Weather 22nd December 2015
 

Hi,

Wondering if anybody knows what the weather is likely to be from say 6.00pm to 9.00am on 23rd at BHX and Dub.

I know there are websites that give 10 day forecasts but guess some of ye here can see the wood from the trees and give me the best forecast.



Many thanks,

Maddie

I have consulted several aviation meteorological websites , plotted the jetstream position , atmospheric pressure and wind models and have come to the firm conclusion that between 6pm-9am on Dec 23rd in both BHX and DUB , it will be dark and cool , getting brighter in the morning. Any more questions , ask me on the 22nd.

When I trained as a Met Observer waaaay back I was told that if faremers and other members of the public phoned to ask for a forecast then i was to answer as follows: If it was raining, say it's raining but we expect some sunny spells later. If it was not raining, say we expect a bright morning with a chance of some showers later. Seemed to cover most eventualities!

The Met office are still at it. They are very fond of forecasting that visibility will be poor in cloud and hill fog...... :D

Maddie, if anyone could accurately forecast the weather in the UK & Ireland just 1 day in advance, let alone 10, they would become millionaires! I know you're a nervous flyer but rest assured that whatever the weather all will be fine.

Birmingham forecasting 35% chance of rain showers and a South-Westerly wind of 12 knots and Dublin a 40% chance of rain with a 17kt wind from the South-West. Both airports will be around 11c. No problems either-way.

The best way of finding out the weather on the 22nd is to ask the Met Office on the 23rd. No, I'm not joking.

D to A, we can all find advanced weather forecasts but just for fun let's see how accurate your source will have been on the day ;)

Good evening, thank you all for your replies. Yep, I asked the question because having managed to 'dodge' a lot of the bad weather, I found myself on a flight on 4th December, which was heading straight into Storm Desmond. I didn't fly, and if I thought there could be a repeat on 22nd, I would have to reconsider my Christmas travel plans.

Many thanks,

Maddie

Maddie - the first clear indication you will get will be on the BBC1 Countryfile show on Sunday evening at around 6pm - the weekly forecast is usually around 10 minutes before the end.

Hotel Tango - I have just looked at Accuweather's forecast which goes to 45 days! It must be a complete work of fiction beyond the first week!

Did you then check after whether there was any issues on the flight you should have taken? I bet there weren't apart from maybe routine delays/a bit of turbulence to take the boredom out of it.

Take it from me, and many others, we wouldn't take you up there if it wasn't within the strict limits that we have to operate within, after all my ass is strapped to that aeroplane too and I want to come home to my family at the end of the day.

If you can't face it then fair enough, but why don't you just take the ferry then, that would be far more dangerous!

I don't think it's about danger per se, turbulence can be very upsetting. I have myself changed travel plans due to expected bad weather and I've been through my fair share of tubulence - both in large (747) and small (Saab 340, J41 and an 8 pax machine on the edge of a South African thunderstorm).

Further, I never go on ferries as the turbulence they can dole out is far worse! In 50 years, I have never doubted the aircraft would reach it's destination intact - I am not a nervous flyer and love being SLF - but severe turbulence I can do without.

I remember being in Detroit (some years ago now) on my way to JFK. There were thunderstorms all around with lots of impressive lightning. I was, to say the least, not feeling terribly comfortable about going up in that weather. We departed, zigzagged our way through, and to my utter amazement never felt the slightest bump. It was a total non event.

Current GFS computer model for that period shows a moderate SW air flow over UK/Ireland.Light showers possible.Strong SW jetstream over SE England.Low pressure from Iceland to Hebrides.Cooler than what we currently have but about normal for December.


These forecast models do change however.

These computer models are generally a waste of time, which is why forecasting has become so laughingly inaccurate!

The mild, breezy weather is expected to continue for a while yet.

The worst problem with turbulence is being confined to your seat when you are busting for a pee, having watched for a short queue at the bog for a while, and just as it becomes worth getting into the queue the poxy seat belt lights go on. Then when, eventually they go off, I (being a bit of a slow old fart) end up at the end of an even longer queue than before.

Shouldn't be much of a problem BHX to DUB, though!

Of course the reported wind at BHX bears only passing resemblance to that actually experienced - I find multiplying the reported wind speed by about 1.5 (or checking the wind at East Midlands and assuming its going to be similar) gives a reasonable impression of what the approach is actually going to feel like.
I'm convinced the Birmingham anemometer is sealed in an air tight box at the bottom of a deep shaft!:)

I share your feeling: once I decided not to go for a pee while on the ground in BRU saying I would do it just before the meal service ( I am a freak about washing the hands before eating). I got the longest lasting "fasten you seat belts" sign in a Trans-european flight I remember and needless to say the need to pee was becoming more and more intense.

Bad decision on the ground.

Hi Guys,

It is tonight I am flying, is the descent likely to be very uncomfortable into Dublin circa 9.00pm.