General Aviation industry: 18 months left
 

I ran into the HOO of a major flying school today. I gave him his first job 15 years ago and it's been a pleasure to watch him move forward in his career.

He has just been through the Part 142 wringer with CASA and he has had enough - he has quit.

He has quit instructing and he will let his instructor rating lapse, and his Flight Examiner Rating with it. This alone is a major loss of experience and expertise to the GA sector.
He lays the blame squarely at CASA's feet for the industry's demise and he left me with his prediction:

"I reckon GA has about 18 months left before it collapses completely"

I have a Part 141 certificate hanging on the wall that cost me nothing. I have always written and updated my own manuals so nothing new there.
Plenty of work coming in, much more than in recent years.

I know people here only like to hear the doom and gloom but at the moment things are on the up and up.
I'm speaking from 25 years experience of running a GA business but expect a select few people on here who have never run a flying training organisation in their lives will tell me I don't know what I'm talking about!
As I have said ad nauseam, it is things like privatised airports, competition from RA-Aus, interference from amateur special interest groups and Fee Help rorts that have caused a lot more damage.
I've also worked in other industries where the regulatory and accreditation authorities are far more onerous than CASA, you just have to deal with it.
If your friend has quit instructing that is a shame but 142 was always going to be hard to get. One of the local airline cadet schools is operating perfectly well on a 141 certificate.
.

So what hourly rate do you charge yourself out at?
The cost of that Part 141 Certificate is your hourly rate by the number of hours that you spent writing and updating your manuals.
Nothing cost nothing.

Lead balloon, There is no change to my operations compared to when I held an AOC.

601, Being self employed, the rate I charge myself out at would only apply if it was an opportunity cost eg time I could have spent charging myself out as an instructor or examiner, which it wasn't; that is limited by CAO 48 anyway; it was part of the general administration that is involved with running any small business, manuals need to be audited and updated regularly anyway.

Dick, our definitions of a fortune probably differ considerably; I have worked very hard for many years to become a comfortable, debt free working director with a fleet of aircraft, great lifestyle and a happy home, that's all I need.

Clare Prop
I agree with you here:
...however I feel that the rest of your argument is "I'm OK so there's nothing wrong"

Wouldn't RA also be an opportunity for GA?

Disclaimer: I'm not running any kind of GA operation but my school runs GA and RAAus tracks in parallel and while I'm in GA, I often sneak a peek at the trip sheets of RA aircraft. Their fleet is quite uniform with identical aircraft registered in both GA and RA. My observation is: many (most likely a majority) of new students start their training in RA and transition to GA. The flight time on some of their aircraft over the last 12 months is simply through the roof. Obviously they're doing very, very well.

I believe that the key to their successful operation indeed lies in their dual GA/RA tracks and their fleet of cheaper [to operate and hire] two-seaters for early training.

I don't know what your specifics are but you seem to be doing well too. With electric training aircraft just on the horizon I'd say that the future isn't that bleak actually.

That may be true for the school you are training at ( I am guessing it is a biggish one at YMMB and YSBK) but we operate schools at 3 locations with RAAus schools competing at each.
People seem to pick their camp, and stay there.
On the RAAus thing... can anyone tell me why RAAus exists as a pseudo-regulatory body at all?
Can you show me another country that has followed this path?
With most LSAs retailing for $120-150k, what is the cost of capital to operate a fleet of A22s vs a fleet of (older) PA28s?
What is the annual cost of registering a RAAus aircraft vs a VH aircraft?
What is the pay rate in RAAus vs a VH flying school?

Its a shame that anybody has to defend their success and justify why they don't have a problem with getting on with the regulator. If HB's former student is correct and people like CP have to exit the industry then it will be a Pyrrhic victory for the doomsday prophets.

Forgive me for this question, I havn't had my finger on the pulse for some time now. Why would a Part 141 Flying School want to transition to Part 142

There are several things to add;
- Integrated CPL and PPL training;
- Multi-Crew Coordination;
- Type Rating training; and
- Contract Check & training.

...but the school in question was a large Integrated CPL type school and they went straight to Part 142 from their old AOC.

From the outside looking in, it appears each organisation has to start with a blank sheet of paper, and re-invent the wheel. Many thousands of dollars later......Why?

Horatio,
Give me a call some time, I will explain the history of RAOz and ALL the OTHER similar aviation bodies in AU, and the other countries, like the UK, who have something similar.
Tootle pip!!

Lookleft,
It may well be, but it is not the norm, except to those who have never suffered CASA in full on combat mode.
If things are so peachy, explain why we have had so many inquiries into CASA and its predecessors.
Tootle pip!!

I can only talk from my own experience. I guess my previous experience flying overseas where these systems were already in place and writing ISO manuals has helped
There are some new start-up schools here at Jandakot, something that hasn't happened for a long time.
Yet high profile people creating an investment risk with hysterical headlines saying we are all "rooned" or being sold out to the Chinese is NOT helpful or true.
Bolthead, there was no need to start from scratch, as long as manuals had been regularly updated it was really just a formatting exercise.

I am with Clare Prop here. I run a one man band Part 141 flying school. Business is as busy as I need, there is room for expansion and CASA have been highly supportive. I didn't write my operations manual, CASA did. It took me just 6 weeks and $2500 from nothing to operational.

What is sad in this industry is the same as what is sad in other industries I have been involved in, that is unnecessary and cumbersome, hard to read garbage legislation coupled with folk that think we need more of it. I bypass this problem by reading as little of the rule books as I can get away with. The other problem is do-gooders who think my safety is their problem.