Drone airlines - how long?
Join Date: May 2009
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Hmmm. Take a look at the Ryanair thread here:
http://www.pprune.org/rumours-news/6...-runway-7.html
If so many pilots are unable to agree on how to successfully drive a 737 and where and when to actually take off, what chance a computer getting it right every time?
http://www.pprune.org/rumours-news/6...-runway-7.html
If so many pilots are unable to agree on how to successfully drive a 737 and where and when to actually take off, what chance a computer getting it right every time?
Paxing All Over The World
Yes, my first thought was 'Sudden rain squall that contaminates the runway'. But the landside human responsible (be it local for a remote airfield or at a large hub) will then tell the computers about the change in take off / landing parameters and the contamination and it'll all be wonderful. 
Join Date: Apr 2010
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Thinking about it I can see the pressure coming from 3 directions:-
1. The military are already looking at drones/unmanned aircraft to deliver supplies over significant distances - that will no doubt include R&D against hacking...... and if they can do it?
2. Amazon etc are looking at delivery by drones - so that leads to scaling up - packages, then van loads, then truck loads......
3. Airline management want a more uniform, controled and lower cost operation
It's going to happen I think - and maybe sooner than we expect......... after Mr B introduces the MoMA it's going to be hard for airframers/engine manufacturers to keep reducing costs by 15% per design iteration and single manned/unmanned will be an obvious way forward
1. The military are already looking at drones/unmanned aircraft to deliver supplies over significant distances - that will no doubt include R&D against hacking...... and if they can do it?
2. Amazon etc are looking at delivery by drones - so that leads to scaling up - packages, then van loads, then truck loads......
3. Airline management want a more uniform, controled and lower cost operation
It's going to happen I think - and maybe sooner than we expect......... after Mr B introduces the MoMA it's going to be hard for airframers/engine manufacturers to keep reducing costs by 15% per design iteration and single manned/unmanned will be an obvious way forward
e.g. train driver and employer in dispute - its the travelling public who suffer the most inconvenience and they are not a party to the dispute.
Automate train operation like the vast number of metro's in the world and thats one more self-entitled, overpaid train driver put of the loop.
Although like you, I doubt that aircraft will be fully automated in this century as a train can coast to a stop safely in most circumstances whereas the end state for any significant aircraft failure is 'death of passengers'.
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https://jrupprechtlaw.com/amazon-dro...azon-prime-air
XKCD (Randall Munroe, CC BY-NC 2.5): "Crowdsourced steering" doesn't sound quite as appealing as "self driving."
Conclusion:
Many have written on this topic because they see the technology taking off. They see the progress in the technology that many have made and assume that drone delivery will be allowed soon. They get the “West Coast” mindset where they think if enough money and technology are thrown at the problem, it will be fixed regardless of the law. Additionally, most writing on or marketing drone delivery do not understand all the legal issues.
Aviation is an “East Coast” industry where the laws out of D.C. will heavily influence the business. Aviation is an extremely regulated environment. The faster the companies operating in this area realize that fact, the better off they will be so that they can actually do these types of operations.
Amazon still has a long way to go before drone delivery can be experienced in real life by the American public, not just as a short clip on the internet.
Many have written on this topic because they see the technology taking off. They see the progress in the technology that many have made and assume that drone delivery will be allowed soon. They get the “West Coast” mindset where they think if enough money and technology are thrown at the problem, it will be fixed regardless of the law. Additionally, most writing on or marketing drone delivery do not understand all the legal issues.
Aviation is an “East Coast” industry where the laws out of D.C. will heavily influence the business. Aviation is an extremely regulated environment. The faster the companies operating in this area realize that fact, the better off they will be so that they can actually do these types of operations.
Amazon still has a long way to go before drone delivery can be experienced in real life by the American public, not just as a short clip on the internet.
XKCD (Randall Munroe, CC BY-NC 2.5): "Crowdsourced steering" doesn't sound quite as appealing as "self driving."
Join Date: Apr 2010
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" what humans want is not to be held hostage by other humans having an argument with another human and themselves becoming a casualty."
most humans want a flight that's as cheap as possible IMHO
most humans want a flight that's as cheap as possible IMHO
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The world need a buss-sized drone that can replace short flights, specially for transport across water. A passenger drone travelling around 200 km/hr could easily outcompete commercial airlines where flight time for a jet is 1 hour or less due to a drone could take off and land from small spaces near a parking lot with more convenient locations than an airport.
I see a drone with:
- About 4 electrically driven propeller pods each side of a bus shaped body.
- 2 petrol engines to create the power, with separate fuel tanks for security.
- Batteries to boost power at takeoff and enough capacity to land safely if engines cut out.
- Each side would have separate controls for 2+2 pods, so if 1 set cut out the drone could still land safely.
- If landing on water the whole unit would be kept floating by airbags.
- Completely automated flight but a single attendant for safety and to control that eveybody has a ticket and handle unruliness.
- Remotely but cable connected pre-programmed flight destination to avoid possible hijackings.
- Flight controlled by gps, safety by radar and lidar.
- Laser based ground scan to find safe emergency landing spots.
- Around 50 passengers per drone for versatility and about 5-7 tons payload.
- Price for each unit would need to be in the Euro 500k to 1 million bracket to be competitive.
Public interest and safety would be satisfied by the buss-drones beeing owned by regulated entities, and production and maintenance could be strictly controlled. A separate commercial drone-buss flying zone could be regulated for around 500-1000 meters above ground level.
A nicer interior "private jet" version of the drone could be developed to replace helicopters and increase the market. Commuter routes into traffic congested city-centers is another market.
I see a drone with:
- About 4 electrically driven propeller pods each side of a bus shaped body.
- 2 petrol engines to create the power, with separate fuel tanks for security.
- Batteries to boost power at takeoff and enough capacity to land safely if engines cut out.
- Each side would have separate controls for 2+2 pods, so if 1 set cut out the drone could still land safely.
- If landing on water the whole unit would be kept floating by airbags.
- Completely automated flight but a single attendant for safety and to control that eveybody has a ticket and handle unruliness.
- Remotely but cable connected pre-programmed flight destination to avoid possible hijackings.
- Flight controlled by gps, safety by radar and lidar.
- Laser based ground scan to find safe emergency landing spots.
- Around 50 passengers per drone for versatility and about 5-7 tons payload.
- Price for each unit would need to be in the Euro 500k to 1 million bracket to be competitive.
Public interest and safety would be satisfied by the buss-drones beeing owned by regulated entities, and production and maintenance could be strictly controlled. A separate commercial drone-buss flying zone could be regulated for around 500-1000 meters above ground level.
A nicer interior "private jet" version of the drone could be developed to replace helicopters and increase the market. Commuter routes into traffic congested city-centers is another market.
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Short flights are only attractive if you can essentially turn up and go - as with a car or a train. When you have to arrive 90 minutes before the flight and go through all the security hassle they become unattractive. Plus of course the airport doesn't make any money unless they can trap you in the shopping arcade
Short range Bus Drones might work but only if they can operate like a bus - ie independent of large fixed airfields, security etc etc
Short range Bus Drones might work but only if they can operate like a bus - ie independent of large fixed airfields, security etc etc
The problem with quadcopter-type drones when scaled up, is the velocity and noise of the downwash. When V-22 Ospreys were sent to help after the Nepal earthquake, they were rapidly withdrawn when it was found their downwash just added to the destruction.
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Now there were those things with downward-directed airflow operating over water that you don't much see any more except where the situation demands amphibious operation... ah yes.. hovercraft. (Top speed is ~150 km/h). They were commercially viable across the English channel until the tunnel was completed.