Flights to US - best time to buy ?
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Flights to US - best time to buy ?
Potentially flying to US in mid February for 2 weeks, not sure when if any is best time to buy........ any suggestions ?
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Prof. Airport Engineer
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I use a generic set of rules to complement the airline revenue management systems (RM for short), because they determine the fare and that determines when you should buy the ticket.
The airline process of finding the right mix of fares for each flight is called yield, inventory or revenue management (RM). It is complex, using sophisticated computer software (and historical data in the software), that helps the airline estimate the demand for seats on a particular flight, so it can price the seats accordingly. And it is an ongoing process, requiring continual adjustments as market conditions change. Unexpected discounting in a particular market by a competitor, for instance, can leave an airline with too many unsold seats if they do not match the discounts. So the fares go up and down over time.
Up to 6 months before the flight, the RM systems are set on automatic and the fares are not especially cheap but they do adjust as sales fluctuate. Because no-one is actually watching them, the limits to the adjustment are deliberately quite constrained.
Then at 6 months, the RM people start to look at the individual flight once a week and adjust fares/ number of seats available to fit the sales pattern to their historical patterns. Now the fares can start to move. In a year when the travel world is generally a bit unsettled or there is a bit of a fare war on somewhere, then fares can suddenly change. At about 3 months in, the RM people start to look at the flight each day, and fare changes can come suddenly and unexpectedly. If sales in a class are up/down (maybe due to an unexpected concert at the destination or a cruise ship arrival where all the pax are linked to fares with another airline), then the RM people adjust the fares and numbers of seats.
When I have to buy air tickets, I start to look and have my money ready at 5 months out. It doesn’t always happen that a bargain leaps out then, but it does happen. We flew on a serious Middle East airline, first class, Oz-EU and back, for the business class price a couple of years ago. Otherwise I wait until the 2-3 months bracket and buy. So the short answer is that 8-12 weeks beforehand is where the best lot of good prices are likely to show. At 2 months out, it is probably too late to get a good fare. At one month, it is almost impossible. I despaired when one of my kids suddenly decided to join us on a trip Oz-EU but only a month before the trip. And this for a flight into the EU summer (which is prime air fare time). He flew the cheapest flight, which was Oz-Finland-Hungary in a marathon of obscure airlines and airports and hours – all for twice the normal price. And twice the elapsed time that we took. Seems to have improved his attention to air fare purchasing details though.
The airline process of finding the right mix of fares for each flight is called yield, inventory or revenue management (RM). It is complex, using sophisticated computer software (and historical data in the software), that helps the airline estimate the demand for seats on a particular flight, so it can price the seats accordingly. And it is an ongoing process, requiring continual adjustments as market conditions change. Unexpected discounting in a particular market by a competitor, for instance, can leave an airline with too many unsold seats if they do not match the discounts. So the fares go up and down over time.
Up to 6 months before the flight, the RM systems are set on automatic and the fares are not especially cheap but they do adjust as sales fluctuate. Because no-one is actually watching them, the limits to the adjustment are deliberately quite constrained.
Then at 6 months, the RM people start to look at the individual flight once a week and adjust fares/ number of seats available to fit the sales pattern to their historical patterns. Now the fares can start to move. In a year when the travel world is generally a bit unsettled or there is a bit of a fare war on somewhere, then fares can suddenly change. At about 3 months in, the RM people start to look at the flight each day, and fare changes can come suddenly and unexpectedly. If sales in a class are up/down (maybe due to an unexpected concert at the destination or a cruise ship arrival where all the pax are linked to fares with another airline), then the RM people adjust the fares and numbers of seats.
When I have to buy air tickets, I start to look and have my money ready at 5 months out. It doesn’t always happen that a bargain leaps out then, but it does happen. We flew on a serious Middle East airline, first class, Oz-EU and back, for the business class price a couple of years ago. Otherwise I wait until the 2-3 months bracket and buy. So the short answer is that 8-12 weeks beforehand is where the best lot of good prices are likely to show. At 2 months out, it is probably too late to get a good fare. At one month, it is almost impossible. I despaired when one of my kids suddenly decided to join us on a trip Oz-EU but only a month before the trip. And this for a flight into the EU summer (which is prime air fare time). He flew the cheapest flight, which was Oz-Finland-Hungary in a marathon of obscure airlines and airports and hours – all for twice the normal price. And twice the elapsed time that we took. Seems to have improved his attention to air fare purchasing details though.
Paxing All Over The World
Helol
The LHR-JNB route has a somewhat simpler set up - if you want to fly direct, there are only three carriers and they all operate daily, some twice daily. Their fares all tend to track each other.
Also, as it is a prime destination the options for flyer miles upgrades etc are highly restricted. They tend to get booked within days of the 360 day advance opening. That is due to families who have to travel in school holidays and can book early or retired folks who can book the low periods. So I find that ALL FFM options are difficult.
If you want to fly indirect you have all the usual suspects: AMS, CDG, FRA, MUC and then the 'dog-leg' ones that take much longer via the Middle East. Currently, these are the cheapest as one particular carrier (lots of red paint) want market share. Friends of mine have used IST for connections too,
Lastly, the Cape Town market is worse as it is THE destination in Africa and only BA run there all year round. VS still have flights in peak but I seem to recall that they are cutting that to reassign aircraft, following the merger with Delta but I sit to be corrected on that.
All in all, the JNB route is sewn up and you would need to watch for 'flash sales' that the carriers have started doing in recent years. These are all down to the factors that OverRun set out so well.
The LHR-JNB route has a somewhat simpler set up - if you want to fly direct, there are only three carriers and they all operate daily, some twice daily. Their fares all tend to track each other.
Also, as it is a prime destination the options for flyer miles upgrades etc are highly restricted. They tend to get booked within days of the 360 day advance opening. That is due to families who have to travel in school holidays and can book early or retired folks who can book the low periods. So I find that ALL FFM options are difficult.
If you want to fly indirect you have all the usual suspects: AMS, CDG, FRA, MUC and then the 'dog-leg' ones that take much longer via the Middle East. Currently, these are the cheapest as one particular carrier (lots of red paint) want market share. Friends of mine have used IST for connections too,
Lastly, the Cape Town market is worse as it is THE destination in Africa and only BA run there all year round. VS still have flights in peak but I seem to recall that they are cutting that to reassign aircraft, following the merger with Delta but I sit to be corrected on that.
All in all, the JNB route is sewn up and you would need to watch for 'flash sales' that the carriers have started doing in recent years. These are all down to the factors that OverRun set out so well.
I've been crossing the Atlantic to/from southern UK at my own expense regularly for a few years now, and in my experience the best fares are to be found in the 6-10 week window before the travel date. It always helps to check the "my dates are flexible" option when searching for flights. There are often some good deals to be found there. I alternate between BA and United, however, being a Star Alliance member, there are some good deals to be found on United if you don't mind a short connection via, say, Brussels or Frankfurt.
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The rule is really very simple, and does not vary by route: the cheapest tickets are available either two weeks before, or two weeks after, the day you book and pay for yours.
Skyscanner show a bar graph giving the cheapest months to fly on a particular route rather than the cheapest dates to buy the tickets.
Flash deals can be a good option, the airline we can't mention here is having a 3 day sale with some good reductions at the moment.
My usual long haul trip of Singapore - London return has over twenty possible airlines offering one stop or direct flights. Fares tend to be very competitive and there is always someone having a sale on. Even the non stop premium charge over a connecting flight isn't that high as options for easy transits enroute are plentiful and the airlines can't get away with too much price loading as a connection only adds a couple of hours to the trip and there are numerous stop over offers.
As I have my leave requests for the next twelve months done early on in the year, I can choose the cheaper dates, and wait for a flash sale or jump in around the ten to twelve week mark if nothing's been offered.
Flash deals can be a good option, the airline we can't mention here is having a 3 day sale with some good reductions at the moment.
My usual long haul trip of Singapore - London return has over twenty possible airlines offering one stop or direct flights. Fares tend to be very competitive and there is always someone having a sale on. Even the non stop premium charge over a connecting flight isn't that high as options for easy transits enroute are plentiful and the airlines can't get away with too much price loading as a connection only adds a couple of hours to the trip and there are numerous stop over offers.
As I have my leave requests for the next twelve months done early on in the year, I can choose the cheaper dates, and wait for a flash sale or jump in around the ten to twelve week mark if nothing's been offered.
Just to prove there is an exception to every rule.....
I am currently on the west coast of the USA. I used United miles to get here and they booked me on Air Canada (probably no bad thing). When I booked I could only get Vancouver/Toronto/London, not the non stop. Today is Monday, I'm flying back to the UK Wednesday. A couple of hours ago I checked United (again!) to see if the non stop was available and, hey presto, it is so I've rebooked for a USD100 change fee.
So, just occasionally something will pop up at the last moment but really, don't count on it. I consider myself exceptionally lucky to have made that change.
I am currently on the west coast of the USA. I used United miles to get here and they booked me on Air Canada (probably no bad thing). When I booked I could only get Vancouver/Toronto/London, not the non stop. Today is Monday, I'm flying back to the UK Wednesday. A couple of hours ago I checked United (again!) to see if the non stop was available and, hey presto, it is so I've rebooked for a USD100 change fee.
So, just occasionally something will pop up at the last moment but really, don't count on it. I consider myself exceptionally lucky to have made that change.
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I agree with Overrun. While his explanation of the "why" is excellent, I've noticed the same thing over many years of purchasing international flights. 8 to 12 weeks out has always seemed to be the sweet spot. I also generally start looking at the fare a few weeks earlier than that just to get a feel of what "normal" is so that I have some reference point to compare to.
Again slightly diverting the thread, when is the best time to fly? Is there much difference between seasons? Obviously the school holidays will be more expensive in Y (probably cheaper in premium) but is there much difference between April, May & October on the North Atlantic? What about Asia? Not having kids I'm happy to be flexible with dates if there is a large saving to be had.
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>when is the best time to fly?
I suspect that's pretty hard to answer and depends on where you are and where you want to go.
My own personal experience traveling mostly US to/from Europe would indicate that in general spring and fall are much better than Summer, and winter is the least expensive time. Holidays, like Christmas, can be extra good if you fly on the actual holiday, like Dec 25.
But there are lots of exceptions that might be hard to predict, like a large trade show in a particular city, such as Las Vegas or Chicago in the US, or in many European countries, like the Hannover Fair in Germany or Mobile World Congress in Barcelona, etc. Too many to list.
In Asia, I know that there is "Golden Week" in Japan in May, which travel-wise is not unlike Thanksgiving in the US. But as in the US, travel is busy only at the start and end of the holiday, and often less busy during the holiday when everyone is already where they were going.
As for me, anytime is a good time to travel!
I suspect that's pretty hard to answer and depends on where you are and where you want to go.
My own personal experience traveling mostly US to/from Europe would indicate that in general spring and fall are much better than Summer, and winter is the least expensive time. Holidays, like Christmas, can be extra good if you fly on the actual holiday, like Dec 25.
But there are lots of exceptions that might be hard to predict, like a large trade show in a particular city, such as Las Vegas or Chicago in the US, or in many European countries, like the Hannover Fair in Germany or Mobile World Congress in Barcelona, etc. Too many to list.
In Asia, I know that there is "Golden Week" in Japan in May, which travel-wise is not unlike Thanksgiving in the US. But as in the US, travel is busy only at the start and end of the holiday, and often less busy during the holiday when everyone is already where they were going.
As for me, anytime is a good time to travel!
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Not UK-US
Hello, I know it's not the answer to the question, but in 2014 I booked
NZ to Europe (where ? forgotten), business class. Then I decided to change something. After a lot of travel agent inspired difficulties,
my airline (thai) told me to cancel and rebook direct with them. Was definately cheaper, even including the cancellation costs. So worth keeping in touch,
of course I do this all the time and do have a certain number of points.
Was even called in KL when the volcano was active, "get yourself to Bangkok today, and you will be on the first flight into Frankfurt, and make
your meeting."
John
NZ to Europe (where ? forgotten), business class. Then I decided to change something. After a lot of travel agent inspired difficulties,
my airline (thai) told me to cancel and rebook direct with them. Was definately cheaper, even including the cancellation costs. So worth keeping in touch,
of course I do this all the time and do have a certain number of points.
Was even called in KL when the volcano was active, "get yourself to Bangkok today, and you will be on the first flight into Frankfurt, and make
your meeting."
John
