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New Water Bomber for Victoria

Old 29th Dec 2009, 00:01
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That's wat happens when you spend too much money without doing the sums on cost-effectiveness.

I'd say that it sounds very much like NSW, except that NSW creates more National Parks while offering redundancies to NSW-NPWS firefighting staff. My comments on their reasoning would be very cynical.

Pete
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Old 29th Dec 2009, 00:11
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Farmer Pete...some figures for you to put some context in the argument.
King Lake complex=450,000acres+
Marysville comples=370,000acres+
Just two fires along the same area of the Dandenong Ranges consumed some 820,000acres.

In total Black Saturday in Victoria consumed some 1,111,074acres of land.
In 06/07, 70 individual fires merged into one to burn through 2,471,053acres of Alpine Victorian forest.
In 2003 Victoria lost 3,706,580acres of land to fire in the North East.

In three separate fire seasons less than five years apart, over 5,000,000acres of land was lost.

Do you think Victoria alone needs some serious firepower when it comes to taking the fight to the fires?

In my opinion, the Authorities would rather let a fire burn out if it doesn't threaten life or asset. However, that policy allows a fire to burn quietly unchecked (where it can be stopped) until the next trough comes through and allows the beast to roar again threatening life and asset in small communities considered "Too Dangerous to defend"

Just to put us in context with Californa.

As a footnote...this last season the DSE have appeared to be more helpful than ever up in the North East...they actually were more proactive in fighting the fires with backburns and putting assets on the ground than years past...then again, they have lost a lot of face in the district. A crew change allowed Tatra ski complex to burn to the ground on Mt Buffalo in 06 after a backburn got out of control. State Goverment just pocketed the insurance money rather than rebuild the site($6,000,000 I believe. Locals believe it is a greenie agenda to return Mt Buffalo to natural state and not give a reason for anyone to go up there in the winter.)
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Old 29th Dec 2009, 00:26
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Ozbusdriver,
the most damage was on that bad Saturday. There were spots that a big machine could have worked but the bulk of them it could not. For two weeks after that day there were something like 8 fixed wing and 4 medium choppers just working out of Latrobe. These machines were working maybe 20 different fires and many more individual points on these fires. From Wilsons Prom in the south to Dargo in the north to stuff on th SA border there was machinery operating. How many big machines should be used? What cost would you say is too much to pay? The current fleet is a compromise of big and little. There are jobs that skycranes are good for and there are jobs that fixed wing are suited to. Now there is a choice of a big machine, it has limitations like all the rest of the fleet and I'm sure the Airdesk know that.
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Old 29th Dec 2009, 00:46
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OZBUSDRIVER..

The issue WRT the Kinglake and Marysville fires is that no aircraft could have stopped them under the conditions prevailing at the time. Probably, the same could be said of the larger Cali fires.... the only conclusion that can really be reached is that neither state has found the answer to the bad ones - regardless of what size aircraft are used.

The figures that I'd really like to see, and which would be useful in making valid comparisons, are the relative successes in first attack..... getting fires out early, before they develop. I don't have a good timeline for the BlackSat fires, but I attended one on a bad day not long ago. Within the first hour, it had run approximately 10km, and was burning on a front at least 2km wide. The smoke was such that the AT802 in the air at the time could not get in to hit useful targets. Work out for yourself whether a DC10 would have been much use in that situation. maybe when the wind dropped, but when that happened, we got around it with graders.


Could Vic use more resources? Definitely!

However I'm just as concerned that insufficient emphasis is being put on fuel reduction burning and adequate fire trails. You'll know yourself how vital it is to have ground-crews supporting any work done from the air, and no firebreak - whether built by dozer or aircraft - will effectively hold a fire when intensity is such that spotting distances exceed the width of the break.

Yes,,, I agree that we should put more emphasis on getting fires out early. That's where aircraft (IMHO) contribute most, rather than being thrown at a bad fire when everything else has failed.

Regards..... Peter
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Old 29th Dec 2009, 01:03
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For those unfamiliar with fire behaviour, the basic prediction tool developed by the CSIRO is the McArthur Fire Danger Meter. It is used to develop the fire danger indices so beloved of the media.

An online copy is available here.

Calculating Forest FDI's

I suggest that you go to the site, and start plugging in your own figures. A really bad day will have temperatures in excess of 40C, RH below 10% and wind in excess of 60KPH.

I suggest that you start at T=38C RH=25% and Wind=30kph. Drought factor of 9-10 and fuel load of 15-20 tons per ha.

Have a look at the expected spotting distance.

Now play around and work out how much you have to back off the conditions before the spotting distance is less than the 90m quoted as the effective width of the retardant line produced by the DC10.

Regards..... Peter
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Old 29th Dec 2009, 01:18
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I happened to pass through Hamilton on that bad Saturday, there were embers landing at the airfield from the Colraine fire, it would have been maybe 25 miles away?
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Old 29th Dec 2009, 01:25
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Super Cecil.

I'm not surprised.

Spot fires were confirmed at similar distances during the '03 Canberra fires.
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Old 29th Dec 2009, 06:21
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Thanks for the link to the FDI calculator, Peter. When you punch in the figures and add an up slope, you get what the Smokies were saying for the day in question...in excess of 200!
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Old 29th Dec 2009, 07:23
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Parked next to the DC10 at Avalon the other day in our Air Ambulance King Air.

Nice machine and will certainly provide a good shower.
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Old 10th Jan 2010, 20:31
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Does any one know if the aircraft has been used operationally yet. I see in the press that there has beena fire burning in Northern Tasmania for the past week or so, and at various times threatening Beaconsfield and surrounding community's.

Would it not have been feasible in the early stages of this fire to have flown the aircraft down (flight time 40 mins) to put out the fire before it got as a large as it is now. From the press reports, there is a large amount of resources being used juts to contain the fire.
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Old 10th Jan 2010, 21:01
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The DC10 is reportedly "on standby" for any fires this week as reported by the media last week.
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Old 10th Jan 2010, 23:04
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Super Cecil.

I'm not surprised.

Spot fires were confirmed at similar distances during the '03 Canberra fires
Yep, I still remember sitting in the backyard in Braddon (suburb next to the city centre) and watching embers landing from the fires on the other side of town.
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Old 11th Jan 2010, 09:16
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Dog One asked.....
I see in the press that there has beena fire burning in Northern Tasmania for the past week or so, and at various times threatening Beaconsfield and surrounding community's.

Would it not have been feasible in the early stages of this fire to have flown the aircraft down (flight time 40 mins) to put out the fire before it got as a large as it is now. From the press reports, there is a large amount of resources being used juts to contain the fire.
An interstate deployment is a political issue.
The Tasmanians would have to ask for it, and be prepared to pay for it. This wouyld depend very much upon their own predictions for fire behaviour, and their expectations of their ability to control it with the assets at hand.

There is also the question of whether the Vic government would be prepared to see such an assett made unavailable for their own fires. Not politically clever if events show that it was needed at home..... and Fire Danger across a fair slice of SE Australia at the moment is approaching "Extreme".

Secondly, it is rare that aircraft actually put fires out. They are a very useful supporting asset, but they do not replace ground troops for actual extinguishment. Not that this is a reason to not deploy them,just suggesting that you adjust your expectations.

Respectfully.... Peter
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Old 1st Dec 2010, 23:28
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http://video.news.com.au/1674225090/...ews-Fire-fight

nice drop here from 604
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