Flying Hours Down Again
 

Here is a graph of the latest figures taken from the Department of Infrastructure & Regional Development’s database of Australian private and business flying hours on a five year moving average.

http://i950.photobucket.com/albums/a...ps0adab76a.png

Does anyone have any suggestions as to why this is down so much? Of course, part of the reason would be that people are forced to move from general aviation to recreational aviation because of costs and maybe these figures are not included.

It’s interesting – just about everything else relies on growth to succeed; it’s certainly not the same in private and business flying.

I look forward to your comments.

Abolition of fun
 

Dick, perhaps the reason in part is due to a number of the older generation quite simply throwing in the towel and buying RV's and hitting the road because Australia's incompetent government and regulatory body has made it so damn difficult to fly? Reams of paperwork, endless reports, updates, re-training, the endless changes to the rule set, the cost (as you alluded to) that includes dealing with and complying with all the burdensome rules have taken the complete and utter joy out of flying? Add to this the extra fun you have when Inspector Plod jumps out of the bushes at a rural airstrip and charges you with performing illegal maintenance of an aircraft because you wiped bugs of the windshield with a Kleenex.........you get my point mate. Regardless of whether one flies for a living or like the majority of us flies for the recreation, peace and contentment, it is just to much of a hassle.

I reckon I can sum that up in just one word Dick,

"PRIVATISATION".

Think - 'landing fees' for every T&G, plus of course, for the 'compulsory' full stop..?

Or maybe 'User Pays' would also get a big mention.

Think - all 'mandatory / current' publications, maps charts etc,
most of which used to be issued 'free'.
e.g.
Wanna BUY a 'holder' for ya overpriced AIP's Kid..??
Now I pay $11 every few months or so, for VTC VNC etc
Even WAC's WERE less than $2...

And no, I do not believe that my safety has been enhanced, and no, it does NOT cost me less.....

No cheers:}

Probably a lot are doing as i do when the time wasting survey turns up... to the Bin.

Which period shows the sharpest fall?

Who was the Chairman in that period? :suspect:

Of course, if you drew the graph with a full scale down to zero (rather than making it look like zero) the decline would appear much less dramatic. :=

Did Warren Truss announce 2 more board members for CASA? Whats the money on Dick having a tilt at it?

From a business perspective:

Since 1990 airline travel has become far more efficient and cost effective. I recall flying to Darwin in 1993 and it cost around $700. I could probably do that for half these days.

Why would I fly to Melbourne to Hobart Tasmania myself in my company's C182 at a cost of close to a couple of thousand retail when I could fly there on Jetstar or Tiger for $69? Since 1990 the price of Avgas has soared, aircraft hire rates are up and the list goes on.

As much as our time and the time of the CEO or company director is valuable, it's not that valuable when airline travel is so cheap. You can work on your laptop, use Skype and Facetime etc, email with little disruption to your productivity.

Short of travel to places that aren't serviced by an airline or companies with money to burn that believe that their time is worth the cost of running a Citation interstate, there are few reasons for such expense.



Failure to respond to the survey may cop you a significant penalty. I would be hesitant to continue with this approach to the survey.

here you go then. This is the sort of thing that makes people just give up as they don't know what is legal or illegal anymore.

Common sense is no guide today.

No way would you want me on that board. I would just concentrate on getting costs down and participation levels up.

I would no doubt be accused of " introducing affordable safety" again. What a disaster that would be. Un - affordable safety is clearly the way to go.

But you can rest easy. As Lauri Brereton said " never return to the scene of the crime"

My first question would be where did the the figures come from?

I haven't filled out any surveys for CASA on the amount of flying I've done and I'm sure that the guys flying RV's haven't. The only accessible GA flying hours that I can think of would be from flight plans & AsA billing data. This would not have any validity as a metric for GA. Does AVGAS sales back this up?

The second question is why use a 5-year moving average.

It makes zero sense to me. Typically you would do this to smooth out cyclical variations, which do not apply here. the main effect on this data will be to make the decline look less steep.

In fact, looking at the "Australian Infrastructure Statistics Yearbook" (which is I presume where the graph came from) you can see that there is steady growth in the number of piston engine fixed wing aircraft on register. This would seem to be in conflict with the flying hours graph.

I think I smell a Canberra based office bound bureaucrat that has assembled data that he / she doesn't understand,

Without all the finer details points as to why flying has dropped off there's really only one reason at the end of the day us working plebs understand/know, COST, pure & simple.
Flying privately or even for business purposes is a huge expense & when Co's are always trying to find ways to reduce overheads & increase profits or at least stay afloat what gets the chop real quick? The luxuries or convenient items such as Co funded getaways & the Co Limo, the flying machine (if that be the case).

Private flying comes under the banner of that ever decreasing 'disposable income', something Aussies once had a reasonable amount of once upon a time. I'd hate to imagine how much an Hr it would cost to hire a 4 seater for pleasure.


Wmk2

The survey is sent to aircraft owners, not all pilots. Therefore the results should be accurate in theory. I know if you don't full it out you get a reminder with a warning attached about the penalties of not responding.

In fact, if you look here Aviation Fuel Sales

AVGAS sales are about static. PLUS, JetA-1 burning aircraft are in the GA fleet in increasing numbers.

The flying hours graph just looks wrong.

And the graph is in conflict with the numbers here:

Its a bit scary that decisions might be being made in Canberra based on that graph.

When I learned to fly in the mid 80s it was so cheap. A 152 cost as little as $35/hour. From memory, WACs, EASA, The Visual Flight Guide (remember that?) were free or next to nothing. It has become so expensive to fly now that it is prohibitive to a demographic that could once enjoy it.

Flying has also become quite complex - no FSOs to give you a tip or check the plan. In trying to simplify it, there's more classes of airspace and more rules - I couldn't even tell you the VFR distances from cloud, the CTAF required calls or the Class D procedures for my local airport. These things have changed so much and so often that I'm deterred from driving down to Jandakot to hire an aircraft. Then there's the expense....

However I've just realized that you may have part answered your own question Dick -

Yep, enuf paperwork to fill the bin. Imagine if all car owners got a 'how much do ya drive' survey to fill in... :E










.

Fuel cost et al
 

Tune in to 126.7 the ulta light boys they are all out there fllying...
GA..................................................
And $2.20 per litre for avgas doesnt help.
heaps of $250,000 toys up for sale for $150,000.
Aging GA pilots failing medicals.
Flight check costs BFR and IFR.
Maintenance of aging aircraft.
And flying a house around if its a new aircraft.
To name a few reasons....
I can think of two Lance pilots here who are grounded and their planes are sold.
I have managed 100 per year since 1980 and did 28 this year...
Plane will run out of time before it runs out of engine hours...
Love to fly cant justify the cost to even fly to nearest VOR and chuck an approach and back costs about $200
To do three t/o and landings about $50
A BFR IFR about $800



2 cents

"Un - affordable safety is clearly the way to go."

Unfortunately Dick thats the mantra of our regulators.
I hear rumours that the "iron ring" has placed themselves outside any scrutiny by anyone, not even their own complaints person...very nice lady but she cannot involve herself in any scrutiny of the top five, not even if she receives a "Turkey slap" of blatant corruption.
The intent I fear is those guiding current policy are of the belief that by restricting the number of AOC's either by shutting them down by Hook but mostly by crook or pricing them out of business, will leave behind super AOC holders capable of absorbing the massively increased cost of regulatory bastardry, much like the super medical clinics promoted by the previous government, to cure deficiencies in health care.
What they fail to realise that aviation is by and large a service industry and other than the mainline airline part of it, not something essential, just something nice to have if needed. Drive the cost up and a point is reached where the user says, "bugger this I dont want to buy the bloody aircraft, just rent it for a few hours" and starts looking for alternatives, that is why hours flown are diminishing.
I can remember years ago flying you round the Southwest of Tasmania and seeing the enthusiasm and excitement in your eye's, you just dont see that anymore. The Kid hanging over the aerodrome fence is gone.
If you think about it, my childhood hero's. the Kingsford smith's etc would now be in jail or most certainly "Not fit and proper persons"
I have talked to european Backpackers outside my home in SE Asia who all expressed that they were disappointed with Australia because everything was so controlled, no excitement, no freedom, maybe thats why people are not getting involved in aviation today.

Well put Thorny
 

Oz is a misnomer..its actually Can't Country or Regulatastan. Bureaucrap rules OK? :mad:
VH GA is just about stuffed and I'm sure in FF they have an eye on the burgeoning Rec industry to "control" that into the ground as well.

Remember.."Safe Skies are Empty Skies" :{

A small town in a rural corner of my home state no longer has a Doctor to perform medicals and the last instructor capable of doing BFR's has retired.

This is a vibrant little community with 20+ aircraft and owners in the immediate are but with The nearest medical and or BFR are all but days away I dont know what the future looks like there.

PS. Im told the medicals stopped because the regulator has made it more trouble than its worth to hold the approval.