Noticing a changing climate
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Noticing a changing climate
I've been watching the weather with interest (here, in Ontario, Canada) for more than 50 years, and flying for more than 40 of those years. Though some weather patterns are predictably similar to those of decades past, I am noticing more change more recently. There are weather patterns I have never seen before. This is coupled with more precise forecasting, and my frequent reference to the Environment Canada weather radar image for my area.
For the second year we had a silly hot summer, which this year seemed to change within a week or two into winter. In effect, winter has come more than a month early, and stayed. And even at that, the week or so long stretches of nice weather with a lingering high pressure area just have not happened. Though it's been a miserable and cold autumn here, now winter is settling in, its a few degrees warmer than usual, so right around freezing - but still winter.
One of my clients operate polar research aircraft, one task of which is to fly over and measure the thickness of arctic and antarctic sea ice. we know it's been receding over the last 11 years I've been involved, as they are having to fly farther toward the pole each season to get to the start of the ice to measure it! It got to the point where we had to approve a gross weight increase to the research aircraft to enable them to carry enough fuel to get to the ice to measure it!
The relation to private flying? Well hardly any flying for me this autumn! Normally I could fly most days in the autumn, not this year! I've only flown fair weather three times since mid October!
So I'm no climate expert, but I'm seeing the changes, different weather here in Ontario, which is generally continental high pressure nice a lot, the fires raging in western North America, much worse than decades previous, and obvious warming in the arctic. Climate change is real, I wonder how far it takes us, before we can slow our effect on the world's climate.
For the second year we had a silly hot summer, which this year seemed to change within a week or two into winter. In effect, winter has come more than a month early, and stayed. And even at that, the week or so long stretches of nice weather with a lingering high pressure area just have not happened. Though it's been a miserable and cold autumn here, now winter is settling in, its a few degrees warmer than usual, so right around freezing - but still winter.
One of my clients operate polar research aircraft, one task of which is to fly over and measure the thickness of arctic and antarctic sea ice. we know it's been receding over the last 11 years I've been involved, as they are having to fly farther toward the pole each season to get to the start of the ice to measure it! It got to the point where we had to approve a gross weight increase to the research aircraft to enable them to carry enough fuel to get to the ice to measure it!
The relation to private flying? Well hardly any flying for me this autumn! Normally I could fly most days in the autumn, not this year! I've only flown fair weather three times since mid October!
So I'm no climate expert, but I'm seeing the changes, different weather here in Ontario, which is generally continental high pressure nice a lot, the fires raging in western North America, much worse than decades previous, and obvious warming in the arctic. Climate change is real, I wonder how far it takes us, before we can slow our effect on the world's climate.
DAR, I posted elsewhere on the site re climate change, "Over population is the real issue, but business and politicians will never buy it because the capitalist model requires growth. Growth until when?" Concentration purely on CO2 is not a solution. Farmers readily see the effects of over stocking. Have you ever flown over the endless fields of agriculture that stretch from one horizon to the other 360° and wondered what was there before? Forests generally are the lungs of the earth, keeping the ground water low enough so that the land doesn't become useless from salt migrating to the surface, respiring O2 to the atmosphere, and acting as the earths refrigerator/air conditioner by the evaporative cooling of water from leaves. Walk into a forest on a hot day and see how the temperature drops. Yet we have all this agricultural land baking in the sun when not under crop and saying it has no effect on climate, likewise all the concrete and bitumen we've poured over the surface, glider pilots love barren land.
Sadly, we humans think we have dominion over all on earth, as per the Bible, someone gets taken by a shark and the cry goes out by sections of the community to get rid of sharks, humans have primacy. The understandable, biologically speaking, human need to procreate, but without any means of controlling growth. And we go to the extent of utilising medical science to achieve pregnancy where it wouldn't otherwise occur, so a couple may feel fulfilled. Pollution - plastic in the oceans killing all manner of wildlife, from the largest whales to the smallest fish. Desecration of species, we fail to understand that one particular plant may depend solely on one species of bird for its existence, and vice versa. But how do you control human population? Nature has it worked out, if there is an explosion in a particular species, its prey explodes as well in sympathy, until each is restored to a balance. We have no prey. Bit soap boxish, sorry.
Sadly, we humans think we have dominion over all on earth, as per the Bible, someone gets taken by a shark and the cry goes out by sections of the community to get rid of sharks, humans have primacy. The understandable, biologically speaking, human need to procreate, but without any means of controlling growth. And we go to the extent of utilising medical science to achieve pregnancy where it wouldn't otherwise occur, so a couple may feel fulfilled. Pollution - plastic in the oceans killing all manner of wildlife, from the largest whales to the smallest fish. Desecration of species, we fail to understand that one particular plant may depend solely on one species of bird for its existence, and vice versa. But how do you control human population? Nature has it worked out, if there is an explosion in a particular species, its prey explodes as well in sympathy, until each is restored to a balance. We have no prey. Bit soap boxish, sorry.
Over population is the real issue, but business and politicians will never buy it because the capitalist model requires growth.
Megan.
First rate comment. Neat and succinct summary.
Pilot DAR
I've flown the skies of Northern Europe for some fifty years and over time have noted subjectively some modest change. The British winter seems to be slightly warmer. Whether this is due to man made or natural influences is something we'll probably never know given the huge span of time required for assessment.
First rate comment. Neat and succinct summary.
Pilot DAR
I've flown the skies of Northern Europe for some fifty years and over time have noted subjectively some modest change. The British winter seems to be slightly warmer. Whether this is due to man made or natural influences is something we'll probably never know given the huge span of time required for assessment.
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Megan, what a brilliant post. Over population will inevitably get us one day because it always does. I have alway found it incredibly arrogant that we believe humankind has the ability to outsmart nature. Our technology does indeed allow us to push the boundaries, but ultimately nature will always win. The problem we have is all the time we push those boundaries to allow ever greater overpopulation, the bigger the fall when it does eventually come. We’d be better off thinking about the actual problems, rather than purely working out how we can keep our current economic model alive. The problem though, is it is our economic model which allows such overpopulation without anarchy. One day it will all collapse and the world’s population will plummet. It will not be pretty, but it is both inevitable and necessary. Nature will ultimately beat humankind into submission, hands down.
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We have no prey
Over population
). If the past autumn is any indicator, rain water for crop growth won't be a problem in the future! But I think about my time in the Maldives, and other low lying places, and the fact that the rising ocean is really going to threaten such places.Embarrassingly, I live in a nation where driving immense pick up trucks and SUV's for personal transport is considered necessary. As I economize my way along in my diesel VW, I cringe at the thought of all that gasoline being wasted hauling around an extra ton of vehicle to carry one person to work each day! Fuel burners don't see to notice the cumulative effect of carbon fuel consumption on our climate - their kids problem, instead of theirs, perhaps. I hope electric vehicles catch on more soon!
Driving all too big vehicles is a universal problem, but seems to be especially bad in North America, yes. I suppose your humble little diesel was inspired by your numerous visits to Europe... But even here in BE 90% of rides are by 4-seat cars carrying only the driver - a horrific waste indeed.
Do not count on electric cars, still less on electric planes - people tend to forget (under pressure of politics and media) that electricity is not a source of energy like coal or petrol. Electricity must be made, from some source. Same goes for hydrogen. Belgium has been lax on keeping up its power generation capacity, and is now hurriedly reactivating previously abandoned plants running on gas, coal and oil. And begging its neighbour countries to come to its help, as if they had capacity to spare.
Just today, there was a news article about a very big and very modern nuclear reactor nearing completion in Finland. And mind you, they are neither stupid nor behind technology, up there, at the contrary. As long as we want to keep living at our present level of comfort and commodity and mobility, we will need lots of power; and if we cannot get it from hydrocarbons as we are used to, nuclear may well be the only reliable answer on the short term. The article said rightly that nuclear power, though it is not without its risks and disadvantages, does not contribute to global warming.
But yes, climate is changing. Even in this very stable corner of the world, it is long since we had a really cold winter. And the level of ground water continues to sink, quite alarming.
Do not count on electric cars, still less on electric planes - people tend to forget (under pressure of politics and media) that electricity is not a source of energy like coal or petrol. Electricity must be made, from some source. Same goes for hydrogen. Belgium has been lax on keeping up its power generation capacity, and is now hurriedly reactivating previously abandoned plants running on gas, coal and oil. And begging its neighbour countries to come to its help, as if they had capacity to spare.
Just today, there was a news article about a very big and very modern nuclear reactor nearing completion in Finland. And mind you, they are neither stupid nor behind technology, up there, at the contrary. As long as we want to keep living at our present level of comfort and commodity and mobility, we will need lots of power; and if we cannot get it from hydrocarbons as we are used to, nuclear may well be the only reliable answer on the short term. The article said rightly that nuclear power, though it is not without its risks and disadvantages, does not contribute to global warming.
But yes, climate is changing. Even in this very stable corner of the world, it is long since we had a really cold winter. And the level of ground water continues to sink, quite alarming.
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For those who don't know of him, David Attenborough is a great British character and broadcaster. Initially in the early 60's he was in senior broadcasting management, setting up the 2nd BBC television channel, groundbreaking in its day. Then he moved into making wonderful nature programmes. Recently, he said that the World's population had trebled during the time that he has been making these programmes. He recently, in his 90's, gave an impassioned keynote address at the World climate change conference in Poland. As far as I am aware, the only Nation that has made any attempt to slow down population growth has been the Chinese, who for a generation made most people only have one child. I see they have now relaxed this, presumably as they join the rest of the World in the quest for economic growth. After the Second World War, authors such as Nevil Chute predicted a great decline in UK population, echoed by the Government choosing to encourage immigration from our former colonies.
What to do? The Chinese model was seen as draconian but India's population is set to exceed that of China in the near future. Malthusian Theory suggests (as GS-Alpha says) that a sudden calamity will occur but if it was going to, then it would have already happened. Other studies suggest that the World's population will top out at around 10 billion, then show a slight decline and that resources might just cope with this. The decline will happen when all peoples have a higher standard of living and delay the production of offspring. In my family, generations historically and today are around 40 years, about 3 times that in some countries. My father was 50 when he had his first child (me) and my eldest son and his partner are both nearly 40 and have just had their first child. If the rest of the World only followed this pattern, without any draconian laws, then population growth would slow to a trickle. The prediction is that this will happen as living standards improve. Italy is a good example of this, going against the Church's desires.
TOO
What to do? The Chinese model was seen as draconian but India's population is set to exceed that of China in the near future. Malthusian Theory suggests (as GS-Alpha says) that a sudden calamity will occur but if it was going to, then it would have already happened. Other studies suggest that the World's population will top out at around 10 billion, then show a slight decline and that resources might just cope with this. The decline will happen when all peoples have a higher standard of living and delay the production of offspring. In my family, generations historically and today are around 40 years, about 3 times that in some countries. My father was 50 when he had his first child (me) and my eldest son and his partner are both nearly 40 and have just had their first child. If the rest of the World only followed this pattern, without any draconian laws, then population growth would slow to a trickle. The prediction is that this will happen as living standards improve. Italy is a good example of this, going against the Church's desires.
TOO
Overpopulation is a bad issue, yes. But it touches on religion _and_ on politics - less than one year ago, one president of one religion-based administration insisted that all of the nation, at home _and_ in the diaspora, should have as many offspring as they could manage.
Butt, err, isn't this getting us very far from our "Private Flying" subject matter?
Butt, err, isn't this getting us very far from our "Private Flying" subject matter?
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Yes a bit of thread drift, but only a few countries have a positive population profile so there is hope. Research does show that better generally education of women has the most effect in reducing family size, so I believe that aid programmes should focus on female education as the first priority. Humans do have predators called virus and bacteria, if Ebola goes from a close contact to an airborne contamination route stand well back, millions will die same goes for bird flue only 3 mutation away from going pandemic and antibiotics are losing their effects so we may be heading for a big crash. Finally we need a new compact low polluting primary energy source, the only one I think, is nuclear fusion but of hydrogen and boron it converts to electricity directly with very low radiation, very safe. Google Focus Fusion. Two forty foot containers for the device a couple of buckets of water and a kilogram of Boron will produce 5 mega Watts for a year and at a million$ a copy, what's not to like would change the world.
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Megan, I have admired your posts on other threads but I think this one is probably the best. That is not to diminish some of the later posts which are almost equally prescient.
It has been a puzzle for me for most of my life (and I am now getting on!) why noone (except as mentioned, for a number of years, the Chinese), is prepared to grasp the nettle and comment about population growth and possibly do something about limiting it - with the possible exception of the DofE and apparently Attenborough. As you say, concentration simply on CO2 is not an answer. We have a continually increasing population and increasing standards of living worldwide, all adding up to an almost exponentially increasing demand on resources of all types. It has to stop somewhere and as others have suggested, that is unlikely to happen 'voluntarily.' The 'current economic model' demands ever increasing growth, and politicians are unlikely to try and stop it. That leaves the 'involuntary' solution to over-population - disease, catastrophe, war, etc.
In the meantime, let's blame it all on the cows emitting methane! How can anyone seriously say one of the causes of climate change is the methane emitted by cows, when there are 7.7 billion people on this planet, all respiring and emitting CO2 all day every day. Noone ever questions the Carbon Dioxide added to the atmosphere by them.
It has been a puzzle for me for most of my life (and I am now getting on!) why noone (except as mentioned, for a number of years, the Chinese), is prepared to grasp the nettle and comment about population growth and possibly do something about limiting it - with the possible exception of the DofE and apparently Attenborough. As you say, concentration simply on CO2 is not an answer. We have a continually increasing population and increasing standards of living worldwide, all adding up to an almost exponentially increasing demand on resources of all types. It has to stop somewhere and as others have suggested, that is unlikely to happen 'voluntarily.' The 'current economic model' demands ever increasing growth, and politicians are unlikely to try and stop it. That leaves the 'involuntary' solution to over-population - disease, catastrophe, war, etc.
In the meantime, let's blame it all on the cows emitting methane! How can anyone seriously say one of the causes of climate change is the methane emitted by cows, when there are 7.7 billion people on this planet, all respiring and emitting CO2 all day every day. Noone ever questions the Carbon Dioxide added to the atmosphere by them.
There will never be the unified global political will to make the kind of changes necessary to effect real change because the problem is an eye blink in evolutionary terms but half a lifetime away in human consciousness terms. Humanity is the frog in the slowly heating pot of water. By the time we figure out we are boiling to death it will be too late. The final injustice is the peoples who have the wealth and technology to actually effect change are also the ones with the wealth and technology to minimize the effects of global warming on themselves in the meantime.
As Megan correctly points out "Over population is the real issue"...
Many will remember the East African famine of 1983-84 that sparked the "Live Aid" charity and the relief efforts it produced. Ethiopia, for example, had a population then of 39,000,000 of which upwards of 6,000,000 were affected. Nearly 1,000,000 died according estimates.
We are now 35 years on and population growth has continued. Any guesses as to the current estimate?
108,700,000 with 2.4% growth. That's 2,500,000 births per year.
Add in India and China and you can see why some of us are unconcerned about our local small scale efforts to reduce emissions and look to the bigger picture.
Many will remember the East African famine of 1983-84 that sparked the "Live Aid" charity and the relief efforts it produced. Ethiopia, for example, had a population then of 39,000,000 of which upwards of 6,000,000 were affected. Nearly 1,000,000 died according estimates.
We are now 35 years on and population growth has continued. Any guesses as to the current estimate?
108,700,000 with 2.4% growth. That's 2,500,000 births per year.
Add in India and China and you can see why some of us are unconcerned about our local small scale efforts to reduce emissions and look to the bigger picture.
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I started a similar thread in another place. Whilst I can appreciate the attitude that prevailed there (I'm alright, I can't make a difference so I will carry on using my gas-guzzling aircraft, my gas-guzzling car and keeping the heating cranked up to 75 degrees), unless the causes of climate change are addressed, this planet will soon be unable to sustain us.
There's a media push to get the masses to do something. The BBC Online had an interactive that showed the effect of your food. 2 apples a day - 25kg CO2 per annum? But surely the apple tree used photosynthesis.
But it isn't just other countries. It's also energy use. Tungsten lightbulbs were banned, but electric personal quadcopters are promoted, though they wiil be much more energy expencive than electric cars.
But it isn't just other countries. It's also energy use. Tungsten lightbulbs were banned, but electric personal quadcopters are promoted, though they wiil be much more energy expencive than electric cars.
Interesting topic for Private Flying!
If it were a country, the cement industry would be the third largest emitter in the world
A lengthy read, but added to Megan's dissertation on overpopulation (which I have believed for many years and completely agree) another 'hidden' issue that can and should be addressed, instead of the nonsensical belief by the Climate Change Religion that we can tax ourselves into dropping temperatures world wide. Australia is in the thrall of the fanatics and is on the downward spiral of increasing costs of living due to the anti-coal mantra. Closing coal power stations, yet selling ever increasing amounts of the stuff overseas to countries.
If it were a country, the cement industry would be the third largest emitter in the world
A lengthy read, but added to Megan's dissertation on overpopulation (which I have believed for many years and completely agree) another 'hidden' issue that can and should be addressed, instead of the nonsensical belief by the Climate Change Religion that we can tax ourselves into dropping temperatures world wide. Australia is in the thrall of the fanatics and is on the downward spiral of increasing costs of living due to the anti-coal mantra. Closing coal power stations, yet selling ever increasing amounts of the stuff overseas to countries.
Not just cement John, also steel, but more importantly, also your favourite tipple, whether it be beer, scotch etc. I've always wondered about the sequestration process, for every bit of carbon you lock away you also lock away two bits of oxygen.
The tree huggers have that fixed by wanting the coal mines closed (Aldani school kids protests), wonder where the cash comes from for their welfare cheques then? Expansion of the basket weaving industry perhaps.
Closing coal power stations, yet selling ever increasing amounts of the stuff overseas to countries
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Is all this appropriate to a thread on Private Flying? - Well it certainly is.
We are all aware of the pressure to convert airstrips and even larger airfields into housing estates, we all know of the pressure to control airspace so that more and more people can fly here there and everywhere, and we all expect avgas to go up and up in price in the future.
Not to mention the costs of housing, education, National Health Service and transport which affect us all every day, and help to limit disposable income which ought to be devoted to our (selfish?) hobby. Just imagine - if no new houses were to be built because there was no increase in population to demand them, then there would be quarter of a million £££ for each house to spare for better purposes.
Megan - your post does a brilliant job of stating the painfully obvious. I go along with every word of it. And if, one day, a political party would put population control in its manifesto, then it would get my vote without question. Meanwhile, the ever increasing floods of illegal immigrants from central Africa into Europe may yet prove to be the tipping point. It has certainly brought some sense of reality to the central european countries.
We are all aware of the pressure to convert airstrips and even larger airfields into housing estates, we all know of the pressure to control airspace so that more and more people can fly here there and everywhere, and we all expect avgas to go up and up in price in the future.
Not to mention the costs of housing, education, National Health Service and transport which affect us all every day, and help to limit disposable income which ought to be devoted to our (selfish?) hobby. Just imagine - if no new houses were to be built because there was no increase in population to demand them, then there would be quarter of a million £££ for each house to spare for better purposes.
Megan - your post does a brilliant job of stating the painfully obvious. I go along with every word of it. And if, one day, a political party would put population control in its manifesto, then it would get my vote without question. Meanwhile, the ever increasing floods of illegal immigrants from central Africa into Europe may yet prove to be the tipping point. It has certainly brought some sense of reality to the central european countries.
