Melbourne stage 4 lockdown and GA
Join Date: Apr 2019
Location: Australia
Posts: 358
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
Mate, reality check. This disease has the capacity to seriously affect everyone. As soon as we get R>1, every person who gets it infects more than one other person.
Yesterday a Melbourne man in his 30s with no previous conditions died.
Even if you don't die, you can be crippled by the disease.
Check out this Scottish pilot - needs a lung transplant after losing 90% capacity to COVID-19. https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/...-on-ventilator
Yesterday a Melbourne man in his 30s with no previous conditions died.
Even if you don't die, you can be crippled by the disease.
Check out this Scottish pilot - needs a lung transplant after losing 90% capacity to COVID-19. https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/...-on-ventilator
Join Date: Apr 2008
Location: Australia
Posts: 490
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
The disease is a danger to everyone - not just old people.
Join Date: Apr 2008
Location: Australia
Posts: 490
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
I don't think we have reached the rate of infection that some places saw in the early days, where case numbers were doubling about every 3 days.
Join Date: Apr 2019
Location: Australia
Posts: 358
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
You can track the genetic differences of the virus (this is normal - not 'mutations'!) against worldwide geographical areas on this interactive site, just hit the 'play' button.
https://nextstrain.org/ncov/global
Be careful not to confuse the rate of infection with the level of contagiousness.
We may currently have some of the more contagious strains here, however our rate of infection is statistically low.
I was in a hospital all day today and the impact of the virus was huge, but yet I spotted several staff members getting around without face masks !
We may currently have some of the more contagious strains here, however our rate of infection is statistically low.
I was in a hospital all day today and the impact of the virus was huge, but yet I spotted several staff members getting around without face masks !
Stick shift. The Melbourne strain is the most infectious on the planet at the moment. As for its lethality I know not.
’I say again the lockdown is a global matter but Dan doesn’t want to scare you.
’I say again the lockdown is a global matter but Dan doesn’t want to scare you.
That you haven't leaves me wondering whether you've misinterpreted something you've heard or read, since nobody else seems to have heard of it.
Nonsense. I can’t give you the person lest they get into trouble. The Peter Doherty reference is as close as I will give.
Knowing shouldn’t change your behaviour anyway. Give it a few weeks and a paper will probably be published, then the media will say “what do you know?”.
Knowing shouldn’t change your behaviour anyway. Give it a few weeks and a paper will probably be published, then the media will say “what do you know?”.
The next thing he will be saying to us is “trust me.”
Sunfish, there are different strains / mutations of the virus in Melbourne.
We may in fact have the most infectious one in the world right here.... however we also have others, so therefore what you are saying is technically correct, but poorly worded.
Sunfish, there are different strains / mutations of the virus in Melbourne.
We may in fact have the most infectious one in the world right here.... however we also have others, so therefore what you are saying is technically correct, but poorly worded.
Join Date: Apr 2008
Location: Australia
Posts: 490
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
I know Peter Doherty is not the Peter Doherty Institute, but this is a quote from Peter Doherty yesterday:
"if a particular strain is more infectious, it would tend to take over in the general virus-scape. So far, nothing to worry about re virulence or immune escape."
As you say, it shouldn't change your behaviour anyway.
"if a particular strain is more infectious, it would tend to take over in the general virus-scape. So far, nothing to worry about re virulence or immune escape."
As you say, it shouldn't change your behaviour anyway.
Join Date: Apr 2019
Location: Australia
Posts: 358
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
https://www.scientificamerican.com/a...are-skeptical/
I agree that regardless of virulence, human behavior and hygienic practices can minimise the spread.
At least my username makes it clear that without references, you should take any extraordinary claims I make with a grain of salt.
Nonsense, this is a rumor network. I didn’t get my advice from the internet either. It comes from a first hand source as did my warnings posted around 6 march. You don’t have to believe me.
It does seem that Melbourne has a particularly infection version of this bug.
https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020...more-dangerous
https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020...more-dangerous
Join Date: Jun 2006
Location: Brisbane
Posts: 265
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
Sunfish:
Your mate must be keeping it pretty secret, because it seems nobody has told Victoria's Chief Health Officer...
From: ABC live news blog:
Professor Sutton said there was no evidence that Victoria's uptick in cases was a result of a new strain of coronavirus, but more down to behavioural fatigue.
"There is no suggestion we have a tougher virus in terms of its transmissibility or severity,' Professor Sutton said.
"We have a challenge that the world has of second waves, behavioural fatigue, the ability to penetrate the message, to sustain those behaved over such a difficult and long period of time.
"That's why Israel's second wave is four times bigger than its first, why Spain is looking at a second wave, almost as substantial as its first. That is why Iran never really moved through its wave, they couldn't get those changes to come into place.
"We are working hard to make sure we can ship those behaviours are make the structural differences that limit the interactions people have so we can get through it."
Latest advice is that the melbourne outbreak is caused by a mutation that makes its C19 strain the most infectious so far on the planet. There are thus national and global reasons for the lockdown....
From: ABC live news blog:
Professor Sutton said there was no evidence that Victoria's uptick in cases was a result of a new strain of coronavirus, but more down to behavioural fatigue.
"There is no suggestion we have a tougher virus in terms of its transmissibility or severity,' Professor Sutton said.
"We have a challenge that the world has of second waves, behavioural fatigue, the ability to penetrate the message, to sustain those behaved over such a difficult and long period of time.
"That's why Israel's second wave is four times bigger than its first, why Spain is looking at a second wave, almost as substantial as its first. That is why Iran never really moved through its wave, they couldn't get those changes to come into place.
"We are working hard to make sure we can ship those behaviours are make the structural differences that limit the interactions people have so we can get through it."
In his defence, Sunfish has shown himself to be the definitive expert on a wide range of subjects, epidemiology being the latest.
Join Date: Apr 2019
Location: Australia
Posts: 358
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
It does seem that Melbourne has a particularly infection version of this bug.
https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020...more-dangerous
https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020...more-dangerous
It was arguing that it has not become any more virulent...