Growing Evidence That The Upturn Is Upon Us

[nich-av]

You only tell us half of the story.

This is what the OECD really said:

In its economic forecast which was presented last week the Organistion for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) forecast a continuation of the worldwide economic upswing, even though this will be slightly less intensive than so far. Despite considerable risks posed by the slowdown on real estate markets, turbulences on the financial markets and high raw material prices, growth would only temporarily slow down in several member states and then regain momentum.

OECD forecast 2.1% economic growth for 2008 - Made in Germany

Pilot training is a long-term investment.

You're a B777 captain on a flight from LHR to BKK. METAR (actual weather) in Bangkok tells you that there's Thunderstorms but the TAF (forecast) says that it'll clear up hours before you get there. Will you, as the captain, cancel the flight??

The intermediary report you mentionned is only a METAR, but the TAF predicted that condition accurately and predicts that it will not last forever.

The worst has probably past, oil is now about steady at below 110$ and reached a 4 months low below 106$/barrel.
Gold reached a 10 months low.
The dollar itself is in a bubble right now because of the falling oil prices. Investors are watching closely as oil futures go down and traditional markets recover. As they trade their commodity futures for shares, the dollar hikes up temporarily. The dollar will start decreasing again by end of the year as the market stabilises from these extreme movements and the clouds clear out.
Probably euro to dollar will be traded at 1.47 after that and rise slowly, back to a stable 2007 level.

The pound is expected to fall further against the euro due to fears of a recession in the UK. The Euro is a very stable and strong currency. The pound is not. Being too nationalistic was not such a good idea after all.
Don't worry, British friends.
You guys usually won't have too much trouble finding work in Northren Europe and the Middle-East.

[Tony Hirst]

I CANNOT believe that the same people are still saying things are going to be ok. Seriously, are you moronic?!

Charming Just because you cannot see other patterns doesn't mean others are moronic. Seriously, I am one of those people but am now sitting on the fence a tad more. I cannot see the what the fundemental basis of this upcomming recession is (oil and banks don't cut it for me). But I am now seeing is the power of the natty phrase "credit crunch" in full effect. Anything that implicates Gordon Brown also works for me too.

I have to admit, that I am in a bit of a smug win win position having now left Europe so can view things a little more disspationately. The housing crisis has me confused too, I just sold my house for 7% less than it was alegedly worth in April but 8% more than it was worth last year. It took 4 months to sell and exchange contracts. The 50% losses reported above are a suprise and don't reflect my recent experience or those of other people (with an exception) who have also sold in my old street. Are reposesions a good comparator, how do repo sales compare to this time last year (I don't know much about those things)?

Near enough every airline worldwide has halted recruitment and is grounding aircraft left right and centre.

Hmm, not so sure about that one. One airline here alegedly has aircraft ground due to lack of crew. There is plenty of movement, expansion and recruitment in Asia at the moment, mainly for contact pilots though. However, there is one new srartup that is sensibly holding off until the oil prices returns to Earth. Overall, if anything, Asia could do with the US and Europe taking a breather, some of the economies are likely to overheat and could do with slowing down a bit. Inflation is an issue here at the moment.

[JohnRayner]

Topslide6...

Eloquently put. And spot on for the money. Repeatedly saying it isn't so in the face of all the mounting evidence really only worked back in school, and even then not for too long.

Hatches battened, stormsails set. (sorry, wrong website..)

[Re-Heat]

I cannot see the what the fundemental basis of this upcoming recession is

Simply put: the banks fund the real economy with loans. Loans have dried up, or become markedly more expensive. Quite a large number of companies face upcoming refinancing issues due to expiry of previous bonds / loans (similar to a huge upcoming number of US homeowners on adjustable rate mortgages, who are facing huge rate rises at the end of this year and into the next).

Companies will not be able to refinance, and be able to afford spending as they have to date. Unemployment will rise temporarily, until banking is on a more substatial footing.

With any luck, the poorer companies will fail, their capital and labour recycled into better companies, and banks start to trust each other once again. The longer that process is drawn out by meddling governments who do not understand economics, the longer and deeper the downturn will be.

Outside the UK, Europe and the US, Asian economies are a mess - inflation is massive (30% in Vietnam), and dependent upon a few products or resources in many cases that are hughly volatile in price.

Falling oil prices should worry us as much as the rise has as well, as this indicates that start of the real cutback in spending over the next 2 years.

Economics 101 over.

[Alex Whittingham]

And yet economics is never simple.

The UK swap rates are coming down.

http://www.swap-rates.com/UKSwap_extended.html

..and why should falling oil prices worry us when rising oil prices were meant to worry us so much last month?

There's a huge risk in regarding news reports as 'evidence'. It's nearly all just opinion, as is so much of this thread. Economics 101? pah!

[Wellington Bomber]

Are we not forgetting also that even though the price of oil has dropped by 20% from the recent highs of July. That also sterling has dropped against the dollar by about 15%

So there is still not much difference saved?

[Alex Whittingham]

Indeed, but airlines hedge against the dollar as well as against fuel rises. And hedging, at the end of the day is just a bet which costs money to make. Some, like Ryanair, say the bet wasn't worth it. Right? Wrong? Only time will tell.

[ChrisLKKB]

Regardless of swap rates or oil prices, it is universally agreed by the government, the BoE and economists that we are in or headed for recession what ever way you choose to paint it.
The number of mortgage defaulters is up, the number of repossesions is up and the CAB recently said the number of calls they are receiving about mortgage arrears is up by 35%. Also, the number of migrant workers is down.
With fewer people leaving and entering the country airlines will have to reduce flights or air fairs which will mean a bit of belt tighteing required and one of the things that suffers during these periods is recruitment.
All of this is unlikely to change until there is a significant up turn in the economy.

[DUXBY]

Yes I agree entirely with www, reheat and co there are now too many indicators that there is a down turn. It's the people who have gratuated recently that you have too feel sorry for they have no chance, I am least in a position where I can delay my training for a while, but I fear that we are only at the beginning. Yes anyone would have to go into this with their eyes open and any sensible person would, but I still can't help but think that there is a bit of smugness by some of the posts here especially who have been in the industry for some time.

However there will be lot more casualties if 20% of British airlines fail which is what was predicted the other night, but again maybe just media hype, it seems that the credit crunch is the latest fad in the media industry and I can't help but think that we have being talked into a recession.

[Alex Whittingham]

Yes, Chris, I'd agree with all of that, and with Duxby. I'm just cautioning against armchair economics. Even the professionals get it wrong with alarming frequency, try a google search for $200 or $250 oil and spot the 'expert predictions'. Go a bit further back and look at all the newspaper articles on how clever it was to buy to let.

Good background reading is 'The Black Swan'. Wiki

Whilst I'm not saying they're wrong, 35% up from what? That makes a difference but it doesn't make a headline. Everyone has an angle, particularly governments, journalists putting together a story and CEOs making announcements. A case in point is the series of 'crisis announcements' post 9/11. Most of them turned out to be cheap excuses to get rid of old aircraft and lay off staff without too many questions being asked by shareholders. Look at 9/11 now on the graph of passenger growth over the last 10 years and you can hardly see the blip.

Ask yourself, if you hadn't seen the news for six months whether your opinions - based entirely on your own experience - would be as strong.

You are actually correct, the time not to start an integrated course was 12 to 18 months ago, but you couldn't tell people that at the time even if you knew it - they were so sure they were right.

[DUXBY]

Maybe another factor is that maybe people have just got plain bored with some of the pointless destinations offered by the low cost airlines. They have been there done that lost the bags have had their flights cancelled at the last minute and treated like meat. The only places in Europe worth going to twice are Paris, Vienna, Barcelona, Rome,Venice and Prague and a few others. The rest are forgettable.

[DUXBY]

Quote:

"cheap excuses to get rid of old aircraft and lay off staff "

I agree with this but every industry is at it, there's nothing like a recession to get rid of staff and avoid bad publicity.

[Alex Whittingham]

But Easyjet and Ryanair passenger figures in July 08 are 20% up on the previous year. Load factors are up too. Look at the figures:

Low Cost Carriers Passenger Growth

Could it be that airlines have paused in their recruiting because no-one will get sacked for getting that wrong - you can always re-start - but they could get sacked for carrying on regardless and ending up over-recruiting?

[rons22]

number of passengers is up, hmm, i think its all the immigrants flying back home due to the worst economy in 60 year and 2009 is gonno be the worst.

[ChrisLKKB]

Originally Posted by Alex

I'm just cautioning against armchair economics. Even the professionals get it wrong with alarming frequency

I've no doubt but there are a lot of professionals in agreement at the moment. When it comes to gambling with 40K+ it's not wise to bet against the house.

Whilst I'm not saying they're wrong, 35% up from what? That makes a difference but it doesn't make a headline. Everyone has an angle, particularly governments, journalists putting together a story and CEOs making announcements.

I agree although in this case the story wasn't specifically about mortgage arrears it was about the CAB struggling to cope with the number of calls they are receiving so 35% isn't an insignificant number.

Ask yourself, if you hadn't seen the news for six months whether your opinions - based entirely on your own experience - would be as strong.

I'm with a couple of other posters here who were saying that this situation could be seen coming some years ago now due to the government manipulating the economy for their own good and not the good of the country, I'm just surprised it didn't come sooner. I just hope this government will work it's way out of this current situation and not talk it's way out making things worse in the long run.....what am I talking about, they're just going to screw it up as usual!

You are actually correct, the time not to start an integrated course was 12 to 18 months ago, but you couldn't tell people that at the time even if you knew it - they were so sure they were right.

Imho it's still too early, i'm aiming to sit the exams in12 months (ish)....it'll be a snip after passing the national exams first time round. (I might see you for a brush up if you still do them).

But Easyjet and Ryanair passenger figures in July 08 are 20% up on the previous year. Load factors are up too. Look at the figures:

I don't think the airlines have seen the worst of it by a long way, foreign holidays are quite high on peoples priorities (apparently, according to surveys ) so they will be one of the last luxuries to go.That's just me speculating though.

Rumours are that Easy Jet are already tightening their belts http://www.pprune.org/rumours-news/3...-stn-base.html (you might be able to read the thread before it gets spirited away).

[32SQDN]

Profits for big airlines to soar as oil price drops

Daily Mail 3rd September:

Profits at British Airways, Ryanair and easyJet will make a dramatic recovery if the price of oil falls to $100 a barrel. The news provided some much needed respite for beleaguered carriers, and shares enjoyed a rare rally.

BA climbed 11½p to 273¼p and easyJet gained 36¾p to 379¼p, while Irish rival Ryanair flew 5 cents higher to €2.64 in Dublin.
But the retreat in the crippling costs of aviation fuel comes too late for failed long-haul firm Zoom and business carriers MaxJet, Silverjet and EOS, which have also gone bust. Crawley-based XL Airways is in rescue talks with its banks.
Gert Zonneveld at Panmure Gordon estimates that BA could make net profits of £330m next year if the oil price comes down to $100 - this is five times the current forecast of just £64m, which is based on an oil price of $120.
Using the same pricing projections, the analyst believes no-frills carrier Ryanair would see profits multiply by seven times next year to £110m from the present estimate of £15.4m.
Meanwhile, easyJet's earnings could more than double to £125m from £49m.
Dublin and Stansted-based Ryanair has taken the biggest punt on oil by going into this financial year with virtually no insurance policy against the rising cost of fuel, known as a hedge. BA has about 75% of its fuel needshedges this year, with 35% next year.
'It (oil price) is a huge deal for the airlines,' Zonneveld said. 'I wouldn't be surprised to see them taking advantage of the cheaper price by taking out more fuel hedging.'
Fuel costs are now the biggest expense for most airlines. BA's fuel bill is set to top £3bn this year, up from £2bn last year, and the flag carrier last month said it is spending £8m a day just to keep its planes flying.
The impact of record fuel costs on airline profits hit home when BA and Ryanair, two of Europe's most profitable players, recently predicted they could slip into the red this year if oil, which hit a peak of $147.27 in July, remained at such lofty heights.
But with the price of 'black gold' touching a session low of $105.46 yesterday, before rising to hover around $109 last night, analysts and investors forecast a less turbulent outlook for battered airline stocks.
Virgin Atlantic supremo Sir Richard Branson declared his interest in clubbing together with rival airlines to buy Gatwick Airport for £2bn from troubled operator BAA.
The Spanish- owned group looks certain to be forced to sell Gatwick, Stansted and Glasgow airports by the competition authorities.

[Re-Heat]

Ah yes, Alex, but I am not an armchair economist.

Regarding interbank rates - http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?p...d=aBctS84L7E_4

[clear prop!!!]

.....and read from your armchair no doubt!

[conerted_lurker]

Significant concerns now about Futura going bust over on Rumours and News is ominous. Bigger than the likes of BMIBaby I bet all their pilots have JAA licenses and speak English. Relocating from Majorca would be a bit of a downer but pilots go where the jobs are. I bet their FO's have got better looking CV's then me

I think this talk of armchair economists is people attacking the poster and not the posting.

You can't argue with the numbers when it comes to mortgage equity withdrawal money supply or with house price declines. There has never been a house price crash that has not resulted in a UK recession since the 1950's. There has never been a house price crash as big as this one so ergo there will be a massive recession.

I don't think its complicated enough to need an economist to understand that.

From what people on here say about the last recession it hits airlines harder than most other businesses and we should therefore expect to see some go bust. And, wowee!, look at that airlines going bust left right and center.

[DUXBY]

Gordon Brown promised an end to the boom and bust ecomony but we have seen that it doesn't matter who is in power we always experience these cycles until us Brits stop acting like sheep and start adopting a more European attitude to property ownership and attitude to dept. If you haven't got a decent deposit or can't buy something out right you can't afford it. The trouble is there are far too many people with maggots between their ears for the banks to take advantage of, the banks never lose out.