Where are you Amelia?
A semi-translation of the original Japanese blog with clickable photo, and link to original book page.
The Lost Evidence Photo published 2 years before Amelia Earhart's disappearance - ?????3?
The Lost Evidence Photo published 2 years before Amelia Earhart's disappearance - ?????3?
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Actually the reverse was probably close to truth - she was an excellent operator of the aircraft as her prior numerous races, achievements and awards show. But when it came to meticulous flight planning she was probably falling short. People were urging her to better master the use of the radio and the use of the new directional antenna (brand new technology at the time) that could help them in the final minutes honing in on the island. She did neither, she could not even hear transmissions from the ship due to some mishap with frequency setting. She disregarded all these details that could potentially could have saved them. Noonan was in the back of the airplane, separated from her by a series of fuel tanks, the only communication between them, due to noise was through some paper notes he would send her through a stretched cable - clearly it was she who needed to operate the antenna, the radios, etc.
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Within days of the Earhart and Noonan disappearance, U.S. Navy seaplanes performed an aerial reconnaissance of Nikumaroro, or Gardner Island, and reported signs of recent human habitation. For reasons still unknown, no follow-up search of the island was done.
Prompted by porterhouse's comments on Amelia's radio operation I was interested to investigate solar activity for the time - this can have a significant impact on hf radio operation.
It turns out that July was the highest month on record in the Pacific for 1937, and that 1937 was the peak year for that particular cycle. This site and this site refer.
I'm not sure it's the right place to debate the possible effects of this here, it's quite a complex subject, but suffice it to say that it perhaps lends some possibility towards some reception reports that might otherwise be dismissed. Conversely it could also introduce difficulties for Amelia, particularly if she was unfamiliar with such things.
Quite probably this has been thought of before and done to death, but between this and the difficulty of correctly operating a fixed-frequency transmitter and a variable-frequency receiver together it seems to me a likely recipe for the ensuing mess - both in terms of whatever happened, and in any later rescue/recovery/research...
FP.
It turns out that July was the highest month on record in the Pacific for 1937, and that 1937 was the peak year for that particular cycle. This site and this site refer.
I'm not sure it's the right place to debate the possible effects of this here, it's quite a complex subject, but suffice it to say that it perhaps lends some possibility towards some reception reports that might otherwise be dismissed. Conversely it could also introduce difficulties for Amelia, particularly if she was unfamiliar with such things.
Quite probably this has been thought of before and done to death, but between this and the difficulty of correctly operating a fixed-frequency transmitter and a variable-frequency receiver together it seems to me a likely recipe for the ensuing mess - both in terms of whatever happened, and in any later rescue/recovery/research...
FP.
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I always wondered if they anticipated the presence of low deck of scattered clouds (around 1000 ft) above the water level. You can't really spot such tiny island when you are above them but if you go below the clouds the horizon is limited (the radius is about 60 km from that altitude, probably closer to 50 km if you want to spot something). But Noonan flew a lot in that area for Pan Am (if I am not mistaken) and he must have been aware of the typical weather patterns there. A guy with his navigation credentials could calculate the maximum error of his navigation procedure - this way he could have estimated probability of spotting or missing the island even before the trip. Probably someone well acquainted with navigation method at the time could perform such calculation today, it could be very educational and would shed light how much pure 'luck' was a factor there, I never saw it done. This of course assumes they they worked perfectly as a team, that Amelia never doubted her navigator which we know is a stretch.
Thread Starter
I am not being critical, there are many photos about of a very sorry looking Locheed less undercarriage and one engine almost completely detached. She probably had very little time in the aircraft when she left.
Last edited by flywatcher; 16th Jul 2017 at 05:28. Reason: add "loop"
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She probably had very little time in the aircraft when she left.
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You guys make excellent points, I do remember this mishap during her attempted takeoff from Honolulu, it is true that perhaps she wasn't that skilled in the Electra, I was referring to her rather excellent flight record in her prior years. Regarding her course keeping - therefore I was wondering to what extent Noonan's navigation could 'reset' errors that were building up during such long leg, like I said I found it strange that with all the attention her trip garnered, with a few people literally spending years of their life researching her fate, no one really (to my knowledge) presented a comprehensive, mathematical justification of what they attempted (I am a mathematician/physicist, hence my obsession 
. But I don't think there was any plan B and with the distance they planed to cover and with scarcity of land - it is hard to come up with any sensible plan B.
. But I don't think there was any plan B and with the distance they planed to cover and with scarcity of land - it is hard to come up with any sensible plan B.
Would presumably sane people head off into the vastness of the Pacific with no plan B...I doubt it.
Depending on the remaining calculated fuel state, Fred would have had a divert to ??? at a certain point.
...' If we cant see Howland within the next 15 mins, we must now head for ..'
Nukuamoro /Gardner (with a stiff quartering head/x wind) ?
..or turn back to the huge span of the Gilbert Is across the track ? ( with a ubeaut tail wind).
Maybe Amelia rejected that advice as with Africa, to keep looking.
Perhaps we'll never know.
How's Dave Billings going. Any news of the New Britain search? .
Depending on the remaining calculated fuel state, Fred would have had a divert to ??? at a certain point.
...' If we cant see Howland within the next 15 mins, we must now head for ..'
Nukuamoro /Gardner (with a stiff quartering head/x wind) ?
..or turn back to the huge span of the Gilbert Is across the track ? ( with a ubeaut tail wind).
Maybe Amelia rejected that advice as with Africa, to keep looking.
Perhaps we'll never know.
How's Dave Billings going. Any news of the New Britain search? .
Haven't been following the various analyses of the flight, but does anyone know if she used or knew of Chichester's method of the "deliberate error" -aim off to one side, intercept the sun line that runs thru the island, then you know which way to turn.
Noonan's radio of "running the line???"suggests she did. I don't think there was any mention of which way they turned. Maybe 180 out?
Noonan's radio of "running the line???"suggests she did. I don't think there was any mention of which way they turned. Maybe 180 out?
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They did not have plan B or if they did they clearly did not act upon it. The existing radio transmission is the proof - they kept flying in the vicinity of the Howland Island looking for it and did not fly anywhere else. The timeline of their transmissions and the content make it very clear. It also hard if not impossible to come up here with any sensible plan B considering their destination was at the close to maximum range of the aircraft. However I would not use words like sane/insane, they don't apply, this was not a "commercial transport flight" in a modern sense of the world, this was an attempt at something that hasn't been done before, I don't think Lindbergh had plan B either when he was flying solo across Atlantic. This was a stunt, you accept much higher risk when you perform a stunt. Their sensible plan B should have been use of the radio navigation (do some practice runs, learn limits of the technology, etc.) - but they both seemed not to show enough interest in it.
Last edited by olasek; 17th Jul 2017 at 21:45.
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Contingency Plan
There was a Contingency Plan to return to The Gilberts and find somewhere clear (beach, playing field) or ditch close to shore. AE had discussed this with Gene Vidal former head of Air Commerce.....
It appears to me that a bit of a read of my website may be in order. I discuss the Contingency Plan and how it was discovered.
We did go in JUne but had to pull out early due to a set of circumstances too many to discuss right now. I'll put another post up later today bringing things up to date..
In the meantime please read the website and ask lots of questions and think about "Best Lift/Drag speed".
David Billings
www.earhartsearchpng.com
It appears to me that a bit of a read of my website may be in order. I discuss the Contingency Plan and how it was discovered.
We did go in JUne but had to pull out early due to a set of circumstances too many to discuss right now. I'll put another post up later today bringing things up to date..
In the meantime please read the website and ask lots of questions and think about "Best Lift/Drag speed".
David Billings
www.earhartsearchpng.com
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Any Questions ?
I take it that persons interested have not had time to read and digest the website. I'll come back tomorrow.
David Billings
www.earhartsearchpng.com
David Billings
www.earhartsearchpng.com
David, your dedication is to be applauded.
Practically; I wonder if you or your team have considered the use of an aerial magnetic gradiometer? Given the comments on terrain/access issues perhaps this type of technology may be a viable and effective means of searching, particularly if there is a relatively defined area, such as there appears to be here
FP.
Practically; I wonder if you or your team have considered the use of an aerial magnetic gradiometer? Given the comments on terrain/access issues perhaps this type of technology may be a viable and effective means of searching, particularly if there is a relatively defined area, such as there appears to be here
FP.
And of course the elephant in the room; she's a she with all that entails
So hardly conspiracy, just all the makings of a perfect story - dashing heroine, adventurous daring, lost without trace...
FP.
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By the way, you are clearly at odds with another Amelia conspiracy theory peddled by so called project TIGHAR, these people at least came up with a more believable alternate destination - Nikumaroro (Gardner) Island, about 400 miles away.
Last edited by porterhouse; 20th Jul 2017 at 23:35.
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They did have a Plan B.
Plan A was to navigate traditionally by a combination of dead reckoning and Astro, with a mid-course correction augmented by sighting the pre-placed guardship Ontario.
Plan B was to DF to Howland/Itasca.
Plan C was to have the ship at Howland DF on them and give them a QDM.
There was no possibility of a diversion to alternate once they had reached where they thought Howland was.
Her last few transmissions make it abundantly clear that there was no possibility of a div to an alternate and quite certainly no attempt to fly to Saipan or Rabaul or Gardners Island.
The ugly truth is that Noonan cocked up his navigation. Contributary factors are likely to include hypoxia, dehydration and chronic fatigue.
The only realistic chance they had of diverting back towards the point of departure was if they had turned around after failing to find Ontario. Actually, her only chance of salvaging the project slipped away after she failed to identify the reasons why she was unable to get an RDF bearing on the Lae station during her test flight the day before departure.
Plan A was to navigate traditionally by a combination of dead reckoning and Astro, with a mid-course correction augmented by sighting the pre-placed guardship Ontario.
Plan B was to DF to Howland/Itasca.
Plan C was to have the ship at Howland DF on them and give them a QDM.
There was no possibility of a diversion to alternate once they had reached where they thought Howland was.
Her last few transmissions make it abundantly clear that there was no possibility of a div to an alternate and quite certainly no attempt to fly to Saipan or Rabaul or Gardners Island.
The ugly truth is that Noonan cocked up his navigation. Contributary factors are likely to include hypoxia, dehydration and chronic fatigue.
The only realistic chance they had of diverting back towards the point of departure was if they had turned around after failing to find Ontario. Actually, her only chance of salvaging the project slipped away after she failed to identify the reasons why she was unable to get an RDF bearing on the Lae station during her test flight the day before departure.
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For First Principal
Magnetic Gradiometer: That has been mentioned but at the moment we are looking at LIDAR which can give a "bare earth" picture of the terrain. We would be able to see bulldozer tracks and would be looking for that activity close to mounds or an obvious disturbance.
For Porterhouse
You would know about groundspeeds then.... Take a look at the groundspeeds that we can figure. The 686 Statute miles LAE to Choiseul done in 5:18 (if you take the time of the Radio call): G/S 129 Smph Av. Choiseul to Nukumanu PR 224 Sm in 1:75 gives G/S 128 Smph Av. and PR to Ontario 442 Sm in 3.6 hours gives G/S of 123 Smph Av. The overall average for the 1352 miles to the Ontario in 10.6 hours gives an average G/S of 127 Smph down 23 miles per hour from the normal cruise of 150 Smph. But the last sector was down 27 mph off the 150 normal. This shows an increasing headwind.
With 1252 more miles to run their ETA based on that information and with the prospect of no ASTRO over the sector you have to plan on an ETA of a further 10:12 added to 10:36 making the ETA 20:48 or 2048 GMT, Why call "Must be on you" at 1912 GMT ?
I read where Mr. "Kelly" Johnson told Earhart to "lean off" into an adverse headwind to conserve fuel.... if she was already leaned off the only way t conserve fuel is to ease the Throttles.
You base distance on HF Signal strength ??? How does that work ?
Fuel exhaustion at 10:00 am ? How do you come to that conclusion ? Lockheed documents say with 1100 USG and a specific fuel consumption from Report 487 the Electra could range for 4200 miles... IF it has already done 2556, where did the other 1700 go ? Are you an advocate of opening the throttles into an adverse headwind when "range flying" ?
Could Earhart have meant "my fuel is running low and shortly i will be eating into my reserves"
There are Facts within the East New Britain story... there was a twin-engined unpainted aircraft wreck seen which bore no military insignia and a map used by the Army unit that saw it bears identifiers for Earhart's Electra "600 H/P S3H1 C/N 1055" ...Why ?
That wreck has to be found even if to eliminate it from the Earhart search.
We can argue all day about a "Hypothesis" of the how's and the why's that ensued as to how it could get to be where it is. Earhart and Noonan never reached Howland and no-one on this globe can tell me exactly how far they did reach on the "Last Flight" but it seems to me based on the Groundspeeds that they were "short" of Howland and they did have a Contingency Plan to turn back for The Gilberts.
They would expect to fly for four hours if they did consider they had reached a lateral point to Howland, seeing land after 1:45 would raise numerous possibilities...
Regards,
David Billings
Magnetic Gradiometer: That has been mentioned but at the moment we are looking at LIDAR which can give a "bare earth" picture of the terrain. We would be able to see bulldozer tracks and would be looking for that activity close to mounds or an obvious disturbance.
For Porterhouse
You would know about groundspeeds then.... Take a look at the groundspeeds that we can figure. The 686 Statute miles LAE to Choiseul done in 5:18 (if you take the time of the Radio call): G/S 129 Smph Av. Choiseul to Nukumanu PR 224 Sm in 1:75 gives G/S 128 Smph Av. and PR to Ontario 442 Sm in 3.6 hours gives G/S of 123 Smph Av. The overall average for the 1352 miles to the Ontario in 10.6 hours gives an average G/S of 127 Smph down 23 miles per hour from the normal cruise of 150 Smph. But the last sector was down 27 mph off the 150 normal. This shows an increasing headwind.
With 1252 more miles to run their ETA based on that information and with the prospect of no ASTRO over the sector you have to plan on an ETA of a further 10:12 added to 10:36 making the ETA 20:48 or 2048 GMT, Why call "Must be on you" at 1912 GMT ?
I read where Mr. "Kelly" Johnson told Earhart to "lean off" into an adverse headwind to conserve fuel.... if she was already leaned off the only way t conserve fuel is to ease the Throttles.
You base distance on HF Signal strength ??? How does that work ?
Fuel exhaustion at 10:00 am ? How do you come to that conclusion ? Lockheed documents say with 1100 USG and a specific fuel consumption from Report 487 the Electra could range for 4200 miles... IF it has already done 2556, where did the other 1700 go ? Are you an advocate of opening the throttles into an adverse headwind when "range flying" ?
Could Earhart have meant "my fuel is running low and shortly i will be eating into my reserves"
There are Facts within the East New Britain story... there was a twin-engined unpainted aircraft wreck seen which bore no military insignia and a map used by the Army unit that saw it bears identifiers for Earhart's Electra "600 H/P S3H1 C/N 1055" ...Why ?
That wreck has to be found even if to eliminate it from the Earhart search.
We can argue all day about a "Hypothesis" of the how's and the why's that ensued as to how it could get to be where it is. Earhart and Noonan never reached Howland and no-one on this globe can tell me exactly how far they did reach on the "Last Flight" but it seems to me based on the Groundspeeds that they were "short" of Howland and they did have a Contingency Plan to turn back for The Gilberts.
They would expect to fly for four hours if they did consider they had reached a lateral point to Howland, seeing land after 1:45 would raise numerous possibilities...
Regards,
David Billings
Last edited by David Billings; 21st Jul 2017 at 00:25.