TAF3
 

New TAF3 out.
What are your take-aways regarding removal or Prob30/40 in the first 3 hours, removal of 30 min buffers to FM or BCMG. Does this imply that you might need to hold 2 hrs more fuel for say 2 hours of CBs in the first 3 hours of the TAF? How does that work in practice for you and what are the main changes?

At aerodromes receiving a TAF3 service, and only during the first 3 hours of the TAF3 validity,
not beyond the end time for the TAF3 service if such a time is specified,
the following DO NOT apply:
a. 30 minute buffers required by paras 11.7.2.7 and 11.7.2.8,
b. the alternate or holding fuel required by :
(i) para 11.7.2.1 (c) for reduction in visibility, or ii) para 11.7.2.5 for any PROB30 or PROB40 for TS or associated severe turbulence.

Your ETA is 0430Z.
Whats your holding fuel required? (Cat B)

TAF AMD YBCG 300420Z 3005/0106
24020G35KT 2000 +TSRA SCT012 BKN022 SCT040CB
FM300545 26014KT 8000 -RA FEW008 BKN018
FM300700 27006KT 9999 NSW SCT010
FM302300 35014KT SCT020
PROB30 TEMPO 0104/0106 VRB15G25KT 3000 TSRA SCT015 BKN025 SCT045CB RMK
T 26 23 22 20 Q 1002 1004 1006 1007
TAF3

Because 0430 is not in the first 3 hours of the TAF.....I think 60mins holding would apply for the TEMPO.

Maybe....that's my reading of it :confused:

Holding or Alternate until 0545 due to the +TSRA.

That’s right, I made the arrival time after the TAF3 was issued, but before the validity period, which is sometimes the case when there is an unexpected change.
So had I planned my arrival using the previously issued TAF3, you would hope it had a holding requirement.
The thing that bothers me is the forecasts are becoming more ‘dynamic’ i.e., BOM won’t change the forecast until the last minute...
The TEMPO is for the next day, (0104/0106) so not applicable.

I think Capn Bloggs is on the money.

Unfortunately, the whole point of the TTF, which was to remove, for the next three hours, any requirements on the TAF, has been lost on the powers that be. And given the unreliability of forecasting generally, the TTF had become a bit of a trap because it lulled you into a false sense of security.

Or maybe we could get with the rest of the world and get rid of the requirements for holding and buffers on the TAF all together :rolleyes:

World's best practice, moving forward with key stakeholder involvement Morno.

Unfortunately they seem to treat a “forecast” as a “report”. I remember doing 3 RNAV missed approaches and diverting back one night with OVC003 (or something similarly prohibitive) with something like SCT020 forecast. SPECIs galore for the hour or so enroute, the 30-40 mins or approaches and holding and the hour or so back to base (so let’s say 2.5hrs at least). Had a look at NAIPS before I got in the car, still no change so gave them a call.
Reply: oh we will change the “forecast”

Various versions of that over the last few years, fortunately some which have not had as much impact.

Good luck getting through a 30 year plus career in aviation relying on predictions on a forecast produced by public servants in a comfy office.
Use your judgement.
Be safe.
Simples.

TAF3 about as handy as a back pocket in a singlet.

Great in Melbourne on a winters night, great in Darwin or Cairns in the wet season!

The airline companies must have been sold a great story by BoM for this piece of junk!

I treat our"guess the WX" organisation with a grain of salt, always have! Used only for legal reasons over 40 years, am still here! -)

Was there anything wrong with the old system, or is this just a change for the hell of it?

Yes, someone's pointless job was at threat so they made some changes to remain relevant :P

Yup, but we always carried an alternate regardless.