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The Future of Economy Class

Old 12th Apr 2020, 21:02
  #81 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Apr 2002
Location: UK
Posts: 1,051
I'm going to miss travelling.

Until sufficient testing has been done world-wide to show that the virus has (as far as any virus can be) eliminated or at the very least contained and I have been inoculated I'm going to be ultra cautious about coming into contact with other people. The idea of being on a plane in any seat simply isn't attractive any more. OK, so I'm atypical but I'm also over 70,mildly asthmatic and type 2 diabetic. I'm not extremely vulnerable but I am "at risk" (or so my doctor tells me).

How long until my "requirements" are met? In my view atleast 2 years fom now. If I am not atypical then the airlines are in for a very, very rough ride.
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Old 13th Apr 2020, 14:45
  #82 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Dec 2003
Location: A little South of North
Posts: 112
I'm more-or-less in the same boat as Hartington as regard future travel. In my case no asthma but I do technically have heart desease (although quite fit after a heart infarct over 21 years ago) and am also a type 2 diabetic. Although previously much higher, since retirement I still flew an average of 45-50 flights per year. It will take a long time before I feel confident enough to a) venture far away from home and b) travel in the confines of a metal tube with hundreds of others. I don't have statistics at hand, but from my personal past observations in the more recent years, the older generation constitute a fairly significant percentage of leisure air travelers, particularly outside peak school holiday periods. If the majority of seniors think like Hartington and myself, this unfortunately may also contribute towards harder times for many airlines in terms of survival.
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Old 13th Apr 2020, 19:06
  #83 (permalink)  
Paxing All Over The World
 
Join Date: May 2001
Location: Hertfordshire, UK.
Age: 63
Posts: 9,103
I agree that is going to be a big factor. I know that a lot of the Reward Seats in the big airlines are taken up by grandparents going to visit their families around the world and they may not be so keen.

New Zealand is contemplating a compulsory two week quarantine for ALL who arrive. EVEN after the main infection has gone through. They are looking at keeping their island isolated until a good vaccine is available.
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Old 17th Apr 2020, 08:21
  #84 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Sep 2007
Location: London
Posts: 507
The other thing that could happen would be a build up of herd immunity. Once the reinfection rate is lower than 0.5 the virus will die out. However, we are unlikely to get this as long as we are all self isolating and once/if we stop self isolating the load on health services will increase. The assumption is that around 1% of those infected will die, but that assumes that everyone who needs it gets treatment. I suspect that Governments will have to relax lockdowns as populations become increasingly gaga but border controls will remain longer so air international travel will remian constrained. We can write this summer off, the question mark is over next summer. A lot will depend upon confidence which cannot be predicted and is very fickle thing..

Once it is safe to travel (but absent an effective vaccine this will be relative) two things could happen:

The huge pent-up demand will result in lots of people travelling.

Loss of earnings during the lockdown will result in low demand. I have shares in IAG, TUI & Carnival. I doubt that they will be paying dividends or reach the value that they have been at for a few years.. I'm lucky, my shares are a sideshow I'm due to receive a defined benefit pension soon. What about those relying on savings or who have a defined contribution pension? Of course Government inspired reflation may help out.

Perhaps one will cancel out the other. I am optimistic for summer 2022, I don't know about 2021.

Me, I hear that Cathay wants the HK Government to buy tickets to sell when things recover. If I got a really good deal and the advice was its is safe to travel, I'd be really tempted.
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Old 17th Apr 2020, 09:12
  #85 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Oct 2018
Location: Ferrara
Posts: 1,568
well if Economy goes to 2+2 with the middle seat on each side empty it'll be like the good old days.......
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Old 17th Apr 2020, 14:37
  #86 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Dec 2003
Location: A little South of North
Posts: 112
....but with fares equal to the bad old days!
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Old 17th Apr 2020, 16:09
  #87 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Oct 2018
Location: Ferrara
Posts: 1,568
well we might get a free sandwich on BA..............
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Old 9th May 2020, 23:07
  #88 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Dec 2009
Location: Brighton
Age: 46
Posts: 51
I think that flying will become more expensive as airlines will be encouraged / forced to have social distancing as much as possible on flights, so planes will have less people on them.

I don't think that stops you catching stuff via their aircon, but I guess they can only minimise risk, they cannot eliminate it altogether.

It might be that only people flying on business for companies with deep pockets or those with a lot of spare cash will be the ones able to afford to fly.
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