Amelia Earhart PNG Theory
who ever does find it - then this will be some story that I am pretty sure of
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David so your saying she never arrived in the vicinity of Howland island. Its a physical impossibility for this AC to have the range to return to ENB after arriving at same
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In any case, it would appear David is close to discovering a 'mystery plane', because no one owns it, and it was our own troops who stumbled across it, and it is not believed to be a civilian aircraft crashed there during or before the war.
What if Gina Reinhardt could back a search party, how good to be backed by an Australian woman, solving an almost 81 year old mystery.
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You've reiterated my thoughts Matt, I wanted to know how Greg could definitively know. Nobody does for sure. You can't call it impossible when the facts are limited.
As David said a while back, who in their right mind would keep searching for Howland after X minutes as that would definitely take you past the point of no return! Scan for X minutes and head back to a known good location. Anything else would be suicide.
I'm assuming this is the first time a long range customized electra has had its tanks run try, so nobody truly knows the full range until empty...
David, how far off in terms of miles and angle is the wreck from the potential landing strip? Was it effectively "in-line" with where you'd want to be once land was sighted and they fell short, or is it a bit random where it ended up.
Excellent idea on Gina and I'm tipping that being involved in the mining industry she would have access to state of the art detection equipment or certainly be working with companies that possess that technology.
As David said a while back, who in their right mind would keep searching for Howland after X minutes as that would definitely take you past the point of no return! Scan for X minutes and head back to a known good location. Anything else would be suicide.
I'm assuming this is the first time a long range customized electra has had its tanks run try, so nobody truly knows the full range until empty...
David, how far off in terms of miles and angle is the wreck from the potential landing strip? Was it effectively "in-line" with where you'd want to be once land was sighted and they fell short, or is it a bit random where it ended up.
Excellent idea on Gina and I'm tipping that being involved in the mining industry she would have access to state of the art detection equipment or certainly be working with companies that possess that technology.
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sorry grizzled...... its posted so its fact .?I sugest you check some facts. Instead of building your case on a myth. You are dissalusioned. It wasnt so long ago it was found by divers near Buka?.Another dressed up scenario, Captured by the japs,filming, then secret bases.
Supposedly seen after the war in the USA. It goes on. Id sugest the latest bone analysis would be more thorough than some 3rd world analysis yonks ago . We recently had one of the Zarinas and Tsar children exhumed in USA...sorry
Supposedly seen after the war in the USA. It goes on. Id sugest the latest bone analysis would be more thorough than some 3rd world analysis yonks ago . We recently had one of the Zarinas and Tsar children exhumed in USA...sorry
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sorry grizzled...... its posted so its fact .?I sugest you check some facts. Instead of building your case on a myth. You are dissalusioned. It wasnt so long ago it was found by divers near Buka?.Another dressed up scenario, Captured by the japs,filming, then secret bases.
Supposedly seen after the war in the USA. It goes on. Id sugest the latest bone analysis would be more thorough than some 3rd world analysis yonks ago . We recently had one of the Zarinas and Tsar children exhumed in USA...sorry
Supposedly seen after the war in the USA. It goes on. Id sugest the latest bone analysis would be more thorough than some 3rd world analysis yonks ago . We recently had one of the Zarinas and Tsar children exhumed in USA...sorry
Are you referring to the latest bone analysis that was done with no bones???
It wouldn't stand up in a court of law but is good enough for a landmark finding of major significance !
Hello David, I must confess to being slightly bemused by your response - why wouldn't you say where the area is?
My comment re location was mostly in passing and by way of discussion and enquiry regarding what resource was, or might be, available for this area, I didn't realise it was a secret.
I can understand that you've spent a lot of your life researching this, that you're passionate about it, and that you would be devastated if someone else were to get there before you, so to speak. However I suspect it could make it much easier for people to assist if they did have a clear knowledge of the location, and any other relevant detail. Innuendo is all very well but it can be time consuming, off-putting, and the interpretation could be wrong. Could it also be why some people choose not to contribute, as I've seen you comment on?
Personally I've no particular desire to go there, I'm a lot further away than you are in any event and it would be unlikely to be helpful, but I am prepared to put up some professional time, expertise, and IP into the public domain where this might assist you or anyone else in searching for a downed 'plane. Whilst this is a individual philosophy I think it behooves us to consider that in the matter of another's life and property we should do the best we can to restore these things as much as is possible. If this means that a collegial or public effort could make a difference then why wouldn't one make all information available?
FP.
My comment re location was mostly in passing and by way of discussion and enquiry regarding what resource was, or might be, available for this area, I didn't realise it was a secret.
I can understand that you've spent a lot of your life researching this, that you're passionate about it, and that you would be devastated if someone else were to get there before you, so to speak. However I suspect it could make it much easier for people to assist if they did have a clear knowledge of the location, and any other relevant detail. Innuendo is all very well but it can be time consuming, off-putting, and the interpretation could be wrong. Could it also be why some people choose not to contribute, as I've seen you comment on?
Personally I've no particular desire to go there, I'm a lot further away than you are in any event and it would be unlikely to be helpful, but I am prepared to put up some professional time, expertise, and IP into the public domain where this might assist you or anyone else in searching for a downed 'plane. Whilst this is a individual philosophy I think it behooves us to consider that in the matter of another's life and property we should do the best we can to restore these things as much as is possible. If this means that a collegial or public effort could make a difference then why wouldn't one make all information available?
FP.
What are you going to do for him, find it on Google Earth, jeez.
David has obviously sweated blood to do the searches he has already done, why would he feel like making it easy for any competitors.
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Nearest Airstrip...etc...
Let me again say that in this Project there are two sides to it:’
The Factual Side:
The discovery of an engine in the jungle which was later said to be a WASP engine. The airframe was also seen and no military insignia was seen to be on it. From the information supplied to the U.S. Army by the Australian Army , the U.S. Army stated that the find was a Pratt & Whitney Wasp engine and could be from a Lockheed as Lockheed were big users of P&W engines. They were not interested. However, two Officers from a nearby American unit did show some interest.
Note that during the conflict in New Guinea the only Lockheeds used among multi-engined aircraft were the P-38 and F-4 & F-5 PR versions…. , other aircraft were Consolidated, Boeing, North American, Douglas and Curtiss using radial engines of 1100 and 1200 H.P. You do not use a 600 H,P. aircraft anywhere near to Rabaul in a war situation. I researched through the USAF Museum and communicated with the curator there and he assured me no Pratt & Whitney S3H1 Wasps went to New Guinea during WWII from U.S. sources on military aircraft. No S3H1 designated engines were used on Military aircraft except for some prototypes being evaluated for use by the Military and these were biplanes from the early 30's...
None of the Electra’s sold to Australia were lost in New Guinea. Those airframes were powered by the P&W R-985 or the Wright R-975
Earhart was stuck in LAE for two days and met with Guinea Airways people. For the world trip her representatives scouted for suitable jumping off points and Rabaul was considered but at the time there was Volcanic eruption there.. LAKUNAI airstrip and VUNUKANAU were in existence. Surely, she and Noonan would have known about those. Pilots also discuss known strips with other pilots. I see no reason why someone would have not said to her, “If you encounter bad weather or a technical problem Vunakanau has just opened, you can duck in there." Sound feasible ?
What we have then, is that there are two P&W R-1340 S3H1 engines where they “should not be”.
The Hypothesis Side
There must have been some concern on the aircraft when it was discovered that the wind out of the East was double the forecast, as evidenced by the 23 Knot wind (26.5 mph) discovered when they rounded the corner just West of the NUKUMANU Atoll. This is evidenced by them being blown to the West of Nukumanu on the leg from CHOISEUL as reported in the 0718 GMT Lat/Long position. They could have only determined that position after working it out by a timed run from the turn to a position abeam Nukumanu Island itself, the biggest island in the atoll.
To their dismay…. They have a 26 mph headwind that they have to cope with if they are to continue. They should have turned back but a celebration in Los Angeles awaited them on July 4th. A sure case of “Pressonitis” developed. Personally my thought is that if I had been on board there would have been an argument. That’s how I see it.
Mary Lovell (Author of "The Sound of Wings") reported that at 0800 GMT Earhart radioed: “On course for Howland at 12,000 feet”. Lovell got that from Harry Balfour the Radio Operator at LAE.
Now, “I” did not take that 12,000 feet call into consideration when I worked the fuel used from then on (after 0800 GMT). Maybe I should have because it is known that Earhart did fly the Electra at 12,000 feet in the U.S.. Also, there is the point that the night-time cloud layer may have been at the 10,000 foot level and she went over it for a clear view of the night sky, needed for Astro.
Flying higher at 12,000 instead of 10,000 will use less fuel. Maybe I should run the numbers at 12,000 feet and see what I get. I didn’t use 12,000 feet because of the prolonged exposure above the Oxygen level but then again, maybe I should. I myself have been at 11,500 feet on a mountain top for two days and felt no ill-effect.
I consider the wind situation after Nukumanu to be serious. The ONTARIO at Sea Level was facing into a 20 Knot wind from 082 degrees, that is in the Ship’s Log, who is to say that the wind at 10,000 or 12,000 was not anywhere near 30 knots ? If Noonan did not get Astro he will not know the wind.
One Air Niugini pilot ferrying a Dash 7 aircraft from TARAWA to PORT MORESBY told me he was concerned about the wind at Flight Level 140 in the ITCZ until he encountered a quartering tailwind of 45 knots shown on his GPS. His fuel worries were over. That was also in mid-year.
So we have all these variables that we cannot determine with any surety but the fact is they didn’t reach Howland. My Hypothesis working at Best Lift/Drag to economise on fuel shows it to be impossible for them to be at Howland or lateral to it at 1912 GMT, I have them 250 miles short.
That is the Hypothesis.
Arising from the Hypothesis is the Contingency Plan to turn back to The Gilbert islands. If you have a contingency to turn back if you do not find your destination, you have to have "contingency fuel" a level you cannot go below. If you are unsure of your position you have the single choice of turning back or turning towards where there is land that you definitely know exists and The Gilberts are the perfect choice in this case. Turning NW for the scattered Marshalls or SE for the scattered Phoenix Group is madness if you do not know where you are on a trackline. The Gilberts were perfect because they form a line across a reciprocal on a turnback and are difficult to miss.
If they are short of Howland as in the Hypothesis they will see The Gilberts earlier than the four hours she thinks it will take.
We have then the report by Georner of the "Land in sight" call timed at 2200 GMT.
We do know that on the morning of their supposed arrival at Howland that the wind was 31 mph at 7000 feet from the East.
It will be recalled that the “rescue” PBY from HNL had to turn back for Hawaii after encountering sleet and icing conditions on the flight down to Howland. Weird weather for the tropics in mid-year,.
Island Hopping
If a straight line is drawn on a map or on Google Earth from Nukumanu through the Mortlock Atoll and through Carteret Reef and continued westwards, the line will go over where we are searching.
The nearest airstrip available in 1937 to where we search is VUNAKANAU about 35 Nm away almost due North.
Greg 47:
There can be no “modern day ” bone analysis… the Bones were lost in Fiji 70 years go. Didn’t you know that ?
Didn’t you know that two Doctors who examined the bones in 1941 stated the bones and pelvic remnant were MALE ?
Let me again say that in this Project there are two sides to it:’
The Factual Side:
The discovery of an engine in the jungle which was later said to be a WASP engine. The airframe was also seen and no military insignia was seen to be on it. From the information supplied to the U.S. Army by the Australian Army , the U.S. Army stated that the find was a Pratt & Whitney Wasp engine and could be from a Lockheed as Lockheed were big users of P&W engines. They were not interested. However, two Officers from a nearby American unit did show some interest.
Note that during the conflict in New Guinea the only Lockheeds used among multi-engined aircraft were the P-38 and F-4 & F-5 PR versions…. , other aircraft were Consolidated, Boeing, North American, Douglas and Curtiss using radial engines of 1100 and 1200 H.P. You do not use a 600 H,P. aircraft anywhere near to Rabaul in a war situation. I researched through the USAF Museum and communicated with the curator there and he assured me no Pratt & Whitney S3H1 Wasps went to New Guinea during WWII from U.S. sources on military aircraft. No S3H1 designated engines were used on Military aircraft except for some prototypes being evaluated for use by the Military and these were biplanes from the early 30's...
None of the Electra’s sold to Australia were lost in New Guinea. Those airframes were powered by the P&W R-985 or the Wright R-975
Earhart was stuck in LAE for two days and met with Guinea Airways people. For the world trip her representatives scouted for suitable jumping off points and Rabaul was considered but at the time there was Volcanic eruption there.. LAKUNAI airstrip and VUNUKANAU were in existence. Surely, she and Noonan would have known about those. Pilots also discuss known strips with other pilots. I see no reason why someone would have not said to her, “If you encounter bad weather or a technical problem Vunakanau has just opened, you can duck in there." Sound feasible ?
What we have then, is that there are two P&W R-1340 S3H1 engines where they “should not be”.
The Hypothesis Side
There must have been some concern on the aircraft when it was discovered that the wind out of the East was double the forecast, as evidenced by the 23 Knot wind (26.5 mph) discovered when they rounded the corner just West of the NUKUMANU Atoll. This is evidenced by them being blown to the West of Nukumanu on the leg from CHOISEUL as reported in the 0718 GMT Lat/Long position. They could have only determined that position after working it out by a timed run from the turn to a position abeam Nukumanu Island itself, the biggest island in the atoll.
To their dismay…. They have a 26 mph headwind that they have to cope with if they are to continue. They should have turned back but a celebration in Los Angeles awaited them on July 4th. A sure case of “Pressonitis” developed. Personally my thought is that if I had been on board there would have been an argument. That’s how I see it.
Mary Lovell (Author of "The Sound of Wings") reported that at 0800 GMT Earhart radioed: “On course for Howland at 12,000 feet”. Lovell got that from Harry Balfour the Radio Operator at LAE.
Now, “I” did not take that 12,000 feet call into consideration when I worked the fuel used from then on (after 0800 GMT). Maybe I should have because it is known that Earhart did fly the Electra at 12,000 feet in the U.S.. Also, there is the point that the night-time cloud layer may have been at the 10,000 foot level and she went over it for a clear view of the night sky, needed for Astro.
Flying higher at 12,000 instead of 10,000 will use less fuel. Maybe I should run the numbers at 12,000 feet and see what I get. I didn’t use 12,000 feet because of the prolonged exposure above the Oxygen level but then again, maybe I should. I myself have been at 11,500 feet on a mountain top for two days and felt no ill-effect.
I consider the wind situation after Nukumanu to be serious. The ONTARIO at Sea Level was facing into a 20 Knot wind from 082 degrees, that is in the Ship’s Log, who is to say that the wind at 10,000 or 12,000 was not anywhere near 30 knots ? If Noonan did not get Astro he will not know the wind.
One Air Niugini pilot ferrying a Dash 7 aircraft from TARAWA to PORT MORESBY told me he was concerned about the wind at Flight Level 140 in the ITCZ until he encountered a quartering tailwind of 45 knots shown on his GPS. His fuel worries were over. That was also in mid-year.
So we have all these variables that we cannot determine with any surety but the fact is they didn’t reach Howland. My Hypothesis working at Best Lift/Drag to economise on fuel shows it to be impossible for them to be at Howland or lateral to it at 1912 GMT, I have them 250 miles short.
That is the Hypothesis.
Arising from the Hypothesis is the Contingency Plan to turn back to The Gilbert islands. If you have a contingency to turn back if you do not find your destination, you have to have "contingency fuel" a level you cannot go below. If you are unsure of your position you have the single choice of turning back or turning towards where there is land that you definitely know exists and The Gilberts are the perfect choice in this case. Turning NW for the scattered Marshalls or SE for the scattered Phoenix Group is madness if you do not know where you are on a trackline. The Gilberts were perfect because they form a line across a reciprocal on a turnback and are difficult to miss.
If they are short of Howland as in the Hypothesis they will see The Gilberts earlier than the four hours she thinks it will take.
We have then the report by Georner of the "Land in sight" call timed at 2200 GMT.
We do know that on the morning of their supposed arrival at Howland that the wind was 31 mph at 7000 feet from the East.
It will be recalled that the “rescue” PBY from HNL had to turn back for Hawaii after encountering sleet and icing conditions on the flight down to Howland. Weird weather for the tropics in mid-year,.
Island Hopping
If a straight line is drawn on a map or on Google Earth from Nukumanu through the Mortlock Atoll and through Carteret Reef and continued westwards, the line will go over where we are searching.
The nearest airstrip available in 1937 to where we search is VUNAKANAU about 35 Nm away almost due North.
Greg 47:
There can be no “modern day ” bone analysis… the Bones were lost in Fiji 70 years go. Didn’t you know that ?
Didn’t you know that two Doctors who examined the bones in 1941 stated the bones and pelvic remnant were MALE ?
Last edited by David Billings; 29th Mar 2018 at 08:30. Reason: More description for better understanding.
You must be a very patient man indeed. Reading your research I cannot understand why someone will not finance a search. Maybe not considered important enough? Maybe they don’t agree?
Let’s face it with the push for women in aviation wouldn’t it be in the best interest of aviation to have a crack at finding this aircraft???
Sounds just right for some money from Qantas, leading the way in gender equality in the flight deck, sorry box office, hehehe...
Let’s face it with the push for women in aviation wouldn’t it be in the best interest of aviation to have a crack at finding this aircraft???
Sounds just right for some money from Qantas, leading the way in gender equality in the flight deck, sorry box office, hehehe...
Agree completely, every time this post gets bumped to the top more interest is generated.
Surely the Townsville refueller must have a contact or two?
Surely the Townsville refueller must have a contact or two?
It's hard to believe you were 'bemused' at David's response of not saying exactly where they are searching.
What are you going to do for him, find it on Google Earth, jeez.
David has obviously sweated blood to do the searches he has already done, why would he feel like making it easy for any competitors.
What are you going to do for him, find it on Google Earth, jeez.
David has obviously sweated blood to do the searches he has already done, why would he feel like making it easy for any competitors.
With regard to your post on radio, earlier I posted some data on sunspot activity at the time (it being, simplistically, the peak of the peak). In my view this data does not set aside the possibility that a physically distant transmitting station could be heard strongly, possibly as if local, given the frequencies in use. In other words it cannot be disproven, albeit it cannot be proven either.
FP.
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Aaaah, the "S5" Reception...
With regard to your post on radio, earlier I posted some data on sunspot activity at the time (it being, simplistically, the peak of the peak). In my view this data does not set aside the possibility that a physically distant transmitting station could be heard strongly, possibly as if local, given the frequencies in use. In other words it cannot be disproven, albeit it cannot be proven either.
FP.
In 1994 when I first entered this "Earhart Search", I was in the Quality Assurance Office at Air Niugini and sat at the next desk to me was a highly qualified Avionics Inspector who had previously had his own business in the Land of Sand. He was interested enough to read Mary Lovell's "The Sound of Wings" ...and immediately on returning the book, he said four things.
1: "Very Interesting"
2: Her Receiver was out.
3: 1937 was a year of high sunspot activity.
4: The S5 heard at the USCG ITASCA, meant nothing in regard to her being close, she could have been a thousand miles away and still be S5.
Basically the same as First_Principal is saying.
With regard to your post on radio, earlier I posted some data on sunspot activity at the time (it being, simplistically, the peak of the peak). In my view this data does not set aside the possibility that a physically distant transmitting station could be heard strongly, possibly as if local, given the frequencies in use. In other words it cannot be disproven, albeit it cannot be proven either.
FP.
1: "Very Interesting"
2: Her Receiver was out.
3: 1937 was a year of high sunspot activity.
4: The S5 heard at the USCG ITASCA, meant nothing in regard to her being close, she could have been a thousand miles away and still be S5.
Basically the same as First_Principal is saying.
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Range and fuel
Your detailed website schedules show what might have been possible in terms of return range/fuel remaining. The doubt about how close she actually got to Howland
is obviously a big factor , it seems she could have just about made it to ENB in your theory- which I see allows 'search' time , but if she didn't get that near to Howland then your range calculations are more comfortable.
Either way, you demonstrate a feasible course of events. I'm astounded the modest funding you need is proving problematic.
is obviously a big factor , it seems she could have just about made it to ENB in your theory- which I see allows 'search' time , but if she didn't get that near to Howland then your range calculations are more comfortable.
Either way, you demonstrate a feasible course of events. I'm astounded the modest funding you need is proving problematic.
Bearing in mind the relative crudeness of radio at the time there are several sources by which a strong signal on the same frequency could occur, for example: adjacent transmitter, distant transmitter with propagation, spurii from other local equipment, interaction with rogue connections mixing other signals, and of course the receiver's local BFO. It may also be that such phenomena was not well understood then, thus meaning it might not be recognised by an operator should it occur (somewhere I have a 1938 Admiralty handbook on radio [which still discusses spark transmitters!], when I can find it I'll see if there's any reference to this).
Once again of course this doesn't prove anything, merely that the possibility of Amelia's transmission(s) appearing to be strong at the receiving station, despite her being quite some distance from the locale, exists by (I suggest) at least two methodologies.
FP.
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The bones wether they are neanderthal man or whoever has no connection to any analysis. The pure facts are that Erhart arrived in the area of Howland with a maximun of an hour of fuel. David seems to sugest that she never reached there and somehow turned around and made ENB. Sorry Mate to rain on your parade but i understand you were a flight engineer. I flew as captain on two types with flight engineers the junior member of the flight deck. Im glad i never relied on him regarding fuel state when a decision had to be made
The bones wether they are neanderthal man or whoever has no connection to any analysis. The pure facts are that Erhart arrived in the area of Howland with a maximun of an hour of fuel. David seems to sugest that she never reached there and somehow turned around and made ENB. Sorry Mate to rain on your parade but i understand you were a flight engineer. I flew as captain on two types with flight engineers the junior member of the flight deck. Im glad i never relied on him regarding fuel state when a decision had to be made
Dave's raison d'etre has some foundations by FACT of tangible military sightings and reports (evidence) that a unknown USA built twin engine a/c went down in PNG pre 1945
plus his in depth calculations of altering winds and her (known) fuel use hypothesis which if applied can leave the option open that AE in fact turned back and had more fuel left than she realized (a sensible flyer would have turned around in the circumstances knowing full well at least the Gilberts was back across on her flight path)
No one can use the old bones as any evidence (long gone) so no DNA possible