Growing Evidence That The Upturn Is Upon Us
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This should help answer the "debate" on here about what is happening with passenger numbers... very grim reading... the cargo numbers are frankly terrifying... Economic Gloom Continues in January Traffic
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You've got to be so careful with stats, haven't you? Most Low Costs, including Ryanair, Jet2 and Easyjet are not IATA members and their traffic doesn't appear in the report.
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Problems for the low service airlines
As usual the goings on in the low service sector (or low cost as they brand of themselfs) is hidden in the fact that they don't show in the IATA numbers.
From my viewpoint I see both RYR & EZY with real problems, RYR are going to suffer from people at the lower end of the income scale not flying offset by the people with the money trying them (but just the once!).
EZY have another problem in that Aer Lingus are moving in to LGW using a lo cost model.
I hope that EZY can keep going as they do offer a value for money service unlike the other lot who just regard the customers as cattle.
What this has to do with flight trainning is that soon will be the time to get trainning, watch the commoditys market for hardening prices as this is likely to be the first indication of the economic upturn and a time when a good deal can be had on flight trainning.
From my viewpoint I see both RYR & EZY with real problems, RYR are going to suffer from people at the lower end of the income scale not flying offset by the people with the money trying them (but just the once!).
EZY have another problem in that Aer Lingus are moving in to LGW using a lo cost model.
I hope that EZY can keep going as they do offer a value for money service unlike the other lot who just regard the customers as cattle.
What this has to do with flight trainning is that soon will be the time to get trainning, watch the commoditys market for hardening prices as this is likely to be the first indication of the economic upturn and a time when a good deal can be had on flight trainning.
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Looks like a pretty long list and the most repesentative figures I could find but interesting point on the locos.
Easy Jan numbers like for like (i.e ex-GB acquisition) were down 3-4%.... not a bad effort.
I agree Ryanairs numbers are impressive, load factor steady at 81% on rolling 12 month basis and steady at 69% yoy in Jan. Will be interesting to see how long it lasts. What a wonderful world for wannabee pilots if all airlines evolve to look like Ryanair. Are they still recruiting?
Do locos carry much cargo??
Easy Jan numbers like for like (i.e ex-GB acquisition) were down 3-4%.... not a bad effort.
I agree Ryanairs numbers are impressive, load factor steady at 81% on rolling 12 month basis and steady at 69% yoy in Jan. Will be interesting to see how long it lasts. What a wonderful world for wannabee pilots if all airlines evolve to look like Ryanair. Are they still recruiting?
Do locos carry much cargo??
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EZY have another problem in that Aer Lingus are moving in to LGW using a lo cost model.
EZY are starting the same routes on the same dates as Aer Lingus, I suppose in an attempt to force them out before they've really got started. A strategy that RYR used well with EZY on the Dublin/Shannon/Cork/Knock routes of several years back.
The only stat you really need is the share price. The markets unspun view of each companies future profitability is there for all to see.
When those numbers start ticking up then the market is providing a proxy signal to Wannabes to enter training.
The darkest hour in terms of the economy, recession and airline failures has not yet been seen.
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When those numbers start ticking up then the market is providing a proxy signal to Wannabes to enter training.
The darkest hour in terms of the economy, recession and airline failures has not yet been seen.
WWW
Alt-A default, Eastern Europe in the hands of the IMF, revolution in China and the break up of the Euro - THEN - we might be coming out of the other side of this as long as Iran hasn't started detonating atom bombs.
Give it 18 months.
I've no idea how Lingus will do at Gatwick but I wouldn't want to be heavily exposed to the US or Irish market and be trying to open new bases. Good luck to 'em.
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Give it 18 months.
I've no idea how Lingus will do at Gatwick but I wouldn't want to be heavily exposed to the US or Irish market and be trying to open new bases. Good luck to 'em.
WWW
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Anyone can use the internet to back up pos or neg views, but i think anyone thinking this is anywhere near the trough has to be seriously deluded. Not sure were talking atom bombs (but armageddon is supposed to be fought over the holy ground <think middle east/Israel>) but i am sure that the world as we all know it has ended. NO more easy money, back to grafting, as grandad said, where there's muck theres brass lad. People need something to believe in and someone to blame, I blame labour/Tony and Gordon. They have systematically removed all regulations, sold all assets and passed laws to remove your freedom to object. My mam calls them New Communism, cant say i disagree. The far right are rising fast and thats no good thing for anyone, especially with the powers that New Labour have given the governing body (themselves).
Things are going down hill fast people and i see no green shoots, a few weeds maybe but nothing that remotely looks like a recovery and that will be a much slower and more painfull process than the downturn anyway. I honestly believe that my little lass will be a spotty teen (at least) before things are truly right again and she's not quite 4 yet.
Things are going down hill fast people and i see no green shoots, a few weeds maybe but nothing that remotely looks like a recovery and that will be a much slower and more painfull process than the downturn anyway. I honestly believe that my little lass will be a spotty teen (at least) before things are truly right again and she's not quite 4 yet.
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Grass strip basher
You poor deulded sole!
Quote What a wonderful world for wannabee pilots if all airlines evolve to look like Ryanair. Are they still recruiting?
RYR is not a nice place to work and the only thing it has going for it for the passenger is that it is some times cheap ( if you get the right seat on the right day, don,t ever want to change the booking and if the aircraft goes "tech" don't mind waiting three weeks for another seat).
I have seen it from the inside and it is not very nice at all.
Quote What a wonderful world for wannabee pilots if all airlines evolve to look like Ryanair. Are they still recruiting?
RYR is not a nice place to work and the only thing it has going for it for the passenger is that it is some times cheap ( if you get the right seat on the right day, don,t ever want to change the booking and if the aircraft goes "tech" don't mind waiting three weeks for another seat).
I have seen it from the inside and it is not very nice at all.
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I hope that you are correct, but it would be best if all who read these pages (and dont know the business from the inside) are quite clear what is what before they commit them selfs to spending a lot on a type rating.
Once the money is spent they are rather stuck with a small number of airlines that fly that type, so getting a fix in the company culture is vital to avoid three or four years of "unhappy" working conditions.
Once the money is spent they are rather stuck with a small number of airlines that fly that type, so getting a fix in the company culture is vital to avoid three or four years of "unhappy" working conditions.
If you want to rebase the shareprices over 5 years for inflation and market cap its still sharply negative, RYR and EZY have roughly doubled in that timeframe..
Some UK airlines are going to go under. Everyone in the industry knows the shortlist. It doesn't get talked about on PPRuNe very much as everyone is very sensitive to everyone else's predicament. Wannabes need to factor it in though. Its not just lack of growth that is going to be their problem.
What is happening right now is not a mere recession it is the start of a Depression level event. Just today we read that:
Japan industrial output plunges record 45.7% - Times Online
This is unprecedented in several generations. This sort of thing doesn't just get patched up and then the world continues as normal. The world has changed.
UK Public Spending will have to be cut by around a third within a decade. That's massive. That's awesome. That's the entire social security (dole and benefits) budget size. If it doesn't the debt interest doomsday machine will destroy the country and we'll be back to 1974 where Gilts had to pay 17% for the Government to get any international money.
What the political class are in a real flap about is the simple truth that the post WW2 settlement is over. Between East and West, State and Citizen. The welfare state is sunk and in the West, just like everywhere else, you'll have to earn your living or starve. Mobile phones, cars, holidays, Sky for those that don't work is going to stop. Finally.
The world really has changed and your living through it.
A villa in Spain, a weekend in Rome, popping over to Paris for the match and holidaying in Goa are all going to suffer. Badly.
WWW
Some UK airlines are going to go under. Everyone in the industry knows the shortlist. It doesn't get talked about on PPRuNe very much as everyone is very sensitive to everyone else's predicament. Wannabes need to factor it in though. Its not just lack of growth that is going to be their problem.
What is happening right now is not a mere recession it is the start of a Depression level event. Just today we read that:
Japan industrial output plunges record 45.7%
Japanese imports and exports crashed by their biggest margins since 1957 last month as the world stopped buying cars, semiconductors, electrical machinery and ships.
This is unprecedented in several generations. This sort of thing doesn't just get patched up and then the world continues as normal. The world has changed.
UK Public Spending will have to be cut by around a third within a decade. That's massive. That's awesome. That's the entire social security (dole and benefits) budget size. If it doesn't the debt interest doomsday machine will destroy the country and we'll be back to 1974 where Gilts had to pay 17% for the Government to get any international money.
What the political class are in a real flap about is the simple truth that the post WW2 settlement is over. Between East and West, State and Citizen. The welfare state is sunk and in the West, just like everywhere else, you'll have to earn your living or starve. Mobile phones, cars, holidays, Sky for those that don't work is going to stop. Finally.
The world really has changed and your living through it.
A villa in Spain, a weekend in Rome, popping over to Paris for the match and holidaying in Goa are all going to suffer. Badly.
WWW