Growing evidence that the downturn is upon us....
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Sorry for peeing on a little of your speculation WWW, but the Halifax has just announced a 2% drop in house prices. You should consider a job writing 'red top' headlines. 
Heli, we must be reading different rags?
Oil Price Seesaws, Ends Up A Penny -- Courant.com
Oil prices end two-day decline
Heli, we must be reading different rags?
Oil Price Seesaws, Ends Up A Penny -- Courant.com
Oil prices end two-day decline
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2% down in a single month is 24% annualised... 
we never saw month on month falls this rapid back in the early nineties... we are moving into unchartered waters...
we never saw month on month falls this rapid back in the early nineties... we are moving into unchartered waters...
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Lurking 123 thanks for that useful reponse... wouldn't want people thinking anything was wrong in the UK housing market.... I stand corrected, the numbers I posted are slightly out but I stand by the conclusion being robust.
.... house prices are down 4.5% in the last 2 months alone... stick that pace of decline into your formula and see what drops out... unless it is a miraculous "turd polishing" equation you will find the same conclusion drops out the bottom.... i.e. conditions in the housing market are really really sh*t.... ask any of the 1000s of people who have been laid off by the UK housebuilders in the last week alone.
...the ability for some people to not see the wood for the trees never ceases to amaze me.... but I admire the "stiff upper lip" British approach.... reminds me of this famous sketch.... house prices down 4.5% in 2 months... tis but a flesh wound... The Holy Grail: Scene 4
.... house prices are down 4.5% in the last 2 months alone... stick that pace of decline into your formula and see what drops out... unless it is a miraculous "turd polishing" equation you will find the same conclusion drops out the bottom.... i.e. conditions in the housing market are really really sh*t.... ask any of the 1000s of people who have been laid off by the UK housebuilders in the last week alone.
...the ability for some people to not see the wood for the trees never ceases to amaze me.... but I admire the "stiff upper lip" British approach.... reminds me of this famous sketch.... house prices down 4.5% in 2 months... tis but a flesh wound... The Holy Grail: Scene 4
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Northwest cutting staff by 2,500 or around 8%. Attempting to achieve the cuts through natural attrition and possibly some redundancies. Parking up aircraft as well as most of the US carriers. No figures given as to how many pilots will be affected.
Now if I was a US airline pilot I would be heading east and either finding a partner with a EU passport or a helpful EASA member state that rubber stamps FAA licences and gives working extensions.
With the strength of the Euro I can see Europe being an attractive hunting ground for our US cousins and if I was an employer I would be rubbing my hands together.
Now if I was a US airline pilot I would be heading east and either finding a partner with a EU passport or a helpful EASA member state that rubber stamps FAA licences and gives working extensions.
With the strength of the Euro I can see Europe being an attractive hunting ground for our US cousins and if I was an employer I would be rubbing my hands together.
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Well then….nice to see a truly balanced 'National' viewpoint on the UK’s situation.
Here we are in Scotland with a 0.6% monthly increase in house prices. (crap, but not as crap as the rest of the UK!) More oil than the UK needs,… regional airlines recruiting ( even low hour FI’s) …maybe the SNP have got it right!!
Not to mention , no student fees,.. no prescription charges,.. no bridge tolls and Tartan Airlines have just ordered 50 x 787’s
and ….the border closes Tuesday!
Hey…the upturn is upon us
Here we are in Scotland with a 0.6% monthly increase in house prices. (crap, but not as crap as the rest of the UK!) More oil than the UK needs,… regional airlines recruiting ( even low hour FI’s) …maybe the SNP have got it right!!
Not to mention , no student fees,.. no prescription charges,.. no bridge tolls and Tartan Airlines have just ordered 50 x 787’s
and ….the border closes Tuesday!Hey…the upturn is upon us
Last edited by clear prop!!!; 10th Jul 2008 at 21:01.
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piper x
Im afraid you are incorrect, just cos you've passed your ATPL theory and done a cpl/ir skills test does not mean that you have a ATPL issued on the caa figures.
Once you have your CPL there are still quite a few hoops that need jumping thru before you have your ATPL.
You also need to apply for it, the CAA assess your application and if you meet the criteria you get an ATPL issued. Then it racks up an ATPL issue on the stats.....
Im afraid you are incorrect, just cos you've passed your ATPL theory and done a cpl/ir skills test does not mean that you have a ATPL issued on the caa figures.
Once you have your CPL there are still quite a few hoops that need jumping thru before you have your ATPL.
You also need to apply for it, the CAA assess your application and if you meet the criteria you get an ATPL issued. Then it racks up an ATPL issue on the stats.....
Actually Alex they are down 6.1% on where they were a year ago in 2007 which was still a rising market.
Monthly % drops in UK average house prices pubished by the Halifax building society (it excludes all repo'd properties sold at auction).
Jan 0
Feb -0.4
Mar -2.5
Apr -1.3
May -2.5
Jun -2.5
Jul -2
Since New Years Day 2008 they are down 11.2%. The worst slump in recorded UK house price history...
We are in a full speed crash which is accelerating and has well over a year to run. The media is still asking whether the 'dip' will continue but then the same media was saying a crash for 2008 was 'highly unlikely'.
Given that August and Sept are still to come and were rising in 2007 even if house prices now miraculously flatline there will still be year on year falls to come.
WWW
OR;
Monthly % drops in UK average house prices pubished by the Halifax building society (it excludes all repo'd properties sold at auction).
Jan 0
Feb -0.4
Mar -2.5
Apr -1.3
May -2.5
Jun -2.5
Jul -2
Since New Years Day 2008 they are down 11.2%. The worst slump in recorded UK house price history...
We are in a full speed crash which is accelerating and has well over a year to run. The media is still asking whether the 'dip' will continue but then the same media was saying a crash for 2008 was 'highly unlikely'.
Given that August and Sept are still to come and were rising in 2007 even if house prices now miraculously flatline there will still be year on year falls to come.
WWW
OR;
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Worst for 50 years
BBC NEWS | Business | Job cuts at housebuilder Barratt
Most definitely in un-charted waters now. Looking at historical data, house prices recessions are biting deeper and taking longer to recover. Maybe we're in for 5 to 6 year recession with the average property bottoming out at £110k.
Most definitely in un-charted waters now. Looking at historical data, house prices recessions are biting deeper and taking longer to recover. Maybe we're in for 5 to 6 year recession with the average property bottoming out at £110k.
Originally Posted by clear prop!!!
and ….the border closes Tuesday!
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To be fair, WWW, both graphs show the nationwide figures falling from the middle of last year, Halifax say the figures peaked in August, Nationwide in July. Whilst no-one would disagree with the basic tenet, that prices are falling and probably have a long way to go, don't you think you weaken your arguement by overstating it?
By all means advise caution, but shock headlines about the state of the US domestic airline market have little relevance to what happens in Europe and the middle east, very few europeans would want or be able to look for jobs with the US majors. The same is true of the housing market in the UK. OK, you've made what may be a smart move in selling your house but in your enthusiasm to talk down house prices you are not presenting a balanced picture to wannabees, you (and heliport) are only swamping us with one extreme viewpoint.
That is in fact the crux of the problem. No-one knows what will happen to either the economy or the airline market, there are only opinions. The press tout an alarmist view because it simply makes better headlines, but for every cut-and-paste article there's a quieter voice somewhere with a more moderate opinion. They may be right, they may be wrong, but you are losing the balanced view in your enthusiasm to see house price falls. You didn't, for instance, need to invade the tongue in cheek thread 'Growing evidence that the upturn is upon us' quite so forcefully, let it run, it's just an alternative point of view.
The shame of it is that your basic advice is, as ever, sound. Anyone entering the market now should be aware that there is a probability that jobs will not be so easy to find in a year or two. Stay in employment as long as you can, don't borrow large sums secured against property, be careful. Oh, and never pay an FTO more up front than you can afford to lose.
By all means advise caution, but shock headlines about the state of the US domestic airline market have little relevance to what happens in Europe and the middle east, very few europeans would want or be able to look for jobs with the US majors. The same is true of the housing market in the UK. OK, you've made what may be a smart move in selling your house but in your enthusiasm to talk down house prices you are not presenting a balanced picture to wannabees, you (and heliport) are only swamping us with one extreme viewpoint.
That is in fact the crux of the problem. No-one knows what will happen to either the economy or the airline market, there are only opinions. The press tout an alarmist view because it simply makes better headlines, but for every cut-and-paste article there's a quieter voice somewhere with a more moderate opinion. They may be right, they may be wrong, but you are losing the balanced view in your enthusiasm to see house price falls. You didn't, for instance, need to invade the tongue in cheek thread 'Growing evidence that the upturn is upon us' quite so forcefully, let it run, it's just an alternative point of view.
The shame of it is that your basic advice is, as ever, sound. Anyone entering the market now should be aware that there is a probability that jobs will not be so easy to find in a year or two. Stay in employment as long as you can, don't borrow large sums secured against property, be careful. Oh, and never pay an FTO more up front than you can afford to lose.
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G-Spots lost: CPL - ATPL
Just to clarify, what I meant to say is that I held a CPL therefore showed up as a CPL issue in 2003, I have recently unfrozen my ATPL and now show up as an ATPL issue. Two entries on the CAAs statistics but only one pilot.
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So those WWW bashers who say that he is alarmist.... pray tell exactly what evidence are you looking for to start to become alarmed yourselves??!
Will it be airlines going bust in Europe? (we have already seen this and it is gathering pace).
The only thing left to turn is passenger numbers and BA short-haul numbers for June is argubly a pretty big crack in the foundations of that particular dyke....
All you "stiff upper lip" types please please please don't just slag someone off for being gloomy... it IS gloomy... be constructive PROVIDE AN ARGUEMENT WHY THE NEXT 2 YEARS ARE NOT GOING TO BE A COMPLETE CAR CRASH FOR JOB OPPORTUNITIES FOR 250 HOUR WANABEES!!.... that is the end game in this debate is it not
Will it be airlines going bust in Europe? (we have already seen this and it is gathering pace).
The only thing left to turn is passenger numbers and BA short-haul numbers for June is argubly a pretty big crack in the foundations of that particular dyke....
All you "stiff upper lip" types please please please don't just slag someone off for being gloomy... it IS gloomy... be constructive PROVIDE AN ARGUEMENT WHY THE NEXT 2 YEARS ARE NOT GOING TO BE A COMPLETE CAR CRASH FOR JOB OPPORTUNITIES FOR 250 HOUR WANABEES!!.... that is the end game in this debate is it not
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Well, a 10 minute trawl of the internet gives Easyjet's passenger figures 19.5% up in June on last year. Etihad announced on the 1st of July its figures were 41% up in the first half of the year, Monarch were 5.4% up in June over last year, Turkish Airlines (!) up 15.8% in the first quarter and Ryanair carried 19% more in June 2008 than last year. Lufthansa reports passenger numbers in the first 6 months of 2008 are 5.4% up on the same period last year. In fact, in the UK, only BA seem to be reporting a decline with passenger numbers 2.9% down across the fleet whilst saying 'Long-haul premium and short-haul non-premium continue to be the better performing segments of the business'.
That's what I mean by selective and alarmist reporting. Your serve.
That's what I mean by selective and alarmist reporting. Your serve.
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Is this a competition to see how gloomy a prediction you can make?
WWW, your 'house price' figures are from mortgage companies and include only figures from mortgage-financed sales, and compare asking prices not selling prices. And suggesting that real declines are twice as great as even these figures simply because you like a good conspiracy theory is complete claptrap!
For a more balanced view of the housing market, free of the spin of 'HousePriceCrash.com' enthusiasts, take a look at the FT Index*, which compares selling prices of all properties, whether mortgaged or not. It's conclusion is that prices in June dropped 1.2% (not inconsiderable, I grant you), but that prices nationwide are still marginally above this time last year. That figure is distorted somewhat by London, but the worst decrease was in Ceredigion, recording an annualised reduction of 5.4% over the last three months.
As Alex says, things certainly aren't good, but we don't help anyone by trying to be the one that screams the loudest. Leave that to the red top papers and conspiracy theorists, and let's keep it off Pprune. A balanced view enables a balanced judgement. An extreme view can only allow a distorted judgement.
Scroggs
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WWW, your 'house price' figures are from mortgage companies and include only figures from mortgage-financed sales, and compare asking prices not selling prices. And suggesting that real declines are twice as great as even these figures simply because you like a good conspiracy theory is complete claptrap!
For a more balanced view of the housing market, free of the spin of 'HousePriceCrash.com' enthusiasts, take a look at the FT Index*, which compares selling prices of all properties, whether mortgaged or not. It's conclusion is that prices in June dropped 1.2% (not inconsiderable, I grant you), but that prices nationwide are still marginally above this time last year. That figure is distorted somewhat by London, but the worst decrease was in Ceredigion, recording an annualised reduction of 5.4% over the last three months.
As Alex says, things certainly aren't good, but we don't help anyone by trying to be the one that screams the loudest. Leave that to the red top papers and conspiracy theorists, and let's keep it off Pprune. A balanced view enables a balanced judgement. An extreme view can only allow a distorted judgement.
Scroggs
*You'll need to register to read the whole thing, but it costs nothing.
