Who can we blame when Avgas runs out?
Thread Starter
Who can we blame when Avgas runs out?
The supply of oil will run out.
Long before it does, the manufacture of Avgas will become economically unviable.
Long before the manufacture of Avgas becomes economically unviable, it will cost $10pl. I expect that will happen before the end of this decade.
Who can we blame for all this?
I intend to blame Gaunty, but I’m not sure whether that’ll restore the supply of cheap Avgas.
Perhaps the better questions are: what are you all planning to do about the impending cessation of the manufacture of Avgas, and the interim premium you’ll be paying for it?
Long before it does, the manufacture of Avgas will become economically unviable.
Long before the manufacture of Avgas becomes economically unviable, it will cost $10pl. I expect that will happen before the end of this decade.
Who can we blame for all this?
I intend to blame Gaunty, but I’m not sure whether that’ll restore the supply of cheap Avgas.
Perhaps the better questions are: what are you all planning to do about the impending cessation of the manufacture of Avgas, and the interim premium you’ll be paying for it?
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Hopefully GA aircraft will be moving to alternatives like diesel or ethanol
http://www.centurion-engines.com/
http://www.deltahawkengines.com/
http://www.baylor.edu/bias/index.php?id=111
http://www.eere.energy.gov/power/tec...ation_fuel.cfm
http://www.stormingmedia.us/keywords...ion_fuels.html
http://www.centurion-engines.com/
http://www.deltahawkengines.com/
http://www.baylor.edu/bias/index.php?id=111
http://www.eere.energy.gov/power/tec...ation_fuel.cfm
http://www.stormingmedia.us/keywords...ion_fuels.html
An interesting post creamy . It would be interesting to draw a parrallel between the present day and the fuel shocks of the seventies. The induced shock forced most every country to re-think their position on the fuel efficiency of their respective auto fleets. Case in point- 1974 HQ holden 202 returning somewhere around 22-25mpg. 1998 VS Commodore V6 returning around 35mpg, similar weights but more efficient design results in better fuel economy as well as better reliability. Aviation industry especially GA has stagnated in 50's technology. Looking at the homebuilt fleets, we can see some extraordinary designs that are returning both performance and economy. My favorite is a little aussie contraption called an arrow. It uses an 80/100hp subaru motor, cruises at a leasurly 130kts and delivers 37mpg on the old scale. cheap flying 
As for the current fleet of dinosaurs. My thoughts would be a re-engine program using the SNECMA diesel or the Thielert diesel or variations on the new Honda diesel. These engines will return similar power as the current avgas guzzlers and turn them into economical kero burners. At a price though. Bombardier is buliding two V6 geared prop engines, fully electronic firewall forward replacements for the current bigblocks. I understand these will run on avgas/97 unleaded as well as pump gas with no ill effects. Also regulators will have to bite the bullet on allowing full electronic control on the current fleet of bigblock direct drive engines. Fixed timing magnetoes and either carburation or farm tractor fuel injection will have to make way for ECU electronic fuel injection and either CDI or full electronic dual ignition. Water cooling could also be an addition to allow higher temps and closer manufacturing tolerences.
I feel the future will be a lot brighter than some would have us believe. Hydrocarbon based fuels are going to be around with us for a few more years yet. Mate, we have got two hundred years worth of gas deposits of the WA coast. Higher fuel prices will allow the economics of converting gas to liquids a viable reality. Not to mention bio-fuels and full electric power from fuel cells. ALSO with the availability of smaller and less expensive turbines opens up another market....Mate , the possibilities are endless.
TO INFINITY AND BEYOND
Mark
PS The march of the world economy will always have the price of commodities increasing. $10.00 a US gal could be feasable but it would also be intersting to see what the average wage is as well.
As for the current fleet of dinosaurs. My thoughts would be a re-engine program using the SNECMA diesel or the Thielert diesel or variations on the new Honda diesel. These engines will return similar power as the current avgas guzzlers and turn them into economical kero burners. At a price though. Bombardier is buliding two V6 geared prop engines, fully electronic firewall forward replacements for the current bigblocks. I understand these will run on avgas/97 unleaded as well as pump gas with no ill effects. Also regulators will have to bite the bullet on allowing full electronic control on the current fleet of bigblock direct drive engines. Fixed timing magnetoes and either carburation or farm tractor fuel injection will have to make way for ECU electronic fuel injection and either CDI or full electronic dual ignition. Water cooling could also be an addition to allow higher temps and closer manufacturing tolerences.
I feel the future will be a lot brighter than some would have us believe. Hydrocarbon based fuels are going to be around with us for a few more years yet. Mate, we have got two hundred years worth of gas deposits of the WA coast. Higher fuel prices will allow the economics of converting gas to liquids a viable reality. Not to mention bio-fuels and full electric power from fuel cells. ALSO with the availability of smaller and less expensive turbines opens up another market....Mate , the possibilities are endless.
TO INFINITY AND BEYOND
Mark
PS The march of the world economy will always have the price of commodities increasing. $10.00 a US gal could be feasable but it would also be intersting to see what the average wage is as well.
Last edited by OZBUSDRIVER; 5th Sep 2004 at 12:42.
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creamy
While I understand why, I feel it is most unfair to blame gaunty.
After all, has he not done his bit in conserving both avgas and jet-a1 by not flying anything for over a decade????
While I understand why, I feel it is most unfair to blame gaunty.
After all, has he not done his bit in conserving both avgas and jet-a1 by not flying anything for over a decade????
PPRuNeaholic
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PNG has had a major problem with the supply of Avgas for over 12 months already, with no prospects for improvement in the situation any time soon. While the reasons are not specifically based on worldwide supply, Avgas usage has fallen over many years as operators replace piston engined aircraft with turbine engined aircraft, so there is no longer a need to import Avgas in the same quantities as there was in the past.
However, we still have many operators flying pistons and they face an on-going challenge in obtaining fuel around the country every day.
However, we still have many operators flying pistons and they face an on-going challenge in obtaining fuel around the country every day.
It probably will not be an issue in Australia for the simple reason that there will not be many Avgas burning aircraft left flying.
CASA, Dick Smith, AsA and AOPA are making sure of that.
All joking aside look at all the trend lines for GA in Australia. Number of pilots, hours flown etc. The only healthy sector is run by the RAA.
CASA admit quietly that they want all paying passengers flying in turbine aircraft.
CASA, Dick Smith, AsA and AOPA are making sure of that.
All joking aside look at all the trend lines for GA in Australia. Number of pilots, hours flown etc. The only healthy sector is run by the RAA.
CASA admit quietly that they want all paying passengers flying in turbine aircraft.
Understand the same thing as PNG in most parts of Africa. Also remember the two Q captains who circumnavigated the rock in a Lancair IV had troubles in rag-head country trying to source AVGAS.
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There are only two sources of tetraethyl lead these days, one in UK and one in Russia. Google shows up a variety of interesting articles such as
http://www.aviationnow.com/content/ncof/ncf_n40.htm
http://www.aviationnow.com/content/ncof/ncf_n40.htm
There is current work being done by both GAMI (their priism system) and Teledyne Continental to produce FADEC controls for the current stock of 100LL burning aero engines. FADEC will provide variable timing and more precise control of mixture into the engine which will allow it to run on lower octane fuel (such as 96 octane unleaded and other fuels).
Variable timing will increase the detonation margins inside the engine, allowing reduced octane fuels to be safely burned. It should also increase reliability. It should bring aero engine technology into the 90's from its current state, which is stagnant in 50's technology.
Bevan..
Variable timing will increase the detonation margins inside the engine, allowing reduced octane fuels to be safely burned. It should also increase reliability. It should bring aero engine technology into the 90's from its current state, which is stagnant in 50's technology.
Bevan..
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Rather topical posts on a similar subject; Coal powered aircraft?
http://www.pprune.org/forums/showthr...hreadid=143820
http://www.ecology.com/ecology-today/coal-fuel-future/
http://www.pprune.org/forums/showthr...hreadid=143820
http://www.ecology.com/ecology-today/coal-fuel-future/
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Bevan
Unlike the fool above you, your post was helpful and informative.
Thank you.
Pity you are in the minority on this site.
FC
Edited to say, I didn't mean you obiwan
Unlike the fool above you, your post was helpful and informative.
Thank you.
Pity you are in the minority on this site.
FC
Edited to say, I didn't mean you obiwan
Last edited by flichik; 7th Sep 2004 at 06:14.
Was going to post this on greenhouse thread a couple of weeks ago but I think you all may be interested in a different theory
OK, Now for something completely different. Everybody remembers something about how hydrocarbons and coal were formed. In the case of coal, it was formed in the huge floating swamps of the carboniferous period about 1700 million years ago. Most all of the coal is found fairly shallow deposits down to 1km. This was about the time we were still part of Antartica. Oil was produced from an earlier time period from 1700 million years ago to 3.5 billion years ago mostly marine from zooplankton and phytoplankton literally falling in a blizzard on the floor of the shallow oceans of that time. Most of these deposits are now about 4miles down from the present surface and are a fluke of reservoirs forming in sandstones with some sort of permeable cap to stop the stuff evaporating away. Now to introduce you to Thomas Gold and a few Russian scientist In the case of Thomas Gold his theory is that ALL hydrocarbons are produced from geological activity from at least 100km down in the mantle. Pressures of at least 30Kbar and 1500C required to produce heavy hydrocarbon chains. He puts a good explanation to this theory. Explaining why hydrocarbons are found all thru the solar system. Why Titan and Neptune have atmospheres of methane
For me this explains why we find fields in tectonically active areas. Saudi lies near a rift. New Guinea is still going UP Indonesia (there was a theory that Indonesia and Borneo's oil was escaping from the Middle East(juggy stories) Indonesia is certainly not very stable. Where by contrast Australia's oil fields where more predominantly gas /condensate fields produced from higher temperatures and found in sedimentary basins from a similar age. Gold's theory is that in effect life on this planet originated from organic material from within the earths crust not from above it AND hydrocarbons are still being produced. I have often wondered about the processes required for a FINITE source like the Middle East to produce a million barrels a day or better of oil for the last forty years or so.??????
To find out more, start up Google and search "Origin of Hydrocarbons" and read on. Would be interesting to see what the flat earth soc¡..ER greens have to say about that!
Regards
Mark
OK, Now for something completely different. Everybody remembers something about how hydrocarbons and coal were formed. In the case of coal, it was formed in the huge floating swamps of the carboniferous period about 1700 million years ago. Most all of the coal is found fairly shallow deposits down to 1km. This was about the time we were still part of Antartica. Oil was produced from an earlier time period from 1700 million years ago to 3.5 billion years ago mostly marine from zooplankton and phytoplankton literally falling in a blizzard on the floor of the shallow oceans of that time. Most of these deposits are now about 4miles down from the present surface and are a fluke of reservoirs forming in sandstones with some sort of permeable cap to stop the stuff evaporating away. Now to introduce you to Thomas Gold and a few Russian scientist In the case of Thomas Gold his theory is that ALL hydrocarbons are produced from geological activity from at least 100km down in the mantle. Pressures of at least 30Kbar and 1500C required to produce heavy hydrocarbon chains. He puts a good explanation to this theory. Explaining why hydrocarbons are found all thru the solar system. Why Titan and Neptune have atmospheres of methane
For me this explains why we find fields in tectonically active areas. Saudi lies near a rift. New Guinea is still going UP Indonesia (there was a theory that Indonesia and Borneo's oil was escaping from the Middle East(juggy stories) Indonesia is certainly not very stable. Where by contrast Australia's oil fields where more predominantly gas /condensate fields produced from higher temperatures and found in sedimentary basins from a similar age. Gold's theory is that in effect life on this planet originated from organic material from within the earths crust not from above it AND hydrocarbons are still being produced. I have often wondered about the processes required for a FINITE source like the Middle East to produce a million barrels a day or better of oil for the last forty years or so.??????
To find out more, start up Google and search "Origin of Hydrocarbons" and read on. Would be interesting to see what the flat earth soc¡..ER greens have to say about that!
Regards
Mark
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Edited to say, I didn't mean you obiwan
When will oil run out? Not for a while. I've read a few articles saying we will hit peak production within the next 10 years, but after that demand will outstrip supply, pushing prices up. We will start extracting oil reserves that were previously uneconomical to consider. But why wait til then? Oh, that's right - the oil companies bought the patents to all the revolutionary 1000mpg engines/ cars that run on water etc.
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An interesting post creamy . It would be interesting to draw a parrallel between the present day and the fuel shocks of the seventies. The induced shock forced most every country to re-think their position on the fuel efficiency of their respective auto fleets. Case in point- 1974 HQ holden 202 returning somewhere around 22-25mpg. 1998 VS Commodore V6 returning around 35mpg, similar weights but more efficient design results in better fuel economy as well as better reliability. Aviation industry especially GA has stagnated in 50's technology. Looking at the homebuilt fleets, we can see some extraordinary designs that are returning both performance and economy. My favorite is a little aussie contraption called an arrow. It uses an 80/100hp subaru motor, cruises at a leasurly 130kts and delivers 37mpg on the old scale. cheap flying
the technology is already in our skies! Just not for GA, unless your prepared to mortgage a few houses.
this arrow you talk of! any more info?