Growing Evidence That The Upturn Is Upon Us
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Again, you misunderstand me. I completely agree that this is a time for wannabees to be extremely cautious, particularly with borrowed money. I am merely observing that the data from the Low Costs, from as recently as October, flies in the face of your arguements and predictions.
Yes, I agree there is a fall in profits but a fall in profits, even to break even, is not 'losing money hand over fist', in fact it's not 'losing money' at all. Having observed MOL over some years I wouldn't be surprised if he is making the most of the economic situation to do a bit of trimming that would not be acceptable to shareholders or employees in the good times but he thinks he can get away with now. It's an old tactic.
Yes, I agree there is a fall in profits but a fall in profits, even to break even, is not 'losing money hand over fist', in fact it's not 'losing money' at all. Having observed MOL over some years I wouldn't be surprised if he is making the most of the economic situation to do a bit of trimming that would not be acceptable to shareholders or employees in the good times but he thinks he can get away with now. It's an old tactic.
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Originally Posted by Topslide6
The whole point of this 1200+ posts is to try and make wanabees realise that now and next year is really not the time to be embarking on a frozen ATPL.
According to you, December 2009 (for example) is the wrong time to start training, when coming out at the beginning of 2012 could be the right time for some. Indeed, starting training now, could be the right thing to do for some - they could leave their FTO and walk straight into a jet job! On the other hand, they could walk out of their FTO into the tumbleweed for 3 years. You don't know. I don't know. Even WWW doesn't know!
So if we don't know something, how can we convince somebody about something that we have no idea about!Surely, you must see that trying to dress the future up as fact is futile?
Of course, providing fact, economic trend and opinion is useful to anybody involved in aviation, or looking to become involved in aviation.
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Surely, you must see that trying to dress the future up as fact is futile?
From what I've seen, I like to think the (admittedly bleak) advice posted here is done so in the spirit of being helpful and honest (albeit, well, a bit bleak)
It's perfectly true to state that everything surrounding this subject is speculation, 'cos it is. But it is based on previous experience, previous known facts and appears to be imparted by people who don't want your money, which I gather is rather the point.
Having ambled through various glossy mags/ sites/ conversations related to training in the aviation industry, I'm quite happy I found this place! (although of course I don't necessarily agree with all I read on it)
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I notice that Ryanair are now only recruiting Cadets and Captains - no 'experienced' first officers according to their website.
I think this is another key difference to this downturn, when compared to others. In the past, experienced guys got taken on, over and above inexperience. Now, this has only to do with the economic benefits of taking on cadets which start at little, or no salary for 6-12 months.
This may be great news for some, but it signifies a really worrying trend for those looking at aviation as a 'career'.
I think this is another key difference to this downturn, when compared to others. In the past, experienced guys got taken on, over and above inexperience. Now, this has only to do with the economic benefits of taking on cadets which start at little, or no salary for 6-12 months.
This may be great news for some, but it signifies a really worrying trend for those looking at aviation as a 'career'.
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I refer to this thread in what I said, what the FTOs say is irrelevant to this thread, of course no business will tell you "don't use us!", in any industry.
Thing is, they have a reason (profit) to try and sway opinion. Whilst not forgiveable, at least they have an excuse!
Of course it works both ways, but I don't see many people on here saying "now is the best time to train....fact!"...and if I did, I'd say the same thing to them as I have just done.
If you think wannabes that visit PPRuNe are bad, you should hear about those that haven't heard anything other than the FTO spiel...they really are the eye-openers!!
Thing is, they have a reason (profit) to try and sway opinion. Whilst not forgiveable, at least they have an excuse!
Of course it works both ways, but I don't see many people on here saying "now is the best time to train....fact!"...and if I did, I'd say the same thing to them as I have just done.
If you think wannabes that visit PPRuNe are bad, you should hear about those that haven't heard anything other than the FTO spiel...they really are the eye-openers!!
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Well, if any FTOs are suggesting what you say I think they should be named and shamed. From what I can determine even the big FTOs like Oxford and FTE are being quite honest about hiring prospects right now, although they probably aren't following quite the same line as WWW!
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Yes, I agree there is a fall in profits but a fall in profits, even to break even, is not 'losing money hand over fist', in fact it's not 'losing money' at all.
Some sobering statistics from some equity research as follows:
February 2009 figures:
US Industry Capacity: -13.8%
International Capacity: -2.7%
Total System Capacity: -10.7%
All announced only - no accounting for unannounced reductions.
Furthermore, largest output loss since early 1980s recession is forecast.
Its fair to say that on this forum there is a presumption that we provide the case for the prosecution whilst the flight training industry provides the case for the defence.
Thousands of people work in the flight training industry. Millions are spent on advertising. Products are marketed to people who know little about the industry.
Against this there's the Wannabes forum... not much is it?
So far this recession has been an abstract thing for most. A dinner party debating topic. Well its about to reach the nasty stage. 3 million unemployed will be seen suprisingly quickly. Discretionary air travel and holidays will simply slump as households cut back either out of necessity or fear. Mrs Welshman is in a meeting making people redundant as I type. Its ugly. Its bad. Its going to get much much worse.
The question of whether a major recession is upon us is now answered. It is.
What now needs to be communicated is what is likely to happen as a result. This can be done in several ways. One of them is to look at the last recession and learn about what happened then. From this understanding it is possible to make a guesstimate as to what will happen in 2009/10.
This seems rational to me.
Dan-Air - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
Air Europe - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
And as more of an educational point about how many airlines there have ever been which Wannabes have never heard of check out:
List of defunct airlines - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
This is a turbulent industry in more than one way and there's a real big storm on the wx radar right now...
WWW
Thousands of people work in the flight training industry. Millions are spent on advertising. Products are marketed to people who know little about the industry.
Against this there's the Wannabes forum... not much is it?
So far this recession has been an abstract thing for most. A dinner party debating topic. Well its about to reach the nasty stage. 3 million unemployed will be seen suprisingly quickly. Discretionary air travel and holidays will simply slump as households cut back either out of necessity or fear. Mrs Welshman is in a meeting making people redundant as I type. Its ugly. Its bad. Its going to get much much worse.
The question of whether a major recession is upon us is now answered. It is.
What now needs to be communicated is what is likely to happen as a result. This can be done in several ways. One of them is to look at the last recession and learn about what happened then. From this understanding it is possible to make a guesstimate as to what will happen in 2009/10.
This seems rational to me.
Dan-Air - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
Air Europe - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
And as more of an educational point about how many airlines there have ever been which Wannabes have never heard of check out:
List of defunct airlines - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
This is a turbulent industry in more than one way and there's a real big storm on the wx radar right now...
WWW
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WWW,
I think we are finally getting to the crux of your posts.
You obviously have some sort of issue with the flight training industry, making organisations like the one that trained you out to be messiahs.
What is your problem, if you have such an issue why are you a moderator on a website that I would suggest makes most of its revenue from the same industry you seem to have a problem with.
I don't think Danny would be overly happy when FTOs start to disappear aided and abetted by constant diatribe from yourself.
My thoughts are that if this is such a big deal to you, why don't you do yourself a favour (and everyone else)and get a career journalism or politics.
I think we are finally getting to the crux of your posts.
You obviously have some sort of issue with the flight training industry, making organisations like the one that trained you out to be messiahs.
What is your problem, if you have such an issue why are you a moderator on a website that I would suggest makes most of its revenue from the same industry you seem to have a problem with.
I don't think Danny would be overly happy when FTOs start to disappear aided and abetted by constant diatribe from yourself.
My thoughts are that if this is such a big deal to you, why don't you do yourself a favour (and everyone else)and get a career journalism or politics.
Last edited by biaeghh; 11th Nov 2008 at 12:52.
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what the FTOs say is irrelevant to this thread
Also, the need to make bucks might explain why some people do the things they do, but it doesn't necessarily excuse it. An opinion with no vested interest will always suit me nicely thankyou very much.
As for the repetitive nature of the grim forebodings, well, this thread alone is 62 pages long. I think nearly everything's been said before! It's only repetitive if you keep coming back for more.
On a lighter note, I propose we all start a thread-watch dedicated to spotting the green shoots of recovery via the medium of a positive WWW post. They do exist, and I have read them.
(As an aside, anyone interested in a sweepstake for the time said comment might appear?)
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Will Mr.Brown lead the lowering of taxes in the EU as suggested before the summer holiday bookings? Will this announcement be enough to inspire spending and get the wheels of the economy turning again?
Summer is the deadline for many yet-to-be-determined airlines, as many dont have the cash reserves to survive.
Perception is paramount between now and next summer.
People talking about Lehmans. Well Lehmans went down purely from gossip and rumours that it was in trouble. The rumour mill caused a run on the bank, which in turn made the rumours true.
You cannot have only a handful of people decide to keep spending, as they will lose out (wannabe training into a stagnant economy). It needs to be everyone, and the only way to achieve this is through perception. Something that Mr.Brown is utilising.
The economy is built on confidence. Stirring up fear wont solve anything, but will lead to prolonged recession.
Oil has dropped and predicted to hit $50, OPEC even cut production to raise prices, but it didnt stop going down. They are doing another significant cut in production next year to stem the fall.
Governments have already bailed out their banks, lowered interest rates and probably lowering taxes too. All to keep you spending. It's now up to you the consumer to kickstart the economy and help out the wannabe's/unemployed!
No, the doom mongerers arent after your money. They arent here for public service, although will probably claim it. They are here for their own twisted entertainment. Dont forget that.
It's this exact outlook that will cause the recession to last longer than it has to.
Summer is the deadline for many yet-to-be-determined airlines, as many dont have the cash reserves to survive.
Perception is paramount between now and next summer.
People talking about Lehmans. Well Lehmans went down purely from gossip and rumours that it was in trouble. The rumour mill caused a run on the bank, which in turn made the rumours true.
You cannot have only a handful of people decide to keep spending, as they will lose out (wannabe training into a stagnant economy). It needs to be everyone, and the only way to achieve this is through perception. Something that Mr.Brown is utilising.
The economy is built on confidence. Stirring up fear wont solve anything, but will lead to prolonged recession.
Oil has dropped and predicted to hit $50, OPEC even cut production to raise prices, but it didnt stop going down. They are doing another significant cut in production next year to stem the fall.
Governments have already bailed out their banks, lowered interest rates and probably lowering taxes too. All to keep you spending. It's now up to you the consumer to kickstart the economy and help out the wannabe's/unemployed!
But it is based on previous experience, previous known facts and appears to be imparted by people who don't want your money, which I gather is rather the point.
It's this exact outlook that will cause the recession to last longer than it has to.
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People talking about Lehmans. Well Lehmans went down purely from gossip and rumours that it was in trouble. The rumour mill caused a run on the bank, which in turn made the rumours true.
It went down as it ran out of cash in trying to meet obligations, which become more onerous as the share price fell. Yes, it was circular, and rumour pushed it further, but the whole business had been dying for a year or so before it actually happened.
This recession needs to be fearful, to force people to realise that they have to save more to be able to ultimately spend it. Life cannot be lived on credit forever, and the UK has done so for longer than most!
biaegh wrote:
The organisation that taught me to fly was the Royal Air Force and my present Senior Training Captain. I think neither are messiahs.
As for I don't think Danny would be overly happy when FTOs start to disappear aided and abetted by you. are you trying to threaten me? What do you do down there in Bournemouth? Is it work for a flying school? 90% of your posts seem to be about Bournemouth Airport, CABAIR or flying training..
cc2180 if I was here just for my own twisted entertainment I'd ask how your CTC course was going.
WWW
WWW,
I think we are finally getting to the crux of your posts.
You obviously have some sort of issue with the flight training industry, making organisations like the one that trained you out to be messiahs.
What is your problem, if you have such an issue why aree you a moderator on a website that I would suggest most of its revenue would appear to come from the same industry you seem to have a problem with.I don't think Danny would be overly happy when FTOs start to disappear aided and abetted by you.
My thoughts are that if this is such a big deal to you why don't you do yourself a favour and getting in journalism or politics.
I think we are finally getting to the crux of your posts.
You obviously have some sort of issue with the flight training industry, making organisations like the one that trained you out to be messiahs.
What is your problem, if you have such an issue why aree you a moderator on a website that I would suggest most of its revenue would appear to come from the same industry you seem to have a problem with.I don't think Danny would be overly happy when FTOs start to disappear aided and abetted by you.
My thoughts are that if this is such a big deal to you why don't you do yourself a favour and getting in journalism or politics.
The organisation that taught me to fly was the Royal Air Force and my present Senior Training Captain. I think neither are messiahs.
As for I don't think Danny would be overly happy when FTOs start to disappear aided and abetted by you. are you trying to threaten me? What do you do down there in Bournemouth? Is it work for a flying school? 90% of your posts seem to be about Bournemouth Airport, CABAIR or flying training..
cc2180 if I was here just for my own twisted entertainment I'd ask how your CTC course was going.
WWW
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"They are here for their own twisted entertainment. Dont forget that."
Geez well I wish that were true.... the last 12-18 months have been a bloody nightmare of sleepless nights and concerns over job security.... I must have missed the fun bit. As did all those friends and colleagues of mine who have already lost their jobs... how is that entertaining with a couple of kids and a mortgage??.
People continue to spend beyond their means is not the answer. That got us into this mess. We are heading for a recession that is long overdue... should have happened in 2001/02 but the Greenspan Put just poured more petrol on the debt bonfire.
This is not just about consumer confidence. It is about the global banking markets being screwed.... granted only bank analysts etc properly understand that (+ a few others) because it is bloody hard to get your head around unless you work in the industry.
To give you an example.... trade finance... keeps all those cargos in all those ships travelling around the world. The cost of it has gone through the roof. This means cargos left on docksides and the Baltic Freight Indices going through the floor. Bottom line without trade finance and letters of credit global trade does not function... that is already happening.
To think that a stiff upper lip and continuing to spend will solve this issues is naive in the extreme. A healthy FEAR of debt and a FEAR of living beyond your means would have helped stop us getting into this mess in the first place.
I say again DESPITE ALL THAT HAS BEEN SAID THE MAJORITY OF FOLKS STILL DON'T GET IT.... THIS IS THE "BIG ONE".... IT IS GOING TO HURT... LOTS
Geez well I wish that were true.... the last 12-18 months have been a bloody nightmare of sleepless nights and concerns over job security.... I must have missed the fun bit. As did all those friends and colleagues of mine who have already lost their jobs... how is that entertaining with a couple of kids and a mortgage??.
People continue to spend beyond their means is not the answer. That got us into this mess. We are heading for a recession that is long overdue... should have happened in 2001/02 but the Greenspan Put just poured more petrol on the debt bonfire.
This is not just about consumer confidence. It is about the global banking markets being screwed.... granted only bank analysts etc properly understand that (+ a few others) because it is bloody hard to get your head around unless you work in the industry.
To give you an example.... trade finance... keeps all those cargos in all those ships travelling around the world. The cost of it has gone through the roof. This means cargos left on docksides and the Baltic Freight Indices going through the floor. Bottom line without trade finance and letters of credit global trade does not function... that is already happening.
To think that a stiff upper lip and continuing to spend will solve this issues is naive in the extreme. A healthy FEAR of debt and a FEAR of living beyond your means would have helped stop us getting into this mess in the first place.
I say again DESPITE ALL THAT HAS BEEN SAID THE MAJORITY OF FOLKS STILL DON'T GET IT.... THIS IS THE "BIG ONE".... IT IS GOING TO HURT... LOTS
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Originally Posted by John Rayner
I have to disagree. Ignoring the positive spin of FTO's when criticising the opinions of some on this site is unfair, since in fact, as mentioned, all that they're trying to do is provide a bit of balance for the wannabe at large in the face of said PR campaign.
Also, the need to make bucks might explain why some people do the things they do, but it doesn't necessarily excuse it. An opinion with no vested interest will always suit me nicely thankyou very much.
As for the repetitive nature of the grim forebodings, well, this thread alone is 62 pages long. I think nearly everything's been said before! It's only repetitive if you keep coming back for more.
Also, the need to make bucks might explain why some people do the things they do, but it doesn't necessarily excuse it. An opinion with no vested interest will always suit me nicely thankyou very much.
As for the repetitive nature of the grim forebodings, well, this thread alone is 62 pages long. I think nearly everything's been said before! It's only repetitive if you keep coming back for more.
How much people bleat on about how bad it is, is irrelevant for me. If it lasts 100 pages, it is fine by me; I dip in and out to keep current with the latest info, ignoring the idle ramblings, of course!
What is pointless, though, is those that tell us they are right, because it is their opinion. Nothing factual, just that because this happened on this date, it will end up like that in the future. However possible it looks, it isn't certain so to suggest that they know what will happen and to suggest that there is a specific time frame when people should commence their training (only when this said person sees fit to announce this time, of course) is pointless and counterproductive. It negates the good information we get from those that express valid opinions.
Like I say, the fact it is 62 pages is irrelevant - if it is 62 pages of worthwhile stuff, great. If it is 62 pages worth of crap...not so great.
Worlds biggest car company share price (apologies to Toyota):
There is a very real chance of General Motors going bust within weeks or days. 3 million wage packets. Lord knows how many credit cards and mortgages. 5,000 direct employees in the UK alone. If GM went Ford would have to follow.
If this isn't the Big One then it sure does a good impersonation.
What we tend to think of as major airlines are really just small local businesses. Nothing is too big to fail at the moment.
WWW
There is a very real chance of General Motors going bust within weeks or days. 3 million wage packets. Lord knows how many credit cards and mortgages. 5,000 direct employees in the UK alone. If GM went Ford would have to follow.
If this isn't the Big One then it sure does a good impersonation.
What we tend to think of as major airlines are really just small local businesses. Nothing is too big to fail at the moment.
WWW
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WWW, both Dan Air and Air Europe were airlines serving the tour operator industry. One of Dan Air's weaknesses was that it wasn't tied to a tour operator, paradoxically Air Europe's weakness was that it was. It's parent company, ILG, went bust and Air Europe went down with it, even though it might have succeeded on its own. Viewed in this context both airline failures were part of the general decline of the tour operator market and the closest modern parallel is the failure of XL.
That doesn't really allow you to extrapolate their failures, which were decades ago and in a different market, into the low cost model of today any more than you could justifiably link the failure of Pan Am to the failure of Debonair.
That doesn't really allow you to extrapolate their failures, which were decades ago and in a different market, into the low cost model of today any more than you could justifiably link the failure of Pan Am to the failure of Debonair.
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cc2180 if I was here just for my own twisted entertainment I'd ask how your CTC course was going.
May we ask in what industry is Mrs Welshman making the sackings?
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Will Mr.Brown lead the lowering of taxes in the EU as suggested before the summer holiday bookings? Will this announcement be enough to inspire spending and get the wheels of the economy turning again?
