Growing evidence that the downturn is upon us....
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I was referring to Pilapt tests, i.e. concentration, hand eye coordination and ability to retain information to name but a few. Wouldn't you say they are good factors to extrapolate whether someone will be of any use in a cockpit, strictly in terms of ability?
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Perspective
I think it was Del Amitri (an infamous scottish philosopher) who once said:
"Nothing really matters, nothing matters at all
The needle returns to the start of the song
And we all sing along like before."
An economic "downturn" is happening right now. Airlines are going bust and more will. The immediate future is not rosey. However, as my girlfriend always says "what goes down must always come up at some point".
Good time to be popping out of the training system with £80k debt, prob not. Keep the faith though, stay focussed always invest in yourself and stay positive and when the timing is right there will be a job.
To give up on ones dream is madness, to pursue ones dream without weighing up all the odds is also madness. At the moment there are more odds to way up. Taking a carte blanche view that we are all doomed though is just as bad as blind faith. Come on peeps, lighten up!
MFWF
"Nothing really matters, nothing matters at all
The needle returns to the start of the song
And we all sing along like before."
An economic "downturn" is happening right now. Airlines are going bust and more will. The immediate future is not rosey. However, as my girlfriend always says "what goes down must always come up at some point".
Good time to be popping out of the training system with £80k debt, prob not. Keep the faith though, stay focussed always invest in yourself and stay positive and when the timing is right there will be a job.
To give up on ones dream is madness, to pursue ones dream without weighing up all the odds is also madness. At the moment there are more odds to way up. Taking a carte blanche view that we are all doomed though is just as bad as blind faith. Come on peeps, lighten up!
MFWF
Last edited by mustflywillfly; 10th Apr 2008 at 09:04.
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Doomed ! ......... doomed!
Twelve pages of posts by and large predicting the end of the world as we know it, things are not looking to good for the near future, however undoubtidly things will pick up in a year or so when people cop on to the fact that things are not as bad as the doom merchants are saying and start to spend a little money.
I have to say that from the posts above WWW,s predictions are enough to make the faint hearted put knife to wrist, but look on the bright side mate you are at the front of the line if some one decides to remake Dad's Army......... that's if you can do a scotish accent!
I have to say that from the posts above WWW,s predictions are enough to make the faint hearted put knife to wrist, but look on the bright side mate you are at the front of the line if some one decides to remake Dad's Army......... that's if you can do a scotish accent!
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undoubtedly things will pick up in a year or so
After reading all the news articles about the problems with Northwest, Jetbleu, easyJet, Skybus, Oasis etc, all CEO's seem to agree that despite the slowing economy the load factors are still reasonable good but they can't cope with the fuel prices. From what I've read there is not a single airline in the US that has a viable long term plan for survival. The outlook for the oil price: not many 'experts' are willing to do predictions and it's far from an exact science, but the outlook is more bullish than ever. Goldman&Sachs said last month the oil price could reach $200 in 2010, and as soon as this year in case of a supply disruption. There is simply not much capacity left, basically the whole world is pumping as much as they can, except maybe Saudi Arabia which has a little to spare. Oil company's aren't planning to boost production, simply because they can't offset all the depleting fields with enough new production. At the same time global demand is booming, especially from Asia.
We are moving from an era with cheap, abundant oil to an era of expensive, scarce oil. And this is an huge change. Especially for aviation, but for example also for the people in third world country's who can't afford their food anymore.
Last edited by saccade; 10th Apr 2008 at 11:41.
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Silverjet the latest to join the list of those in trouble......
http://business.timesonline.co.uk/to...cle3718954.ece
http://business.timesonline.co.uk/to...cle3718954.ece
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Flaperon75
Sliverjet may be having difficlties in the present market but I think that your statement that they are "in trouble" is a bit pesimistic.
Undoubtedly the current situation will hit the business travel sector harder than other sectors of the market but it would seem to me that you are rather looking on the dark side.
Perhaps the management are planning to change the business plan in light of the current situation to............ shall we call it "Easy Atlantic"?
Silverjet is small enough to change business direction quickly if required.
Undoubtedly the current situation will hit the business travel sector harder than other sectors of the market but it would seem to me that you are rather looking on the dark side.
Perhaps the management are planning to change the business plan in light of the current situation to............ shall we call it "Easy Atlantic"?
Silverjet is small enough to change business direction quickly if required.
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Well...... they had long predicted that March would be their first break even month and have now recently reported that they failed to acheive this.
Silverjet can't continue to run as a loss making business indefinately and according to the news item above it seems the sharks are now circling....
Silverjet can't continue to run as a loss making business indefinately and according to the news item above it seems the sharks are now circling....
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"We are moving from an era with cheap, abundant oil to an era of expensive, scarce oil. And this is an huge change"
Well, we all knew it was'nt gonna last forever. Now, where did I put that perpetual motion machine
Well, we all knew it was'nt gonna last forever. Now, where did I put that perpetual motion machine
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Sharks or good business?
At the moment with "slots" in very short supply at UK airports merger is the name of the game if you want to expand.
It would seem to me that following the takeover of GB airways by easyjet expanding into the long haul sector would be the next logical step.
(please note that the GB LHR slots were not part of the easy jet deal and went to an American airline for a considerable sum)
To this end Siverjet must be a prime target with routes out of a big Easy jet base.
It would seem to me that following the takeover of GB airways by easyjet expanding into the long haul sector would be the next logical step.
(please note that the GB LHR slots were not part of the easy jet deal and went to an American airline for a considerable sum)
To this end Siverjet must be a prime target with routes out of a big Easy jet base.
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99jolegg,
the 'risk' is no different with an integrated candidate. any assessment prior to the course was done by a flight school with a huge vested interest. It has little credibility. Not knocking integrated courses - spend your money how you like.
Flight tests and exams on the other hand are done by an independent authority. Same standard for everybody in the UK.
It’s the equivalent of Cambridge or Oxford (the real Oxford, not the flying school) saying that they only want people from private school who once passed some puny entrance test, and not caring what their A-level results actually were. That would be ridiculous wouldn’t it?
the 'risk' is no different with an integrated candidate. any assessment prior to the course was done by a flight school with a huge vested interest. It has little credibility. Not knocking integrated courses - spend your money how you like.
Flight tests and exams on the other hand are done by an independent authority. Same standard for everybody in the UK.
It’s the equivalent of Cambridge or Oxford (the real Oxford, not the flying school) saying that they only want people from private school who once passed some puny entrance test, and not caring what their A-level results actually were. That would be ridiculous wouldn’t it?
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It would seem to me that following the takeover of GB airways by easyjet expanding into the long haul sector would be the next logical step
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What will the FTO's do viz Cost of Training ?
If we accept the rather inconvenient truth,
(rather difficult to ignore), that a significant economic downturn is upon us. And we want, nay need, with every beat of the heart to become a commercial pilot, I assume the logical route would be to slowdown our rate of training, and focus a bit more on the pennies.
So my question is what are the real economics of a FTO and how far can they go to reduce prices and still remain in business.
If we take a typical training flight hour in a PA28 at say currently £130 /hr, what is likely to be the cost build up.
I guess they are something like;
Variable: Fuel £25.00
Instructor £20.00
Maintenance £10.00
Land fees etc £10.00
Total Variable £65.00
Fixed: Depreciation £20.00
Admin £10.00
Overheads £10.00
Total Fixed £40.00
Total Cost £105.00
Profit £25.00 @ £130.00 /hr
N.B. these figures are my own work of fiction; I have no real knowledge or experience.
But if they are half way accurate then in the short term an FTO can forgo most profit and ignore depreciation (bit of a problem if need new aircraft in LT). So we have around £40.00 to discount off the cost of the flying hour, in order to get bums on seats.
This case is for a UK modular FTO.
What do the experts / wannabee experts think?
(rather difficult to ignore), that a significant economic downturn is upon us. And we want, nay need, with every beat of the heart to become a commercial pilot, I assume the logical route would be to slowdown our rate of training, and focus a bit more on the pennies.So my question is what are the real economics of a FTO and how far can they go to reduce prices and still remain in business.
If we take a typical training flight hour in a PA28 at say currently £130 /hr, what is likely to be the cost build up.
I guess they are something like;
Variable: Fuel £25.00
Instructor £20.00
Maintenance £10.00
Land fees etc £10.00
Total Variable £65.00
Fixed: Depreciation £20.00
Admin £10.00
Overheads £10.00
Total Fixed £40.00
Total Cost £105.00
Profit £25.00 @ £130.00 /hr
N.B. these figures are my own work of fiction; I have no real knowledge or experience.
But if they are half way accurate then in the short term an FTO can forgo most profit and ignore depreciation (bit of a problem if need new aircraft in LT). So we have around £40.00 to discount off the cost of the flying hour, in order to get bums on seats.
This case is for a UK modular FTO.
What do the experts / wannabee experts think?
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Probably best to ask the guys that own there own, i can hardly see the FTO's being very forthcoming with the figures. Any 152/172/pa28 owners out there that could shed some light?
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Riight rudder
On the face of it you are correct but Sllverjet is quite small and it would not take very long to change the cabin to something more in keeping with a LCC.
All of a sudden intsant slots and you have transatlantic low cost all fed by a european low cost network.
Just becuuse an airlne is regarded as a LCC it will not nessesaraly stick to that one idea, a business should lead the market......... not follow.
All of a sudden intsant slots and you have transatlantic low cost all fed by a european low cost network.
Just becuuse an airlne is regarded as a LCC it will not nessesaraly stick to that one idea, a business should lead the market......... not follow.
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Take this for what it is worth - of the group of 30 I started work with in the City, 10% of the group have been laid off in the past 3 months...
And City folk travelling for business pay a great deal towards the industry...
And City folk travelling for business pay a great deal towards the industry...
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Happy fran
Not a bad crack at the costings however you need to add £5/hour to cover engine overhaul and £8/hour for insurance.
The maintenance is real can of worms I am looking at the slow death of a once proud local FTO that is under pressure and letting maintenance standards slip, once an aircraft "gets away" from you in maintenance terms it will cost as much to get it back up to a good standard as it will to buy the thing in the first place.
The first thing to slip is the outward apperance, then reliability and if not checked safety.
Over the last few years I have spent a lot of money on maintenance of my fleet and now he costs have dropped dramaticly and reliability improved, I expect to see a number of other company's who have not invested in maintenance drop by the way side as the current situation bites along with the introduction of EASA part M that will drive up costs and tighten up maintenance practices.
What I do expect to see is a lot of cheap aircraft on the market as these issues bite, however all of them will be "old doggs" just waiting to cost the new owners a fortune in engineering bills.
The fact of the matter is that no one is getting rich in the GA business, under investment is rife and there is no room to cut costs just to as you say "put bums on seats" if you want to be in business next week.
If you a realy good deal comes your way I would guess that it will be cash up front and the company will be gone tomorrow along with most of your money.
The maintenance is real can of worms I am looking at the slow death of a once proud local FTO that is under pressure and letting maintenance standards slip, once an aircraft "gets away" from you in maintenance terms it will cost as much to get it back up to a good standard as it will to buy the thing in the first place.
The first thing to slip is the outward apperance, then reliability and if not checked safety.
Over the last few years I have spent a lot of money on maintenance of my fleet and now he costs have dropped dramaticly and reliability improved, I expect to see a number of other company's who have not invested in maintenance drop by the way side as the current situation bites along with the introduction of EASA part M that will drive up costs and tighten up maintenance practices.
What I do expect to see is a lot of cheap aircraft on the market as these issues bite, however all of them will be "old doggs" just waiting to cost the new owners a fortune in engineering bills.
The fact of the matter is that no one is getting rich in the GA business, under investment is rife and there is no room to cut costs just to as you say "put bums on seats" if you want to be in business next week.
If you a realy good deal comes your way I would guess that it will be cash up front and the company will be gone tomorrow along with most of your money.
You're on drugs if you think easyJet would be interested in SilverJet.
1) easyJet are tightening belts by disposing of the Boeing and A321 aircraft more quickly - adding some ageing 757's don't fit that plan
2) Luton ain't slot constricted and SilverJet don't hold any slot rights and even if they did then by going under those slots would be available for EZY to use for no cost - LTN ain't LHR !
3) Maxjet have gone bust, Oasis have gone Bust, Eos are bizzarely offering a free iPod Classic to encourage bookings, SilverJet are struggling.... Is this low-cost First/Business airline model good or poo...? Meanwhile EZY and RYR keep filing profits and keep growing.
4) EZY CEO Andy Harrison has said in the press and to my own ears that EZY has no intention of ever doing longhaul. I believe him.
And so back to the point:
House prices in the US, UK, Spain and Ireland are crashing and the US is certainly in recession with many believing the UK will follow soon. THIS IS 1990! Please take the trouble to learn the history regarding airlines from that period. By so doing you stand to learn from history. A valuable thing to be able to do and very rare.
Try looking up Air Europe, Laker, Caledonian and Dan Air for starters.
It is entirely consistent with history that several UK airlines will not be trading within the next 2 years. All will have hundreds of experienced and rated pilots.
Undertake and fund your training with this distinct possibility in mind. That's all I ask.
WWW
1) easyJet are tightening belts by disposing of the Boeing and A321 aircraft more quickly - adding some ageing 757's don't fit that plan
2) Luton ain't slot constricted and SilverJet don't hold any slot rights and even if they did then by going under those slots would be available for EZY to use for no cost - LTN ain't LHR !
3) Maxjet have gone bust, Oasis have gone Bust, Eos are bizzarely offering a free iPod Classic to encourage bookings, SilverJet are struggling.... Is this low-cost First/Business airline model good or poo...? Meanwhile EZY and RYR keep filing profits and keep growing.
4) EZY CEO Andy Harrison has said in the press and to my own ears that EZY has no intention of ever doing longhaul. I believe him.
And so back to the point:
House prices in the US, UK, Spain and Ireland are crashing and the US is certainly in recession with many believing the UK will follow soon. THIS IS 1990! Please take the trouble to learn the history regarding airlines from that period. By so doing you stand to learn from history. A valuable thing to be able to do and very rare.
Try looking up Air Europe, Laker, Caledonian and Dan Air for starters.
It is entirely consistent with history that several UK airlines will not be trading within the next 2 years. All will have hundreds of experienced and rated pilots.
Undertake and fund your training with this distinct possibility in mind. That's all I ask.
WWW
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Frontier Airlines look to be scarcely treading water:
http://www.flightglobal.com/articles...perations.html
http://www.flightglobal.com/articles...perations.html
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1) easyJet are tightening belts by disposing of the Boeing and A321 aircraft more quickly - adding some ageing 757's don't fit that plan
3) Maxjet have gone bust, Oasis have gone Bust, Eos are bizzarely offering a free iPod Classic to encourage bookings, SilverJet are struggling.... Is this low-cost First/Business airline model good or poo...? Meanwhile EZY and RYR keep filing profits and keep growing.
3) Maxjet have gone bust, Oasis have gone Bust, Eos are bizzarely offering a free iPod Classic to encourage bookings, SilverJet are struggling.... Is this low-cost First/Business airline model good or poo...? Meanwhile EZY and RYR keep filing profits and keep growing.
3) MAXjet were offering a terrible product at an odd price, with a bog-standard service. eos and Silverjet offer a premium product with strong service at a price less than BA - very different markets, and ones that could be aided by those looking for cheaper fares than BA in a downturn. The jury on their model is still out, and cannot be compared to Oasis and MAXjet in any way.