Growing evidence that the downturn is upon us....
Even the Independent business writers have noticed what is about to happen:
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/bu...rn-850093.html
Airlines flying into far worse turbulence than predicted, analysts warn
By Danny Fortson, Business Correspondent
Thursday, 19 June 2008
The airline industry will be hit by a downturn far worse than even the most tumultuous periods in recent memory – the post- 9/11 years and the early Nineties recession – new research predicts.
Morgan Stanley slashed its earnings forecasts yesterday for several major European carriers, including British Airways and easyJet, in the latest of a flurry of gloomy assessments of the industry. Penelope Butcher, the analyst who authored the report, warned that although the record oil price has already led to two dozen bankruptcies worldwide in the first half of this year, the worst is yet to come... (article continues)
Every indicator is pointing to the fact that one of the Wannabe engines is about to fail - prepare yourself.
WWW
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/bu...rn-850093.html
Airlines flying into far worse turbulence than predicted, analysts warn
By Danny Fortson, Business Correspondent
Thursday, 19 June 2008
The airline industry will be hit by a downturn far worse than even the most tumultuous periods in recent memory – the post- 9/11 years and the early Nineties recession – new research predicts.
Morgan Stanley slashed its earnings forecasts yesterday for several major European carriers, including British Airways and easyJet, in the latest of a flurry of gloomy assessments of the industry. Penelope Butcher, the analyst who authored the report, warned that although the record oil price has already led to two dozen bankruptcies worldwide in the first half of this year, the worst is yet to come... (article continues)
Every indicator is pointing to the fact that one of the Wannabe engines is about to fail - prepare yourself.
WWW
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Wee Weasley Welshman
Every indicator is pointing to the fact that one of the Wannabe engines is about to fail - prepare yourself.
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cheers for the link www, interesting reading..
Today i was talking to one of those 'idiot bankers' that started all this mess and when i asked him what he would do if the company made him redundant he said "Well heli i would go on a world cruise for 2 years and then come back when all is well with the world again, remember i am a millionaire" - barsteward!
Today i was talking to one of those 'idiot bankers' that started all this mess and when i asked him what he would do if the company made him redundant he said "Well heli i would go on a world cruise for 2 years and then come back when all is well with the world again, remember i am a millionaire" - barsteward!
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Aer Lingus & Ryanair as well:
Aer Lingus, the Irish carrier, has been forced by record fuel costs to rein in ambitious growth plans prepared for its long-haul network. It is cutting long-haul capacity sharply (LA) in the coming winter season and is highly dependent on gaining all of its 2008 profits during the three summer months.
Aer Lingus had originally – with a current fleet of nine long-haul Airbus A330 jets – planned to take delivery of three new A330s in 2009 and to retire one older plane, leaving a fleet of 11.
Mr Corneille said the plan was now to maintain the fleet at nine next year. A second older plane would be retired and one of the new deliveries from Airbus would be deferred to 2010.
Air Canada plans to slash 2,000 jobs and reduce capacity by 7 per cent, mostly on US routes, while rival Northwest Airlines stepped up its plans to trim flight schedules, as the carriers race to keep pace with fuel costs that have threatened the industry’s financial stability.
Aer Lingus, the Irish carrier, has been forced by record fuel costs to rein in ambitious growth plans prepared for its long-haul network. It is cutting long-haul capacity sharply (LA) in the coming winter season and is highly dependent on gaining all of its 2008 profits during the three summer months.
Aer Lingus had originally – with a current fleet of nine long-haul Airbus A330 jets – planned to take delivery of three new A330s in 2009 and to retire one older plane, leaving a fleet of 11.
Mr Corneille said the plan was now to maintain the fleet at nine next year. A second older plane would be retired and one of the new deliveries from Airbus would be deferred to 2010.
Air Canada plans to slash 2,000 jobs and reduce capacity by 7 per cent, mostly on US routes, while rival Northwest Airlines stepped up its plans to trim flight schedules, as the carriers race to keep pace with fuel costs that have threatened the industry’s financial stability.
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GOOD News!
A record level of retail spending in May has provided a respite from gloomy economic predictions
Sales rose by 3.5% during May, the strongest monthly growth since January 1986, statistical office figures show.
Shocked analysts said the figures ran contrary to signs of a slowing economy and weak consumer confidence.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/7462945.stm
Sales rose by 3.5% during May, the strongest monthly growth since January 1986, statistical office figures show.
Shocked analysts said the figures ran contrary to signs of a slowing economy and weak consumer confidence.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/7462945.stm
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Rvr800
"Good News"
Oh if only.
A fair proportion of that growth is probably inflation itself. It could also be a last fling by shoppers before they batten down the hatches.
Oh if only.
A fair proportion of that growth is probably inflation itself. It could also be a last fling by shoppers before they batten down the hatches.
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RV8 as a result of the strong retail sales data and the ongoing concerns about inflation the UK money markets are now factoring in 4 (yes four) rate rises in the next 12 months..... good news.... unless you have a mortgage... or a big loan related to flight training. As a result of this bank share prices are down 6-7% in 2 days on fears of bad debts and airline share prices continue to fall....
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Oh is that all?
Believe me,some things will get alot worth over the next 6 months.
I see at least 1 major US airline (NW, UA, US??) going down.
But guess what? The housing Cumulonimbus is making place for a recovering Nimbostratus but it'll take time before we get out of the energy crisis we're in at this very moment.
I guess that the OPEC meeting over this weekend will play a crucial role. OPEC is expected to announce a (temporary) rise in oil production. This move is not a bid to bring back a balance in demand/supply but to help OPEC's number one customer out of a crisis. News is the only thing that can change the oil prices right now, and good news can help alot to restore a healthy balance.
Anyone read it in the headlines yesterday? Americans drove 1.4 billion less miles in April 2008. With cars averaging 20mpg, that's 70 million gallons of gas saved over a month and a bit over twice as many gallons of crude! Which approximately equals to 4 million barrels, or a reduction of 0.5~0.6% in total oil consumption in the U.S. compared to a year earlier, if we only consider what's being saved on the roads. With all the airlines grounding up to 25% of their fleets, I see demand for Jet fuel decreasing as well. All in all, oil demand should be decreasing by up to 2% compared to 2007 in the US during the summerly months.
How long is this going to last?
Another 3 months? 6 months? I think that it'll last till December and that we'll see oil start its plundge towards 80$ around Christmas. We have interesting times ahead, and I'm looking forward to see what tricks airlines will come up with and what the recovery will look like.
Pilot jobs for pilots victim of lay-offs?
I talked to a few US Airways pilots a few days ago, and they looked very excited when talking about the Middle East, more specifically EK... so not much to worry about for these folks. By the way, Dubai is expected to sign a 3-digit order for their new LCC operation at the Farnborough show.
And no one noticed this one?
http://ca.news.finance.yahoo.com/s/2...10-60-xrs.html
Believe me,some things will get alot worth over the next 6 months.
I see at least 1 major US airline (NW, UA, US??) going down.
But guess what? The housing Cumulonimbus is making place for a recovering Nimbostratus but it'll take time before we get out of the energy crisis we're in at this very moment.
I guess that the OPEC meeting over this weekend will play a crucial role. OPEC is expected to announce a (temporary) rise in oil production. This move is not a bid to bring back a balance in demand/supply but to help OPEC's number one customer out of a crisis. News is the only thing that can change the oil prices right now, and good news can help alot to restore a healthy balance.
Anyone read it in the headlines yesterday? Americans drove 1.4 billion less miles in April 2008. With cars averaging 20mpg, that's 70 million gallons of gas saved over a month and a bit over twice as many gallons of crude! Which approximately equals to 4 million barrels, or a reduction of 0.5~0.6% in total oil consumption in the U.S. compared to a year earlier, if we only consider what's being saved on the roads. With all the airlines grounding up to 25% of their fleets, I see demand for Jet fuel decreasing as well. All in all, oil demand should be decreasing by up to 2% compared to 2007 in the US during the summerly months.
How long is this going to last?
Another 3 months? 6 months? I think that it'll last till December and that we'll see oil start its plundge towards 80$ around Christmas. We have interesting times ahead, and I'm looking forward to see what tricks airlines will come up with and what the recovery will look like.
Pilot jobs for pilots victim of lay-offs?
I talked to a few US Airways pilots a few days ago, and they looked very excited when talking about the Middle East, more specifically EK... so not much to worry about for these folks. By the way, Dubai is expected to sign a 3-digit order for their new LCC operation at the Farnborough show.
And no one noticed this one?
TORONTO - Bombardier Aerospace's (TSX: BBD-B.TO) sale of up to 110 Learjet 60 XR mid-sized business aircraft is the largest Learjet order in history, David Coleal, vice-president of the Kansas-based Learjet division, said Friday.
It comes on the heels of another order for 20 of the jets, said Coleal, general manager of operations in Wichita, Kan., where the jets are built.
Twenty-five of the orders announced Friday are firm, worth US$340 million, and the 85 conditional orders would raise the value of the contract to US$1.5 billion, Bombardier said.
The purchase by an undisclosed European customer is "tremendous from the standpoint of the demand for this product in this market segment," Coleal said from Wichita.
While it's a good-sized order, a Toronto-based analyst said it has added significance because it indicates the corporate jet sales cycle still has some steam in it.
It comes on the heels of another order for 20 of the jets, said Coleal, general manager of operations in Wichita, Kan., where the jets are built.
Twenty-five of the orders announced Friday are firm, worth US$340 million, and the 85 conditional orders would raise the value of the contract to US$1.5 billion, Bombardier said.
The purchase by an undisclosed European customer is "tremendous from the standpoint of the demand for this product in this market segment," Coleal said from Wichita.
While it's a good-sized order, a Toronto-based analyst said it has added significance because it indicates the corporate jet sales cycle still has some steam in it.
Last edited by nich-av; 21st Jun 2008 at 05:17.
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JEDDAH, Saudi Arabia (CNN) -- Saudi King Abdullah confirmed Sunday that his country will increase daily oil production from 9 million barrels to 9.7 million in the near future to counter the sharp rise in international oil prices.
Saudi Arabia has announced an increase in oil production in a bid to ease the pressure on oil prices.
The Saudi petroleum minister, Ali I. Al-Naimi, said the country will reach the 9.7 million level by July. The announcement comes after Saudi officials announced modest increases.
It would be Saudi Arabia's highest production rate since 1981.
White House Deputy Press Secretary Tony Fratto praised the step, saying, "Any increase in production in today's oil market is welcome. It is important that we also take steps to increase domestic production and our refining capacity."
Meanwhile, the average price of gasoline in the U.S. rose nearly 10 cents in the past two weeks to almost $4.10 a gallon for self-serve regular, according to a national survey released Sunday.
The survey showed the national average was just a fraction of a cent under $4.10 a gallon, said survey publisher Trilby Lundberg. That is up 9.7 cents a gallon from the same survey two weeks ago, Lundberg said.
Don't Miss
Sen. Charles Schumer, D-New York,(personal comment: see? it's the government that's behind it!) downplayed the Saudi increase.
"Nice try, but no cigar. When gas is at $4 per gallon, demand increases almost daily, (personal comment: I think there is a contradiction there) and the Saudis have millions of barrels per day more in spare capacity," he said.
"This isn't nearly good enough."
Al-Naimi, the petroleum minister, also said the Saudi government will invest in oil projects that would allow Saudi Arabia to have the capacity to produce 12.5 million barrels per day by the end of next year.
King Abdullah's announcement came at the end of the Jeddah energy summit, where he also called for OPEC to set aside $1 billion for a strategy to ease the oil price crisis.
He said $500 million should be given to developing nations to help them get the energy they need.
King Abdullah said there are "many factors that made oil prices high." Along with increased demand, he also cited oil speculators and an increase in taxes in consumer nations.
"Now we see a lot of people point the finger at OPEC as it is solely responsible for this," he said.
The king's statement came a day after U.S. Energy Secretary Samuel Bodman, attending the summit, blamed the record oil prices on lack of production.
"All nations must be better at conservation, and the U.S. is at the top of that list," said Bodman, who met with journalists ahead of the international meeting of oil producing and consuming nations focusing on high oil prices.
Some observers have blamed speculators for driving up oil prices. A key adviser to Saudi Arabia's oil minister said Friday that a number of factors, including speculators and currency fluctuations, are to blame for rising oil prices.
"We need stability," Dr. Ibrahim al Muhanna said, adding that Saudi Arabia would like to see producers, consumers and distributors cooperate.
But Bodman said he did not believe that they are the cause. Since 2003, he said, global demand for oil has increased because of industry in China, India and the Middle East. But from 2005 to 2007, there was very little increase in supply.
Saudi Arabia has announced an increase in oil production in a bid to ease the pressure on oil prices.
The Saudi petroleum minister, Ali I. Al-Naimi, said the country will reach the 9.7 million level by July. The announcement comes after Saudi officials announced modest increases.
It would be Saudi Arabia's highest production rate since 1981.
White House Deputy Press Secretary Tony Fratto praised the step, saying, "Any increase in production in today's oil market is welcome. It is important that we also take steps to increase domestic production and our refining capacity."
Meanwhile, the average price of gasoline in the U.S. rose nearly 10 cents in the past two weeks to almost $4.10 a gallon for self-serve regular, according to a national survey released Sunday.
The survey showed the national average was just a fraction of a cent under $4.10 a gallon, said survey publisher Trilby Lundberg. That is up 9.7 cents a gallon from the same survey two weeks ago, Lundberg said.
Don't Miss
- [*]
Sen. Charles Schumer, D-New York,(personal comment: see? it's the government that's behind it!) downplayed the Saudi increase.
"Nice try, but no cigar. When gas is at $4 per gallon, demand increases almost daily, (personal comment: I think there is a contradiction there) and the Saudis have millions of barrels per day more in spare capacity," he said.
"This isn't nearly good enough."
Al-Naimi, the petroleum minister, also said the Saudi government will invest in oil projects that would allow Saudi Arabia to have the capacity to produce 12.5 million barrels per day by the end of next year.
King Abdullah's announcement came at the end of the Jeddah energy summit, where he also called for OPEC to set aside $1 billion for a strategy to ease the oil price crisis.
He said $500 million should be given to developing nations to help them get the energy they need.
King Abdullah said there are "many factors that made oil prices high." Along with increased demand, he also cited oil speculators and an increase in taxes in consumer nations.
"Now we see a lot of people point the finger at OPEC as it is solely responsible for this," he said.
The king's statement came a day after U.S. Energy Secretary Samuel Bodman, attending the summit, blamed the record oil prices on lack of production.
"All nations must be better at conservation, and the U.S. is at the top of that list," said Bodman, who met with journalists ahead of the international meeting of oil producing and consuming nations focusing on high oil prices.
Some observers have blamed speculators for driving up oil prices. A key adviser to Saudi Arabia's oil minister said Friday that a number of factors, including speculators and currency fluctuations, are to blame for rising oil prices.
"We need stability," Dr. Ibrahim al Muhanna said, adding that Saudi Arabia would like to see producers, consumers and distributors cooperate.
But Bodman said he did not believe that they are the cause. Since 2003, he said, global demand for oil has increased because of industry in China, India and the Middle East. But from 2005 to 2007, there was very little increase in supply.
A CNN reporter predicted all transportation to be grounded by October 2009 in the U.S., and a failing economy. He used as main arguments the fact that China and India's increasing oil demand is pushing the prices high up.
But can Chinese households afford oil at 150$ let alone 200$??
Can they afford to pay gas at 5$ a gallon when they earn only 300$ a month?
I don't think so.
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Oil price up despite Saudi pledge
Oil prices have risen after emergency talks among the world's top oil powers and leading consuming nations over the weekend ended with no real resolution.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/7468555.stm
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hi guys and girls in every dark cloud there is a silver lining,i happened to have bought oil shares at a low price just when bush had invaded Iraq,now guess who is smiling all the way to the bank,news that oil prices will hit 250 a barrel is music to my years
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of course people will always fly - but until we can work out how to burn cabbage juice in gas turbines, the number taking to the skies will be tied to the price of that sweet , sweet crude.
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i am a pilot......and one thing is people will always fly relax.....and if all jobs will be gone i will just be sitting happily looking at my stocks grow
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And I suppose that you don't give a sh.i.t that there are people that can't afford to have heating in their house anymore in the winter and die by freezing
You are quite right i dont give a there are many cheap methods of heating a house,wannabees please stop whining its too much....keep of WWW armchair economics genius,
By the way WWW since you are so good at fortune telling why not quit your job as pilot work as a financial consultant to the big financial organizations that collapsed you would make shead loads of cash and probably buy your self a jet.Oh i have remembered you are only good at cutting news paper and magazine articles and scare away the wannabes
I have worked for hedge funds, family runs one. and wannabes i can tell you there is nothing to fear,
You had it first here.....there is a very well oiled European family setting up a low cost business jet company flying embrears firm orders of atleast 30 have been cornfimed and a possible 60 more,i cant disclose further....something in the line leaking company secrets,to all wanabees keep your head down get your licence,its not all doom and gloom mark my words
WWW all you say has some bit of truth in general things are not how you potray them,please dont scare away newbies with newspaper cut outs
You are quite right i dont give a
there are many cheap methods of heating a house,wannabees please stop whining its too much....keep of WWW armchair economics genius,By the way WWW since you are so good at fortune telling why not quit your job as pilot work as a financial consultant to the big financial organizations that collapsed you would make shead loads of cash and probably buy your self a jet.Oh i have remembered you are only good at cutting news paper and magazine articles and scare away the wannabes
I have worked for hedge funds, family runs one. and wannabes i can tell you there is nothing to fear,
You had it first here.....there is a very well oiled European family setting up a low cost business jet company flying embrears firm orders of atleast 30 have been cornfimed and a possible 60 more,i cant disclose further....something in the line leaking company secrets,to all wanabees keep your head down get your licence,its not all doom and gloom mark my words
WWW all you say has some bit of truth in general things are not how you potray them,please dont scare away newbies with newspaper cut outs
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Sawaya;
If you really are as minted from these oil stocks of yours, why don't you cash some of them in and get on the 'easyJet' ATP scheme?
Troll or Bull****e - can't make my mind up just yet.
you can all, rant all you want,but fact is there will be more guys willing to go for it than ATP can handle,i am now busy looking for cash,if i dont get the cash to bad for me
Troll or Bull****e - can't make my mind up just yet.
