Forecast Accuracy
April 2 2008 was the day the hangar (areospatiale ?) at Moorabbin was half destroyed by very strong winds. The TV weather reports in the 4 or 5 days preceeding warned of what was coming, so the BOM definitely gets it right sometimes.
You are listing capital cities and major regional centres as having forecasts with less than reliable accuracy.
Try flying in Australia's GABA, where the forecasters haven't got a clue and (I suspect) couldn't give a firetruck......and at the planning stages of the day (ie 5am) to have NO TAFs in regional areas. We have been known to wait for the duty forecaster's coffee to kick in sometime after 6am before we get the luxury of a TAF.
Has been known to happen that the TAF at 7am says CAVOK, while those at the airstrip are watching from behind closed hangar doors as a massive thunderstorm rattles overhead and lightning obliterates a tree 5km from the airport. Or we stagger off into CAVOK on a crystal clear morning, while the inbound RPT flight crew has a second cup of coffee in the capital city because the TAF says 50% FOG.
Any complains to BOM are met with the bland statement - Regrettably, forecasting is an imprecise science.
Try flying in Australia's GABA, where the forecasters haven't got a clue and (I suspect) couldn't give a firetruck......and at the planning stages of the day (ie 5am) to have NO TAFs in regional areas. We have been known to wait for the duty forecaster's coffee to kick in sometime after 6am before we get the luxury of a TAF.
Has been known to happen that the TAF at 7am says CAVOK, while those at the airstrip are watching from behind closed hangar doors as a massive thunderstorm rattles overhead and lightning obliterates a tree 5km from the airport. Or we stagger off into CAVOK on a crystal clear morning, while the inbound RPT flight crew has a second cup of coffee in the capital city because the TAF says 50% FOG.
Any complains to BOM are met with the bland statement - Regrettably, forecasting is an imprecise science.
Thread Starter
Imprecise to a degree. My point was the BOM on their website had a high probability of showers and TS for the day yet nothing on the TAF. As they have often stated a PROB 30 is just that a percentage chance of crap weather. So the BOM site says yep and the Aviation BOM section say nah. In the last few years something has definitely changed from within, and not for the better.
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Weather radars in Australia
Weather radars in USA
Weather radars in Europe
In America it's common for local TV stations and businesses to pay for their own weather radar as it also provides them with advertising.
Weather radars in USA
Weather radars in Europe
In America it's common for local TV stations and businesses to pay for their own weather radar as it also provides them with advertising.
Re...'The fact that any agency attempts to forecast weather is beyond me. It is just not possible!'
Many 'agencies' now associated with attempting to forecast weather YEARS in advance.....
And.... some even say it can be 'fixed'...….
No cheers
Many 'agencies' now associated with attempting to forecast weather YEARS in advance.....
And.... some even say it can be 'fixed'...….
No cheers
Has been known to happen that the TAF at 7am says CAVOK, while those at the airstrip are watching from behind closed hangar doors as a massive thunderstorm rattles overhead and lightning obliterates a tree 5km from the airport. Or we stagger off into CAVOK on a crystal clear morning, while the inbound RPT flight crew has a second cup of coffee in the capital city because the TAF says 50% FOG.
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And even when they DO have an employed observer on the ground (for example in the tower) they still don't reissue a completely inaccurate TAF!!!
When the METAR wind is 180 degrees different from the TAF surely its time to reissue the TAF!!!
PG
When the METAR wind is 180 degrees different from the TAF surely its time to reissue the TAF!!!
PG
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Some of you should review your responsibilities and obligations as pilots - AIP GEN 3.5-13 section 4.7 for a start.
If the BoM don't have someone on scene, how else are they going to know if the actual is different from their forecast unless someone reports it?
As pilots we're all colleagues; the information we provide can help someone else.
The ATC system processes AIREPs direct to the BoM aviation section.
If the BoM don't have someone on scene, how else are they going to know if the actual is different from their forecast unless someone reports it?
As pilots we're all colleagues; the information we provide can help someone else.
The ATC system processes AIREPs direct to the BoM aviation section.
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Some of you should review your responsibilities and obligations as pilots - AIP GEN 3.5-13 section 4.7 for a start.
If the BoM don't have someone on scene, how else are they going to know if the actual is different from their forecast unless someone reports it?
As pilots we're all colleagues; the information we provide can help someone else.
The ATC system processes AIREPs direct to the BoM aviation section.
If the BoM don't have someone on scene, how else are they going to know if the actual is different from their forecast unless someone reports it?
As pilots we're all colleagues; the information we provide can help someone else.
The ATC system processes AIREPs direct to the BoM aviation section.
......sounds wonderful but pilots live in the real world and rely on these so called BOM experts to provide WX we can plan on
not just what some pilot interpretation that could be random and very subjective! More cameras at airfields would help a lot!
