Thank you PKPC
 

Thank you PKPC for your informative and courteous reply (by personal message). For those who question the actual weather, I respectfully suggest that you check the aftercast... and consider the outcome of this attempted flight. Would many aviators with the slightest respect for airmanship have attempted this flight? I don't believe they would have. Just my opinion.Rgds, bm

Not VFR, outside controlled airspace, BoeingMEL. But there is a lot of IFR capable pilots out there and we don't know two of the key factors here:

IR
Oxygen

Although in this incident it was of no ultimate or eventual help to the pilot but, at the very least he had made the effort to speak to ATC during his transit across some very hostile terrain, because of this when the tradgedy happened at least the authorities knew he was missing and had a good idea where to start the search......you would be amazed at how many people fly that route on a daily basis and never bother to advise ATC of their presence, if anything can be learned from this incident that is when ever possible maintain contact with the appropriatte ATC unit....in this case Scottish Info.

I took off from halfpenny green on Friday at 13.10 in front of this Saratoga. I had a 5 minute conversation at the fuel bays with him about his planned route to America while he was waiting to re-fuel behind me. Just wanted to send my condolences to the family. Seemed such a lovely guy.

Not in those conditions in an aeroplane with no de-icing capability, it wasn't.

Decency prevents me saying too much but, sadly, this accident comes as no surprise to those who knew Gary.

Quote:

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This flight was IMHO doable in a 16k ceiling plane. But much hangs on the detail.

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I would disagree (in principle). If you can climb to VMC on top, de-ice equipment is irrelevant. The trick is to not collect ice on the way up, or on the way down.

This is how IFR capable pilots fly European airways routinely. They don't sit in IMC, collecting ice.

None of the best-selling IFR tourers (mostly SEPs) can fly in moderate icing for say 5 hours.

De-ice kit gets used at the ends of the route. If one cannot climb/descend without risk of collecting too much ice, the flight has to be scrapped, though this is obviously not a clear decision.

The only experienced pilots who fly in IMC enroute are those flying >2000kg piston twins and who want to avoid IFR route charges :)

Well, could well be. If you know him - do you know if he had an IR? It would help illuminate this sad accident.

With tops at 20,000 he could not have attained "VMC on top".

We're pretty certain that he did not have a JAA IR (or even UK IMC). He may have had an FAA IR but as it was a UK reg a/c he would not have been allowed to plan to exercise its privileges.

The simple facts are that the weather was unsuitable for this kind of flight by that pilot in that aeroplane. He only had to wait 24-36 hours and he would have been fine.

The plan to take an aeroplane with no long range tanks across the atlantic would also appear to have a few holes in it....

Aspects - he was a nice person and he loved flying. He offered to take me flying when I was a student at HGFC but it never happened as we were rarely there at the same time.
As Moggiee can tell you, my first thought on hearing that the pilot had set off from EGBO was that it was Gary. I hoped I was wrong, but sadly that wasn't to be. RIP.

What "aftercast" are you alluding to?

The video from the RAF rescue helo tells you all you need to know - those were the same conditions as at the time of the crash.

The speculation here is bordering upon the lurid.

Have a little respect for the poor guy's family and wait for the AAIB report.:rolleyes:

The surface video is not relevant. One doesn't fly on the surface. You could have conditions like that, with tops at 5,000ft. As regards tops at 20,000ft the data does not support that except in patches.

One can check the name on the FAA pilot database - a very useful thing this is too; try it sometime for people you know ;) He had an FAA piggyback PPL (2006) but no IR.

He could have used an FAA IR in a G-reg for IFR (worldwide) but only outside controlled airspace (ref ANO article 26).

For a VFR-only pilot, I agree this would have been a total no-go flight.

Sorry IO540
 

I apologise if my post lacked clarity IO540. I was not referring to the legality of the flight... I was questioning the wisdom of it! Yes, there are many pilots with the experience and qualifications..and yes, there are many aircraft suitably equipped. However, my view remains that the necessary qulifications, experience, equipment and weather were not appropriate on this occasion. Happy to clarify. Rgds bm

BoeingMEL - I agree, for a plain PPL which this appears to have been.

The surface conditions ARE relevant - it was the surface that the aeroplane hit, after all. The surface conditions were bad enough that the ground could not be seen from the air - therefore VFR terrain clearance would have been impossible.

If you can see the ground, you can avoid it (VFR). If you can't see it, then you can't avoid it (VFR).

But moggiee, it is irrelevant whether you can see the ground or not if the engine has stopped and/or the wings are no long providing lift. One thing in this scenario is absolutely certain, you are going to hit the ground regardless of whether you are VMC or IMC. Flight Rules (ie VFR/IFR) are completely irrelevant - go and read the ANO.

There is no evidence (at least in the public domain) as to why the aircraft crashed. You can speculate about weather, someone else will focus on technical issues. The AAIB man who, right now, is probably freezing his cockles off on a mountain side will probably discover why. The rest of us are wildly speculating.

Lurking123

If you are single engine and it quits the conditions below are very relevant. If you have 1000 ft gap between the ground and the cloud you will get about 30 – 40 sec to crash into something survivable, which is a reasonable risk over normal terrain in warm damp conditions.

If you have strong wing, blizzard conditions, extreme icing and lots of rock etc below you and you have only one engine then if it fails you are 99% likely to die. If you go down in these conditions then you are also putting the rescue teams at risk, which is also relevant in my opinion.

Rod1

So, hypothetically, what are the chances of surviving a PA32 forced landing on the side of a Scottish mountain, regardless of weather?

There is a whole world of difference between regulation and airmanship.

Many things are legal, but unwise.