Future of GA
 

Occasionally there are threads here about the future of GA and how long it will be around. Has anybody seen this chart?

Scroll down:
https://ukfires.org/absolute-zero/

Specifically the section about flying: “All airports except Heathrow, Glasgow and Belfast close with transfers by rail”. (by 2029)

It also says 'All shipping declines to Zero' on the next line.
Yes, right.
I read recently that a cruise ship leaving harbour generates more CO2 than the WHOLE of UK GA in a year.
I confidently predict our school fleet will still be operating on 2029, with the same aircraft.

TOO

"All airports except Heathrow, Glasgow and Belfast close with transfers by rail”. (by 2029)"
There's NO possibility the undersea rail tunnels to the Inner and Outer Hebrides, Orkney, and Shetland Islands will be completed by even 2030.

Sounds like the puritans have come up with a plan to bore us all to death

I'm not saying I agree with this forecast, but what may be zero in decades to come will be public tolerance for general aviation. It may not be a prohibition, but that a lack of public tolerance, and facilities, will make GA very expensive. I know that the vast majority of residents in the Toronto area are not the least concerned about the loss of three local GA airports I have flown out of in past decades, with two more in real jeopardy. And that's only for the land value, nothing to do with pollution from airplanes. GA will be around for a time to come, due to the efforts of dedicated owners, but it won't be as common as I recall in my youth. It'll be a lot more effort and expense to fly in the decades to come, and some pilots won't continue to make the effort against public shaming. Once the drivers of huge car and non essential trucks, recreational boaters and other non essential petroleum users, begin to be restricted by environmental concerns, they won't step up to ease a path for continued GA operations, while their own toys are grounded...

That is very far-fetched. But also far fetched is the idea in 15 years time we'll all just accept driving electric cars to the airfield to fly GA aircraft that burn 60 litres of low lead fuel an hour. Changes are coming in GA and we will need to embrace them to stay relevant alongside somewhat more eco-friendly Gliding and Microlighting, some local flying schools have already invested in lower fuel consumption aircraft, the rest are just delaying an inevitable decision point in the not too distant future.

A major challenge for GA has been, and increasingly will be, that while an increasing market size eagerly funds the development of mass production modern economical technology cars, the market for GA planes is already small, and decreasing in size. New development of GA planes is very expensive, particularly for certified airplanes, with costly compliance to government standards. Electric airplanes are very attractive, and actually practical for very irregular (private) use. However, for commercial, or flight training purposes, it's pretty challenging to make money with a new, expensive electric plane, which has to sit charging for hours between revenue flights.

The present airplane certification requirements are not well suited to apply to electric planes. New requirements will come, and are encouraged by the regulators, but still are an investment for a small industry compared to making millions of electric cars.

Autonomous electric aircraft may make the market (even though maybe a slightly different one) much larger.

Alternatively, a collective of highly talented, committed and educated individuals, who don't much like the idea of the planet melting??


UK Fires is a collaboration between the universities of Cambridge, Oxford, Nottingham, Bath and Imperial College London.

We are funded by EPSRC. The Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council is the main funding body for engineering and physical sciences research in the UK. By investing and postgraduate training, we are building the knowledge and skills needed to address the scientific and technological challenges facing the nation.

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I think that the last 18 months of scaremongering projections and demonstrably inaccurate computer models have shown very clearly how "a collective of highly talented, committed and educated individuals" can be entirely out of touch with reality. My vote is with the boring puritans theory.

So the UK currently produces 64% of the food it uses according to The Grocer . Given that shipping from Europe and the wider world will stop by 2049 the Channel Tunnel is going to be very, very, very busy.

In 8 years beef and lamb consumption will be reduced by 50%? Don't these people realise that only lamb grows on the many hills and dales of England, Scotland and Wales? You can plant crops there but they won't grow!

All energy to be "non emitting" by 2050 even as electricity consumption increases. "Aye, right" as a Scottish pal would say I'm assuming that they will be supporting the building of numerous nuclear power stations as the alternative would be to cover the food producing fields with PV panels and wind turbines.

Thankfully I will probably be dead by the time 2050 comes around.

These cuts are needed to release energy for near-space adventure flights for the very wealthy, and to allow them to fly to Idaho in their personal jets for jamborees.
"Carbon Offsets" are today's replacement for the medieval "Indulgences" sold by friars.

Don't forget that UK FIRES - Locating Resource Efficiency at the heart of Future Industrial Strategy (whoever came up with that platitudinous title), are saying the UK Government is committed to achieving Absolute Zero Carbon by 2050:

and:

and finally:


The reality is a commitment to Net Zero Carbon emissions. I don't care how many brains from however many respected institutions have contributed to this, if they can't get the basic premise of the current legislation right and work toward achieving it then they are simply pandering to the likes of Extinction Rebellion and their ilk.

Unfortunately, given the lauded establishments who are supporting this drive, I can see a UK Government supporting it in the future without understanding the potential implications for the UK economy and hamstringing UK industry while China laughs all the way to the bank.