Plane down off Pt Lonsdale

[fujii]

Flouting, not flaunting.

[ACMS]

Well I can say that over on the east side of the bay at lunchtime it wasn't too bad on Beach road BUT looking WSW toward the Bellarine Penninsula and toward PPH it was very ominous, dark low cloud base ( embedded Cu/Cb perhaps? ) with mod to heavy showers beneath all along the western horizon over the bay.

I actually commented to my wife while driving into town that west looked crap and I hope that it didn't head toward Melbourne and effect the T20 Intl cricket on at the G later that evening.

So sad.

[Compylot]

Homesick-angel posts some wise words..


Sad but true

[Homesick-Angel]

Go here

https://www.atsb.gov.au/media/5474110/ar2014084_final.pdf#page92

Page 87 figure 23.

If it doesn't work look for a doc titled 'aviation occurrence statistics'.

7700. My post was in part a rant, but here are the statistics I wrote of.

[Dora-9]

Well done Homesick Angel - someone had to say those things...

[rjtjrt]

There seems to be a suggestion that a number of aircraft went MB to King Island, as a loose group travel.
I wonder if any of them returned to MB instead of continuing to King Island?

[Sunfish]

Squawk7700, I'm sorry if I offended you by asking if the aircraft and pilot was IFR capable on the day or not.

I refer to "The name is Porter's" post:

Sqwark, I departed Moorabbin IFR about 1240pm that day, the zone was IFR (one in - one out). When I was taxiing I heard a VFR taxy & the tower advising SVFR would be required, I didn't hear that full conversation as I was busy doing stuff. I was in IMC pretty much all the way so can't tell you what the base was over the strait.

I got absolutely drenched on the tarmac at King, low cloud, lots of rain & worsening vis. I heard one aircraft land, I didn't hear anything IFR on the way down so wondered how in blazes he got in? Like I said, dunno what the base was but I was surprised. There were two aircraft already there, one chap came over and asked if I'd heard this fellow on the radio. In retrospect I can't imagine how these 2 plane loads of people felt when they eventually heard.

I don't know what made whoever made this (extremely poor) decision to depart Moorabbin. The forecasts weren't good, they were crap in most parts of tassie. I'd suggest to you that Homesick is extremely angry that, yet again, innocent people who trust people at the controls implicitly to make good decisions paid the ultimate price.

I will ask another question: Two made it in to King Island (presumably VFR ex YMMB). What do you think of any VFR pilot who ventured out that day? Was the King Island Festival fly away weekend that important?

If that is the case, doesn't that raise the possibility that "groupthink" is involved?

I wouldn't be flying anywhere VFR around most of Victoria today either

[allthecoolnamesarego]

Squawky,

Nothing wrong with HA's advice. If ten years experience doesn't give you some insights and the experience to offer advice, not sure what does. I was instructing with 10 years experince, and felt I was able to offer advice like that of HA.

It appears that you either knew these pilots, or knew of them. I offer my condolences, however, that doesn't mean that the advice HA gives, shouldn't be offered. 4 people are dead and MANY more will suffer pain as a result of their death, family and loved ones will live with their loss forever. Any advice to help reduce the chance of someone else dying should be offered, take it or leave it.

I understand that you might think HA is stating that his/her words of advice are each causal factors in this crash. The investigation will bare that out. However, each and every crash shoild give us pause to think about possible factors, and provide an opportunity to use those as a learning point.

Safe flying.

[Squawk7700]

Atcnag, it's not so much what was written about them, it was the fact that HA wasn't there, didn't see the weather, didn't speak to any of the pilots, heard a second hand story from someone who didn't even go flying that day and then decided to become judge, jury and executioner with one foul post. I have no issue with anyone saying that it was caused by poor decision making, but second or third hand rumors followed by an unsubstantiated dig at dangerous PPL pilots as if a CPL, instructor or IFR pilot have never crashed!! I would have said the same thing in reply regardless of having known the pilots on board.

Sunfish, I won't bother to answer any of your questions as you've never answered mine nor bothered to ever respond to private messages of assistance to your enquiries regarding the built of your VFR Zenith aircraft through the SAAA from myself and other members of the Pprune and SAAA community. Your decision not to fly today anywhere in Victoria is yours alone as plenty of others are out there enjoying themselves in the air today.

[P51D]

This type accident involving weather (apparently) keeps happening with tragic outcomes. I live on the other side of the country but rather than speculate on what happened I'll reserve my view until the investigation is complete. What offends me is the language of Homesick Angel and I can fully understand Squawks reaction to this highly experienced individual. I'm a PPL, learnt to fly in PNG in 1973, am still flying, own an aircraft and have the attitude that I'm always still learning. HA's talk down attitude to PPL's had me shaking my head - wow, 10 years experience!!! Boy oh boy, let's all seek you out as the guru of all things aviation. Multiple thousands of hours pilots, who were the big boys, have also lost their lives in ga aircraft. None of us are immune, and HA that's coming from a 42 year active private pilot who doesn't fly every week but considers himself safe when he does so. It's very sad that these threads drift into ego's on display, and in HA's case "there but for the grace of God". I feel very sorry for the family's and friends of those on board.

[mcgrath50]

dangerous PPL pilots as if a CPL, instructor or IFR pilot have never crashed!

As the statistics show, as a group PPL pilots ARE more dangerous. I would happily say I'm sure I could have learnt things from these fine gentleman. What I think PPLs need to remember is that often (but not always) they fly for a few hours once a week (at most) and the CPL who is taking off before them does this 5 days a week. Does that mean a PPL is a worse pilot than a CPL? No. Does that mean a CPL knows more than a PPL? Often no. Does that mean the CPL won't crash? No. Does that mean the CPL has a more currency and all that entails? Almost certainly.

I've walked past that aircraft at MB many times. If the gents are half as lovely as the aircraft was it is a massive loss to aviation. RIP.

[BEACH KING]

Oh dear... PPrune at it's best.

[junior.VH-LFA]

I thought it was a good post HA.

I'm a complete junior at this whole flying thing compared to a lot of you but I think that advice could go to anyone, not just PPL's. Fly to your limitations, your experience and your currency. Be self critical when making that decision and ask if someone else was asking you if they should go, what would you say? Have a plan for when it all does turn to **** so you can get on the ground again. There's always tomorrow to go and have another crack at it.

My condolences to all involved.

[megan]

How does a VFR aircraft take off from a controlled aerodrome in conditions that are unsuitable for VFR (which is what you are saying)?

Have had the experience of being given a special VFR clearance from a capital city airport in the past. Took off, said oh @*&%, hasty low, low level turn to downwind and prompt landing.

It's unfortunate that every pilot gains a licence with rare exposure to lousy weather, and the first time he is confronted with it is as pilot in command. It would be an extremely rare pilot who has not pushed his/her luck, and got back on the ground blessing his/her maker. Unfortunately, for some, the dice rolls the wrong number.

Frank Tallman, famous movie stunt pilot, lost his life because of weather. On Saturday 15 April 1978, Tallman was making a routine ferry flight in a twin-engine Piper Aztec from Santa Monica Airport, California, to Phoenix, Arizona under visual flight rules when he continued the flight into deteriorating weather, a lowering ceiling and rain. He struck the side of Santiago Peak in the Santa Ana Mountains near Trabuco Canyon at cruise altitude.

All of you are human, I hope, and you too can be felled by human frailty, irrespective of time logged.

You might peruse this old discussion.

http://www.pprune.org/pacific-genera...oute-ycab.html

There but for the grace of God.

[The name is Porter]

How does a VFR aircraft take off from a controlled aerodrome in conditions that are unsuitable for VFR (which is what you are saying)?

Because this is what you, the industry wanted. When Ops Control closed aerodromes there were complaints from pilots saying they were in the best position to know, and frankly, it should be pilots making those decisions. You don't need to get airborne to make the decision. (not criticising you Megan, cos I've done that myself!). Pilots should not be expecting ATC's to make this decision for you.

There's obviously a very wide experience gradient amongst Private Pilots, it may have been within someone's skill set to depart special VFR on that day.

Do any of you have a quiet word in another pilots ear when they are just about to hop in a plane VFR on a day like Friday?

[Captain Dart]

It doesn't just happen to private pilots. In 1966, astronauts Elliot See and Charlie Bassett, prime crew of Gemini 9, lost their lives circling in deteriorating visibility off an instrument approach.

Their T-38 jet hit the very building that they had come to visit.

[Flying Binghi]

Amazing, here's me thinking any pilot would want all available facts before judging one of their fellow pilots on circumstantial evidence..

What have i learnt from this thread..... bugger all, except apparently three pilots are now to blame because three pilots in an aircraft make it more dangerous. Next time I'm paxing on the Qantas cattle truck and in business sitting next to Qantas Capt. XYZ, I think I'll start to panic..


Here's some possibilities an accident investigator might find...

- Due to the aircraft flying in cold rain all vents were closed and heater on. Due to cracked exorst aircraft occupants gassed. (All my aircraft have the exorst heaters disconected after this happened to me.)

- Pilot in command had health issues and right hand seat occupied by the non-pilot and the aircraft being at low level did not give sufficiant time to...

- Accidental Drone strike. As we all know, its due, and many of the beachs around our citys are drone central now...

- Bird strike.

- In flight cockpit smoke. (I've had two occurances now- great for vis)

- New electronic avionics recently fitted.
Possibility #1: Pilot competent at the panel though rain water seeping in shorted out avionics...... ('steam gauges' can handle a bit of water. And I know this because...)
#2: Pilot competent at the old six pack suddenly finds the whole new set-up and lay-out of the new wiz bang panel disorientating and looks for answers in the wrong part of panel... (I survived my experience)

-And I'm sure there's more possibilities...

Before I pass judgment on a fellow aviator, or three, I want to see the accident investigators report. Anything else is just muppets flapping the wool..






.

[megan]

not criticising you Megan, cos I've done that myself!

I had a fair bit of time under the belt at the time Porter, but it taught me how difficult it is to judge the weather while standing on the ramp on some occasions. At the time I figured the man in his lofty tower would have a better appreciation than I for what was to be a local ten minute flight. On the other hand, because we were long time operators at the airport perhaps he extended a little licence to our local knowledge. The place was notorious for bad weather it must be said. TAFs (and area forecasts) are nothing but horoscopes with numbers as well.

[QDMQDMQDM]

Well, this is quite the angry, abusive, patronising diatribe from Homesick Angel, but unfortunately it completely misses the point. If we are looking at another classic 'VFR into IMC' accident, as I admit it does look like, then the point which is being missed is to ask why, once again, sensible people have made apparently inexplicable decisions.

These were experienced private pilots who had been flying various aircraft, including quite complex ones, for many years and had successfully managed to avoid killing themselves thus far, a success rate which it seems unreasonable to attribute purely to chance. If you'd asked these pilots the day before the accident "Do you think you're the kind of pilot who might die in a VFR into IMC accident?" they would probably have laughed you out of the room and told you not to be so stupid. An attempt in due course to try and dissect why these pilots apparently made a poor decision is more likely to help prevent this in future than a diffuse rant at private pilots that "You don't know ****".

As a private pilot with a thousand hours of stick and rudder time in my Super Cub, comprising over 5,000 landings into the shortest and most restricted of locations and with not a scratch put on the machine in that time, I could justifiably rant that airline pilots who stall their aircraft into the ocean because they are incapable of hand flying it or who allow it to get 30 knots (30 frigging knots!) too slow on the approach also "don't know ****". I might even be justified, but it doesn't help anyone.

More insight, less ego, less anger, less abuse probably make for a better approach to flight safety. Wouldn't you agree, Homesick Angel?

Every rumour I was told is true.

This is pretty much the biggest waste of life I've seen in 10 years in the game because of how easy this one was to avoid.

WTF they thought they were doing is beyond me. I know of 15 thousand hour pilots who were sitting on the ground because it was unsuitable for VFR and only a handful of IFR were getting out and doing what they needed.

Here's a few messages out for the PPL /private flying community out there.

1. You are a PPL. Even if you've been flying for 20 years it doesn't mean **** unless you are current and fly weekly at least in a range of conditions.

2. You are not beyond the laws and consequences of flaunting them or pushing them.

3. Statistics show you are the most unsafe people in the sky. That should be a trigger for you to take great care.

4. Ask , ask and then ask again. Even the most junior instructor who has worked for a year or two has more currency and understanding of the local area and wx than you. You don't know ****. See point 3 for proof. Go look at the stats. See how many instructors die vs you guys. They work under safety frameworks you have no idea of.

5. If you wanna play with the big boys in the soup then take it seriously and get an IFR rating, keep it current and tread with absolute care. If it runs out, YOU ARE NOT suitable for IMC.

6. People will take more risks in groups than alone. I wonder if any single pilot on board would have gone alone, and gone if others hadn't tried. The worst of it had appeared to pass , but a simple call would have shown them this was a false dawn ... See next point.

7. RING THE MET PEOPLE . There is a number at the end of the ARFOR. They are Yoda like and have far more current modelling than all but the latest TAFS.

8. If you see people doing dumb sh1t report them or if they are close pull them aside quietly and have a word. They may not like it but stiff.

Take care.

[fujii]

I suppose flying with an exorst fitted could be dangerous. Mine has an approved exhaust.