Growing evidence that the downturn is upon us....
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My current employer predicts that its market will reach the bottom mid-2009 (bank) and that we will be back where we are right now in mid-2010. As usual, banks closely correlate with airlines.
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To go fATPL of not?
My god, I'm just about to enrol on my ATPL ground school for November this year and reading the posts on pprune I'm wondering whether I should bother with all this negativity about. 
Okay, so we're heading for a recession it seems...I'm 33 and decided that I need to get out of IT before it eats anything left of me and follow my dream career of flying a jet.
If I don't do my fATPL now, I'm probably going to regret it, plus I can hardly put if off for a couple of years to see how the economy pans out as being 33 is getting on a bit now.
So...with one bit of hope by someone here...what do you reckon on my chances getting into an airline end of next year, beginning 2010? I'm completely going modular and choosing schools etc as I go along.
I was looking to do a A320 TR at the end of it with Randhem, but it appears that many are losing money and having their courses cancelled
..sorry to hear that guys who have already enrolled with them.
Debts...yes! I'll probably have at least £30k debt at the end of it all inc. TR.
To go fATPL or not to go?!
Comments appreciated. (Note to WWW - Please keep chin up and give nice positive advice should you read this
)
Okay, so we're heading for a recession it seems...I'm 33 and decided that I need to get out of IT before it eats anything left of me and follow my dream career of flying a jet.
If I don't do my fATPL now, I'm probably going to regret it, plus I can hardly put if off for a couple of years to see how the economy pans out as being 33 is getting on a bit now.
So...with one bit of hope by someone here...what do you reckon on my chances getting into an airline end of next year, beginning 2010? I'm completely going modular and choosing schools etc as I go along.
I was looking to do a A320 TR at the end of it with Randhem, but it appears that many are losing money and having their courses cancelled
..sorry to hear that guys who have already enrolled with them.Debts...yes! I'll probably have at least £30k debt at the end of it all inc. TR.
To go fATPL or not to go?!
Comments appreciated. (Note to WWW - Please keep chin up and give nice positive advice should you read this
)
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AceD3 go for it m8! I work in the front office of a major bank and i hear loads of negative news but it hasn't deterred me! but beware we could be spending some time instructing...
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AceD3,
I started out in 2002 aged 35 when things wern't looking too brilliant but at least the right side of 2001, then again I missed out on the seemingly huge amount of recruitment that occured in 2006.
Finally finished my IT career with an unexpected offer last March after going through the process part-time and progressing said IT career. Now half way through line training with a 737 operator. In short, go for it, but before you do I suggest you get yourself checked out with a GAPAN assessment and be prepared for a lot of trials and tribulations, many delays, a lot of expense (much more than whatever number you have in your head right now) and a hell of a lot of fun.
Rest assured, early indications are that an airline career blows the souless slog that is IT into the weeds.
Okay, so we're heading for a recession it seems...I'm 33 and decided that I need to get out of IT before it eats anything left of me and follow my dream career of flying a jet.
Finally finished my IT career with an unexpected offer last March after going through the process part-time and progressing said IT career. Now half way through line training with a 737 operator. In short, go for it, but before you do I suggest you get yourself checked out with a GAPAN assessment and be prepared for a lot of trials and tribulations, many delays, a lot of expense (much more than whatever number you have in your head right now) and a hell of a lot of fun.
Rest assured, early indications are that an airline career blows the souless slog that is IT into the weeds.
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I can't help but admire those people on this thread who are still positive and are willing to go ahead with their training. If I were you I wouldn't do it, but that is easy for me to say. It takes guts (and a degree of insanity), and although you are going against the advice of anyone who knows what they are talking about, (and despite some of the more vociferous protestations, WWW IS certainly better qualified than most to have an opinion based on his own experiences) if you have thought long and hard and still want to go ahead, then you may as well get on with it.
And at 33 if you really feel you have to start now... just be aware that this is the worst time for as long as many people can remember to be starting out.
No one knows, and no-one can answer that. That's the whole point, start training now and it is a huge leap of faith. The overwhelming likelihood is that you will find it very difficult to find an airline job for the next few years.
And at 33 if you really feel you have to start now... just be aware that this is the worst time for as long as many people can remember to be starting out.
what do you reckon on my chances getting into an airline end of next year, beginning 2010
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AceD3,
If you think everyone is being negative now, just give it a few months.
When I started training, we were at the trough of the last downturn, there were no jobs what so ever and anyone who even dared suggest they were thinking about starting training were mauled to pieces by a very bitter, angry and depressed bunch of unemployed low hours fATPLs.
I started looking into training in 2003, to start mid 2004, to finish during the recruitment season of 2005. I was told by the pprune masses (under an old login name) that I was a complete idiot who had more money than sense and that I was a "lamb to the slaughter" for the marketing guys at the flight schools. In line with my research, 2005 turned out to be the start of the upturn and I walked pretty much straight into a job. Timing is absolutely everything. Lots of jobs, relatively low numbers of newly qualifieds.
I would argue that the downturn hasn't even remotely bottomed out and there is no real honest ability to see when the jobs for low hours fATPLs will be back in abundance again. Best advise would be hold fire for now. Some would say I was lucky (I was) but there is a certain amount of creating your own luck by making a genuine and honest estimate of when the good times will be back and coordinating training with that. Now is most certainly not the time.
If you think everyone is being negative now, just give it a few months.
When I started training, we were at the trough of the last downturn, there were no jobs what so ever and anyone who even dared suggest they were thinking about starting training were mauled to pieces by a very bitter, angry and depressed bunch of unemployed low hours fATPLs.
I started looking into training in 2003, to start mid 2004, to finish during the recruitment season of 2005. I was told by the pprune masses (under an old login name) that I was a complete idiot who had more money than sense and that I was a "lamb to the slaughter" for the marketing guys at the flight schools. In line with my research, 2005 turned out to be the start of the upturn and I walked pretty much straight into a job. Timing is absolutely everything. Lots of jobs, relatively low numbers of newly qualifieds.
I would argue that the downturn hasn't even remotely bottomed out and there is no real honest ability to see when the jobs for low hours fATPLs will be back in abundance again. Best advise would be hold fire for now. Some would say I was lucky (I was) but there is a certain amount of creating your own luck by making a genuine and honest estimate of when the good times will be back and coordinating training with that. Now is most certainly not the time.
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Due to the nature of the beast there's a very high turnover in this forum and this leads to a very poor collective memory.
During the time frame Artie mentions it was WWW talking up the pilot market portents. He could hear, feel and smell it coming and let everyone know.
And being WWW he let you know repeatedly
Rob
During the time frame Artie mentions it was WWW talking up the pilot market portents. He could hear, feel and smell it coming and let everyone know.
And being WWW he let you know repeatedly
Rob
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It's certainly very interesting to hear the informative contributions of many in this thread both from an aviation and financial perspective. Though I am far from offering any experienced based opinion from either of these aspects I am nonetheless concerned at the absence throughout of the keyword we refer to as Iran. I am of the belief that this single variable could have a far more tsunami effect on things than the relatively simple economic vibes we are discussing.
When you have an outgoing president more than happy to pull the trigger and let the common man and woman suffer the economic backlash of such actions then I raise more than an eyebrow. When unnamed sources begin commenting on 'imminent' or always suffixing media communications with "but we won't rule out military action" then I am more than concerned for the fragility of the aviation industry and begin thinking seriously about my future and that of my family. With so many pivotal if not vital interests well within Iran's radius we could be in real trouble. When that first Iranian missile shoots across the tanker navigating the just 23 mile wide hormuz strait then insurance will evaporate and the financial markets will PANIC. The cost of oil will make $200 a barrell look like a Christmas present. Those that stated they had been mislead about the Iraq war seem to be stepping straight back into line again for another mistake of epic proportions, wisdom it seems exists only in hindsight.
Such a scenario would wipe out any roads leading into aviation. I'm thinking big picture here and not the technical orientated commentry of previous posters who are spot on with their views. I may not be a building inspector but I know that blazing building is going to fall. I may not be food scientist but know that the food lying on the kitchen floor is going to do more than turn you green
I'm sure you get the picture.
When you have an outgoing president more than happy to pull the trigger and let the common man and woman suffer the economic backlash of such actions then I raise more than an eyebrow. When unnamed sources begin commenting on 'imminent' or always suffixing media communications with "but we won't rule out military action" then I am more than concerned for the fragility of the aviation industry and begin thinking seriously about my future and that of my family. With so many pivotal if not vital interests well within Iran's radius we could be in real trouble. When that first Iranian missile shoots across the tanker navigating the just 23 mile wide hormuz strait then insurance will evaporate and the financial markets will PANIC. The cost of oil will make $200 a barrell look like a Christmas present. Those that stated they had been mislead about the Iraq war seem to be stepping straight back into line again for another mistake of epic proportions, wisdom it seems exists only in hindsight.
Such a scenario would wipe out any roads leading into aviation. I'm thinking big picture here and not the technical orientated commentry of previous posters who are spot on with their views. I may not be a building inspector but I know that blazing building is going to fall. I may not be food scientist but know that the food lying on the kitchen floor is going to do more than turn you green
I'm sure you get the picture.
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thirtysomething please don't take anything I said personally! I can't possibly lay the blame for any of this at your feet in reality, but I do feel that the financial sector took its more vulnerable customers for a ride without setting up the safety nets that such risky practises should have required. It's fine to cry 'caveat emptor' and then fleece your target if they are as educated and savvy as yourself, but many - most - of those caught in the sub-prime fallout are as naive and innocent as they seem. As you and I both intimate, many wannabes are equally naive and innocent of financial matters, and will gloss over the details in the rush to secure finance for flying training - hence all the warnings on this thread.
As for losing my house, well, you can call it lack of forethought if you like. I call it just being a normal working man. Sadly, I'm like the majority of the working population - I have a house bought with considerable equity using a mortgage that is a low multiple of my income. all very sensible and normal - and if I lose my income, I will no longer be able to service the debt. Boo hoo. Very sad for me - though all it means in reality is that I trade down to a smaller house and no debt. Sadder for the financial industry, though, as they lose a sound, reliable customer with a long term interest commitment. And they'll lose thousands - maybe millions - of others too. That's a lot of cash flow out the window, and the asset base gets written down to boot.
Anyway, that's all by the by. Thanks for your contribution; it was more appreciated than I think you believe!
Scroggs
As for losing my house, well, you can call it lack of forethought if you like. I call it just being a normal working man. Sadly, I'm like the majority of the working population - I have a house bought with considerable equity using a mortgage that is a low multiple of my income. all very sensible and normal - and if I lose my income, I will no longer be able to service the debt. Boo hoo. Very sad for me - though all it means in reality is that I trade down to a smaller house and no debt. Sadder for the financial industry, though, as they lose a sound, reliable customer with a long term interest commitment. And they'll lose thousands - maybe millions - of others too. That's a lot of cash flow out the window, and the asset base gets written down to boot.
Anyway, that's all by the by. Thanks for your contribution; it was more appreciated than I think you believe!
Scroggs
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Somewhat contradictory to all the above, but I believe that worrying about wars is over-the-top.
Simply put, war does not cost the global economy as much in lost output as one might think: defence spending clearly rises to balance the effect of lower normal spending, and such incursions tend to be in rather specific regions rather than global. Iran has no friends other than Syria who would fight with it, pitted against the US, UK, Saudi, Pakistan and (potentially) Russia.
AceD3 - have a long think about which schools to use and which route to go before you start (and do the GAPAN test so that you can at least focus on your weaker areas). Why not do it in chunks, working between the modules so as to minimise your debt burden? Devoting a set period of time between contract work to each module (at an airfield with good instructors, availability and weather) will allow you to progress in minimal time.
Simply put, war does not cost the global economy as much in lost output as one might think: defence spending clearly rises to balance the effect of lower normal spending, and such incursions tend to be in rather specific regions rather than global. Iran has no friends other than Syria who would fight with it, pitted against the US, UK, Saudi, Pakistan and (potentially) Russia.
AceD3 - have a long think about which schools to use and which route to go before you start (and do the GAPAN test so that you can at least focus on your weaker areas). Why not do it in chunks, working between the modules so as to minimise your debt burden? Devoting a set period of time between contract work to each module (at an airfield with good instructors, availability and weather) will allow you to progress in minimal time.
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Actually, B-N has a good point. Iran may have few friends, but it has a lot of oil, and it is able to disrupt the transportation of oil from Iraq, Kuwait, UAE and eastern Saudi Arabia by closing the Straits of Hormuz. If that didn't send the oil price through the roof, then nothing would!
Scroggs
Scroggs
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Hmm hmm hmmm....that's my thoughts on the holding off fATPL.
Can someone give me a link to the GAPAN test info please? Can someone also explain GAPAN?
I don't start the ATPL ground school until November this year. It runs until July '09 where I'll sit the remainder of the exams. Following a successful pass, then I'll start the flying training. Most probably in the US due to costs etc.
So give it another 18 months from now, I should have a JAA fATPL albeit low hours.
So where do I go from here? I could do what others have done and get an instructor rating and instruct until I have a lot more hours, or I could pay for a type rating in the hope that I'll get lucky and get into an airline...who knows.
A friend of mine who flies an airbus from the UK, suggested it might be easier to get a job flying a citation etc..it could be based out the UK but at the end of the day, it's jet hours! And if needs must, could apply to an airline after a 1000 hours or so.
At the end of the day, I'm 33, have 13 years IT experience, no mortgage, no kids and no strings. If it all fails, I could at least fall back into IT until something else comes up.
You know what also and I'm not sure of the reasons why a lot of pprune users aren't flying in an airline, but at the end of my fATPL, I'll be the guy out there buying Flight International each week, emailing my CV to each and every airline listed...doing something about it. Afterall, I've just spent a bloody fortune, I'm not going to be sitting around waiting for them to come to me!
With all those 50+ year old captains out there that will be retiring soon, airlines will be recruiting younger FO's - I plan to be one of them.
Out of interest Tony Hirst
- how much are you thinking in your head?
These are my current fATPL calculations (all include some contingency, especially the ME IR)
ME IR (UK) - £20000
CPL (USA) - £8000
ME / Night - (USA )£2700
ATPL (UK) - £2500
MCC (UK) - £2000
Exams (UK) - £1000
CAA Flight Test Exams (inc 1 resit) - £2000
PPL Hour Building - £3000
Type Rating (USA/UK) - £15000 - 25000
Any takers?
Re-Heat Thanks for your advice
Can someone give me a link to the GAPAN test info please? Can someone also explain GAPAN?
I don't start the ATPL ground school until November this year. It runs until July '09 where I'll sit the remainder of the exams. Following a successful pass, then I'll start the flying training. Most probably in the US due to costs etc.
So give it another 18 months from now, I should have a JAA fATPL albeit low hours.
So where do I go from here? I could do what others have done and get an instructor rating and instruct until I have a lot more hours, or I could pay for a type rating in the hope that I'll get lucky and get into an airline...who knows.
A friend of mine who flies an airbus from the UK, suggested it might be easier to get a job flying a citation etc..it could be based out the UK but at the end of the day, it's jet hours! And if needs must, could apply to an airline after a 1000 hours or so.
At the end of the day, I'm 33, have 13 years IT experience, no mortgage, no kids and no strings. If it all fails, I could at least fall back into IT until something else comes up.
You know what also and I'm not sure of the reasons why a lot of pprune users aren't flying in an airline, but at the end of my fATPL, I'll be the guy out there buying Flight International each week, emailing my CV to each and every airline listed...doing something about it. Afterall, I've just spent a bloody fortune, I'm not going to be sitting around waiting for them to come to me!
With all those 50+ year old captains out there that will be retiring soon, airlines will be recruiting younger FO's - I plan to be one of them.
Out of interest Tony Hirst
a lot of expense (much more than whatever number you have in your head right now)
These are my current fATPL calculations (all include some contingency, especially the ME IR)
ME IR (UK) - £20000
CPL (USA) - £8000
ME / Night - (USA )£2700
ATPL (UK) - £2500
MCC (UK) - £2000
Exams (UK) - £1000
CAA Flight Test Exams (inc 1 resit) - £2000
PPL Hour Building - £3000
Type Rating (USA/UK) - £15000 - 25000
Any takers?
Re-Heat Thanks for your advice
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Siemens cutting 16,750 jobs worldwide to cut costs
Worked for Siemens on a big project and seemed to me like top and stable company. Can't believe they are affected too.
link
link
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Hey Rons22, good one to see you involved in a project with such a mutlinational
With regards to the company well maybe it's because they are prepared to take these hard decisions that keeps them afloat and dynamic. Compare that to our dithering political fools at Westminster where they delay the inevitable until it's too late to the boat has beegun to sink.
However such stories have been circulating for sometime with the BBC cleverly choosing to sideline them. The BBC have done much to distract the public from the perils that lay ahead and such stories or that of companies moving abroad are selectively ommitted. When things are so bad even the BBC can't sweep it under the mat anymore and then the stories and more importantly sentiment really comes out causing panic to a jittery public. At a time of such dire prospects only the BBC could increase executive salaries - but I digress.
Aviation will have to adopt a new business model sooner rather than later with personnel being outsourced i.e. agencies and brought in when and where they're needed. This will reduce the burden of cost on an airline and further prevent stoppages through industrial action. Equipment could also be subject to a different manner of utilisation. But most importantly they're going to have to really pull their finger out with regards to fuel burn or should I say type of fuel burn
With regards to the company well maybe it's because they are prepared to take these hard decisions that keeps them afloat and dynamic. Compare that to our dithering political fools at Westminster where they delay the inevitable until it's too late to the boat has beegun to sink. However such stories have been circulating for sometime with the BBC cleverly choosing to sideline them. The BBC have done much to distract the public from the perils that lay ahead and such stories or that of companies moving abroad are selectively ommitted. When things are so bad even the BBC can't sweep it under the mat anymore and then the stories and more importantly sentiment really comes out causing panic to a jittery public. At a time of such dire prospects only the BBC could increase executive salaries - but I digress.
Aviation will have to adopt a new business model sooner rather than later with personnel being outsourced i.e. agencies and brought in when and where they're needed. This will reduce the burden of cost on an airline and further prevent stoppages through industrial action. Equipment could also be subject to a different manner of utilisation. But most importantly they're going to have to really pull their finger out with regards to fuel burn or should I say type of fuel burn
I promise that I will once again be talking of the upturn. When it happens. I will once again be talking about 'a golden age for wannabe recruitment'. I'm really not some kind of panic laden doom pessimist.
I foresaw this recession and house price crash and sold my house last April and moved my pension as a result. I predicted Northern Rock and Bradford & Bingley months before. I said so and I wrote it here and elsewhere. The next part will be the recession and come the winter it will be the airline bankruptcies. How bad it will be is uncertain but it will be fairly close the early 1990's I think.
As people have said - timing is everything in this business. A lot of Wannabes still believe the rather outdated theory that by your early 30's you are getting too long in the tooth. This is nonsense. The most important thing is to be qualifying just as recruitment picks up and be fresh and ready to go. If I could predict trend timings accurately enough to be of any use to you though I wouldn't be here as I'd be a billionaire.
Take no comfort from how things are today. It is 2009 that you really need to worry about. That is shaping up to look really awful.
Just avoid big debts.
WWW
I foresaw this recession and house price crash and sold my house last April and moved my pension as a result. I predicted Northern Rock and Bradford & Bingley months before. I said so and I wrote it here and elsewhere. The next part will be the recession and come the winter it will be the airline bankruptcies. How bad it will be is uncertain but it will be fairly close the early 1990's I think.
As people have said - timing is everything in this business. A lot of Wannabes still believe the rather outdated theory that by your early 30's you are getting too long in the tooth. This is nonsense. The most important thing is to be qualifying just as recruitment picks up and be fresh and ready to go. If I could predict trend timings accurately enough to be of any use to you though I wouldn't be here as I'd be a billionaire.
Take no comfort from how things are today. It is 2009 that you really need to worry about. That is shaping up to look really awful.
Just avoid big debts.
WWW
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AceD3 - AVOID
AceD3 - You must be mad, as i posted before working for a small charter company based, we are having an increasing number of speculative CVs from numerous type rated and experienced pilots, aswell as usual newbies..
In my view, go ahead with the training if your main concern is not having regrets that you didnt try to achieve your dream, which in itself is a fair motivation. Do not go ahead if you want a job in aviation as you will not get one is the stark truth - Instructing, airlines - NO, Charter definately no due to CAA regs.
In my view, go ahead with the training if your main concern is not having regrets that you didnt try to achieve your dream, which in itself is a fair motivation. Do not go ahead if you want a job in aviation as you will not get one is the stark truth - Instructing, airlines - NO, Charter definately no due to CAA regs.
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t
I agree with it to an extent, people that cant manage there money, re-mortgage to the max to spend on a new Audi/BMW or just get a mortgage beyond there means shouldn't be allowed to get themselves in to a situation like that. It is the banks responsibility to asess these people and they have been too eager to hand out the cash. The blame lies with both partys equally in my oppinion, the banks have a responsibility to the share holders, the savers and the borrowers to be sensible with the float, and the borrowers have a responsibility to borrow within there means so that if the un-thinkable happens (which it inevitably has) they will still be able to make the repayments. All are at fault for the current climate....But it has happened before and it will happen again.
Paz
hirtysomething sorry but I couldnt resist to criticise your view quote ´The people who lose their homes are the people who should not have bought them in the first place´your comment seems to me selfish. I understand selfishness. But I can´t understand limiting others choices.
Paz
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I agree about the employment chances comment above. CAA issued about 1200 CPL and 1200 ATPL licenses in 2007 alone and similar numbers in 2005 or 2006. About 7000-8000 pliots in 3 years. 
And there were about 10,000 (before recession) pilot jobs in all of the UK.
Me thinks, even if no single pilot came out of the production line anymore, we have enough pilots for next 50 years.
Anyone can advise me on how to become CAA examiner as this is probably the only job where I can see the growing demand in future?
And there were about 10,000 (before recession) pilot jobs in all of the UK.
Me thinks, even if no single pilot came out of the production line anymore, we have enough pilots for next 50 years.
Anyone can advise me on how to become CAA examiner as this is probably the only job where I can see the growing demand in future?
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And the oil price is slowly creeping down again. Now back at $135 per barrel from the record $150 price last week. Short lived perhaps?? A minor blip in the grand scheme of things?? Will it hit $150?? Will Iran declare war on the world? If only we had a crystal ball! Never mind, im to Lidl or Aldi for a pint of milk and a loaf of bread...!
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Also being a member of local flying club, many of the good folks down there are very experienced pilots with many hundreds of hours, whom must have considered commercial at some point, but for various reasons decided not to follow.
I think flying and owning a PPL with an IMC is one of the best things for anybody considering this ATPL route. Dont give OFT and others all of your crispies, keep them, buy a share in an aircraft and get your kicks flying when you like and under your say so, DONT GET SUCKED INTO THE ATPL BLACKHOLE and end up eating dog food, feeling bitter.
I think 98% of people considering commercial now would be quite fulfilled by this, without kicking themselves afterwards.
I think flying and owning a PPL with an IMC is one of the best things for anybody considering this ATPL route. Dont give OFT and others all of your crispies, keep them, buy a share in an aircraft and get your kicks flying when you like and under your say so, DONT GET SUCKED INTO THE ATPL BLACKHOLE and end up eating dog food, feeling bitter.
I think 98% of people considering commercial now would be quite fulfilled by this, without kicking themselves afterwards.