Time to allow privatised MET Providers ?
 

C1067/20 REVIEW C1048/20
AVIATION METEOROLOGIST FOR ALL GAF AREAS NOT AVBL DUE COVID RESPONSE
PROCEDURES
FROM 08 120800 TO 09 230929 EST
DAILY 0901/0929 2101/2129

This pisses me off, probably more than it should.
Once an apologist for the BoM. Now can't stand hearing the name of the damned place, same with 'Air SERVICES' and their 'world's best practice' horsesh*t. Years of having them inflicted on us..

Under the Chicago convention the BoM is the primary provider.
Outdated.
With advanced access to modelling etc surely approved private providers, who can do the job, should be introduced.
BoM forecasting as well for thunderstorms and fog is poor and reactive, despite the nice survey questions to industry etc. Over this crap.

Are you regularly calling the BOM to speak to them? I can't see how else this could effect you given the GAF times are 2300Z, 0500Z, 1100Z and 1700Z. The NOTAM breaks for 28 mins not at any of those times?

Someone needs to go and sniff the roses.

If you are getting this worked up about a forecaster not being available for two half hour periods per day ....

If it’s just 2 x 30 minutes it will be a change of shift in the operations centre so that the shifts don’t align. This will be in line with Stage 4 restrictions in Victoria where for example construction sites or similar shifts aren’t allowed to cross paths in the same area at the same time.

If they don’t do this then there may be no forecast at all !!

I understand why they do this shift change business at the moment and the lack of availability for those periods.

I do agree however with your comments about fog and extend them to “low cloud in general”

In the last 4 weeks I was either affected by or heard company crew affected by:

FORECAST SCT020.
ACTUAL OVC004.

FORECAST CAVOK.
ACTUAL OVC001 250m VIS

FORECAST CAVOK.
ACTUAL 2500m VIS IN DZ.

FORECAST FOG FROM 0800Z.
ACTUAL FOG FROM 0500Z.

I’ve also noticed a pattern which seems to appear. If fog appears un-forecast then for the next few days there tends to be fog on the TAF even when no “triggers” exist.

[this bit is just a Trend I believe occurrs, I don’t have evidence to back it up]

I feel like they do a generally good job but when they get it wrong they can get it very wrong.

Webcams with new interactive map feature!

Let me know if you’ve got a specific area of concern that I can follow up for you.

I’ve got 20 airports sitting on cameras that haven’t mounted them yet and I’ve got another half dozen more in NSW that are in the initial planning phase.

Did you or the others encountering those conditions file an AIREP?

If you didn't, the forecasters aren't necessarily to know about the conditions until someone does file a report.

Unfortunately it seems many don't bother, and prefer to gripe later.

Safety Bulletin: Understanding AIREPS

Amarok GTI, I would strongly encourage you and your affected colleagues to submit an AMIR for each one of those incidents that affected your operations. You can also make it part of your internal company safety report process related to any incident.

I have had reason to submit one in the past under similar circumstances when conditions went from above alternate minima to below landing minima enroute and I had to make an in-flight diversion, refueling, and wait conditions out before proceeding to the destination. It was internally investigated and a decent completed report summary came back to me a few months later. The incident was going to be used for training forecasting staff in future scenarios where the same conditions and phenomenon could develop again.

AMIR link below:
Meteorological Information Request Form - Aviation Incidents

225 required!
 

There are a number of new forecasters working in the BNE and MEL forecasting centres. The management will look into these incidents as a QA /staff development /whatever its called.

Remember no paperwork it didn't happen. you can and should also use what ever a 225 is now called.

Think this is the right form. https://www.atsb.gov.au/mandatory/asair-form/

You might save someone else from being caught by a dud forecaster. The BOM has removed them in the past.

Within the last 14 days and 10 flights on 6 occasions of suffered conditions significantly worse than forecast. Including CAVOK actual TS, SCT 5000 actual BKN 0800, CAVOK actual BKN 1200, 9999 Light rain NSW actual, BKN0400 1200m vis and heavy rain.

You can always ring the duty aviation forecaster, the phone number is on the GAF or in ERSA.

In my experience plenty of pilots bitch about the forecasts, but never seem to be pro active and ring the aviation forecaster and pass on the actual conditions.

Duty forecasters always like any feedback, as it helps them with TAF preparations etc.

Would privatising Met Services provide the same benefits as privatising the airports?

Compressor Stall: Exactly!!

“For an extra $5 you can have the premium forecast”>............

”This forecast brought to you by........”

Its a forecast (best guess), not a guarantee. Things can and often are different than expected, either better or worse.

Not sure what privatisation is going to fix? A private operator is going to be far more risk averse = >number of Prob30s and consequential costs.

Complaining about un-forecast conditions? A private operator gets the same input data - how different will their modeling be?

You can also be sure if a private operator creates a 'better' forecast than the BOM, they'll soon wind it back to be no less conservative than the BOM one.

OPs assertion about the need for private forecasters was because he simply couldn’t bear to be without access to a forecaster for 2 periods of 28 minutes each a day. Sigh........

It certainly wasn’t about the accuracy of the forecasts.

To be fair, the models are only as good as the amount of quality data they are being fed. The numbers of reporting stations here are minuscule compared to the US and Europe.

Nothing to stop one getting on the phone and telephoning someone at destination to see what it’s like before departing. Nothing quite as bad as arriving with min fuel to then suddenly discover that one‘s options have suddenly dried up.

I suspect poor forecasts are due to KPIs set by people who don't understand how the forecasts are used.

If you forecast prob 30 fog, and it only happens 25% of the time, it counts against you in your accuracy KPIs.
Whereas if you forecast CAVOK, and amend the forecast for fog 15 minutes before it rolls in, it counts as an accurate forecast.

This was the impression I got talking to a forecaster at one of the CASA information nights. They did not seem to understand why a late notice amended forecast could pose a problem.

AndrewR, sounds legit. Don’t forget the liability aspect too. Current forecasts seem to be ultra conservative - rain forecast to clear at midday clears at 11. Fronts are forecast an hour earlier that they appear, etc.

Except when the individual you ring is the pax, or a friend of his, your are to pick up. Experienced quite a number of CAVOK reports over the years when vis was as far as your finger tips in fog, fuel was never an issue though.