How long will GA be around for?
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How long will GA be around for?
Just a thought for the day. With drone deliveries on the horizon and now things like this:
https://techcrunch.com/2017/02/06/ub...-uber-elevate/
Are the days of GA flying numbered?
https://techcrunch.com/2017/02/06/ub...-uber-elevate/
Are the days of GA flying numbered?
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Are the days of GA flying numbered?
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I dont see how drone deliveries will affect GA and many of us who fly do not do it to get from A-B, neither of these will cure my aerobatic addiction. The bigger threat as I see it is the threat to carbon fuels, but electric aircraft are on the horizon.
[QUOTE]
I agree with foxmoth & ChickenHouse - it isn't the same thing... It might change some of the rules we abide by, but I doubt they'll dare take away our freedom! [QUOTE]
Oh? Nice to be an optimist but I don't think so, myself
I agree with foxmoth & ChickenHouse - it isn't the same thing... It might change some of the rules we abide by, but I doubt they'll dare take away our freedom! [QUOTE]
Oh? Nice to be an optimist but I don't think so, myself
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Just a thought for the day. With drone deliveries on the horizon and now things like this:
https://techcrunch.com/2017/02/06/ub...-uber-elevate/
Are the days of GA flying numbered?
https://techcrunch.com/2017/02/06/ub...-uber-elevate/
Are the days of GA flying numbered?
What will cause GA to decline is:
1. A lack of enthusiasm for flying by young people.
2. Poor exposure in the media for GA.
3. Over regulation - which fortunately is already being addressed by the CAA
4. The high cost of learning to fly
5. The impression by too many of the population that airline pilots are overpaid bus/train drivers and that there are better jobs on offer!
6. The loss of GA Airfields
7. People complaining about noise and "elitist" activities.
8. Light aircraft crashing
9. Irresponsible behaviour in light aeroplanes (which is seen by some/many as dangerous) and annoys the general public
Last edited by terry holloway; 8th Feb 2017 at 15:58. Reason: Amplify point 9
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Haha Piper.Classique, one can always dream!
I have hope for many things in our lifetimes. Hope that general aviation will remain, and live on till the end of time. I also hope that general aviation will become more friendly, at least in the UK. I also hope that people will live on dreaming about aviation as I did all my youth!
I don't see how another form of transport will stop us from existing, I trust that people will learn to live alongside one another rather than supersede one another. I also don't see all these aeroplane owners, airfield owners, thousands of businesses involved in GA etc... Just let their own extinction happen.
At least I have a little hope left! :-)
I have hope for many things in our lifetimes. Hope that general aviation will remain, and live on till the end of time. I also hope that general aviation will become more friendly, at least in the UK. I also hope that people will live on dreaming about aviation as I did all my youth!
I don't see how another form of transport will stop us from existing, I trust that people will learn to live alongside one another rather than supersede one another. I also don't see all these aeroplane owners, airfield owners, thousands of businesses involved in GA etc... Just let their own extinction happen.
At least I have a little hope left! :-)
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Since 2009 I've owned a "clean diesel" VW TDI. Little did I know.... I bought it with good environmental intentions, and for 18 months have been the butt of jokes about black smoke emissions.
One of the things which will more and more harm GA as we know it now, will be the public perception of the "special few" who bimble around recreationally burning 40 - 70 LPH of highly leaded gasoline, with horribly inadequate emission controls. There will be little public tolerance for polluting like this for fun. As a specialty fuel, it will become more and more difficult to obtain for us. Yes, we'll have electric 'planes, but few recreational GA fliers will be able to afford them.
One of the things which will more and more harm GA as we know it now, will be the public perception of the "special few" who bimble around recreationally burning 40 - 70 LPH of highly leaded gasoline, with horribly inadequate emission controls. There will be little public tolerance for polluting like this for fun. As a specialty fuel, it will become more and more difficult to obtain for us. Yes, we'll have electric 'planes, but few recreational GA fliers will be able to afford them.
I think 21st century handwringing about the end of <insert whatever activity you like, including flying> is a symptom of society wrapping its broader mindset around the narrow concerns of the postwar population boom - the generation that's driven societal attitudes since the 50s, sequentially reflecting every stage of their lives. In the here and now, that generation is getting old, with attitudes that reflect old age, and losing physical capability... and therefore exciting activity and personal freedom is likewise coming to an end. I think it's nonsense.
I honestly think the boomers will have to fade away before reasonable tolerance for personal risk will return, and before a more positive societal mindset will return. But I don't think anybody will take the world with them, nor personal freedom, nor the commercial availability of fossil fuel that nobody reasonable thinks is going to end for quite a long time. Nor will it change that light aircraft have no meaningful impact on the environment, and that some people want to fly, and will.
I honestly think the boomers will have to fade away before reasonable tolerance for personal risk will return, and before a more positive societal mindset will return. But I don't think anybody will take the world with them, nor personal freedom, nor the commercial availability of fossil fuel that nobody reasonable thinks is going to end for quite a long time. Nor will it change that light aircraft have no meaningful impact on the environment, and that some people want to fly, and will.
Last edited by Silvaire1; 8th Feb 2017 at 03:12.
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Since 2009 I've owned a "clean diesel" VW TDI. Little did I know.... I bought it with good environmental intentions, and for 18 months have been the butt of jokes about black smoke emissions.
One of the things which will more and more harm GA as we know it now, will be the public perception of the "special few" who bimble around recreationally burning 40 - 70 LPH of highly leaded gasoline, with horribly inadequate emission controls. There will be little public tolerance for polluting like this for fun. As a specialty fuel, it will become more and more difficult to obtain for us. Yes, we'll have electric 'planes, but few recreational GA fliers will be able to afford them.
One of the things which will more and more harm GA as we know it now, will be the public perception of the "special few" who bimble around recreationally burning 40 - 70 LPH of highly leaded gasoline, with horribly inadequate emission controls. There will be little public tolerance for polluting like this for fun. As a specialty fuel, it will become more and more difficult to obtain for us. Yes, we'll have electric 'planes, but few recreational GA fliers will be able to afford them.
However, I mainly bimble around in an aircraft that uses 12 - 14 lph unleaded petrol. It also has a reasonable silencer.
Not exactly environmentally friendly but better than Lycomings and Continentals. However I agree that some form of electric power is probably the way forward.
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People still ride horses despite cars.
People still hand-write letters despite e-mail.
People still ride bicycles despite scooters, mopeds, motorcycles and whatnot.
People still walk, even long distances, despite public transport
I doubt whether people will stop flying aircraft as a leisure activity, when drones and other forms of aerial transport appear.
People still hand-write letters despite e-mail.
People still ride bicycles despite scooters, mopeds, motorcycles and whatnot.
People still walk, even long distances, despite public transport
I doubt whether people will stop flying aircraft as a leisure activity, when drones and other forms of aerial transport appear.
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Unfortunately, the correct observations made by Backpacker tend to validate the argument that mass GA will diminish. Fossil fueled GA is a very non environmentally friendly pastime relative to its benefit to society on the whole. Sure, there will always be some of us who assure that we fly, but it won't be because society is supporting it!
I (unhappily) envision a world in the decades to come, where the airliner pilots we will desperately need, will be simulator trained from the beginning, and fly by rote and training, but not at all instinct and experience. The next generation airliners will be automated toward this end. It'll just be different.
Maybe it'll be okay, because by then, every possible scenario of air travel danger will be reprogrammed for automated avoidance. But in the mean time, the very basic hands on, "walk before you run" piloting skills, and experience, which require the use of an airplane at hundreds per hour, will wain from mainstream piloting culture
I (unhappily) envision a world in the decades to come, where the airliner pilots we will desperately need, will be simulator trained from the beginning, and fly by rote and training, but not at all instinct and experience. The next generation airliners will be automated toward this end. It'll just be different.
Maybe it'll be okay, because by then, every possible scenario of air travel danger will be reprogrammed for automated avoidance. But in the mean time, the very basic hands on, "walk before you run" piloting skills, and experience, which require the use of an airplane at hundreds per hour, will wain from mainstream piloting culture
What timeframe is the question?
My guess, GA using the light aircraft we know today will carry for another twenty to thirty years then start to tail off as new technology for airframes, navigation and power in the form of multi-rotor craft begins to have an effect.
My guess, GA using the light aircraft we know today will carry for another twenty to thirty years then start to tail off as new technology for airframes, navigation and power in the form of multi-rotor craft begins to have an effect.
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Fossil fueled GA is a very non environmentally friendly pastime relative to its benefit to society on the whole.
I made the calculation more than once and I really do not see any difference to using a car. My aircraft runs on Autofuel and I had to do the comparison for several business trips for tax reasons. Total used fuel A to B was almost the same (environmental impact with the aircraft is less, as it only needs 1/2 mile for take off and landing, instead of the miles road the car needs) and total cost was to the Pound equal. The benefit was time saved, typically 2/3 of total, and taking the aircraft for business avoided overnight stays in these cases. As in these cases the saved time could also be charged to the customer, it was an individual benefit (be home again at evening) and a business benefit (saved hotel costs and gained hours charged at customer). I still hope they start separating the business related part of GA in statistics, no clue how big the percentage of real business use in GA is.
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Young people?
I've heard this conversation a few times over the years. A lot of worry is in the diminishing numbers and increasing GA pilot age.
But the UK Glider Community has been working hard at this and should be an example to follow. Nearly every week I hear a story of another 14 year old going solo! Young participation in Gliding had increased hugely, now over a thousand people with many females too. We have multiple instructors under 18, examiners and tug pilots at 19 A lot of these people will pass into the power world as they look to start towing. This process has taken time and investment from all clubs and clearly cannot be carbon copied into power. But it is ensuring a future.
One key thing is to make it appeal, for example, is your flying club exhibiting at the local airshow? If they are, make sure you get any young pilots you may have, along to help out regardless of experience level. It makes learning to fly seem so much more believable than listening to someone three times your age! Do anything to reduce the perception that GA is for the rich and mature. Unfortunately some idiot on a certain BBC programme last year reinforced the public's perception of elitism to be in GA.
Becoming a pilot is a pipe dream still for many, sadly it seems many overlook GA and see just the flight deck of the latest airliner. Some people just genuinely don't know where to start. Bottom line is there are enough people out there, many just need to know the reality and be shown the way in.
But the UK Glider Community has been working hard at this and should be an example to follow. Nearly every week I hear a story of another 14 year old going solo! Young participation in Gliding had increased hugely, now over a thousand people with many females too. We have multiple instructors under 18, examiners and tug pilots at 19 A lot of these people will pass into the power world as they look to start towing. This process has taken time and investment from all clubs and clearly cannot be carbon copied into power. But it is ensuring a future.
One key thing is to make it appeal, for example, is your flying club exhibiting at the local airshow? If they are, make sure you get any young pilots you may have, along to help out regardless of experience level. It makes learning to fly seem so much more believable than listening to someone three times your age! Do anything to reduce the perception that GA is for the rich and mature. Unfortunately some idiot on a certain BBC programme last year reinforced the public's perception of elitism to be in GA.
Becoming a pilot is a pipe dream still for many, sadly it seems many overlook GA and see just the flight deck of the latest airliner. Some people just genuinely don't know where to start. Bottom line is there are enough people out there, many just need to know the reality and be shown the way in.
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Why? What is wrong with individual benefits?
For myself, they are excellent! I own four 'planes, which I keep at my runway at home, and I more often fly to a client than drive. I have enjoyed this immense freedom for more than 25 years. However, I am "individual" in the extreme! I imagine that I represent 1 in 100,000 people in Canada who live and fly this way, and we're a comparatively aviation active nation, with many private home runways - while small public airports are closing.
My frequent travel and GA flying in Europe suggest to me that it is a much smaller fraction of the population there who "use" GA aircraft as personal transportation. And the rest of the world - immeasurably small percentage.
There will always be a "ma and pa" hobby GA industry. But, the fossil fueled side of it will not be a growth industry, nor anything like what it was in the '60's and '70's. I remember flying as a young person, to an airport 25 miles from here, for lunch on the weekend. There would literally be fifty some fly in visitors, and nowhere to park on the apron, there were so many. In the last fifteen years, there has never been a problem parking, and many tiedowns are no longer occupied. The restaurant survives as a shadow of it's former self, only because it is also on an active highway.
The single only thing which will keep GA alive in any form, will be passion in new pilots. I mentor a few to try to keep the inertia. But, I can manage that because a well off friend passed away, leaving his three 'planes, at his home runway, which his widow wants flown. So I do a lot of rides, and "inspiring". It's going to be really tough to say to a young person, who is eager, "yeah, I'd love to take you, but we need to find a 'plane, and all that is available are half million dollar electric LSA types. Not that they are a bad idea, it's just a really expensive entry point for bimbling around!
Fossil fueled GA is a very non environmentally friendly pastime relative to its benefit to society on the whole.
What's the difference between caning a car for a couple of hours on a track day and flying a light aircraft? Similar cost, similar fuel consumption.
I don't see motor sports declining anything like the decline in GA, certainly not in the UK at any rate - quite the reverse.
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What's the difference between caning a car for a couple of hours on a track day and flying a light aircraft?
Conversely, aviation is a big leap for many people, it's not already running in their veins. Then the devotion to earn even a basic PPL, and expense to operate a vehicle which seems of prehistoric design philosophy compared to a modern car.
We can watch dozens of movies and TV shows, where driving is glamorized, and people can get their heads into that. Glamorizing piloting in movies has faded, and getting one's head into the cockpit of the Concorde or an F35 seems virtually unobtainable for the average person.
Experienced pilots in our generation have to promote GA, to prevent its fading into a rare pastime a generation or so from now. The general public will not support us - they have their cars!
Neither motor sport nor light aviation produce much if any measureable effect on the environment, but a great deal of people enjoy one or both. The societal cost for either is irrelevant. However, motor sport on tracks is more easily containable, therefore less threatening in its freedom, and a better opiate for the masses in terms of spectator appeal. Therefore it enjoys more government support in countries where personal freedom is seen as threatening and/or high population density means individual activity is more disruptive than spectator sport.
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Neither motor sport nor light aviation produce much if any measureable effect on the environment, but a great deal of people enjoy one or both. The societal cost for either is irrelevant. However, motor sport on tracks is more easily containable, therefore less threatening in its freedom, and a better opiate for the masses in terms of spectator appeal. Therefore it enjoys more government support in countries where personal freedom is seen as threatening and/or high population density means individual activity is more disruptive than spectator sport.
Also, and alas, private flying, notwithstanding the comparative low cost of it for many compared with big cars and boats, is seen as "elitist" which makes it a really good target for environmentalists and complainers! Try running a flying school on the edge of a left wing/ liberal populated university city if you want an example of prejudice against aviation! Didn't you notice the Airport at the bottom of you garden madam when you bought the house!