Growing Evidence That The Upturn Is Upon Us
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Don't forget that the XL demise will create a loss of confidence in the holiday industry so any need for expanson if other airlines won't necessarily materialize.
Because of the collapse of XL there will also be a number of qualified type rated pilots in the job market who, without doubt, will find jobs long before any 500 hour CPL/IRs if such jobs exist.
Now is not the time to be a wannabe looking for the first airline job.
Because of the collapse of XL there will also be a number of qualified type rated pilots in the job market who, without doubt, will find jobs long before any 500 hour CPL/IRs if such jobs exist.
Now is not the time to be a wannabe looking for the first airline job.
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Pipertommy is absolutely right-if you can accept not much money coming in, do modular, become a flying instructor etc, have a good time doing it and in a few years time you will be in a good position when things pick up. The 'doom and gloom' currently experienced by the industry means few will do this.
One thing I don't think has been mentioned yet is that the banks/lenders are going to (already are) getting burned by the money they have lent to people to do flight training. When things do pick up I reckon that raising finance for flight training is going to be much, much harder which will cut off the supply to airlines of new qualifiers.
One thing I don't think has been mentioned yet is that the banks/lenders are going to (already are) getting burned by the money they have lent to people to do flight training. When things do pick up I reckon that raising finance for flight training is going to be much, much harder which will cut off the supply to airlines of new qualifiers.
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It's not just Zoom and XL staff losing their employment.
BA held meetings yesterday outlining that 1400 senior management staff have a small window in which to accept a redundancy package that will see them unemployed on the 30th December. If not taken then a reduced package will have to be accepted. Don’t be smug because they are senior management it always starts at that level then cascades down. Ba is losing £2.9 million per day at this time and it’s not the winter schedules yet. So, what about all those other airlines, they don’t have to go into administration for staff to face unemployment.
Just passed ATPL exams and now decided to start moduler CPL/IR flying mid/late 2009 unless things change for the better. And don’t forget the flying schools will soon be seeing a reduction in students so you may find some good deals next year but be careful they are not about to go bust.... remember SFT
BA held meetings yesterday outlining that 1400 senior management staff have a small window in which to accept a redundancy package that will see them unemployed on the 30th December. If not taken then a reduced package will have to be accepted. Don’t be smug because they are senior management it always starts at that level then cascades down. Ba is losing £2.9 million per day at this time and it’s not the winter schedules yet. So, what about all those other airlines, they don’t have to go into administration for staff to face unemployment.
Just passed ATPL exams and now decided to start moduler CPL/IR flying mid/late 2009 unless things change for the better. And don’t forget the flying schools will soon be seeing a reduction in students so you may find some good deals next year but be careful they are not about to go bust.... remember SFT
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One thing I don't think has been mentioned yet is that the banks/lenders are going to (already are) getting burned by the money they have lent to people to do flight training.
This happened in the USA a few years ago. Loads of students got into debt, banks then made financing to student pilots very hard to get. Consequently, much much harder now for USA wannabes (remember, totally different training structure compared to UK fATPL) to get funding. Which actually means that there are far less students becoming pilots - hence pilot shortage fears.
The same WILL happen over here. As soon as all the reckless people getting into vast sums of debt now start defaulting and causing banks problems; they will pull the plug on pilot financing. Maybe OK for all the rich lot with parents supporting them or houses to use guarantees. This is very bad news for students coming out of school/uni or on the financial fringe trying to get loans.
I bet you this is what happens;
- 2008-2010 massive pool of fATPLs with no jobs
- Banks (already in bad times with sub prime loans) make pilot financing extremley hard to get when they get p*ssed off with defaulters
- Come 2012, if recruitment starts again, pilot training will be only for rich
- Come 2015 with massive airline expansion & recruitment, therell be another 'pilot shortage', akin to the days of 1998.
Sounds like history repeating itself!!!!
They need to think about laying on additional 1,000 flights for the coming few months and increasing their capacity by 25% (XL's market share) for the future. Majority of these people will still want a holiday.
Superpilot you're basing your assumptions on a couple of things there! Firstly that the other carriers are running at 100 percent load factors which they are not and the other is that people will still want to travel when they have the fear of loosing their job. Thus any increase will be able to be accommodated in the current flying schedule which pretty much rules out expansion.
If you watched the news you would have seen a lot of those people had bought their holidays last year when times were still relatively good, now fast forward a couple of months and look at it again. Vastly different picture!
Things are bad make no doubt about it. While perversely its good that XL went out of business because it ensures the survival of the other airlines for the moment, don't for one moment think that because of this that the remaining airlines will expand.
Far from it. You will probably see more route restructuring with airlines dropping frequency on loss/slim margin routes and bumping up frequency on decent routes. The name of the game for any airline now is survival.
People whilst I admire always trying to look at the glass half full there has to come a time when you call a spade a spade! Prospects are not looking good for low time guys. Personally I wouldn't be suprised if the hiring freeze at ezy and ryr continues longer than planned as its forecast on growth of the market and retirements/ people moving on/upgrades etc. Take any of those away and you won't have any hiring at all.
Superpilot you're basing your assumptions on a couple of things there! Firstly that the other carriers are running at 100 percent load factors which they are not and the other is that people will still want to travel when they have the fear of loosing their job. Thus any increase will be able to be accommodated in the current flying schedule which pretty much rules out expansion.
If you watched the news you would have seen a lot of those people had bought their holidays last year when times were still relatively good, now fast forward a couple of months and look at it again. Vastly different picture!
Things are bad make no doubt about it. While perversely its good that XL went out of business because it ensures the survival of the other airlines for the moment, don't for one moment think that because of this that the remaining airlines will expand.
Far from it. You will probably see more route restructuring with airlines dropping frequency on loss/slim margin routes and bumping up frequency on decent routes. The name of the game for any airline now is survival.
People whilst I admire always trying to look at the glass half full there has to come a time when you call a spade a spade! Prospects are not looking good for low time guys. Personally I wouldn't be suprised if the hiring freeze at ezy and ryr continues longer than planned as its forecast on growth of the market and retirements/ people moving on/upgrades etc. Take any of those away and you won't have any hiring at all.
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there has to come a time when you call a spade a spade!
Lets face it, has anyone here ever called a spade a rake or a hoe? I doubt it!
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You guys are kidding yourselfs if you think were going back to the late 80's style boom in the next few years in the mature western markets such as the UK, Euroland and the North America continent.
The growth will still come from emerging markets. However it will be difficult for mature market citizens to obtain the necessary work visas once the emerging market's own training infrastructure comes fully online.
You wanabies also seem to ignore how increasing oil prices over the next decade will greatly help the emerging markets while crippling mature ones.
Maybe its time for you wanabies to start focusing on how to gain residency in an emerging market, instead of chasing the past by looking constantly in the rear view mirror of whats already happend in a mature market.
The growth will still come from emerging markets. However it will be difficult for mature market citizens to obtain the necessary work visas once the emerging market's own training infrastructure comes fully online.
You wanabies also seem to ignore how increasing oil prices over the next decade will greatly help the emerging markets while crippling mature ones.
Maybe its time for you wanabies to start focusing on how to gain residency in an emerging market, instead of chasing the past by looking constantly in the rear view mirror of whats already happend in a mature market.
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more good news:
Alitalia 'running out of fuel'
Italy's national airline, Alitalia, may have to cancel some flights because of a lack of funds to buy fuel, a top official has warned.
Alitalia 'running out of fuel'
Italy's national airline, Alitalia, may have to cancel some flights because of a lack of funds to buy fuel, a top official has warned.
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growing evidence that the upturn is upon us:
Holidays at risk as more airlines face bankruptcy
Holidays at risk as more airlines face bankruptcy
Holidays at risk as more airlines face bankruptcy
Families risk losing holidays they have already booked as travel chiefs gave warning that 30 airlines were on the brink of collapse.
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I have been following this thread with some interest. My job is to raise money for companies. I have done this job for more years than I care to admit and this is the worst it has ever been. This credit 'crisis' started 13 months ago, and despite what people say, is still ongoing with no end in sight.... The politicians have opened every loophole to facilitate the flow of credit, but just when we think things get better, we get some new disaster ie nationalisation of the US retail mortgage market, another US bank (Lehmans) on the ropes etc.
There is a huge amount of fear in the investor base, especially over the strength of any financial instutition. This means the price they demand is high. Therefore you have all the major Aussie banks raising funds about 0.5% - 1% higher than last yr, and still going up. For the UK, French, Spanish & Irish banks it is much higher (when they can actually find an investor to give them the money in the first place). These entities already have weak balance sheets, so cant absorb this cost, so they pass it on.
Essentially the cost of money is going up...alot. This is going to effect some many different areas of lives, as things inevitably get more expensive. This recession will not be short and I really hope we hit bottom in 2009 (as mentioned earlier), but no one really knows. The spectre of a Japanese decade-long recession is unlikely as the cultures are so much different, but the 3yrs mentioned elsewhere on this thread, should be what people should be expecting (read, hoping) for. And I really cant see banks offering trainee pilots (or anyone else for that matter) £60k+ in the future, unless it is secured on a house with a lot of positive equity in it.
The terrible failure of yet another large aviation/travel company, XL (and my sympathy to all their employees) is just highlighting how difficult it is for this industry, and Wille Walsh's comments should be listened too. Their woes are also being compounded by a high oil price. Speculation has played a part in the price volatility, but with China, India etc industralising, it is never going back down to $40 - 60 until we find a viable alternative (or the US find their own Ghawar oil field...)
As someone who is learning to fly (PPL) and is looking at switching professions in the future, modular seems the most sensible approach for any wannabe in this market, aiming to be qualified in 3-4yrs time...but only just my opinion. It is sad to predict, but there will be better qualified candidates for any pilot position for the next couple of years as the recent surplus of redundant pilots is absorbed.
Will probably regret sticking my neck out
There is a huge amount of fear in the investor base, especially over the strength of any financial instutition. This means the price they demand is high. Therefore you have all the major Aussie banks raising funds about 0.5% - 1% higher than last yr, and still going up. For the UK, French, Spanish & Irish banks it is much higher (when they can actually find an investor to give them the money in the first place). These entities already have weak balance sheets, so cant absorb this cost, so they pass it on.
Essentially the cost of money is going up...alot. This is going to effect some many different areas of lives, as things inevitably get more expensive. This recession will not be short and I really hope we hit bottom in 2009 (as mentioned earlier), but no one really knows. The spectre of a Japanese decade-long recession is unlikely as the cultures are so much different, but the 3yrs mentioned elsewhere on this thread, should be what people should be expecting (read, hoping) for. And I really cant see banks offering trainee pilots (or anyone else for that matter) £60k+ in the future, unless it is secured on a house with a lot of positive equity in it.
The terrible failure of yet another large aviation/travel company, XL (and my sympathy to all their employees) is just highlighting how difficult it is for this industry, and Wille Walsh's comments should be listened too. Their woes are also being compounded by a high oil price. Speculation has played a part in the price volatility, but with China, India etc industralising, it is never going back down to $40 - 60 until we find a viable alternative (or the US find their own Ghawar oil field...)
As someone who is learning to fly (PPL) and is looking at switching professions in the future, modular seems the most sensible approach for any wannabe in this market, aiming to be qualified in 3-4yrs time...but only just my opinion. It is sad to predict, but there will be better qualified candidates for any pilot position for the next couple of years as the recent surplus of redundant pilots is absorbed.
Will probably regret sticking my neck out
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More airline pilot job cuts
Just spotted this on BBC dated Frit12thSept
Looking like Alitalia about to go under on monday....
Alaska Airlines to cut 1,000 jobs
Alaska Airlines is not the only airline struggling with high fuel prices
Alaska Airlines says it will cut up to 1,000 jobs and reduce flight departures by 15% as record oil prices and a slowing economy take their toll.
The airline made a $50m (£28m) loss in the first half of the year and said it needed to take "decisive action".
The job cuts, representing about 10% of the workforce, will begin from 9 November and affect pilots, cabin crew, technicians and service staff.
Alaska Airlines is not the only airline struggling with high fuel prices
Alaska Airlines says it will cut up to 1,000 jobs and reduce flight departures by 15% as record oil prices and a slowing economy take their toll.
The airline made a $50m (£28m) loss in the first half of the year and said it needed to take "decisive action".
The job cuts, representing about 10% of the workforce, will begin from 9 November and affect pilots, cabin crew, technicians and service staff.
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Looking like Alitalia about to go under on monday....
Very final meeting starting in 10 minutes and the pilot union is starting to give in according to corriere.it
They realise that it's their last shot.
The government will give an offer that is to take or to leave.
And I really cant see banks offering trainee pilots (or anyone else for that matter) £60k+ in the future, unless it is secured on a house with a lot of positive equity in it.
If unsecured loans happened in the UK, it never happened in France, Belgium, The Netherlands, Germany, Luxemburg, Swiss, Denmark and Italy.
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Alitalia unions accepted a main proposal.
Other details still need to be worked out but unions are cooperating.
Flights on Moday will not be affected.
Source: corriere.it
Alitalia, raggiunto un accordo quadro Sacconi: «Passo avanti importante» - Corriere della Sera
Other details still need to be worked out but unions are cooperating.
Flights on Moday will not be affected.
Source: corriere.it
Alitalia, raggiunto un accordo quadro Sacconi: «Passo avanti importante» - Corriere della Sera
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Financial Health Warning!
Lehmans gone bankrupt this morning and Merrill Lynch taken over by Bank of America.... the turmoil in financial markets is A ONCE IN A LIFETIME EVENT!
Do not underestimate the impact this will all have on the airline industry. It is going to get a LOT WORSE. You would have to be straight out of the loony bin to sign up for an integrate course now as this will take 3-4 years to work out not 12-18 months.
This is very very very very very very very very very very very very very very very very very very very very bad..... the events of the next 6-12 months may well make recent events at XL look like a walk in the park.... ignore the warnings on here at your peril.
Now is the time for caution and hanging on to the job you have whatever it maybe and however unpleasant.... now is not the time for "chasing dreams!"
Rant over....
Edited to add that BA in the market saying "this is the worst trading environment ever"
Do not underestimate the impact this will all have on the airline industry. It is going to get a LOT WORSE. You would have to be straight out of the loony bin to sign up for an integrate course now as this will take 3-4 years to work out not 12-18 months.
This is very very very very very very very very very very very very very very very very very very very very bad..... the events of the next 6-12 months may well make recent events at XL look like a walk in the park.... ignore the warnings on here at your peril.
Now is the time for caution and hanging on to the job you have whatever it maybe and however unpleasant.... now is not the time for "chasing dreams!"
Rant over....
Edited to add that BA in the market saying "this is the worst trading environment ever"
Last edited by Grass strip basher; 15th Sep 2008 at 09:37.
For those that understand finance and monetarism the horror of the coming crisis is in full view. For 95% of people it remains invisible.
Still, Oils down again.
WWW
Still, Oils down again.
WWW
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Not to mention that AIG (owners of ILFC - one of the largest owners of aircraft in the world) are also close to collapse, which could easily lead to massive order cancellations at both Boeing and Airbus
Merrill Lynch have been 'bought' by Bank of America and Merrill was a MASSIVE corporate customer of BA. A big % of revenue came from Merrill.
Is that gone?
This is the 3rd phase of the credit crunch and probably the nastiest.
WWW
Is that gone?
This is the 3rd phase of the credit crunch and probably the nastiest.
WWW
