Job Prospects in Oceania in next 4-8 Years

[CanadianKiwi]

Going through the retirement numbers on AirlinePilotCentral, it seems at the US Legacy airlines the parabola of retirement will peak at around 2500-3500 per year around 2024. Already the US Regionals are scrambling with increased wages and signing bonuses.

What are the prospects for the same happening at Qantas/ANZ/Jetstar/Virgin in 4-8 Years? What are your opinions there possibly be a shortage in Aus/NZ? Or would it be minimized by returning Expats from the Middle East and Asia?

[XPT]

will be demand from other airlines the likes of Air North & other smaller players.


These guys will somehow try & lock you in, so you don't jump ship & jump at 1st chance to join the big boys.


Can't be that hard to lock you in to a minimum number of years.

[mattyj]

Yes you should definitely begin flight training now..there will never be a better time..your career is assured..in a short time, you will be earning in the top 1%

Don't delay, start today, a jet command awaits in only a few short years

[27/09]

mattyj

Forever the Joker.

[Goat Whisperer]

The Aus airlines don't have quite the same demographic peaks that the US does. But nor do we have the enormous military that feeds the US airline industry.

If you join a major team now, it will be a slow rise to a command, but they just might be the job between the Aus GA job and the Middle East/East Asian rapid command high paid job.

[Anthill]

QANTAS will resume recruitment shortly as they have an aging pilot body. Many retirements and promotion will be expected, but complexities could arise with people on exchange from Jetstar or on leave-of-absence returning. The salary that they offer is the best in the region and this will attract many candidates from other carries who will be happy to enter at Second Officer level.

Virgin will recruit to replace those junior pilots who leave for Qantas. This will create opportunities as a SO on the B777 and FO position on the ATR 72. The captains at virgin are mostly quite young and the expected time to command would be about 15 years. There are some 600+ FOs and SOs at Virginaustralia at maybe 30 command per year...do the math.

[wheels_down]

How many pilots actually Self Fund their whole training these days out of their own hard earned pocket? Then head north/Charter/Instruct/PNG/Asia to build up some hours before landing a prop gig and many moons later a jet gig?

I know of a 19yr old who just got into the REX Cadetship, going to cost his parents $130,000.

No sense of adventure anymore it seems. With adventure comes some great flying experiences in all sorts Weather/Cultures/Aircrafts, and usually better Pilots produced long term.

[Left 270]

Well me, and nearly everyone I know in aviation have done exactly that, but the appeal of the Cadetships probably has something to do with needing enough hours for an ATPL before moving onto something other than a piston single..

[neville_nobody]

No sense of adventure anymore it seems.

Maybe.

But if you ask some poor sod who just got his timing wrong after forking out alot of money and alot of years in GA, only to find that gets screwed by CASA on his ATPL license and is now near/over 30 and applying to major airlines finding that he is probably to old and may not see a command at an airline in Australia you have to ask is GA really worth the financial risk?

Fact is that alot of flying jobs don't pay the bills if you have to live in a major city centre and the GA route is becoming a bigger and bigger risk.

[framer]

Or, imagine you are on the recruitment team for narrow body f/o's and you have two 25 yr old candidates;
Candidate A did five years as a Rex f/o then upgraded and has two years command multi crew and a checking history that means something to you when you look at it ( because you are familiar with the airline and what it produces)and see that he or she has consistently scored very well in all checks and in addition has participated in annual HF/EP classes etc for seven years. There are no red flags and the motivation and attitude is appropriate.
Candidate B has more command time, much less multi crew time, has worked for seven different outfits on all the usual suspects (206, 210' 310, Chieftan) has produced check forms from Jo Bloggs that simply say " good standard" and has not been a part of any training matrix at all but has motivation and attitude that seems appropriate.
Who is the greatest training risk to your narrow body airline?
I know who I would choose. That is the reality.

[donkey punch]

I would pick
Option b, I think I would rather spend 2-12 hours with someone who is interesting and has a story to tell, rather than a sop regurgitating clone, because basically, after enough years, anyone can fly a plane.

[Massey058]

Or, imagine you are on the recruitment team for narrow body f/o's and you have two 25 yr old candidates;

I think that is a really good question but I think it comes down to the strength of that recruitment team. Candidate B may have formed a broad-based experience that will lead to more constructive questioning and analytical thinking in the decision-making process. Candidate A could be more victim to "this is the way we do things". Both of course could fall victim to the normalisation of deviance through their respective experiences.

Always picking A might not lead to the lowest risk in the same way picking B certainly would not.

[The Green Goblin]

I'd pick option A if you had a substandard training and checking system.

I'd pick option B if you had a great training and checking system in place.

Whilst candidate A may initially fare better, after a couple of years in the cyclic you couldn't tell the difference between the two. Candidate B would just have more tricks in his Nav bag for a rainy day.

Most senior captains would have more in common with candidate B.

[log0008]

I know of a 19yr old who just got into the REX Cadetship, going to cost his parents $130,000.

I also know someone who just completed it and is now line trained on the SAAB. Although yes the course is around that (his was a little under $115,000), i don't see why your parents need to pay for it. Only the first $25,000 is a deposit working during school and taking a GAP year and saving can achieve this, the rest is paid off once employed (over the next 7 years). You also pay off a little less if you say the full 7 years. Yes that means your paying around $10,000 back per year but i bet you will be earning more than with in GA these days, thats if you find a job.

I feel there is people who the cadetship works for and those who it does not, I see myself as one of these people, largely because i live in the country in a town with no flight school which means to start training i would have to move, and thats what i see the $25,000 as either the cost of moving (rent/food/etc) or the cost living in Wagga for a year with REX.

Once thats done you effectively have loan like you do with FEE-HELP, of similar amount to what you do with REX if you do it at a flight school, the best I have seen from PPL to Commerical is $66,000 and then you still end up working in GA jobs.

Thats how I see them as equal - the only reason I am moving towards apply for REX at the end of the year is the Guarantee of employment - we all know the ups and downs of this industry.

[Homesick-Angel]

Many Flight Attendants earn more than most regional airline pilots in Australia

Thats because what they do is waaaaaay harder. Have any of you actually had to deal with the general public!

There's gonna be a ton of movement in the next 12-18 months barring any major catastrophe (which is always a chance these days). Some GA companies are on the front foot already looking for replacements for the expected movement. Others are going to get royally screwed by not thinking ahead.

Im guessing a similar but slightly muted 2008 all over again?

Waddya's reckon?

[framer]

I would pick
Option b, I think I would rather spend 2-12 hours with someone who is interesting and has a story to tell, rather than a sop regurgitating clone, because basically, after enough years, anyone can fly a plane.

Yeah I like sharing GA stories with new f/o's in the cruise when I'm getting to know them but that isn't what someone who wants the job cares about. They need to be thinking about who is going to give them that job.....the recruitment team. About one in twenty never check to line, of those most don't make it to line training. That is a real pain for both the candidate who has given up a paid job and spent six weeks doing a type rating with all the cost that entails, ( being away from family, often paying for their own accomodation) and the company who often foots the bill for some of it as well. So the people who will ultimately decide if you fly a jet or remain in a lower salary band run a risk assessment on the likelihood of you getting through the training. With the GA guy there is less 'valid data' for them to bank on as the check reports are often sparse and by people they don't know. The cadet has an advantage here as they appear 'low risk' and normally are if they have sailed through all their checks with no issues.

In the airline world, you'll be just fine if you have a good attitude and meet the standard.

I would add ' and the mental capacity to transition from your last aircraft type to your next aircraft type.' Some don't, and that's why you get the odd failure during the first couple of months, it's not because they don't put in the work or take it seriously.

I'd pick option A if you had a substandard training and checking system.

I agree, and that appears to be the case with all but one of our Australasian jet operators. You get x number of sims then a check, fail the check and you're on a chop ride. That is what our young guys and girls are dealing with.
I am not saying that option A is better, just that it makes you an easier choice for a recruitment team because they don't feel like they are rolling the dice quite as much.

[radiodude]

Besides the GFC what happened in 2008?

[Homesick-Angel]

Last major hiring boom..
And yep. Probably came to a halt in 2008.

[mattyj]

don't be silly, you'd pick the candidate who scored highest in the mental reasoning and numerical tests, who fits the psychological profile and payed for his pilot aptitude tests proving he won't be a difficult employee

[Shagpile]

Originally Posted by sid-star

...no real numbers coming out of the military..

There will be an exodus.