Amelia Earhart PNG Theory
David, I am not doubting your assessment that a tag existed. What I am saying is that if the metal tag from AE's aircraft can be shown beyond reasonable doubt to have existed in New Britain, then Gregs hypothesis is then bilgewater.
It wouldn't need the physical tag either. If the U.S. unit that received it sent an interrogatory signal to HQ with the tag details that is on file in the archives then that would be conclusive proof in my book.
The discovery of that, if it were to occur, would be stunning and as I've previously said, trigger a major investigation for which you and your benefactors would need to Lawyer up. I was privy to the machinations that went on after Ballard discovered Titanic, all the way to Camerons movie. The discovery of AE's resting place would trigger the same storm in my opinion.
It wouldn't need the physical tag either. If the U.S. unit that received it sent an interrogatory signal to HQ with the tag details that is on file in the archives then that would be conclusive proof in my book.
The discovery of that, if it were to occur, would be stunning and as I've previously said, trigger a major investigation for which you and your benefactors would need to Lawyer up. I was privy to the machinations that went on after Ballard discovered Titanic, all the way to Camerons movie. The discovery of AE's resting place would trigger the same storm in my opinion.
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The Tag, again....
Well, I do hope that we eventually find the “actual” tag that Keith Nurse removed from the Engine Mount Tubing because it could be as described in a letter I have.
If someone will inform me how to post a .pdf file I will post this letter.
This “notarised” letter was received from Bill Prymak in 2010. Bill was a noted researcher based in Denver Co.. When I first began corresponding with Bill he did not believe that the term “C/N” [for Construction Number} was a term used in the U.S. at aircraft manufacturing companies. He made enquiries and found that it was. It was probably, in “my” thinking, a hangover from the British use of the term and “exported” with British migrants or workers at American companies….
Bill Prymak knew a David Kenyon who worked at Lockheed in the 30’s and this is what Kenyon told Bill Prymak:
In the letter Bill states:
“He (Kenyon) stated to me that all engine mounts were fabricated by a foundry in L.A., shipped to Lockheed and stored with crated engines outside the assembly building. Each mount had a metal tag attached by wire, showing CN and hp rating. Since various engines were used in the Lockheed Electra assembly line, each required a different engine mount configuration, thus proper tagging was essential…”
Letter dated April 24th 2010 and Notarised.
As I see it, this is just as valid a reason as to why there was a metal tag hanging by wired from the mount on the detached engine as my explanation of a “Repair Tag” that we discussed weeks ago. The only thing missing in the above paragraph is the “S3H1”
As I said if someone will explain how to post a .pdf, I’ll post the letter.
Well, I do hope that we eventually find the “actual” tag that Keith Nurse removed from the Engine Mount Tubing because it could be as described in a letter I have.
If someone will inform me how to post a .pdf file I will post this letter.
This “notarised” letter was received from Bill Prymak in 2010. Bill was a noted researcher based in Denver Co.. When I first began corresponding with Bill he did not believe that the term “C/N” [for Construction Number} was a term used in the U.S. at aircraft manufacturing companies. He made enquiries and found that it was. It was probably, in “my” thinking, a hangover from the British use of the term and “exported” with British migrants or workers at American companies….
Bill Prymak knew a David Kenyon who worked at Lockheed in the 30’s and this is what Kenyon told Bill Prymak:
In the letter Bill states:
“He (Kenyon) stated to me that all engine mounts were fabricated by a foundry in L.A., shipped to Lockheed and stored with crated engines outside the assembly building. Each mount had a metal tag attached by wire, showing CN and hp rating. Since various engines were used in the Lockheed Electra assembly line, each required a different engine mount configuration, thus proper tagging was essential…”
Letter dated April 24th 2010 and Notarised.
As I see it, this is just as valid a reason as to why there was a metal tag hanging by wired from the mount on the detached engine as my explanation of a “Repair Tag” that we discussed weeks ago. The only thing missing in the above paragraph is the “S3H1”
As I said if someone will explain how to post a .pdf, I’ll post the letter.
This is my pdf file-plot showing max range versus distance from Howland when earhart turned back to ' crash' site
BASELINE ITERATION-A.pdf
which when you click it - and depending on brower settings will download to your desktop or file the pdf
It took a bit - but look in lower left hand of screen as to what YOU are allowed to do - one line shoud say you are allowed to post attachments.
I use a mac- so there may be subtle diffs in what your browser shows.
Go up to the bar which shows how to add emojis and quotes -- " --, and find via hovering- not clicking the attachment icon
Suggest you put your pdf file on your "desktop " before you start- after finding the attachment icon - clik on it- should bring up a ' find your attachment" - click on attach name ( your pdf file ) and it should result in a link which has your file name.
or you may find the following link works
Valid file extensions: doc gif jpe jpeg jpg pdf png txt zip
icon says manage attachments
then hit submit reply.
icon says manage attachments
Drag and drop pictures from your computer, or
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@Sunfish...
No problem with what you said Sunny and I totally agree that mention of a "Tag" or the actual "string of letters and numbers" upon it , if mentioned in an official signal or document would suffice to 'hold the water'. Certainly, that is what we have been looking for as well as the tag itself.... and are still looking, there is s query still active at College Park in WAS by a researcher there but nothing has yet been found in the AWM here. It is not generally known that the AWM has only carbon copies of a lot of signals from the WWII New Guinea Operations and the originals were left behind in Port Moresby and ended up in the wooden RSL Building in Moresby. When I started on this and was working at Air Niugini, long time staff there told me that they had been to the RSL in Moresby and used to sit and read the WWII Messages and SITREPS while having a beer at the RSL. This building and all the WWII Documents in it, went up in smoke when the RSL Building caught fire.
@CONSO
Thanks for info, hopefully the letter is captured in this post....and it is !
No problem with what you said Sunny and I totally agree that mention of a "Tag" or the actual "string of letters and numbers" upon it , if mentioned in an official signal or document would suffice to 'hold the water'. Certainly, that is what we have been looking for as well as the tag itself.... and are still looking, there is s query still active at College Park in WAS by a researcher there but nothing has yet been found in the AWM here. It is not generally known that the AWM has only carbon copies of a lot of signals from the WWII New Guinea Operations and the originals were left behind in Port Moresby and ended up in the wooden RSL Building in Moresby. When I started on this and was working at Air Niugini, long time staff there told me that they had been to the RSL in Moresby and used to sit and read the WWII Messages and SITREPS while having a beer at the RSL. This building and all the WWII Documents in it, went up in smoke when the RSL Building caught fire.
@CONSO
Thanks for info, hopefully the letter is captured in this post....and it is !
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David ..
Thanks for info, hopefully the letter is captured in this post....and it is !Attachments Pending Approval
Prymak Notarised Letter.pdf
try again- does not seem to work - may juset need a further key push ??
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Prudent Engineer ?
I don't know whether you have the correct word in "prudent" there Sunfish, for it is normal practice (as discussed earlier) to remove all tags when installing components.
The W/O on the patrol, Keith Nurse described the tag as only being small maybe 2" by 1" so maybe it got missed if it was the labeling tag wired on by the foundry or someone at Lockheed on receipt after manufacture or repair. I tend to think more of an "oversight".
The W/O on the patrol, Keith Nurse described the tag as only being small maybe 2" by 1" so maybe it got missed if it was the labeling tag wired on by the foundry or someone at Lockheed on receipt after manufacture or repair. I tend to think more of an "oversight".
Ah, Greg 47...he of the 'putdown'...It IS a fascinating "hypothesis" and we would like to see some conclusion...whatever the outcome.
We didnt THINK we did better en route to Nauru. we KNEW we did better....with the technological blessing of GPS we were able to get to our destination, WITHOUT having to turn back, and try again later.
I do have decades of 'staring at the dials' and on a solo, SE over water elsewhere...and 'position doubtful' when a nav turn-point island failed to show/ be seen...., some sweat.!! some calculations from a circle of probability, and an alternative heading got me a successful conclusion.
We look forward to another.
We didnt THINK we did better en route to Nauru. we KNEW we did better....with the technological blessing of GPS we were able to get to our destination, WITHOUT having to turn back, and try again later.
I do have decades of 'staring at the dials' and on a solo, SE over water elsewhere...and 'position doubtful' when a nav turn-point island failed to show/ be seen...., some sweat.!! some calculations from a circle of probability, and an alternative heading got me a successful conclusion.
We look forward to another.
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@Sunfish...
You may be correct there, after a little thought, perhaps the method was to leave a small tag on for ident., (as per Prymak's letter to me) , "before" the advent of thin stamped strips welded on as I have seen that "welded strip" method in my time.
@propertee64...
Nothing yet, they will let me know when it will appear... I am guessing here, but the July 2nd anniversary is coming up so maybe around then. July 2nd is a Monday so maybe the weekend before. Saturday 30th June edition maybe.....
You may be correct there, after a little thought, perhaps the method was to leave a small tag on for ident., (as per Prymak's letter to me) , "before" the advent of thin stamped strips welded on as I have seen that "welded strip" method in my time.
@propertee64...
Nothing yet, they will let me know when it will appear... I am guessing here, but the July 2nd anniversary is coming up so maybe around then. July 2nd is a Monday so maybe the weekend before. Saturday 30th June edition maybe.....
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@Propertee64...
Yes, quite so, see post #463....
The find of the metal tag would be the most majestic of finds in regard to this project but "any" piece of paper referencing the '600H/P S3H1 C/N1055' on an official document would suffice. I think we have exhausted College Park in Washington in regard to the 594th EB&SR Company "B" records and indeed the 4th ESB (Engineer Special Brigade) records of the US Army.... now we need to get to Maxwell AFB IN Alabama for the pure "Air Force" records from the former USAAF and hopes there would be pinned on a "5th Air Force, Recovery Unit" specialising in the recovery of personnel from downed aircraft.... bearing in mind that the 5th AF had already left New Guinea and were "busy" in the Philippines. This then could lead to the 13th Air Force USAAF as a source for records as the 13th AF had moved up from the Solomons area and was HQ'd on Los Negros Island in the Admiraltiy Islands after the 5th AF had moved out...... A case of ever expanding circles..... Somewhere, an American Unit was notified and replied to Australian Command some five weeks later, that is the record we seek.
The find of the metal tag would be the most majestic of finds in regard to this project but "any" piece of paper referencing the '600H/P S3H1 C/N1055' on an official document would suffice. I think we have exhausted College Park in Washington in regard to the 594th EB&SR Company "B" records and indeed the 4th ESB (Engineer Special Brigade) records of the US Army.... now we need to get to Maxwell AFB IN Alabama for the pure "Air Force" records from the former USAAF and hopes there would be pinned on a "5th Air Force, Recovery Unit" specialising in the recovery of personnel from downed aircraft.... bearing in mind that the 5th AF had already left New Guinea and were "busy" in the Philippines. This then could lead to the 13th Air Force USAAF as a source for records as the 13th AF had moved up from the Solomons area and was HQ'd on Los Negros Island in the Admiraltiy Islands after the 5th AF had moved out...... A case of ever expanding circles..... Somewhere, an American Unit was notified and replied to Australian Command some five weeks later, that is the record we seek.
Just thought this post deserved a bump.......
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FWIW- I'm close to being able to post/send to dave an excel solver setup which makes it easier to automatically iterate possible solutions to *PROBABLE* ability to reach PNG crash site given a few known ' gates ' of known time and lockheed report of max range methods, etc. Work so far *** SEEMS ** to show that a Gross weight at takeoff of around 14,500 would work - BUT THAT THEN requires a TARE weight of around 2000 pounds less than normal- assuming a constant wind of around 20 to 30 mph throughout.... As I've said its very preliminary- I s†ill have to double check effects of time at ontario and expected time at howland. I can duplicate fairly closely the mantero data... I'm trying to make it simple to set gates and derive other 'probable gates all related to GPH and Gross weights..... more later
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Conso, David's website contains very detailed Excel spreadsheets with key data for each section of the flight. Will your suggested Excel solver set up provide all that detailed input David has used plus
the facility being to easily change the input data?
the facility being to easily change the input data?
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Later on in a day or so, I will list th half dozen ' gates" and probable time and gallons- wind and GVW data which result in a 50 mile or less closure. at fuel = ZERO.
Conso
Last edited by CONSO; 6th Jul 2018 at 14:20. Reason: typos- fat fingers especially early in AM
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@CONSO:
That "Solver" method sounds as if it could be harder work than doing it by my "manual" MS Excel method where I can bury formulae in the cells and run actual equation checks every so often just to make sure I'm in the ball park of where the Radio transmissons and timings are.... Very interesting if the Solver comes up with what i have though !
@propertee64:
The tabulation that I put into the website is not the actual working file of the "MS Excel" method, if that was printed ipn A4 sheets of paper it would run for about 30 pages, the one i have on the website is a MS Word "contraction" of the results from Excel and is for 14,700 lbs AUW. I have also done a 15,000 lb AUX MS Excel file. You might say, "Why do that because if she can get back to East New Britain on a fuel load of 1100 gallons, surely she would be able to get back with another 300 lbs of gas (51 USG) ? It doesn't work that way though, the extra 300 lbs of gas has to be 'carried' all the way out into the Pacific which means a slight power increase requirement to get it there.....
The Weekend Australian article:
I am told the Earhart article about our project and efforts is to be printed in this weekend's edition of The Australian newspaper, i.e: on Saturday 14th July.
That "Solver" method sounds as if it could be harder work than doing it by my "manual" MS Excel method where I can bury formulae in the cells and run actual equation checks every so often just to make sure I'm in the ball park of where the Radio transmissons and timings are.... Very interesting if the Solver comes up with what i have though !
@propertee64:
The tabulation that I put into the website is not the actual working file of the "MS Excel" method, if that was printed ipn A4 sheets of paper it would run for about 30 pages, the one i have on the website is a MS Word "contraction" of the results from Excel and is for 14,700 lbs AUW. I have also done a 15,000 lb AUX MS Excel file. You might say, "Why do that because if she can get back to East New Britain on a fuel load of 1100 gallons, surely she would be able to get back with another 300 lbs of gas (51 USG) ? It doesn't work that way though, the extra 300 lbs of gas has to be 'carried' all the way out into the Pacific which means a slight power increase requirement to get it there.....
The Weekend Australian article:
I am told the Earhart article about our project and efforts is to be printed in this weekend's edition of The Australian newspaper, i.e: on Saturday 14th July.
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@CONSO:
That "Solver" method sounds as if it could be harder work than doing it by my "manual" MS Excel method where I can bury formulae in the cells and run actual equation checks every so often just to make sure I'm in the ball park of where the Radio transmissons and timings are.... Very interesting if the Solver comes up with what i have though !
@propertee64:
The tabulation that I put into the website is not the actual working file of the "MS Excel" method, if that was printed ipn A4 sheets of paper it would run for about 30 pages, the one i have on the website is a MS Word "contraction" of the results from Excel and is for 14,700 lbs AUW. I have also done a 15,000 lb AUX MS Excel file. You might say, "Why do that because if she can get back to East New Britain on a fuel load of 1100 gallons, surely she would be able to get back with another 300 lbs of gas (51 USG) ? It doesn't work that way though, the extra 300 lbs of gas has to be 'carried' all the way out into the Pacific which means a slight power increase requirement to get it there.....
The Weekend Australian article:
I am told the Earhart article about our project and efforts is to be printed in this weekend's edition of The Australian newspaper, i.e: on Saturday 14th July.
That "Solver" method sounds as if it could be harder work than doing it by my "manual" MS Excel method where I can bury formulae in the cells and run actual equation checks every so often just to make sure I'm in the ball park of where the Radio transmissons and timings are.... Very interesting if the Solver comes up with what i have though !
@propertee64:
The tabulation that I put into the website is not the actual working file of the "MS Excel" method, if that was printed ipn A4 sheets of paper it would run for about 30 pages, the one i have on the website is a MS Word "contraction" of the results from Excel and is for 14,700 lbs AUW. I have also done a 15,000 lb AUX MS Excel file. You might say, "Why do that because if she can get back to East New Britain on a fuel load of 1100 gallons, surely she would be able to get back with another 300 lbs of gas (51 USG) ? It doesn't work that way though, the extra 300 lbs of gas has to be 'carried' all the way out into the Pacific which means a slight power increase requirement to get it there.....
The Weekend Australian article:
I am told the Earhart article about our project and efforts is to be printed in this weekend's edition of The Australian newspaper, i.e: on Saturday 14th July.
The 60 rows of data are 58 identical rows via copy and paste ( with a few anchor values )- trivial to do in excel. only about 3 to 4 colums contain anything but simple math and max- min data. Currently about 10 variables
are considered or needed or involved, such as GVW at takeoff, GPH gas, IAS start or needed to get range max, time and milage at Ontairo and Num, and wind at three segments. The rows can easily be expanded to cover time increments of your choice, currently using half hour increments which can easily be changed to hour, quarter hour or 1/10 hour, with corresponding number of rows needed to cover probable results and time. Currently i'm using .5 hour increments which seem which seem to fit a carefully derived curve-plot data based on LAC data of GVW- versus GPH. Although not complete with my cross checking and verification of ' reasonable/likely/ probable results, I will shortly list here my Solver solution based on ' near zero ( plus or minus 10-15 gallons ) gas and /or remaning miles to ' crash ' site and likely wind data. It took a close look and careful analysis of the LAC 487 page 8 figure II data to properly relate GVW versus IAS versus GPH data on page 34. The result was the use of two curve fit routines which had a match point off 11020 GVW and 39.8 GPH at IAS speeds between 128 and 148 mph. Currentlty I'm working to provide a simplified training Solver analysis of page 7 figure 1 data to show how it works and the results. I've found that a simple two equation curve, transitioning from an exponential curve at GVW above 11020 and a straight at less than 11020 GVW give very good matching results for zero wind. The remaining issue is to determine most likely transition points probable for wind speeds and probable IAS speeds used. I'll publish the curve-data I have so far for your 14,700 and 15,000 GVW at takeoff with ' reasonable wind ' data, range results and probable turnaround milage.
Conso
e
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The Weekend Australian Magazine
A cautionary note for those that do not usually buy "The Weekend Australian".....
I have looked on the website this morning at 3:25 am to see of the Earhart Search in PNG story is appearing in todays issue and it is NOT listed for today's edition.
The information I had from the journalist writing it up was that is was to be published on the 14th July......
A cautionary note for those that do not usually buy "The Weekend Australian".....
I have looked on the website this morning at 3:25 am to see of the Earhart Search in PNG story is appearing in todays issue and it is NOT listed for today's edition.
The information I had from the journalist writing it up was that is was to be published on the 14th July......