What will recreational flying be like in a few decades?
Pompey till I die
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Love the replies!
Recreational flying in a few decades?
- EASA might have come to some sort of consensus about the IMC
- The PPL will still be predominately WW2 based (shooting flare guns at towers) but might, might, just might, have a nod to GPS (an obsolete tech in 2050).
- Older pilots will proudly fly on GPS telling youngsters that Quantum Triangulation could fail and so they need to keep their skills sharp in the basics
- Planes will still be PA28s or C172, however they will be mostly from the 1990s but still smell a bit of rotting carpet
- All newer planes are downloaded from a company in Brazil and 3D printed
- Most pilots will be seen as idiosynchratic pedants because the majority of people travel by neutron beam teleportation which is instantaneous
- EASA might have come to some sort of consensus about the IMC
- The PPL will still be predominately WW2 based (shooting flare guns at towers) but might, might, just might, have a nod to GPS (an obsolete tech in 2050).
- Older pilots will proudly fly on GPS telling youngsters that Quantum Triangulation could fail and so they need to keep their skills sharp in the basics
- Planes will still be PA28s or C172, however they will be mostly from the 1990s but still smell a bit of rotting carpet
- All newer planes are downloaded from a company in Brazil and 3D printed
- Most pilots will be seen as idiosynchratic pedants because the majority of people travel by neutron beam teleportation which is instantaneous
- You'll still get cut up in the circuit by the local flying hero
- QFE will have a revival
- The Farnborough Class A will extend from the South Coast to Northampton
- Battery icing will replace carburettor icing
- You'll have to file a flight plan to go to Scotland, Wales, Cornwall, Devon, Essex and Isle of Wight as they will all be independent states
- Piper and Cessna will be boutique retro products of the giant Tecnam Corp
- The weather will still be mostly crap
- QFE will have a revival
- The Farnborough Class A will extend from the South Coast to Northampton
- Battery icing will replace carburettor icing
- You'll have to file a flight plan to go to Scotland, Wales, Cornwall, Devon, Essex and Isle of Wight as they will all be independent states
- Piper and Cessna will be boutique retro products of the giant Tecnam Corp
- The weather will still be mostly crap
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GA survives in a precarious balance. As with any activity, there are those who participate who will afford any price for their pastime. Those people are not the commercial airline pilots of the future. But, to a large degree, GA flyers just manage the costs to fly, in an environment where really no one is making much profit, and everything is more costly and complicated than ideal.
We linger on with mainstream certified flying still following the WW2 model of how to build and maintain planes, and train pilots. The problem is that the GA fliers don't have the military budget for any of that. Non certified aircraft can be less costly to operate, but pound per knot per dollar/pound moving much more than one or two people at more than 90 knots gets pretty costly - before things change for the less good, as they will.
I imagine fuel availability and the stigma associated with huge fuel burn for poor person per mile efficiency will make GA socially unwelcomed. Society won't care that it's highly convenient for a few people to fly direct and save a few hours of driving time, or to bimble around on a pretty evening. The public will brand aviation gasoline as bad because they don't do it, as they have with aircraft noise, and regulate it to death.
Electric will help, but it will be a long time before more than two occupants can go further than the next airport on electric. And the cost will be immense to develop and build those new or modified aircraft.
And now the airlines are trying to circumvent the traditional pilot experience building path - GA flying. If wannabe commercial pilots aren't "hour building" as much, a large market is no longer there to sustain the rest of the fleet, who just fly recreationally.
As WW2 vintage aircraft still fly, so will the Cessnas and Pipers of the '50's through '80's, in the decades to come. But I fear that they'll do it in warbird numbers - not many!
We linger on with mainstream certified flying still following the WW2 model of how to build and maintain planes, and train pilots. The problem is that the GA fliers don't have the military budget for any of that. Non certified aircraft can be less costly to operate, but pound per knot per dollar/pound moving much more than one or two people at more than 90 knots gets pretty costly - before things change for the less good, as they will.
I imagine fuel availability and the stigma associated with huge fuel burn for poor person per mile efficiency will make GA socially unwelcomed. Society won't care that it's highly convenient for a few people to fly direct and save a few hours of driving time, or to bimble around on a pretty evening. The public will brand aviation gasoline as bad because they don't do it, as they have with aircraft noise, and regulate it to death.
Electric will help, but it will be a long time before more than two occupants can go further than the next airport on electric. And the cost will be immense to develop and build those new or modified aircraft.
And now the airlines are trying to circumvent the traditional pilot experience building path - GA flying. If wannabe commercial pilots aren't "hour building" as much, a large market is no longer there to sustain the rest of the fleet, who just fly recreationally.
As WW2 vintage aircraft still fly, so will the Cessnas and Pipers of the '50's through '80's, in the decades to come. But I fear that they'll do it in warbird numbers - not many!
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Flying is the safest mode of transport remember, although you seem to have data indicating otherwise... ?!
and now the airlines are trying to circumvent the traditional pilot experience building path - GA flying. If wannabe commercial pilots aren't "hour building" as much, a large market is no longer there to sustain the rest of the fleet, who just fly recreationally.
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Pilot Dar
We are a far more recreational society now than years back and recreation is big business I can see that increasing overall
Part of that is thrill seeking adventure holidays and experiences
GA is not the only fuel dependent recreation around
People own powerboats,race cars, motorbikes etc and even other non direct fuel related leisure require fuel to to participate so it's not just aeroplanes although I agree it was Always regarded as a Rich mans past time by the general public!
I still see a case for a business tool in the future for long distance travel IFR but do see a gap from there down to Sport flying VFR especially with the closing of airports and the larger airports refusing GA unless it's top end
Pace
We are a far more recreational society now than years back and recreation is big business I can see that increasing overall
Part of that is thrill seeking adventure holidays and experiences
GA is not the only fuel dependent recreation around
People own powerboats,race cars, motorbikes etc and even other non direct fuel related leisure require fuel to to participate so it's not just aeroplanes although I agree it was Always regarded as a Rich mans past time by the general public!
I still see a case for a business tool in the future for long distance travel IFR but do see a gap from there down to Sport flying VFR especially with the closing of airports and the larger airports refusing GA unless it's top end
Pace
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I really do think there is a lot of mileage in the future regarding BRS as I do think they will replace the " Other" engine. Obviously not as a second source of energy if the one packs up but as another option if that engine quits at night, over water or low cloud or even if the pilot looses the plot.
Electric will help, but it will be a long time before more than two occupants can go further than the next airport on electric. And the cost will be immense to develop and build those new or modified aircraft.
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I fly what I would call a classic aeroplane, because I love it, metaphorically speaking. I hope I can get another 10 years of doing just that.
For me, I dislike most of the newer breed type microlight things, they pretty much all look the same, boring, lightweight flimsy. And frankly I'd rather pack up than own and fly one. Sorry buts that is how I feel.
For me, I dislike most of the newer breed type microlight things, they pretty much all look the same, boring, lightweight flimsy. And frankly I'd rather pack up than own and fly one. Sorry buts that is how I feel.
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I fly what I would call a classic aeroplane, because I love it, metaphorically speaking. I hope I can get another 10 years of doing just that.
For me, I dislike most of the newer breed type microlight things, they pretty much all look the same, boring, lightweight flimsy. And frankly I'd rather pack up than own and fly one. Sorry buts that is how I feel.
For me, I dislike most of the newer breed type microlight things, they pretty much all look the same, boring, lightweight flimsy. And frankly I'd rather pack up than own and fly one. Sorry buts that is how I feel.
I've gone the other direction, having started my PPL training back in 2010 in a PA-38; I got 25 hours in & had to stop due to costs.
Earlier this year I had a go in a C42 and I was hooked. It's very involving to fly, and once I have my NPPL, hopefully I'll be able to get into a group & fly at less than 50 quid/hour wet!
Some of the aircraft in the microlight category offer astounding performance & are also extremely frugal. Maybe you should give one a test flight.
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cjm - have you flown a Chipmunk, a Yak52, or a Stampe? An ultralight (non-aerobatic; yawn) will run rings around any of them from an 'efficiency' point of view. But balls-out fun isn't usually about efficiency.
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For many of us in this forum flying is a much-valued hobby, or perhaps more correctly, life obsession. As I underlined in an earlier post, we all have our own reasons for wanting to fly and, for many of us, the motivations vary from day to day. Personally, I don't find it useful to be too dogmatic about these things: my observation is that many pilots will enjoy flying anything and what we choose as our regular aircraft depends on a whole heap of factors, of which cost is only one.
For example, I love flying a Chippie or a Yak, and I love aerobatics. But my decision a few years ago was to buy a used P2002JF, whose virtues I also appreciate. Before going down that path I was, as 30-year "regular" GA pilot, quite skeptical about the LSA or VLA category. Looking back, no amount of armchair research brought out the real good and bad points of the VLAs: it wasn't until I put in a few hours, ditched the GA hubris, and began having a different kind of fun that I got a reasonably balanced view which, in my case, pointed to the VLA as the best long-term compromise. Had the VLA certification supported aerobatics it would have been a much better compromise and I sincerely hope that GA pilots in the next 50 years continue to have the option of aerobatics via new and classic aircraft.
My suggestion to cjm is to enjoy the chosen path, but to make a point of flying as many different types of aircraft as you can - advice I followed myself and which I've always given to new pilots. No aircraft is perfect for all applications and informed pilots form their own views on the compromises. But I'd happily try out your C42
For example, I love flying a Chippie or a Yak, and I love aerobatics. But my decision a few years ago was to buy a used P2002JF, whose virtues I also appreciate. Before going down that path I was, as 30-year "regular" GA pilot, quite skeptical about the LSA or VLA category. Looking back, no amount of armchair research brought out the real good and bad points of the VLAs: it wasn't until I put in a few hours, ditched the GA hubris, and began having a different kind of fun that I got a reasonably balanced view which, in my case, pointed to the VLA as the best long-term compromise. Had the VLA certification supported aerobatics it would have been a much better compromise and I sincerely hope that GA pilots in the next 50 years continue to have the option of aerobatics via new and classic aircraft.
My suggestion to cjm is to enjoy the chosen path, but to make a point of flying as many different types of aircraft as you can - advice I followed myself and which I've always given to new pilots. No aircraft is perfect for all applications and informed pilots form their own views on the compromises. But I'd happily try out your C42
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Electric is on its way!
In the LAA mag this month the Electric Falco, a CEP engine (300HP!) Contra Electric Propulsion Ltd | Home tied to a composite Falco http://www.falcomposite.com/furio.php
In the LAA mag this month the Electric Falco, a CEP engine (300HP!) Contra Electric Propulsion Ltd | Home tied to a composite Falco http://www.falcomposite.com/furio.php
Last edited by foxmoth; 4th Dec 2015 at 20:14.
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Forget the decades and easa. In a FEW years the greeners , tree huggers
and lefties will have all of us all grounded in the name of global
warming. Enjoy it while you can, i certainly am.
and lefties will have all of us all grounded in the name of global
warming. Enjoy it while you can, i certainly am.
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Well, Im glad I have a spare engine for my Hornet Moth, this should last me untill my "final flight", putting electric under that clasic DH cowling would be a crime against history! Besides, I would have to put fake oil stains on the ramp should I land away!
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Maybe in a way the question is wrong maybe the Question should be what will the world be like in 2050 ? Politically regarding technology,medicine etc and from there guess what sport flying or personal travel will be like? My guess I won't be around by then but who knows and certainly not flying
Pace
Pace
I am optimistic that battery technology will confound the treehuggers. Though I have never liked those who relax and say "the scientists will sort it" I really think that it is not unreasonable to expect a 10 times improvement in battery performance over the next decade or two, maybe much less.
This will give cheap to run, ultra reliable aircraft with similar or better performance to those of today. Also, along with low cost solar panels that are available already, solving the CO2 problem and the energy crisis in general.
No one will then mind a few dirty Hornet Moths blatting around.
This will give cheap to run, ultra reliable aircraft with similar or better performance to those of today. Also, along with low cost solar panels that are available already, solving the CO2 problem and the energy crisis in general.
No one will then mind a few dirty Hornet Moths blatting around.
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Electric is the way forward but does require a better battery which is Lithium Air the holy grail of batteries these have the potential of 10kw/kg. In fact anything over approx. 3kw/kg is competitive on weight with Avgas due to the high energy losses with an IC engine near 80% losses with electric 5 to 10% so only 1/4 energy storage needed. Fast charging 80% is getting better see Tesla cars.
So what is needed for electric.
Low cost safe Lithium Air
Fast charging or a standard battery that can be swopped fast.
Airfield infrastructure for fast charging/battery swop and charge.
May be a 40ft container with a big cheap static battery with a 3 phase supply
just plug in and DC charge at a very high current DC better than AC.
So what is needed is what got the IBM PC going Standards
These are coming in Battery and charging infrastructure this will be from Electric cars.
To give you an idea GM is just about to launch a 200 mile no compromise full electric car the Chevy Bolt to complement their 50 mile electric drive ICengined Chevy Volt (100,000 already sold) the best car they have ever made.
So I believe electrics will happen but like all new concepts will take 20 years to arrive like the mobile phone.
So what is needed for electric.
Low cost safe Lithium Air
Fast charging or a standard battery that can be swopped fast.
Airfield infrastructure for fast charging/battery swop and charge.
May be a 40ft container with a big cheap static battery with a 3 phase supply
just plug in and DC charge at a very high current DC better than AC.
So what is needed is what got the IBM PC going Standards
These are coming in Battery and charging infrastructure this will be from Electric cars.
To give you an idea GM is just about to launch a 200 mile no compromise full electric car the Chevy Bolt to complement their 50 mile electric drive ICengined Chevy Volt (100,000 already sold) the best car they have ever made.
So I believe electrics will happen but like all new concepts will take 20 years to arrive like the mobile phone.
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HF
And when I am flying my all battery electric plane I expect to land and get a full recharge within 10 minutes so I can carry on the next leg to my important meeting wherever or the network will be so complete that someone will plonk a replacement unit in place within that 10 minutes
Pace
And when I am flying my all battery electric plane I expect to land and get a full recharge within 10 minutes so I can carry on the next leg to my important meeting wherever
or the network will be so complete that someone will plonk a replacement unit in place within that 10 minutes Pace