7 Year Cycle

[Bluemeaway]

Hello,


I've recently heard about there being some kind of 7 year trend in which the airlines go crazy and pull as much as they can out of GA.


Can anyone tell me more about this phenomenon?

Is this what is going on in NZ at present and when is Aus due for its next drive?

Cheers

[Howard Hughes]

Don't hold your breath!

[ARPs]

It's more like a 70 year cycle in NZ

[Capt Fathom]

There is no cycle.... it's a dead end!

[Gligg]

It's called the spin cycle, where one emerges with their pockets turned inside out.

[Wizofoz]

I got a full time, IFR Twin job in 1987 with around 1200hrs- two years later major airline interviews (and yes, it was BEFORE "the war") with about 2500.

This was at the tail end of the mid-eighties boom.

That followed the prolonged 70's slump, when neither "major" hired for almost ten years.

Five years later, the economy was once again on it's butt, and guys with thousands of hours where stuck in the bush for years.

It all ramped up again in the late nineties and 2000/01- only to have the "twin towers" of 9/11 and 9/14(Ansett) destroy it once again.

2006/7 ONCE AGAIN saw a window- by 2008 it was over, thanks to our friends at Lehams and their ilk.

Yes, there have been periods of, if not shortage, at least more competitive hiring conditions for Pilots.

Are we headed for another? Who knows, but it IS cyclical to some extent.

[Artie Fufkin]

It's the 7 year economic cycle that you've been told about. Aviation is said to be a good barometer of the world economy so airlines' fortunes, and thus recruitment policy, would follow a 7 year cycle.

The 2001 to 2008 cycle is a good example. Both autumn 2001 and autumn 2008 were bad times to be seeking work here in the UK, whereas 2004 to 2007 were excellent.

[KRUSTY 34]

Succinct and accurate Wiz'.

That's how I remember it anyway.