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Plane missing en route YCAB?

Old 2nd Oct 2012, 07:36
  #41 (permalink)  
 
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Flightaware shows two parallel semi circular tracks by VH-PPQ (Dornier search aircraft) over some serious tiger country. Looks like it returned to Maroochydore just before 5 PM.

Last edited by bentleg; 2nd Oct 2012 at 07:38.
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Old 2nd Oct 2012, 10:11
  #42 (permalink)  
 
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Does anyone know if Ray V and his wife were on board?

Disregard! Just read the updated Courier Mail.

DB

Last edited by Dangly Bits; 2nd Oct 2012 at 10:16.
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Old 2nd Oct 2012, 11:35
  #43 (permalink)  

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The aircraft is missing and has not been found.

No one knows what occurred or whether the pilot and passengers survived.

To all those with fabulous crystal balls, please refrain from idle, ludicrous, wild speculation until the full and true facts are known.

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Old 2nd Oct 2012, 11:38
  #44 (permalink)  
 
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Angry

tail wheel, thanks for the intervention. (and censorship)

This one is too close to home.
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Old 2nd Oct 2012, 11:59
  #45 (permalink)  
 
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You don't need a crystal ball to see the obvious.

The truth can be painful!

Dr
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Old 2nd Oct 2012, 12:36
  #46 (permalink)  
 
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Bentleg, after the Dornier departed, OMM maintained overhead comms for the search helos until just after dark..........still no sign.
Thanks to the EMS and all the helo crews for their efforts. It must have been a very long day, and even longer with the disappointment of no positive outcome despite their concerted efforts.
It's obvious the SAR organisers are doing everything they possibly can.
Lets hope for some success tomorrow.
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Old 2nd Oct 2012, 12:37
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If he was in cloud and struggling you'd expect he would have maintained his heading at least
No way. If he was IMC (cloud or reduced visibility with no visible horizon), then within seconds his heading would be all over the place and soon after he would be in serious trouble. If the aircraft did not have an AH and only a Turn and bank Indicator, then even the most experienced instrument rated pilot wouldn't last long in cloud unless he was in current practice at limited panel I/F.

Very few instrument rated pilots operating light general aviation twins ever bother to hop into a synthetic trainer and practice instrument approaches with the AH inoperative. Many cannot be bothered to practice limited panel manoeuvers in a ground trainer, either because of the perceived cost of hiring the machine or most probably because they know they will make a fool of themselves and crash. Head in the sand syndrome.
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Old 2nd Oct 2012, 20:09
  #48 (permalink)  
 
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This one's too close to home
Actually, ever accident is "too close to home" for someone, and they may be reading any thread!
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Old 2nd Oct 2012, 21:21
  #49 (permalink)  
 
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No crystal ball here.. but, To Me.. it would seem that fuel is at the heart of it, as it is in many similar situations like Norfolk Island (and Bellona Island in '78 when I was talking to the ex-New Guinea pilot as he was turning back), so the questions asked by Renegade are what any pilot would want to know. If it is o.k. for morno, xxx and Jaba to comment, then it is equally o.k. for anyone. Do we hope to learn anything from this, or is it 'to close to home' for some? Loved the look of that Red Plane and snapped it a few times, but when I saw where the pilot sat with very little fuselage in front of him for a horizon/attitude reference in marginal vfr conditions, and the basic '30's layout of the few instruments, thought at the time that it was a fine-weather only fun plane.
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Old 2nd Oct 2012, 22:23
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Pilots in that era could fly with a limited panel. Its modern pilots who have a problem.
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Old 2nd Oct 2012, 23:33
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The aircraft is missing and has not been found.
No one knows what occurred or whether the pilot and passengers survived.
To all those with fabulous crystal balls, please refrain from idle, ludicrous, wild speculation until the full and true facts are known.
None of the above will change the ultimate outcome. However, if discussion of the possible senario(s) that have resulted in the current circumstance makes one pilot rethink their risk assessment, then some good will have come out of this tragedy.

Dr
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Old 2nd Oct 2012, 23:36
  #52 (permalink)  
 
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Having spent a fair bit of time flying VFR in southern Qld, I feel a pit in the stomach for the pilot and passengers. Do enough VFR and pilots soon work out where they can squeeze through during periods of cruddy weather. That area is just a huge trap in bad weather, particularly with a SE flow. The clouds stick to the hills and have ragged bases and there is just no safe way through the hills. VFR flights to the south have to be planned coastal or inland via Kingaroy and if the weather is really bad, then Kingaroy is out of action too and the pilot on the inland leg has to come south of Toowoomba before turning east. On the coastal side, the low cloud in combination with the higher ground around Gympie and Nambour really pushes the VFR pilot right to the coast. There are simply no shortcuts. Must be extremely difficult for the searchers. Hopefully the aircraft occupants are okay and just waiting to be found.
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Old 3rd Oct 2012, 01:09
  #53 (permalink)  
 
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In Feb 1962 Brian Chadwick flying his DH Dragonfly with 5 pax. dissappeared while flying from Christchurch to Milford Sound. Unfortunatly No Sightings where ever of that Aircraft to this Day.........Very Sad. Hope this is not the same outcome..
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Old 3rd Oct 2012, 02:45
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I believe Wally Mk2 is right on the nail. With police and search authorities now in possession of information from credible eyewitnesses on Bella Creek Rd - who sighted the Dragon circling low over a valley just N of Lake Borumba, then ascending into heavy cloud, just before the reported disappearance time - the scenario is screaming to me, of a CFIT into steeply rising terrain on a ridge surrounding that valley.
No doubt the police and search team leaders have taken this scenario on board, and have adjusted search tactics accordingly.

I'll hazard a guess at this scenario. Des realised he was flying into dangerous IMC and needed to put down quickly. He sighted the cleared valley floor through a break in the murk, and descended to check it out for landing potential. A couple of circles showed nothing suitable for a forced landing.

So, in increasing cloud and perhaps even a rapidly-lowering ceiling, he set off the EPIRB, and aimed at what he thought was the valley outlet, whilst firewalling the throttles for maximum RoC, knowing full well he needed height, and lots of it.
However, flying blind, he picked the direction of one of the sizeable ridgelines that surround the valley, and the leisurely RoC of the Dragon was inadequate to clear the valley ridgeline, and he impacted the ridgeline in steeply rising, heavily wooded terrain, that has a thick canopy.

The impact would have been at a upward angle, roughly equivalent to the angle of the maximum RoC - and the Dragon tore through the canopy, and largely disintegrated upon impact with very large hardwoods at high speed.

There would be little major structural sections left, perhaps only a major section of the fuselage.
The impact point would not be visible from above, it will only be visible to observers flying along the face of the ridgeline, and looking out horizontally at the steep terrain.

This would be the reason why the search so far has found nothing. Observers would perhaps have been imagining an impact downwards from a falling aircraft that they think has run out of fuel - when the impact has been upwards at full throttle.
The impact would have possibly destroyed the EPIRB, thus the short period between activation and the cessation of the signal.
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Old 3rd Oct 2012, 03:05
  #55 (permalink)  
 
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Dragon

I'm in Canada but had to make a few calls.
First the Dornier is not searching, its doing Radio Monitoring
believe it or not.

The Helicopters are doing a great job,
all very carefully detailed search areas that
they are slowly working through
and apparently going from around
the Bella Creek area where it was last spotted.

Can anyone put some times on when it was spotted circling
for "half an hour" and when Des was talking to BN Radio?

Ramjet
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Old 3rd Oct 2012, 03:41
  #56 (permalink)  
 
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Onetrack,

Re yr 'With police and search authorities now in possession of information from credible eyewitnesses on Bella Creek Rd - who sighted the Dragon circling low over a valley just N of lake Borumba'...

Are these 'confirmed sightings'..??

Source please??
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Old 3rd Oct 2012, 03:47
  #57 (permalink)  
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From radio traffic it sounds as if wreck sighted. Going by the co-ordinates I copied, very close to the last sighting referred to above.

Last edited by spinex; 3rd Oct 2012 at 03:57.
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Old 3rd Oct 2012, 04:10
  #58 (permalink)  
 
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If those coordinates are correct that are being sent around, it's here:

My link was incorrect:

deg

s26.27.33 e152.19.30

Last edited by VH-XXX; 3rd Oct 2012 at 04:31.
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Old 3rd Oct 2012, 04:23
  #59 (permalink)  
 
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Just 2 kms from an airfield !
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Old 3rd Oct 2012, 04:24
  #60 (permalink)  
 
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Taken back in '09 when we visited Caboolture Airfield... a grand old lady!



Hardly an IFR cockpit?!

Last edited by slackie; 3rd Oct 2012 at 06:20.
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