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How low can a TC go?

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Old 30th Jan 2011, 11:12
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My memory's coming back a bit now ....

Looking through the historical Cyclone tracks ( I know, I should get out more often) it appears that Victoria and Tassie have missed out ...

However, I do remember the fact that a cyclone has crossed the coast of Australia ... in every month of the year.

No, not this year ... but historically !
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Old 30th Jan 2011, 12:18
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However low TCs can go, Bianca carked it big time at a great rate of knots. It's disappeared!
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Old 30th Jan 2011, 17:42
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Tin found one once back around '81-2. Dunno if the BOM had lost it or they didnt bother about 'em much around the Kimberly coast at that time
This one was down near Bigge Island. Weird sensation, over water laying off big mobs of drift but smooth. I told me mates in the Kunnerwuckers FSU it was there. Never got a medal or nothin' tho.
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Old 31st Jan 2011, 00:53
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While everyone was gazing intently at Bianca out to sea in the opposite direction a good old fashioned storm developed inland on Saturday and destroyed the Avon Valley.

Lots and lots of damage close by me.
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Old 31st Jan 2011, 01:26
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Nice animated satellite pic here of Yasi.

MTSAT Infrared Colorized Image Loop - Satellite Services Division - Office of Satellite Data Processing and Distribution

Word going around is this could be the worst cyclone to hit Australia since Cyclone Tracy.

morno
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Old 31st Jan 2011, 03:40
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morno......Great News.......and guess where I am going on Thursday

You might be going on holidays again too!
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Old 31st Jan 2011, 04:07
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Ummmm, Rocky?

Pleeeeeease no more holidays, .
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Old 31st Jan 2011, 04:09
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Yikes! I'm happy with Bianca, thanks all the same.
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Old 31st Jan 2011, 04:46
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Yasi = female = BAD news!

In other parts of the world people get the hell out of Dodge when something like that is headed their way. In Nth Qld we go, "Come on - I dare ya"!

So I am off fishing tomorrow. Opening of the Barra season and the falling air pressure usually gets them on the chew.

Dr
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Old 31st Jan 2011, 05:02
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How're ya goin' to get back agin, Doc..??

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Old 31st Jan 2011, 05:55
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So I am off fishing tomorrow. Opening of the Barra season and the falling air pressure usually gets them on the chew.
Thats coz the FTDK is engineless and the fill-in Piper Tailed Bannana Boat is down at YRED so not much flying for Forkie. you could slum it in a C210 ya know.

Now you better post pics live from the Barra Boat then tomorrow, or we will be disappointed
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Old 31st Jan 2011, 12:23
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Your question about how far south a TC can/has traveled needs to address what is a TC. In Oz a cat 1 TC has w/spds of 63-88kph, cat 2 TC 89-117. In the NH a storm of our cat 2 TC would only be rated as a TS.
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Old 31st Jan 2011, 20:21
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As mentioned in some of the previous posts, central pressure is not the key factor. For example, recent TC Vania was a low for a long time with the pressure down to 988hPa before it was named.
The WMO definition of a TC is "a non-frontal low pressure system of synoptic scale developing over warm waters and having a definite organized wind circulation with a maximum 10-minute average wind speed of 34kt or greater near the centre".
Sea surface temp >26.5degC is the generally accepted criteria for "warm waters" and it is also true that they usually need to be further than 5deg from the equator.
Different parts of the world do have different ways of naming and categorizing TCs.
What becomes interesting is when they move out of the tropics and head towards NZ (or parts of Australia further south). A TC has a structure quite different from a mid-latitude (or polar) system, with a deep warm core. Once they move south, as well as moving over cooler seas (or land), the jetstream usually becomes influential in shearing the TC and weakening it. Sometimes, the remains of a TC can become re-invigorated by the jet. But the structure will be quite different from the structure of a TC. Interestingly, TC Wilma kept its TC structure much further south than what we would usually see. I guess the thing to keep in mind is that they may be re-classified (ie lose their name) but can still be a major weather system.
Phew, that got a bit long
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