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Pilot shortage coming or Not??

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Old 23rd May 2010, 03:50
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I heard from a friend of a friend's neighbour's boyfriend's uncle's pet budgie that it is in fact this week - Tuesday between 11:32 and 12:18 to be more exact.
The Townsville refuller recons it will be at 14:34 on Thursday.

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Old 23rd May 2010, 03:52
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I heard from a friend of a friend's neighbour's boyfriend's uncle's pet budgie that it is in fact this week - Tuesday between 11:32 and 12:18 to be more exact.
The Townsville refuller recons it will be at 14:34 on Thursday.

Is this in UTC or EST? this is a crucial thing you know! I don't want to miss out!!
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Old 23rd May 2010, 04:05
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Look at the world around you people. PIGS/EU/UK/US and now Rudd doing his level best to wreck our economy through a desperate resources tax grab. If the UK/US/EU is not buying stuff from China then China doesn't buy resources from Australia. China can't continue stimulating artificial domestic demand (building cities no one lives in) for ever. If Govt stimulus is so bloody good for an economy then explain Greece.

The only thing 'coming' is GFC Part 2 and, thanks to our pollies, this time Australia has no ability to weather it.
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Old 23rd May 2010, 04:28
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The only thing 'coming' is GFC Part 2 and, thanks to our pollies, this time Australia has no ability to weather it.
I think Australia is particularly well placed to weather a number of economic scenarios including the current European crisis.

The worst case scenario I see is a crashing commodity demand which puts us in a low dollar, low interest rate environment. That will suit consumers and a number of areas in our economy.

On pilot demand, Australians generally now pay for endorsements and standards are modest. In combination, this will always ensure there are plenty of folks 'suitable' for filling airline seats.
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Old 23rd May 2010, 04:50
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Depends what the definition of a shortage is. I think a shortage would be reflected in the hours required being reduced. I think you will see more programs like the Qantaslink Traineeship for pilots around the mark, but not quite there yet, get started up in the next few years. The 150 hour CPL just of flying school might not get a look in, but those guys with GA time around a 1000hr who might normally not get looked at, might start to get a chance earlier than expected. Just a theory.
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Old 23rd May 2010, 06:01
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The Townsville refuller recons it will be at 14:34 on Thursday.
What.........during Oprah? Surely not?

Who organized this?
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Old 23rd May 2010, 07:07
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Dont see why RFDS wont drop their mins now that they are operating 208s. Does not require a 3000hr pilot with huge amounts of night and IF experience to fly a 208 by day on the clinic runs.
Because the level of safety is greater from an experienced pilot (in this case, greater than 3,000hrs), than a lesser experienced pilot. RFDS values their crews safety. Why do you think they moved away from charter?

Another reason, they don't want young 1,500hr pilots to stay 12 months, get a few hours, then piss off to the airlines.

Wonder how long it will take before the RFDS bean counters realise that they dont have to pay 95k a year for a caravan driver and start recruiting lower time guys to do the clinic runs.
While it's not impossible they will have drivers on lower pay doing only these clinic runs, even if that were to happen, it would still be the same requirements. Unlikely though.

hugh_jorgan,
It will be an awful long time before there is a real "pilot shortage" in Australia. Therefore, your hopes and dreams of getting into RFDS to fly their caravans so you can accelerate your career, aren't going to happen, .

morno
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Old 23rd May 2010, 07:14
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onedaysoon has a good point,

i think that the impending "pilot shortage" will be for experienced drivers. Meaning chaps (and gals) who prob have over a coupla thousand hrs.

as Krusty mentioned, there are always going to be people lured into learing to fly - but just because there is an excess of bare CPL's playing flight sim at home - doesnt mean that a proper pilot shortage will not happen.

I dont think that it will be as 'pronounced' as the last shortage because last time there were many factors all contributing at the same time.
This time round airlines (so they claim) are aware of the possibility of a lack of experienced drivers, and are taking measures (so they claim) to tackle this impending issue.

But they'll screw it up anyway - and at least for the short term those of us with experience can pick and choose where we would like to go.
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Old 23rd May 2010, 07:45
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i think that the impending "pilot shortage" will be for experienced drivers. Meaning chaps (and gals) who prob have over a coupla thousand hrs.
WOOHOO!!! Tick...

Therefore, your hopes and dreams of getting into RFDS to fly their caravans so you can accelerate your career, aren't going to happen
Classic, but jorgen is probably flying one of Al's Vans in Cairns and looks across the apron and see's those gorgeous brand new glass girls and thinks 'It aint that hard'. Hell, I know I've been there, then I grew up.

j3
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Old 23rd May 2010, 08:31
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Wonder how long it will take before the RFDS bean counters realise that they dont have to pay 95k a year for a caravan driver and start recruiting lower time guys to do the clinic runs.
Aim for that job and its conditions. If you had the experience and had the job would you be telling people you were over paid?
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Old 23rd May 2010, 11:23
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Hey Morno, Just so we are clear. I have no desire whatsoever to fly caravans for the RFDS nor am I in a rush to get to the airlines. Cant think of anything worse than pressing buttons at FL300 but fully understand that my views on this will more than likely change once family mortgage wife etc etc come on the scene. j3 you could not be more wrong.

I never suggested that they should use
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young 1,500hr pilots to stay 12 months, get a few hours, then piss off to the airlines
They are your words. I merely stated that it does not take a 3000hr pilot to do the clinic runs. You put the 1500hr figure in there. Prob a lot of guys and girls out there that would love to make a career out of the doctors and using the van as a stepping stone would be a good option.

But all this is irrelevant wasn't this thread all about the pilot shortage?

Me reckons As long as they keep letting those kiwi pilots come to our shores there will more than likely never be a pilot shortage in Australia! Might be one over there though.
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Old 23rd May 2010, 11:35
  #52 (permalink)  
 
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Well what sort of hours are you inferring?
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Old 27th May 2010, 07:08
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Whether its of any relevance or interest to anyone, word is that the RFDS have had to drop their Sydney requirements quite drastically as they've just lost 2 guys with the possibility of 4 more leaving soon. Apparently guys who don't meet requirements are being interviewed at the moment. As the Sydney pilots are pushing for a better EBA (in line with Queensland) the CP is telling all that there are more than enough CV's that exceed requirements in his possession. Why are they not interviewing them then?
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Old 27th May 2010, 09:04
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It's not ALL about hrs when it comes to the RFDS. Sure they have high mins due at times because of certain contractual requirements (out of RFDS hands) it's whether the candidate can actually fly as expected of a 2000+ hr pilot with the knowledge that goes with that level of experience. You can fly around all day in a twin in VMC with A/P on (that ain't rocket science) but when it comes to hand flying with an eng failed at night (Sim chk) is when the men from the boys are filtered out. It's not meant to be a 'cull' or make anyone feel awful it's to make sure that when the sh1t hits the fan you want the very best behind the wheel & that only comes from raw experience done the hard way
Am sure the CP has a cabinet full of CV's but few make it all the way thru to an offer, hrs is just part of it.
There will always be a turn over within the RFDS. Once considered a job for life that's no longer the case now that contracts form part of the RFDS work.
You won't however find a better more rewarding job than an RFDS pilot. It's SP ops but a huge team effort! Some of the most challenging & rewarding flying I've ever done has been with this crowd, the current crew are awesome!

Anyway to the subject heading..................not so much about a pilot shortage but a shortage of pilots, the right ones for the jobs vacant:-)


Wmk2
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Old 27th May 2010, 09:33
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Harry Cooper
RFDS don't set the requirements in Sydney its the NSW Ambulance service that Does.
If you intend on applying firstly have a thorough look at the living expenses in Sydney before you do.
Do not believe the propaganda see for your self.

Regards The Dog
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Old 1st Jun 2010, 03:42
  #56 (permalink)  
 
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With swinburne/oxford, are the graduates garrenteed a flying position at the end? If not, then it's just another sausage factory, albeit with a fancy name!
The graduating class of 08 &09 are struggling for work from what I see and hear. From what I was told from the 09 class only 2 guys have work flying so far... the 08 class... maybe half a dozen.

Will be interesting to see when the 2011 class of about 120 students or so leaves their doors and hits the GA industry trying to find work

Of course tho last time I was in there a few months ago they were pumping students out like there's no tomorrow and telling them it ain't that hard to find work. Big fancy name aside I could've saved about $10,000 if I did my CPL elsewhere. Money which would be of much use driving around oz right now looking for work
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Old 1st Jun 2010, 04:58
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120 students in the 2011 class alone. Holy Cr@p! There aren't that many jobs left in GA. And I'm not talking about the acceptable jobs either.

We may see a few hard lessons coming up, and I don't mean ATPL Flight planning.
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Old 1st Jun 2010, 05:48
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Yeah, approaching your destination at 3am and realising you've missed that "prob30 fog", kind of lesson.

On the shortage, cant anyone else remember a time when there were no such thing as job adverts. You found a job by word of mouth only. Seems to me that there are a lot of jobs advertised now, surely that means something?
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Old 1st Jun 2010, 07:20
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120 hey?

Welcome to the age of Hex your training. Pity we can't send them all to New Zealand

At least it may slow the flow coming the other way
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Old 1st Jun 2010, 10:11
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120 hey?
About that... my year level had around 30 or so roughly... I know the 2009 first years had 3 classes for a certain subject at uni as opposed to the traditional 1 cause of the higher student numbers... so they've at least doubled if not trippled their student in-take and are probably going to increase.
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