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Get out of aviation now – further important information

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Get out of aviation now – further important information

Old 25th Jan 2019, 10:01
  #41 (permalink)  
 
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Dick Smith, it would be wise not to take the Australian GA community for fools. Since late 2015 your scheme to collapse the industry has been well broadcast and yet only last year did you actually admit your personal intention was in fact not to get out. And now again, the questions around the details remain unanswered. So let me put it to you again:
  • Please put people's minds at ease with your so-far missing details of how people should take your advice and turn that into action, after all, you are clearly calling for action. What are the specific steps operators should take to get out of the industry? How long would you estimate it will take for us to completely destroy the industry and thereafter how long will it be before the fix-up phase is complete? Will it be quite difficult to attract finance in the planned fix-up phase as financial institutions realise the industry doesn't exist as its been totally destroyed? Do you envisage those who destroyed the industry will also need to seek finance to fix the industry and would you foresee any associated problems in that circumstance?
  • Given all current operators have financial liabilities meaning many will need to file for bankruptcy following this mass voluntary closure, please answer how bankrupt former business owners will qualify for finance as they attempt to return to the restarted industry under your proposal?
Additionally, when ever, anywhere in the world, has an industry collectively agreed to collapse itself via mass, mutual business closures and thereafter successfully restarted itself? Please provide examples and say dates, names of prominent organisers and the before and after results. In the event you find yourself unable to substantiate your position by way of answers to these specific questions, would it not be understandable if the GA community came to regard you as simply headline grabbing and attention seeking? Would you thereupon also admit your views smash confidence in the GA industry and cause enormous anxiety for operators and their staff?
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Old 25th Jan 2019, 20:31
  #42 (permalink)  
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Commercial GA operators ask me advice re how they can get CASA to see sense so that their businesses are not driven into bankruptcy.

For many years I gave advice on how I believed they needed to lobby to get CASA to accept that aviation was like everything else in life and had to operate on the principles of affordability to stay in business.

That plan has has clearly failed.

My advice to these people who are clearly struggling is to get out of the GA business before they lose everything.

In the past I suggested they try lobbying the minister to get the necessary change. Now I believe with the present people in power that is a waste of time.
Surely you have noticed that most of the population considers our political system has failed us.

Look at what has happened in the USA!

I confirm my advice. If you are a struggling GA business operator do everything you can to get out before you lose everything.

The people who control your future are bringing in even more expensive regulations and these will hasten your collapse.

Last edited by Dick Smith; 26th Jan 2019 at 04:29.
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Old 25th Jan 2019, 20:56
  #43 (permalink)  
 
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Nulli Secundus, all Dick is saying is that things must get worse before they can get better. I happen to agree with him. In such a situation a prudent businessman should try to avoid being part of the inevitable collateral damage such a process will inflict.
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Old 25th Jan 2019, 21:20
  #44 (permalink)  
 
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I thought it was obvious to see the new trend. One Nation, The Australian Motoring Enthusiast Party, Jacqui Lambie, Palmer United Party then on an international level we have Brexit and Trump.

So while Clive may not be the most liked person in Townsville he has heavily put his side of the story there with claims the government is stopping him from reopening with several hundred million of his money - will they buy it? I do not know.

We have had Clive, we still have Katter and they would be at home sitting at a table with Trump.

Aviation in Australia is certainly going down hill, not helped by CAsA or the abuse of casualised labour reducing pay and conditions and not paying taxes. There are "independent contractors" that have not paid tax for more 10 years (this also means they are keeping the GST).

If these independent contractors work for Labour Hire Firms then the LHF should be collecting the PAYE tax from the "contractors" (check ATO website also there should be no GST component).

On the state level the LHF should be paying payroll tax as applicable.

So with the combination of tax "errors" the "contractor" and LHF end up with more cash in their pockets, and that results in offering a lower cost to the companies requiring labour - that are happy to slash unit costs.
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Old 25th Jan 2019, 21:21
  #45 (permalink)  
 
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Dick Smith, you appear to struggle to substantiate the detail of your scheme. Please answer the questions. Is the industry really needing to hear your private discussions with struggling GA operators? No, the matter at hand is all about a mass exodus of operators in the GA sector. Your position was never conditional on whether the operator was struggling or not! Is it now the case that if you are not a struggling GA operator DO NOT LEAVE THE INDUSTRY! ?

I put it to you that subject to just a little scrutiny your views repeatedly alter. Your scheme's rolling conditionality is proportional to the scrutiny. Is it now time for the GA industry to see you as simply chasing a headline in an attempt to remain relevant based on fanciful broadcasts that even you cannot,as the idea promoter, provide any detail or maintain consistently?

Is it time to admit your views smash confidence in the GA industry and cause enormous anxiety for operators and their staff?
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Old 25th Jan 2019, 22:57
  #46 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Nulli Secundus
Dick Smith, you appear to struggle to substantiate the detail of your scheme.

I put it to you that subject to just a little scrutiny your views repeatedly alter. Your scheme's rolling conditionality is proportional to the scrutiny. Is it now time for the GA industry to see you as simply chasing a headline in an attempt to remain relevant based on fanciful broadcasts that even you cannot,as the idea promoter, provide any detail or maintain consistently?

Is it time to admit your views smash confidence in the GA industry and cause enormous anxiety for operators and their staff?
Nulli Secundus,
With the greatest of respect (which, for the comprehension impaired, I obviously don't mean) there is no "scheme", so the rest of your post is "tilting at windmills", about as productive as dealing with CASA and its unjustified "rules".
I assume you are not risking your own capital and resources in GA, otherwise your perspective would be somewhat different --- I know of NO small operator, and I personally know many, who would agree with you, many who "publicly" disagree with Dick privately agree with him.
About the only "GA" businesses that are doing well have government support of one form or another, particularly if they are "Charities".
Tootle pip!!

PS: Your handle will be particularly apt when there is no GA worth talking about to be second to>
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Old 25th Jan 2019, 23:50
  #47 (permalink)  
 
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I recall that forever the standard maxim is if you want to make a small fortune in aviation... you know the rest

That is not to say conditions and environment at the moment aren't especially hard but I would always advise that if you want to get into aviation (as a career or business) you do it because you want to do it, not to make a lot of money.

Can't say I know of many people who made themselves millionaires (at least sustainable millionaires) in aviation in Oz. Even during the mythical 'golden years' when aviation was (supposedly) encouraged by government there were very few who made it rich in aviation (there would be a plethora during those times and after who went belly up though losing everything).

As for Dick's comments I take it as hyperbole rather than some sinister plot. I take them to mean he sees things as grim at the moment and something needs to be done or the industry is in peril.

My advice to people would be the same as always - get into GA with your eyes open and because you want to do it because you have a passion but be aware you are taking a substantial financial risk (as always because many GA businesses have launched and failed over decades) and at the moment there is a lot of turmoil in the industry.

I cannot see a golden age of aviation emerging even if the regulator and government got sensible but it sure could be better. I would be very happy if a good GA business, run well and with passion would be a viable and sustainable choice and under such conditions it would be easy to maintain the passion. That is what I would like to see happen. You shouldn't expect to make your fortune though**.

my 2c

** If you just want to make money, skip aviation, my advice would be - become a property developer. Look at airports around the country and start telling local councils how much money they could make/save and how many local jobs would arise if somehow the local aerodrome became an industrial park or retail centre. But get in quick 'cause I think there a lot of people starting to see that opportunity
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Old 26th Jan 2019, 00:41
  #48 (permalink)  
 
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The vision thing:

Where are the float plane services linking every inlet, lake, river and reservoir to the capital cities? Even Vietnam has something like that.

Where are the turbine helicopter businesses in every town ferrying tourists, hunters and hikers to and from the wilderness?

Where are the grass strips in parks with bush camping facilities​​​​​​?

Where are the airport cafes and restaurants doing a thriving fly in / fly out business?

Where are all the LAMES schools and aircraft hire services at every regional town?

Where are the aircraft friendly towns, communities and estates?

Where are all the regional charter operators running scenic flights as well as delivering tourists to outback destinations?.

Where is the economic growth, investment and jobs such an industry could provide?

Stuck up the anus that is Canberra.
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Old 26th Jan 2019, 01:15
  #49 (permalink)  
 
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There have been many and still are many GA companies that have made a good dollars out of aviation for extended periods.

The ones that then went bust were generally for four main reasons.
1) A CAsA delegate interpenetrates the legislation differently to all other delegates before him/her, and forces expensive complicated change on the company.
2) The legislation/rules change.
3) The accountants start to "control" the company.
4) CAsA have decided your time is up.

If I needed a 5th it would be a fatal crash triggered an avalanche within the company.

I personally know a few that have made several millions in General Aviation some recently sold, others still in the game.

Some even have been grounded for extended periods at great cost, yet bounced back enormous costs incurred by compliance and wages during the suspended services. This was done in a few ways, one by selling off company assets and I know one sold of some personal prime real-estate to keep the doors open.

There are two guys I know that started in GA made enough to sell an airline or most of it - for a good buck, I would not think RL & MB started with a large fortune but more like $20 and a tool box & Skyport pilot wage driving an old orange lancer from memory.
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Old 26th Jan 2019, 03:43
  #50 (permalink)  
 
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From what I've seen over many years, GA operators close because of woeful management or lack of key personnel (woeful management) Words like "passion" and "dream" are a problem if they cloud sound business sense, keeping a close eye on overheads and margins and adapting accordingly, or in most cases just not keeping track of things at all or having an exit strategy or deliberately trading insolvent until the liquidator turns up.

I know of NO small operator, and I personally know many, who would agree with you

Well, one right here for a start.

One who has never contacted high profile strangers on the internet for business advice! One who values lifestyle over wealth.

2018 was a record breaking year for my GA company, 2019 looks to be even better, bankruptcy not an option as this business is debt free and owns all capital assets outright. I could walk away tomorrow, I chose not to, no third party will ever make that decision for me and certainly not a PPL holder on the internet. My super is largely in my aircraft so I do wish that people like DS would stop trying to devalue this industry, personnel and assets. You've made your pile and good on you now why not enjoy your retirement, show some respect to the professionals and let us get on with it?
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Old 26th Jan 2019, 04:13
  #51 (permalink)  
 
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Clare, I am led to believe your business operates at the whim of CASA - one adverse meeting with a CASA representative and your business is finished. CASA add a new component - regulatory risk, to the business equation as evidenced by the key finding of the Forsyth review - that industry doesn’t trust CASA.

To put that another way, your investment is not secure.
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Old 26th Jan 2019, 05:00
  #52 (permalink)  
 
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Generally aircraft as a Super fund is not a good move, because when a quick sale is required they are worth a fraction of what they are in good times. I have seen $180-$200K B58's being offered $50K.

They also cost money to maintain and park if not in use.

This with fixed calendar life items including engines and props and even a sudden AD (the C441 life caught a few out), make for a very high risk retirement portfolio.
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Old 26th Jan 2019, 06:09
  #53 (permalink)  
 
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Might surprise you guys but I've been in business successfully for decades without taking advice from strangers on the internet
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Old 26th Jan 2019, 06:58
  #54 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Sunfish
Clare, I am led to believe your business operates at the whim of CASA - one adverse meeting with a CASA representative and your business is finished. CASA add a new component - regulatory risk, to the business equation as evidenced by the key finding of the Forsyth review - that industry doesn’t trust CASA.
You seem to have quite an obsession with CASA, based on this and previous posts on this forum.

What was your experience with them i.e. what did they do to you?
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Old 26th Jan 2019, 07:07
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I recall a previous conversation with you Mr Prop and that was that you do not need to consider your time as a "award running cost" but at a discount. This seems to be to protect your Super investment being aircraft.

So you take less than the going rate for employment to fund depreciating assets.

Not saying that you are not successful but if you diversed you may be in a much better financial position both during working and in retirement - but the opposite can also apply.

But Mr Prop you seem very happy and that is all it is about at the end of the day, so yes indeed you are a success and well done.
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Old 26th Jan 2019, 07:12
  #56 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by CaptainMidnight
You seem to have quite an obsession with CASA, based on this and previous posts on this forum.

What was your experience with them i.e. what did they do to you?
He is not the Lone Ranger!

I was told to do stuff that is against the regulations and have it in emails - do you have the cash to fight it? their "Legal Team" backed the person as they always do.
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Old 26th Jan 2019, 08:32
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Clare:

Might surprise you guys but I've been in business successfully for decades without taking advice from strangers on the internet
Actually I do believe you.

2018 was a record breaking year for my GA company, 2019 looks to be even better, bankruptcy not an option as this business is debt free and owns all capital assets outright. I could walk away tomorrow, I chose not to, no third party will ever make that decision for me and certainly not a PPL holder on the internet. My super is largely in my aircraft so I do wish that people like DS would stop trying to devalue this industry, personnel and assets. You've made your pile and good on you now why not enjoy your retirement, show some respect to the professionals and let us get on with it?
You bet. 2019 looks awesome.

Take YMMB: those schools that make a comfortable profit are the ones that operate a fleet of aircraft that they happen to own. Those that thrive operate economical 2-seaters for ab-initio students and offer rates that are around $40-50/h cheaper than conventional 172s and PA28s while being more cost effective to operate, and they reinvest their earnings into, e.g. marketing and instructors who speak foreign languages such as Mandarin.

RA registered LSAs are netting between $60/h and $70/h when everything is paid for. Those who claim they can't make money with those figures should take a reality check. Moreover, flight instructors are mostly young, underpaid relative to other occupations requiring similar qualifications but highly passionate and out within 2 years when new recruits come in. As always, those that don't have the cash upfront end up paying a lot more for anything. The very same goes for students who can't afford to fly in their own aircraft.

With the Aussie ($) set for a weaker course on assumptions that RBA will cut rates in 2019, I'd bet my chips on an increase in foreign students coming to Australia for flight training.
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Old 26th Jan 2019, 10:37
  #58 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Bend alot
I recall a previous conversation with you Mr Prop and that was that you do not need to consider your time as a "award running cost" but at a discount. This seems to be to protect your Super investment being aircraft.

So you take less than the going rate for employment to fund depreciating assets.

Not saying that you are not successful but if you diversed you may be in a much better financial position both during working and in retirement - but the opposite can also apply.

But Mr Prop you seem very happy and that is all it is about at the end of the day, so yes indeed you are a success and well done.
Thank you, but it's Ms Prop! You do make a lot of assumptions!
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Old 26th Jan 2019, 10:52
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My apology's Ms Prop.

Yes I do make lots of assumptions, and that is a requirement of life with a factor greater in fields such as aviation.

On a personal note I never intend to offend you.
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Old 26th Jan 2019, 11:17
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Though it may appear Nulli has grabbed Dick by the balls (sorry) I think Nulli's taken his message too literally. Dick has his own style of raising public awareness which often involves a bit of controversy, which in this case is the GA end game. This is a common attention grabbing approach with many of our public figures, nothing more, nothing less. Taking it literally is very disingenuous when in this free country you have every right to completely ignore it and proceed as you were.

Sunny's post is brilliant, so much so that I would like to repeat it.
The vision thing:
Where are the float plane services linking every inlet, lake, river and reservoir to the capital cities? Even Vietnam has something like that.

Where are the turbine helicopter businesses in every town ferrying tourists, hunters and hikers to and from the wilderness?

Where are the grass strips in parks with bush camping facilities​​​​​​?

Where are the airport cafes and restaurants doing a thriving fly in / fly out business?

Where are all the LAMES schools and aircraft hire services at every regional town?

Where are the aircraft friendly towns, communities and estates?

Where are all the regional charter operators running scenic flights as well as delivering tourists to outback destinations?.

Where is the economic growth, investment and jobs such an industry could provide?

Stuck up the anus that is Canberra.
The first thing I thought of after reading it was New Zealand GA which doesn't have these issues.

I too also know of a couple of GA operators who have made a mint, only because when they started 30 years ago they purchased farms out in the sticks to fly home to after work. When GA deteriorated they were saved by the population explosion that made their farms suddenly worth many tens of millions of dollars.

There is an article in today's "The Age" about what qualifies you for automatic and free membership to Qantas's chairman's lounge - politicians and senior public servants are high on the list (https://www.smh.com.au/politics/fede...11-p4zqur.html).

GA? What is that.
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