CDC Begins Passenger "Funneling" re 2019-nCov
Now we evacuate all the Westerners to their home countries to spread the virus, two weeks unnoticed each, there as well?
However, there is not enough fear as yet to allow even minor inconveniences to be imposed. Very likely we will regret this missed opportunity.
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As the thug regime demonstrated during SARS their data isn't worth much.
Among reports now circulating (leaking) are that the deaths are being reported as "respiratory failure/ pneumonia"
Assuming that the mortality rate is lower than SARS, based on Chinese "information" is wishful thinking..
Among reports now circulating (leaking) are that the deaths are being reported as "respiratory failure/ pneumonia"
Assuming that the mortality rate is lower than SARS, based on Chinese "information" is wishful thinking..
As the thug regime demonstrated during SARS their data isn't worth much.
Among reports now circulating (leaking) are that the deaths are being reported as "respiratory failure/ pneumonia"
Assuming that the mortality rate is lower than SARS, based on Chinese "information" is wishful thinking..
Among reports now circulating (leaking) are that the deaths are being reported as "respiratory failure/ pneumonia"
Assuming that the mortality rate is lower than SARS, based on Chinese "information" is wishful thinking..
However, the Hubei province government's ratio of fatalities to recoveries reported for the sickest patients is worsening, with 76 deaths versus 44 recoveries as of Jan 26th.
So the prognosis for those worst hit is poor.
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If the nCoV is infectious while in an asymptomatic condition which is at least a 50/50 proposition, and anecdotally probable, then screening by temp probes remotely is lip gloss. The only manners to control this is by isolation, at least long enough to ensure that there is no chance of transmission to the protected population, or to develop immunity through achieving promptly a vaccine, or, to focus on personal protection and follow up therapeutic treatment of symptoms as they develop.
Of these options, we have lost the opportunity to stop the spread. The current figures ex JHU appear to be well underreporting total cases, consider that the likely spread is around an order of magnitude higher than reported to date. (If the amount of Wuhan-ians (Wuhan-ettes?) that are getting onto planes and then showing symptoms around the world, some 60 so far all happened to be at the same market/restaurant/beerfest/square dance/legionnaires convention, then their numbers make sense, otherwise, the spread was much higher in Wuhan at the start of the program, or people who fly happen to be more susceptible to the virus. Whatever. Or the reservoir numbers were already huge.
Good news so far is that of those that travelled overseas, there appears to be a very low mortality rate, and that suggests that discounting attenuation, that reasonable medical symptomatic treatment may be effective. That is just hinted at and is a best hope case.
In our region, shelves have already emptied of all N95 masks and hand sanitiser. That is a good thing, it at least suggests that at least the public are taking the issue seriously even if the govt's haven't. However, the use of masks even in the medical profession is just dismal, look at any images of people taking the time to put on a mask, and then lowering under their nose, while standing around other people. Watch if they take any care to avoid touching the mask, or taking any care with the mask being contaminated... Disposal of masks is also reminiscent of the condoms around Rome. So.... you get out of the bad place (supermarket etc...) and then just outside of the car you drop the pesky mask on the ground. How? Were the hands in gloves? Were the hands cleaned after being contaminated by removing the masks before touching the car door handle? (thanks for leaving a potential viral load in the carpark BTW, well done sir/ma'am). Personal protection is not that hard, but it takes deliberate steps to be effective. If the individual is not deliberate, then there is little point in bothering, in which case, take solace in the current anecdotal effectiveness of therapy at least outside of China. The images of dead bodies in the hallways of the local hospital suggest that the glastnost of the Chinese govt is open only to an extent.
Time for a holiday, at home, away from all others, and away from schools.
Of these options, we have lost the opportunity to stop the spread. The current figures ex JHU appear to be well underreporting total cases, consider that the likely spread is around an order of magnitude higher than reported to date. (If the amount of Wuhan-ians (Wuhan-ettes?) that are getting onto planes and then showing symptoms around the world, some 60 so far all happened to be at the same market/restaurant/beerfest/square dance/legionnaires convention, then their numbers make sense, otherwise, the spread was much higher in Wuhan at the start of the program, or people who fly happen to be more susceptible to the virus. Whatever. Or the reservoir numbers were already huge.
Good news so far is that of those that travelled overseas, there appears to be a very low mortality rate, and that suggests that discounting attenuation, that reasonable medical symptomatic treatment may be effective. That is just hinted at and is a best hope case.
In our region, shelves have already emptied of all N95 masks and hand sanitiser. That is a good thing, it at least suggests that at least the public are taking the issue seriously even if the govt's haven't. However, the use of masks even in the medical profession is just dismal, look at any images of people taking the time to put on a mask, and then lowering under their nose, while standing around other people. Watch if they take any care to avoid touching the mask, or taking any care with the mask being contaminated... Disposal of masks is also reminiscent of the condoms around Rome. So.... you get out of the bad place (supermarket etc...) and then just outside of the car you drop the pesky mask on the ground. How? Were the hands in gloves? Were the hands cleaned after being contaminated by removing the masks before touching the car door handle? (thanks for leaving a potential viral load in the carpark BTW, well done sir/ma'am). Personal protection is not that hard, but it takes deliberate steps to be effective. If the individual is not deliberate, then there is little point in bothering, in which case, take solace in the current anecdotal effectiveness of therapy at least outside of China. The images of dead bodies in the hallways of the local hospital suggest that the glastnost of the Chinese govt is open only to an extent.
Time for a holiday, at home, away from all others, and away from schools.
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Re N95 masks, these masks come in different sizes and you need to be fit tested, shown how to use them etc. for them to be very effective. .For example, the fit around the bridge of the nose is critical as if this is not adjusted correctly, the gap will allow particles to enter the mask.
If there is any bright lining, the severe complications appear to be a limited subset of older, or immune compromised, diabetic, cardiac or pulmonary compromised subjects. If that is correct, or remains the case, then medical care outside of China appears to have a fair chance of minimising the adverse outcomes.
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I know our cabin crews (not a Bus) were complaining of stale air when they were first incorporated.
PS
And, thinking about it, it may not be long before precautions as fdr describes may be needed on other (scheduled) flights
Last edited by Twitter; 28th Jan 2020 at 13:07.
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Chris Martenson has a very good piece on this.
He is not an alarmist, he has a PhD in toxicology.
We are now told the asymptomatic people are travelling being "screened" is theatre.
We now have people to people transmission.
The WHO behaving like a trade organisation.
Why the hell haven't flights been banned?
He is not an alarmist, he has a PhD in toxicology.
We are now told the asymptomatic people are travelling being "screened" is theatre.
We now have people to people transmission.
The WHO behaving like a trade organisation.
Why the hell haven't flights been banned?
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The German and Japanese human to human transmission outside of PRC should trigger a major change in the WHO position on the outbreak.
About time.
On the related closed thread, comment was made on the fact that the virus had killed at least one health worker. It suggested that health workers would be healthy subjects. Docs and nurses seem to run the gamut of condition that most of the rest of us unwashed do, wouldn't necessarily conclude that without supporting evidence. Medical teams should be more aware of the procedures for infection control, but the early video indicated the wrong types of masks being used, without eye or face protection, and in some cases incorrect mask types being worn incorrectly. To become a statistic when working in close proximity to infectious substances and more importantly all the untrained and unwitting potential carriers of the virus makes it a full time demand to be correct in procedure, which is a tall ask anywhere. Spread of virus within medical staff is historically common and is practically darn hard to avoid.
To date, the fatalities have been almost exclusively in PRC, if not totally. The stats on the external rate will become apparent once enough time has passed, but the rate of case confirmation in PRC is running at an average of 148% per day, roughly doubling every 2 days. The daily statistics show a fair amount of variation, from 117% to 218%, but a regression or average looks about the same, 1.5x daily. The external cases are running, 148% average per day since a report of 4 cases overseas. Out of all of those, there are 2 external transmissions where the person contracting the virus has not been in Wuhan.
Mortality rates are around 1.8% as of this morning, of all confirmed cases, and as above, all of those have been in Wuhan so far. In 10-14 days we will have enough info to determine whether care within PRC is a factor in the outcome. If a differential mortality rate remains, then that should give clues as to how best to adjust care in PRC to lower mortality rate. If the mortality rates result in similar trends, then that will at least provide information on who is most at risk so intervention effort can be best employed. In the meantime, the stats appear to be very quiet in Russia and in the Philippines. Suspect that all is not as quiet as indicated in the stats there.
Surgical masks have limited time effectiveness, and what effectiveness there is is in limiting transmission from the wearer to others. N95 masks with good seals have modest effectiveness to stop particulates getting to the nose and mouth. Eye protection is needed to stop a vector via that path. Once the wearer is outside of the area where airborne contamination is expected, then contamination deposits on surfaces that are then touched and transferred by contact of the hand to the face is a major problem; entering a lift or opening a door is inviting a transfer if gloves and sterile procedures to avoid transfer to the face is not employed. That comes down to not touching your own face with your own hands, which the mask of any sort will assist with. Fidgeting with the mask is inviting transfer... This is not rocket science, but in our own operations, we have had to review and adjust protocols to avoid the risks that we have interfacing with those involved in the care of such patients.
Good news is that the rate of transmission (er, case confirmation) will not remain at 148% per day... the bad news is that it may increase or decrease. Fortunately, It is most likely to decrease, as at the current rate, by the end of February, the total cases would have grown to over a Billion, (with a B), and that would be a fairly noticeable effect on activity rates, so isolation is likely to occur naturally, which will reduce that rate. Due to the latency problem arising from the possibility that this virus is contagious while in a asymptomatic state, there is already a much larger number of people with the virus than would have been the case with SARS and MERS. Assuming that all infections lead to confirmation in due course, then there is around 1 Million vectors happily floating around in PRC and in the planes already that are asymptomatic. The unknown is how many people can be asymptomatic and still spread the virus while never becoming a confirmed case, and how many other cases are just not reported as they have been discounted as being normal illness and deaths (Phillipines, Russia etc). Suspect that the real case is around 4 times higher than that, so about 4 Million little vectors running around today. That suggests Elvis has left the building, and all up this is a tail chase of mitigation more than prevention.
This virus is going to run its course, and hopefully medical care will cope with the patient load which will certainly increase, and will be able to come up with appropriate therapies within existing resources to moderate fatalities. The clue may well be the difference in outcome between PRC and external today. If not, then by the end of February, we need about 30 Million new plots for burials.
The rates are going to change, and hopefully all will moderate, that is transmission control reducing new confirmed cases, and mortality rate from confirmed cases. They can move in either direction, but the efforts are being made to lower them all. The planet has a lot of people on it, and the annual mortality rate, without tiffs between nations is in the 3% range with new births making up for that. An increase in mortality rates for various parts of the population of 1.8% is pretty rough on that part of the population, but wont ultimately end up being apocalyptic. It may ruin the individuals day, but it will bw a blip in the overall growth rate, we delay messing up the planet by about 6 months. For the elderly, infirm, and young there is an incentive to take precautions, it's their lives that are most likely at stake at present. The elderly can mainly take responsibility for their own cases, the young increase the burden on the parents, and that is a powerful incentive to get it right.
Curious looking B744. (Chinese characters for Emergency Opening are a clue)
A fashion statement. If done well, a crew would have a low but not zero risk of infection. Someone would have gone to the toilet, eaten, scratched their nose, etc in the flight from A to B. Assume that is zero, they are happy campers. The plane, it needs cleaning, and checking before going out on more activity. Monitoring the crew and pax for the incubation period and doing testing for the virus would clear the crew and be anecdotal to the airplane. Was there catering, ground staff onboard, CIQH etc in Wuhan..? Plane will shure look purty after it's scrub though.
A fashion statement. If done well, a crew would have a low but not zero risk of infection. Someone would have gone to the toilet, eaten, scratched their nose, etc in the flight from A to B. Assume that is zero, they are happy campers. The plane, it needs cleaning, and checking before going out on more activity. Monitoring the crew and pax for the incubation period and doing testing for the virus would clear the crew and be anecdotal to the airplane. Was there catering, ground staff onboard, CIQH etc in Wuhan..? Plane will shure look purty after it's scrub though.
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BA is halting flights to PEK and PVG:
As health concerns mount and waiver options grow some airlines are going a step further in their response to the virus outbreak in China. British Airways is taking the significant step of halting its flights to Shanghai and Beijing effective immediately. A formal announcement is expected early Wednesday in London.
Based on documents reviewed by PaxEx.Aero the carrier’s flights BA39 and BA169 on 28 January 2020 will be the last flights in for a month. The crew working those flights will return as passengers and all downline crew will also return on the BA38 and BA168 flights leaving China on 29 January.
https://paxex.aero/2020/01/british-a...nghai-flights/
British Airways to halt Beijing, Shanghai flights
28 January 2020 By Seth MillerAs health concerns mount and waiver options grow some airlines are going a step further in their response to the virus outbreak in China. British Airways is taking the significant step of halting its flights to Shanghai and Beijing effective immediately. A formal announcement is expected early Wednesday in London.
Based on documents reviewed by PaxEx.Aero the carrier’s flights BA39 and BA169 on 28 January 2020 will be the last flights in for a month. The crew working those flights will return as passengers and all downline crew will also return on the BA38 and BA168 flights leaving China on 29 January.
Jan 28 (Reuters) - Finnish airline Finnair said it would suspend its routes to Nanjing and Beijing's Daxing airport until the end of March, the first European airline to cancel flights to mainland China amid growing fears about the spread of a new flu-like virus.
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/01/28/reut...rs-spread.html
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/01/28/reut...rs-spread.html