Budding weather forecasters
 

Just for a bit of fun and a different type of thread (if anyone is interested) I thought it might be worth having a go at some amateur weather forecasting.

So how about anyone having a shot at what the weather will be like in six days time - Wednesday 7th March - lets say for a trip from Exeter to Duxford.

Six days becasue there is a reasonable amount of data around that looks that far ahead but it all needs some interpretation and perhaps some personal insight!

I reckon a good forecast should deal with the winds, cloud type and tops and bottoms and whether it will be possible to make the flight in VMC.

Anyone willing to have a go now or nearer the time and to justify their forecast?

Go to here and enter EGTE in the box, select Meteogram 0-180hrs, then Choose from Below, and check

MSLP (SFC)
Temp (2m AGL)
Accm Precip (SFC)
Total cloud cover (SFC)
Wind flags
Wind speed

or whatever (but you can't mix 2D and 3D items on the same graph).

Wed 7th March looks like the cloud will be on the deck, rain, and from the wind change mid-day it looks like a front will be passing through.

The above is from the GFS model.

The UKMO MSLP charts don't go up to 7th March so one can't cross-check.

Repeat the above for a few locations along the route, and for the destination.

I wouldn't plan this flight VFR.

However, forecasting 6 days ahead in the current unstable weather is impossible.