort. Airlines tend to go bust months and years after the recession ends. The unemployment peak is more significant the the technicalities of absolute GDP growth or decline.

We're not at the worst stage yet. After that is passed airlines will be at their most vulnerable. Only last night I was talking to the General Secretary of BALPA in the pub and he was talking about redundancies in the offing at a large Charter airline, Monarch have said 40 need to go, Virgin have 70+ on unpaid leave, BA have been offering voluntary redundancy, Lingus are getting desperate and the future for BMI is highly uncertain. It wasn't a comfortable discussion.

This is pretty bad already and it will continue to get worse until after unemployment peaks then falls for six months in a row, i.e. a sustained recovery in jobs. Airlines can limp on losing money for a suprisingly long time. But there will be failures. Wannabe prospects remain grim.

Don't fall for it.

You'll be sorry.


WWW

[spinnaker]

Originally Posted by www

With interest rates held where they are and £150,000,000,000 of newly printed money being pumped into the system I'd be amazed if the recession didn't end soon. But don't think that means everything goes back to normal. The bombing may have stopped but the city is still in ruins..

The only thing that has made the figure look good is government stimulus. I can find little evidence of the economy generating its own growth that pulls us out of recession.

When the stimulus runs out, its down to the real economy, and I fear that it is still not robust enough even to sustain the weak growth shown in some countries. Ultimately, the government, any government, has limits as to how much intervention and support it can give to any one economy. The bad debt that created this mess is still there, but more worryingly, as economies have faltered, that in itself has created more bad debt from areas that were previously considered low risk. Just to pile on the agony, as if we don't have enough already, the only way for interest rates is up, eventually. Tax will go up sooner rather than later, and government spending and the state will most definitely contract by a huge amount. That is going to be an awful lot of money taken out of the economy. Despite what the papers say, the holiday industry as a whole is in steep decline, and that includes the home market. As for business travel? I'm getting phone calls every day from companies wanting to book into my B+B at a discount, despite a local hotel charging less per night than what I do. I have no room at the inn, and wont trade at a loss, so doors shut for now. Instead I supply the local hotel with fresh meat and eggs, and put the prices up to compensate for lost earnings in other areas. The corporate dick heads just don't get it, there is no free lunch or accommodation.

As www pointed out, unemployment peaks after a recession, not before or at the same time, that's why life is going to still be a bummer for everyone when the sun newspaper reports no more recession. Journos are another bunch of dick heads that don't get it.

[flying_shortly]

I heard they're looking for voluntary redundancy amongst the pilots.... So, hopefully they'll be rid of ridiculously highly paid captains... I say that's the plan... Streamline the businnes model. I heard one training captain is on 400K!!! Imagine how many seats they'd have to sell to cover his behind!

If anything, for wanabees, like myself I'm glad to see Aer Lingus adapt and change. If they're successful when things pick up hopefully they'll make big moves into the British and European markets to compete against Easy and complement Ryan in that EI could do major airports/city link ups where Ryan wouldn't... I'm sure that's what Ryan want given their 25% stake...

[Norman Stanley Fletcher]

flying_shortly - I do not know where you heard of a Training Captain earning £400k but can you PM me to tell me where to apply! If such a person exists, I have never heard of him - he sounds like an urban myth to me!

[TheBeak]

He is an urban myth from Leo Hairy Camel. Flying Shortly, you have your opinion but it isn't justified or explained, it is hoped for and is extremely wishful thinking. The purpose of the redundancies is to lean back resource in order to improve efficiencies.

The ultimate result? In the future, recruitment but on far worse Ts and Cs.

You talk like you'd be perfectly happy flying anything regardless of the money on offer. Well either:

1.Your family are happy enough supporting you and any of your dependants whilst you go and enjoy your life flying planes for a living. (or so you think you will).

2. You are quite happy making your dependents be the providers/ live on the bread line so that you can go and enjoy your life flying planes for a living. (or so you think you will).

People who continue to take great pleasure/content in current/ past pilots being made redundant are the types who would be perfectly happy with payscales for a320/737 of the following it would seem:

Fo (less than 500 Hours) - £17000 - £20000
Fo (more than 500 hours) - £21000 - £27000
Captain - £29000 - £36000

With an extra £1000 for being a TRE/TRI!

You talk like you side with the airline management with your 'get the expensive pilots out and pay us much less talk' and your:

Well done to Willie and Christoff if you ask me!

You try living on the above salaries, which people like you are the route cause of, with a £100K debt. It is impossible - you'll be making minus money. And you try getting a mortgage ever. This is madness. I won't compete when people like this are willing to work at this level.

Is this really what you want Flying Shortly et al? Out with the last remaining proof of our worth and in with the next bunch of little arse wipes who are solely focussed on their short term desire to be in a job 'that they love'?

[A and C]

Mel Cat C

A very long detailed and subjective first post, being only a mear line captain who has to fly with the "product" of the pilot sausage machine I find the quality of young FO's to be mostly satisfactory whatever the route that they took to get to the right seat and the very few less talented ones have largley come from the integrated courses (the very best one was from a modular course and she was very good). To the best of my recolection the company had only one failure at the simulator stage and I cant remember the source of that student.

So as a line captain I can't slide a cigarette paper between the two groups as a whole on quality grounds but what I do see is one group that has £20-30,000 more debt to pay off.

So perhaps you will see why I think that the integrated route very much the Rolls-Royce way to go and that at the start of the career prehaps it is best to get to the destination in a Ford KA.

[ricky81 sti]

Hi all,

I have been reading through the many pages of up's and down's and i'm wondering what the general thoughts are on getting a job having obtained a fATPL in a couple of years time, so basically early 2012 for job hunting?

Luckily i have the funds to complete my training (probably integrated) without having to go to the bank so sitting with £70k debt thankfully won't be one of my worries. I have been scanning through pilot recruitment sites and unless you have 500/1000/2000+ hours no one wants to know you which is quite off putting before i even start.

I've wanted to fly since i was at school and i've worked hard over the past few years to build up the funds to do what i've always wanted to do. I've been taking a few hours PPL in the past year as well as ATPL revision to help me into the swing of things and i'm loving it, i just don't wanna miss the boat and look back in 15 years and wish i'd taken the bull by the horns and went through with it.

Any thoughts would be welcome

[acuba 290]

@ricky81 sti

on your place I would go for it, if money is not a factor. But go modular, much more fun and less expensive

[Horse.....Fly]

I've been reading this thread and thought that this might be of interest to some people who have posted:

BBC NEWS | Business | UK rates 'to stay low for years'

Cheers.

[Finals19]

For all the companies that are suffering, are there not other,much better positioned companies that are waiting on the side lines to move in and take the business? I am talking about the likes of FR, EZY and notably Flybe? Flybe have a very lean business model on an aircraft that only takes 24% of total operating cost and yet fits the regions / commuter profile very well indeed.

It appears that they somewhat anticipated turbulent times ahead and rationalised their fleet when they could. Bombardier quote an average seat fill of 55% capacity to cover operating cost. Surely (without emulating other threads) these types of operation are where the employment will lie in the (near) future?

[SkyRocket10]

We're not at the worst stage yet. After that is passed airlines will be at their most vulnerable. Only last night I was talking to the General Secretary of BALPA in the pub and he was talking about redundancies in the offing at a large Charter airline, Monarch have said 40 need to go, Virgin have 70+ on unpaid leave, BA have been offering voluntary redundancy, Lingus are getting desperate and the future for BMI is highly uncertain. It wasn't a comfortable discussion.

This is pretty bad already and it will continue to get worse until after unemployment peaks then falls for six months in a row, i.e. a sustained recovery in jobs. Airlines can limp on losing money for a suprisingly long time. But there will be failures. Wannabe prospects remain grim.

To add some positive news to this otherwise depressing thread- BA have indicated in the latest internal flight ops news that based on current projections, recruitment is likely to start again late next year.

[Honiley]

WWW's post #3201 is a good indication, although Monarch have come to a financial agreement with the management to save jobs. This winter is going to be tough - it's looking very likely that Thomson Airways will dump up to 100pilots onto the market early in the new year!

I wouldn't get the bunting out just yet!

H

[Wee Weasley Welshman]

The Thomson rumour was one I haven't been able to substantiate. Is it looking likely that they'll stop carrying the excess flightdeck numbers?

WWW

[Jonty]

I understood the Thomson guys took a pay cut to save those jobs. If the management are now saying they are taking the pay cut and still dumping the pilots, then all is not sweetness and light at TUI.

[ba038]

Heard a rumor today that Thomson may lose up to 80 pilots....
(Even though pay-cuts were accepted)