CDC Begins Passenger "Funneling" re 2019-nCov
 

I'm a SLF.

The first patient in the US has contracted the very fast moving 2019-nCoV. (A new SARS-like virus first seen in Wuhan, China)

The United States' CDC has begun "funneling" passengers entering the US from Wuhan, China. This entails re-ticketing US bound passengers from the Wuhan region so that they arrive into US airports that have bio-screening in operation. Currently KSFO, KJFK and KLAX are bio screening having screened over 1,000 passengers since Friday, Jan 17, 2020. To come online this week (Jan 21- 26) with the screenings are KATL and KORD. I took this info from a CDC telebriefing that is an mp3 recording publicly available at the CDC website (cdc.gov) via a big link on the right side of their home page. I don't have enough posts / membership time to post the direct link but perhaps you can figure it out cdc.gov/media/releases/2020/t0121-Telebriefing-Coronavirus.mp3 just ad the ht and the ww in front.

My understanding from the telebriefing is that no redirecting is involved in the "funneling." The CDC is proceeding aggressively and I welcome it. Other US government agencies are already involved. Globally things are moving fast. The tele briefing is being transcribed but until that is available, the mp3 recording is available. The actual tele briefing begins at 34:38 into the mp3 file. Our cherished media reporters were afforded a limited Q&A so you can hear one of their main sources. There's lotsa info in the tele briefing regarding the one patient, when and where he travelled, the care being given to him and his own, educated early reporting of his symptoms.

I imagine the employers have already started briefing crews.

Although Wuhan is perhaps the largest switching point in China, it is not the primary departure point for international flights.
My guess is many passengers from Beijing or similar airports got there via a change of trains in Wuhan.
So the effort, although laudable, is far from airtight.

That seems far stretched. Wuhan is 4 hours from Beijing and Shanghai, and that's not counting the time needed to get to the airport from the train (adding another hour). Most people will have connecting itineraries from WUH via Beijing, Shanghai, HKG, or other airports. The number of people on US-bound itineraries taking the train through Wuhan to get to another airport will be miniscule compared to people on tickets originating on Wuhan.

So, the evolved corona virus has an expected incubation period of somewhat more than the flight time from A to B, by a week to two weeks. Screening will only detect that part of the population that is sick enough to be detectable, and not sick enough to have been incapacitated to the extent that boarding the flight would have been denied or not possible due to health of the patient.

Without immunisation, there is only one method to stop a spread of an aerosolised type virus, or one that is otherwise transmitted from contact, and that is to restrict contact for the period necessary to ensure symptoms can be identified.

FWIW, Elvis has already left the building, the screening is lipgloss, and is limited in efficacy. The preliminary R nought on this one is high enough to need prompt and substantial controls in order to stop spread in the population, being higher than the SARS or MERS rates, but this is early days. Movement interactions over the last few weeks will become key in attempting to put the genie back in the bottle, but screening itself is currently is not the panacea of defence.

The period of incubation to the point of being contagious will be a major factor in developing the strategy to limit the spread. So far the lethality of the latest outbreak is lower at present than MERS or SARS have been, but is still serious.

Masks and gloves, hand-washes, and minimising contact with others. go to cdc.gov for latest info.

Latest news are that Wuhan is "closed" by authorities by canceling planes and trains leaving the city, and suspending buses, subways and ferries within it.
Source: NYT

Someone is taking this very very seriously.

Looking at WUH departures, almost everything is cancelled.

Transcript of aboves "telebriefing" https://www.cdc.gov/media/releases/2...ronavirus.html

Also news (on TV, so no link now) is that the city Huanggang (next to Wuhan) is now considering a travel
ban as well - or already put it in place.

Now reported Huanqqang is closed and Eizhou has closed railway stations. This closure now actually affects approx 20 million people, so the local health and safety authorities must be very scary (and possibly know a lot more than is released).

As all should be.

Was given an unconfirmed report of the death of the father of a friend who transited in the area, and died of symptoms consistent with the outbreak. That transit was outside of Wuhan, and the death was in a 3rd country. Not confirmed, but the source is medical and usually reliable. This event is not included in the reported deaths outside of China as far as I am aware. I hope that it wasn't the latest strain, but if it was, then there is an unreported vector already well outside of Wuhan. That report was enough for me to add hepa masks and additional gloves to the bio-protection that we already carry. If you are using masks, the simple surgical masks lose effectiveness when wet, from your own breath, in about 15 minutes, they don't work all day. Your own personal hygiene is a major part of contamination, we touch our own face many times every minute, and each time is an opportunity to transfer droplets from anything else we have touched.

Will be glad to be wrong.

Meanwhile in other news...

Disease Burden of Influenza | CDC

Better the devil you know?

A Full-blown Community Epidemic
 

An update from China re 2019-nCoV in China. 6:47pm, 23 Jan, 2020

scmp.com/news/china/article/3047319/wuhan-coronavirus-full-blown-community-epidemic-chinese-health --- Add the https and www in front.

"A full-blown community epidemic" in Wuhan, a city of 11 million. Bigger than NYC.

Guan Yi, director of the State Key Laboratory of Emerging Infectious Diseases at Hong Kong University said, "Although a travel ban had been introduced in the city on Thursday morning, the “golden time” to contain the virus had passed, as most of the people travelling home for the Lunar New Year holiday had already left. They might have been in contact with patients in the community and still in the incubation stage when they left Wuhan. They are probably virus carriers on the move.”

The US person who was infected is being treated in a hospital a few miles from where I live. The good news is the guy was paying attention - although he felt fine on the flight home, he started feeling ill a couple days later and immediately sought treatment. Even then, they've identified nearly 40 people who he had close contact with before he realized he was sick.
This could be bad...

This dashboard is updated regularly, for those tracking the global incidence
https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/a...23467b48e9ecf6

And if you are interested in the genomic analysis of the distribution and mutations of the virus
https://nextstrain.org/ncov?c=num_date

A more extensive coverage is provided by FluTrackers ( https://flutrackers.com/forum/index.php ). The most recent updates are linked on the right.
The site is the best currently available to the general public, afaik.
Given the unprecedented measures taken by the Chinese government, including quarantining 50MM people in the heart of the country, there is sure to be massive fallout.
It would not be surprising to see much more intrusive scrutiny of travelers for health issues, essentially an HSA to supplement the TSA.

LQ877 JAN26 out of Wuhan?
 

Does anyone have any info about flight LQ877, departed Wuhan for Siem Reap on JAN26 01:17 CST? It shows valid ADS-B data but doesn't show on airport arrivals site. I thought all flights out of WUH were suspended, curious this one is the only one to fly out today?

And given there are those who deliberately sought to deceive the health screening checks (posts shared on Weibo and translated by Mandarin speakers) it may spread even quicker.

Shanghai and Hong Kong have closed major theme parks such as Disneyland and Ocean Park to prevent further spreading due to crowds.

Per the Associated Press the U.S. consulate in Wuhan will be evacuating Americans to San Francisco on Tuesday (at their own cost of course). Peugeot (PSA) is placing its employees in Wuhan under quarantine and evacuating them with the French government working on plans for other French citizens. I believe the Russian government is taking (or planning) similar actions. Canada is reporting their first case, a man who flew Wuhan-Guangzhou-Toronto.

It is sad that a totalitarian state that totally controls its population still allows wet markets. If we continue to eat exotic animals in the Far East and bushmeat in Africa, we will continue to see these issues. Totally avoidable.

Now the first world has to pick up the pieces.

The reports from China now indicate that the patients who have caught the virus are infectious to others within as little as a day, whereas symptoms such as fever do not develop for at least several days to a week.
That very much calls into question the effectiveness of the airport screening as currently implemented. Imho, it seems likely that the few early international cases will soon have considerable company.
Unless there is a cure found fairly soon, we should expect much harsher travel restrictions.
.

How about a travel ban?

Quite possibly in the cards, but too late to be effective if the virus is indeed as contagious as some researchers believe, with an R0 of greater than 3.