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Growing Evidence That The Upturn Is Upon Us

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Growing Evidence That The Upturn Is Upon Us

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Old 17th Feb 2009, 17:58
  #1881 (permalink)  
 
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Now I have couple of questions guys

First, how do you see the future of aviation business in the middle east? any clue?
Some opinions say that airline companies in this particular area of the world will be less hurt by the economic meltdown. I don't know if this is really true.

Second, how soon do you think the business will pick up again?
I am expecting to get my licence by mid of 2010. I hope things will be better by that time!!


Thanks
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Old 17th Feb 2009, 19:06
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Originally Posted by quant
I came across this story on the times website - good or bad thing?
Good thing for a fraction of time, followed swiftly by it becoming a bad thing as it further freezes cash flow. Don't buy that tv now when it looks like it might be cheaper next week * whole economy == A Bad Thing.
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Old 17th Feb 2009, 20:11
  #1883 (permalink)  
 
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Debt Deflation will not be allowed to happen. It means the rich get poorer as they don't have any whilst the poor have loads. Anything - up to and including major war - will be used to return to the status quo = inflation.

Unfortunately they'll overcook it and we'll see hyperinflation at some point on the other side of this crisis. Hence buy non-fiat assets. Swiss gold looks good to me.

WWW
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Old 17th Feb 2009, 22:20
  #1884 (permalink)  
 
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Gold is a safe bet, also scalping crude on AVAFX is nice little earner if you have the time...which I have
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Old 18th Feb 2009, 02:33
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WWW you're right on the money! Inflation will soon kick in both in US and europe, you can count on it. Lets just hope we don't see hyperinflation, as I am deeply concerned about US for that matter.

Go gold and/or silver!
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Old 18th Feb 2009, 04:51
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Firstly I am not a cadet, and do not owe £60k+. I do not know how you came to that conclusion. Probably the same place your "informed" knowledge comes from.
Snippy.

Anyway, sorry for the rant, I'm not going to continue down this path as it leads absolutely nowhere. I am also not about to publish the T&Cs of the flexicrew agreement on a public forum, especially since they are still in discussion.
Ummm, its not really a secret you know. The plan for the use of Flexi cadets has been pdf'd and emailed to thousands of staff in several airlines for one thing.

I'm not sure where you plucked that £1000 a month from, then for the next poster to say the bond payment also has to come out of that is a little far fetched.
CTC will be paying flexi cadets £1,000 a month subsistence allowance tax free. The airline will pay the cadet sector pay which is taxed at normal rates. That's not plucked from anywhere. This is in the first six months of the cadetship for which read: summer.

Pay for a cadet entering easyjet is a rather modest £28k. You pay none of this towards your loan, this is a cadet salary and your loan payments are paid by the airline to APL as an extra on top of your salary. You DO have to pay about £200 a month extra to cover interest etc but this is easily covered by your sector pay. During your line training for 6 months you do get £1000 a month interest free but again, most cadets should finish line training before they are even due to start repaying their loan.
Thats when you get a full time contract. That's not the six months of summer spent as a flexi cadet. Hello winter - goodbye flexi cadet.

The flexicrew agreement has been designed to allow cadets, who have not been offered a contract at the end of LT, to continue to build hours as well as be able to repay their loan. Do you honestly think CTC would create such a plan if it meant their own cadets would not be able to repay their loan? That would spell the end for CTC with almost immediate effect. I can tell you that the agreement so far "implies" that cadets will be staying with easyjet whilst on flexicrew and get guaranteed income and days work. I'd rather not say how much or how many.
Imply whatever you want but all new Captains promoted in easyJet will be full time in the summer, part time in the winter and the missing summer FO's are flexi cadets..


In one way you do actually make me smile, but mainly because you remind me of the guy from Dad's Army - "Don't panic! Don't panic Mr Mannering!!"

Again, you misunderstand. For over 18 months now I have been shouting "Do Panic! Do Panic!" because I had an accurate mental model of how the economy and the airline industry and the monetary system was going to cave in. A view that until six months ago people were still laughing at.

All around you are composed and know there are sacrifices to be made, yet you still want to incite this panic in people as though the world is going to end.

Since 1971 the world has run an experiment in Fiat currency linked to nothing. This unstable model is now collapsing. It is perfectly arguable to contend that the world is ending as we have known it.

nt; as you were.

Aye, you too.


WWW



Bankers by virtue of their privileged position at the spigots of credit have over the years garnered for themselves a disproportionate slice of the world’s wealth. The best description of their wealth is from a banker himself, Sir Josiah Stamp, at the time in1927 the 2nd richest man in England and former head of The Bank of England:

Banking was conceived in iniquity and was born in sin. The bankers own the earth. Take it away from them, but leave them the power to create money, and with the flick of the pen they will create enough deposits to buy it back again. However, take it away from them, and all the great fortunes like mine will disappear and they ought to disappear, for this would be a happier and better world to live in. But, if you wish to remain the slaves of bankers and pay the cost of your own slavery, let them continue to create money.

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Old 18th Feb 2009, 07:56
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WWW,

Just for reference the proposed terms for the new 'flexi-crew' are significantly better once you have done the £1k a month (plus sector pay) for six months.

The standard terms for the HSBC loan repayment would be that the repayments would start after this 6 month period.

The only rub would be if there were no requirements for any flexicrew or full time FOs once the 6 months would be up, but who knows what might happen with the new optimising software.

jb
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Old 18th Feb 2009, 08:29
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"The only rub would be if there were no requirements for any flexicrew or full time FOs once the 6 months would be up, but who knows what might happen with the new optimising software."

Surely that is the problem... creates flexibility for Easy at the cadets expense/security... must be nice to know you may well be dropped like a sack of s**t by the company just as those big loan repayments kick in.

But hey sounds like a fantastic deal.
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Old 18th Feb 2009, 08:30
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What on earth makes you think after six months you'd be kept on rather than replaced by the next batch willing to work for sector pay only?

Sure. There will be a requirement to replace the odd person who has lost their medical, life or who has retired. Having a period of flexi wings on your CV might put you at the top of the application pile for sure.

But there is no job at the end of the 6 month of summer. Implied, hoped-for or otherwise.


This is summer-only work experience..


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Old 18th Feb 2009, 10:29
  #1890 (permalink)  
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but who knows what might happen with the new optimising software.
I hear it isn't looking good for the much vaunted roll-out by april or may or whenever, so the number of F/Os required will be higher than first thought. Lets hope this is the case.
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Old 18th Feb 2009, 13:04
  #1891 (permalink)  
 
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Robert Cole's Recessionsaurus - Your essential guide to language in the 21st century

Hyperinflation is to inflation what depression is to recession: the same only much worse. Opinion divides as to textbook definitions: but inflation that runs at 10 per cent or more a month, or 100 per cent or more a year, is hyperinflation. When inflation gets really bad it destroys faith in currencies, and when faith in currencies dissolves, economic activity goes down the drain. Money helps trade, and helps build complex - hopefully civilised - societies. Without money, civilised societies are weakened, and inefficient bartering takes the place of more advanced, better, forms of life-enhancing trade.
Robert Cole's Recessionsaurus - Times Online

Unfortunately they'll overcook it and we'll see hyperinflation at some point
I hope you're wrong WWW
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Old 18th Feb 2009, 13:49
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Me?

>10,000hrs. A319. Captain. ex-CPL Multi & IR instructor. Integrated & Modular. Age 34.


Motivation - Wannabeism exposed as it actually is.



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Old 18th Feb 2009, 13:57
  #1893 (permalink)  
 
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Bye then.


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Old 18th Feb 2009, 14:06
  #1894 (permalink)  
 
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>10,000hrs. A319. Captain. ex-CPL Multi & IR instructor. Integrated & Modular. Age 34.


At the age of 32, merely accomplished at reading ATPL literature - or dear, I feel rather unwell!!!

WWW, I would kindly welcome a rethink of your age, I would happily accept 44.
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Old 18th Feb 2009, 14:21
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Nearly 15 yrs spent analysing banks and the banking sector in the City (averaging 70hrs a week... I know very dull.... but in demand at present).

Got to stage where had ATPLs exams done and then put rest of flying training on hold for time being... because day job made it obvious what a sh8t show this was going to be for pilot recruitment.

Current flying for fun with several hundred hours... have owned shares in various light aircraft.... am only generation of family who hasn't (so far) been a professional pilot (old man BA, Grandad RAF, mum hostie etc etc).

Am I a failed wanabee.... hmmm not yet (how do you define "failed").... am I spreading doom.... yes.... because that is what the world is going to be like for next couple of years.
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Old 18th Feb 2009, 14:24
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WWW, I would kindly welcome a rethink of your age, I would happily accept 44.
I second that!

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Old 18th Feb 2009, 14:42
  #1897 (permalink)  
 
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My boss in Jerez was a Nimrod Captain in charge of nuclear equipped torpedos at the age of 24. There is ALWAYS someone who has done more, better, earlier, younger than you have.


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Old 18th Feb 2009, 22:39
  #1898 (permalink)  
 
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fastjetpilot seems to have deleted his posts and slipped harbour.

Which screws up the context somewhat. Hey ho.


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Old 19th Feb 2009, 07:25
  #1899 (permalink)  

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Ha ha...cheeky Topslide but funny! Funniest thing i've read since I lost my EICAS and triple everything with this so*ding B737!!!!!!
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Old 20th Feb 2009, 09:29
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..............knowing JB.......................
he would be having a giggle .................
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