Growing Evidence That The Upturn Is Upon Us
Join Date: Aug 2008
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Bia, You might see it as patronising, I see it as trying to point out the futility in giving the example of a British guy driving a racing car as something to be positive about. It's a bit like falling in a cess-pit then finding some toilet paper.
I doubt the family who loose their house, the bloke who has to work until he's 80 or the guy who is made redundant will actually give a monkey's about what a ex-British tax exile gets up to. It's rather crass don't you think.
You say i'm negative about everything yet if you look at the majority of my posts i've always tried to put a positive spin on the reality we are all facing.
I doubt the family who loose their house, the bloke who has to work until he's 80 or the guy who is made redundant will actually give a monkey's about what a ex-British tax exile gets up to. It's rather crass don't you think.
You say i'm negative about everything yet if you look at the majority of my posts i've always tried to put a positive spin on the reality we are all facing.
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We need another Iron Lady/Gentleman to take the reigns, tell Europe where to go swivel, kick the Beurocrats back to Brussels, slap the chavs in to the low income void left by the euro migration boom and get this country back on its own two feet.
It's a shame Vince Cable is Lib Dem
Ok - lets ease up on the politics and stay focussed on economic news and its impact on the aviation industry.
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Join Date: May 1999
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Oh yes, of course. It's annoying really, these pesky airlines just don't want to be talked down by people who obviously know better than they do that they should be going bust.
Ryanair's October figures 18% up on the year before, load factors the same. Ryanair.com
Easyjet are reporting tomorrow, I believe.
Ryanair's October figures 18% up on the year before, load factors the same. Ryanair.com
Easyjet are reporting tomorrow, I believe.
Join Date: Dec 1999
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Load factors and revenue are irrelevant - costs and cashflow are king.
Their own headline on their results was "Ryanair Half Year Profit Falls 47% To €215m" - the margin fell from 26% to 12%, and p9 of the presentation states "pay freeze and redundancies implemented".
There's nothing like a taking choice phrases from an investor presentation now, is there, Alex?
The reality is that Ryanair are strong, will probably continue to grow, and you may have a chance to get experience there. However, they are a business, not a charity, and you enter that business with full awareness of how they run their operations.
Their own headline on their results was "Ryanair Half Year Profit Falls 47% To €215m" - the margin fell from 26% to 12%, and p9 of the presentation states "pay freeze and redundancies implemented".
There's nothing like a taking choice phrases from an investor presentation now, is there, Alex?
The reality is that Ryanair are strong, will probably continue to grow, and you may have a chance to get experience there. However, they are a business, not a charity, and you enter that business with full awareness of how they run their operations.
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Reading the metro today, O 'leary still boldly stating that by christmas there will only be Ryanair, BA, Lufthansa and Virgin left. What a complete and utter 
Does he really think that people are going to read that and only book with Ryanair for low cost flights?
Does he really think that people are going to read that and only book with Ryanair for low cost flights?
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Reading the metro today, O 'leary still boldly stating that by christmas there will only be Ryanair, BA, Lufthansa and Virgin left. What a complete and utter 
Does he really think that people are going to read that and only book with Ryanair for low cost flights?
Does he really think that people are going to read that and only book with Ryanair for low cost flights?
At the end of the day when you add the hotel and spending money to your £5 flight that weekend break still looks expensive these days.
Alex - something you want to get off your chest? Hats on..
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Join Date: Dec 1999
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Ah but didn't they all laugh at him when he left his fuel unhedged. How unsophisticated!
Ryanair thought the price rise was unsustainable, but slightly bottled it when it stayed around 120-140/bbl for a few months. Fortunately that has not hindered them in the long-term.
They're firing the big guns now. Interest rates are back to 1952 levels and in real terms lower than that. My guess is the ECB will follow suit ASAP.
Its not gonna work though.
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Its not gonna work though.
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Wasn't it a month or so ago, that the BoE was carping on about high inflation? Now they cite undershooting the 2% target as a problem. Hmmm. I think myself and one or two others here were talking about the threat of deflation, well here it comes. The IMF has reworked its forecast for the UK downwards to show a contraction of 1.3% during 2009. That's a shift in opinion of 1.2% in a matter of a few weeks. Staggering.
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Ah but didn't they all laugh at him when he left his fuel unhedged. How unsophisticated!
This is the bottom line:
BBC NEWS | Business | British Airways profits plummet
As we've only seen the first upticks in unemployment and repossessions so far and both will skyrocket in 2009 I think we can quite confidently predict losses for most airlines next year. BA are already parking Jumbos in Cardiff.
It really is 1990 again. Pilots will be flipping burgers in McDonalds again. Luckily McDonalds are doing well and hiring..
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British Airways profits plummet
BA says it should make a small profit for the full financial year
Half-year profits at British Airways have fallen 91.6%, with the airline blaming "incredibly difficult trading conditions" for the plunge.
BA said pre-tax profit totalled £52m ($81.6m) between April and September, down from £616m a year earlier.
Willie Walsh, BA's chief executive, said the period would "be remembered as one of the bleakest on record".
BA says it should make a small profit for the full financial year
Half-year profits at British Airways have fallen 91.6%, with the airline blaming "incredibly difficult trading conditions" for the plunge.
BA said pre-tax profit totalled £52m ($81.6m) between April and September, down from £616m a year earlier.
Willie Walsh, BA's chief executive, said the period would "be remembered as one of the bleakest on record".
As we've only seen the first upticks in unemployment and repossessions so far and both will skyrocket in 2009 I think we can quite confidently predict losses for most airlines next year. BA are already parking Jumbos in Cardiff.
It really is 1990 again. Pilots will be flipping burgers in McDonalds again. Luckily McDonalds are doing well and hiring..
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dublin_eire
The thinking of MOL could be absolutely correct. I read somewhere, that Ryanair have about £1b cash reserve. He can, or is using that reserve to capture market share and push competitors out of business. BA have reported a massive drop in profit by over 90%. The trick that MOL needs to pull off, is capture enough market share before the cash reserve runs out. Remember that the increased traffic loads on Ryanair is not new business, but rather someone else's business. That cash reserve does not have to last the whole time of the depression either, just long enough to kill off the competition, that's all. If I were MOL, (and everyone is glad I'm not) I would be planning beyond winter, I would be making sure my airline could inflict fatal wounds to my competitors during the honey season, SUMMER. I would also be operating at a greatly reduced rate from a number of airports, because Ryanair will be the only airline of significance operating.
I don't see anything to celebrate in the upbeat figures that Ryanair publish, because they just reflect the dire mess that the rest of the industry is in.
If MOL is correct, and his plan works, Then we are about to see low cost air travel take on a whole new meaning. If or when they recruit the salary will amount to dole money + 5%.
The thinking of MOL could be absolutely correct. I read somewhere, that Ryanair have about £1b cash reserve. He can, or is using that reserve to capture market share and push competitors out of business. BA have reported a massive drop in profit by over 90%. The trick that MOL needs to pull off, is capture enough market share before the cash reserve runs out. Remember that the increased traffic loads on Ryanair is not new business, but rather someone else's business. That cash reserve does not have to last the whole time of the depression either, just long enough to kill off the competition, that's all. If I were MOL, (and everyone is glad I'm not) I would be planning beyond winter, I would be making sure my airline could inflict fatal wounds to my competitors during the honey season, SUMMER. I would also be operating at a greatly reduced rate from a number of airports, because Ryanair will be the only airline of significance operating.
I don't see anything to celebrate in the upbeat figures that Ryanair publish, because they just reflect the dire mess that the rest of the industry is in.
If MOL is correct, and his plan works, Then we are about to see low cost air travel take on a whole new meaning. If or when they recruit the salary will amount to dole money + 5%.
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dam it www i was going to post that story 
The mood here at OAA with my classmates has changed allot. The air of optimism has gone and the reality that most are going to struggle to make their loan payments, if only they had listened to you www
Ah well cheer up its beer day!
The mood here at OAA with my classmates has changed allot. The air of optimism has gone and the reality that most are going to struggle to make their loan payments, if only they had listened to you www
Ah well cheer up its beer day!
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dam it www i was going to post that story 
The mood here at OAA with my classmates has changed allot. The air of optimism has gone and the reality that most are going to struggle to make their loan payments, if only they had listened to you www
Ah well cheer up its beer day!
The mood here at OAA with my classmates has changed allot. The air of optimism has gone and the reality that most are going to struggle to make their loan payments, if only they had listened to you www
Ah well cheer up its beer day!
Timing is everything. These guys are about to graduate at the wrong time, namely, at the start of a downturn.
I feel very sorry for them. Huge debts and no job, and no likelihood of a hiring cycle again probably for several years.
The ones without debt will be okay at the least, but for the ones who burrowed against parent's houses.... not so good...
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Sorry, dublin_eire, I was trying to be ironic. I'm a great admirer of MOL's clarity of thought, even though he can be a bit of a maverick. If you look back on the forums, mostly R&N, his failure to hedge his fuel in the late summer, around the time the 'experts' were predicting $200 a barrel by Christmas, was widely mocked. Turns out he was right.
I can't see any evidence to suggest Ryanair's increasing traffic loads are at the expense of any other airline, if that's what you mean by 'somebody else's business', Spinnaker. Low Costs can't usually afford to compete on the same routes. Difficult to see your case for 'the dire mess that the rest of the industry is in' as well. The three major UK short haul airlines all seem to be doing well, particularly considering the economic battering our financial brethren have visited on the country. Granted, profits are down but Ryanair's €215m in 6 months is not to be sniffed at.
I can't see any evidence to suggest Ryanair's increasing traffic loads are at the expense of any other airline, if that's what you mean by 'somebody else's business', Spinnaker. Low Costs can't usually afford to compete on the same routes. Difficult to see your case for 'the dire mess that the rest of the industry is in' as well. The three major UK short haul airlines all seem to be doing well, particularly considering the economic battering our financial brethren have visited on the country. Granted, profits are down but Ryanair's €215m in 6 months is not to be sniffed at.
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I can't find these on Easyjet's website but a post elsewhere on PPRuNe has the Easyjet October figures as:
Month ending.......October 2008.....October 2007.......Change
Passengers...........3,959,194..........3,344,916.........18 .4% up
Load Factor.............83.9%..............82.5%............1.4 down
Month ending.......October 2008.....October 2007.......Change
Passengers...........3,959,194..........3,344,916.........18 .4% up
Load Factor.............83.9%..............82.5%............1.4 down
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Spinnaker
I trust you are aware that when an airline is said to have "XXXbillions" in cash reserves it doesn't mean MOL could plug his debit card into the hole in the wall and hey presto, the balance shows XXXbillion. Most of it is cash predictions based on forward bookings that may or may not be already paid for. The problem at BA is that forward bookings have dropped sigificantly as they have at Ryanair. The often mooted £1billion cash reserves is used as equity to get loans from the banks for such aquisitions as you suggest...problem is the banks aren't lending at the moment - not even to Ryanair. I'm afraid the global domination you suggest is fundamentally flawed.
I trust you are aware that when an airline is said to have "XXXbillions" in cash reserves it doesn't mean MOL could plug his debit card into the hole in the wall and hey presto, the balance shows XXXbillion. Most of it is cash predictions based on forward bookings that may or may not be already paid for. The problem at BA is that forward bookings have dropped sigificantly as they have at Ryanair. The often mooted £1billion cash reserves is used as equity to get loans from the banks for such aquisitions as you suggest...problem is the banks aren't lending at the moment - not even to Ryanair. I'm afraid the global domination you suggest is fundamentally flawed.