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Lonewolf_50 23rd April 2026 14:58

fdr: for harmony, insert dhimmitude...but we may be wandering off topic with that.

The Lebanese government's inability to handle the foreign-funded military organization within their borders will not change any time soon. That fact puts these prospective negotiations into jeopardy.
The IRGC's client, Hezbollah, is in what way incentivized to lay down arms?
Or, conversely, who will assist the Lebanese government in putting Hezbollah down?
At the moment, it seems that the only people interested in doing that are the Israelis...which takes us back to where we started, doesn't it?

Lonewolf_50 24th April 2026 11:58

Don't expect this ceasefire to last...heck, it's already being breached.

BEIRUT — Hezbollah reacted with contempt to President Donald Trump’s announcement of a three-week extension of the Israel-Lebanon ceasefire, calling the truce “meaningless.” The Iran-backed militant group is still a powerful force in Lebanon, and concerns over the government’s ability to bring it under control have raised questions about the ceasefire’s long-term fate.
Any Israeli operations in Lebanon give Hezbollah the right “to respond proportionately,” Ali Fayyad, a member of the Hezbollah faction in Lebanon’s parliament, said in a statement carried Friday by Hezbollah’s TV station Al Manar, adding that any deal that does not include an Israeli withdrawal from Lebanese territory affirms the Lebanese people’s “right to resist the occupation.”The 10-day ceasefire, which was due to expire on Sunday, has been only tenuously followed, with fewer but continued attacks by Israel and Hezbollah. So far, it appears that Hezbollah is abiding by the extension after launching rockets toward Israel as talks were underway Thursday. The Israel Defense Forces said it carried out strikes in Kherbet Selem and Touline in southern Lebanon on Friday, but there were no indications that Hezbollah had fired back.
UNIFIL has been around for a few decades. Hasn't stopped much.

soarbum 24th April 2026 13:16

The ceasefire for the IDF means that they have stopped airstikes on Beirut but they still consider air and artillery strikes on anything that moves in the south to be fair game.
The targetting of journalists who might report on the bulldozers that are using the lull to raze villages barely makes the news as they do it so regularly.


Lebanon accuses Israel of targeting journalist killed in air strike

https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/480/cp...4ece4.jpg.webpAPAmal Khalil was a journalist with the Lebanese newspaper Al-Akhbar

Lebanon's prime minister has accused Israel of war crimes after Israeli air strikes killed one journalist and wounded another in southern Lebanon on Wednesday.

The strike killed Amal Khalil, who worked for a Lebanese newspaper, and injured freelance photographer Zeinab Faraj.

Officials in Lebanon say they were deliberately targeted as they sought shelter in a home after an initial air strike hit the vehicle in front of them, killing two men.

The officials also accused the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) of intentionally targeting a marked ambulance as it tried to reach the journalists in the village of Tayri.
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c5yvn036evlo
​​​​​​​


Lonewolf_50 24th April 2026 16:22

You seem to take the accusations as a fact.

Officials in Lebanon say they were deliberately targeted as they sought shelter in a home after an initial air strike hit the vehicle in front of them, killing two men.
How do you arrive at that news person being personally targeted?
(Rather than being in a dangerous place and getting hit as a result).
Is there evidence (or merely accusation) that their location/vehicles were known and explicitly targeted due to being in the media?
Spoiler
 

MechEngr 24th April 2026 18:14

How many US journalists were killed in the 20 years of US involvement in Vietnam? 20. 63 reported for all reporting countries.

How many journalists have IDF killed in the last 3 years? Nearly 300; between a 3000% and 10,000% increase in killing journalists over the Vietnam experience.

This against a background of nearly a half-century of exponential improvements in electronic and optical surveillance, which IDF is using to ensure their kills which "minimize" civilian deaths.


soarbum 24th April 2026 18:34


Originally Posted by Lonewolf_50 (Post 12075811)
...
How do you arrive at that news person being personally targeted?
...

Just bad luck eh, wrong place at the wrong time.
It is certainly possible but consider this

1. She was not killed in the initial strike on the car at 14:45. She took shelter in a nearby house and phoned where she was through various channels but was then targetted with an airstrike at 16:27. Even still alive under the rubble, the IDF prevented an ambulance from providing aid which may well have saved her.

2. The IDF have supposedly agreed to a ceasefire. Even if they did not know that she was a journalist, what is their justification for firing at any unarmed civilian?

3. As pointed out by MechEngr, how is it that so many other journalists have developed such bad luck in the last two years? Why are the journalists in Lebanon, the West Bank and Gaza so much unluckier that their counterparts in Ukraine or any other conflict? https://cpj.org/issue/israel-gaza-war/

Ps: The link in my previous post is not alone in describing this killing as "targetted"
https://www.latimes.com/world-nation...-khalil-israel
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/w...-b2963337.html
https://news.sky.com/story/israel-ac...alist-13535269


Lonewolf_50 24th April 2026 18:45


Originally Posted by soarbum (Post 12075876)
Just bad luck eh, wrong place at the wrong time.

Maybe.

Why are the journalists in Lebanon, the West Bank and Gaza so much unluckier that their counterparts in Ukraine or any other conflict?
1. The Israelis are better shots than the Russians. (If intentional)
2. The Russians are better shots than the Israelis. (if not)
3. They think that they have a physical immunity and take greater risks because of that attitude.
(Probably not the case here, since journo tried to take cover...)
4. The increased lethality of modern weapons.
5. Too close to another target to avoid the frag pattern.
6. other possible factors all ending with
7. A cock up.
But:

Even still alive under the rubble, the IDF prevented an ambulance from providing aid which may well have saved her.
Whether or not they knew who it was in there, or cared, is a piece of this story that would take more evidence to confirm, but that underlined bit sure isn't what I'd expect from our forces in a similar situation.

In any event, thanks for the reply and amplification.

Mech, those are interesting numbers, but think for a minute: how many journos on that list were covering the war from the North Vietnamese side?
You aren't making an apples to apples comparison.

Lonewolf_50 28th April 2026 18:44

So much for the cease fire.

Apr 28, 1:34 PM
Israel will treat southern Lebanon 'just like Gaza,' Israeli defense minister says
Israel will continue to destroy terrorist infrastructure in southern Lebanon "just like in Gaza,” Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz said on Tuesday. "Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and I have instructed the IDF to destroy every terror infrastructure in the security zone up to the yellow line, below and above ground, just like in Gaza,” Katz said.

"The IDF has now destroyed an underground terror infrastructure in Qantara, Lebanon, in a huge explosion, inside the new security zone," Katz said. A ceasefire has in place since April 16 but strikes against Hezbollah in Lebanon have continued. Hezbollah has also continued to target Israeli troop positions in southern Lebanon.
Not sure if it was airstrikes or their combat engineers who did the underground infrastructure destruction.

fdr 28th April 2026 21:07

Making Gaza and southern Lebanon reminiscent of the atrocities set upon the Jews of Europe in the 30's and 40's doesn't seem to be a smart play for international sympathy or support of their actions.

MechEngr 28th April 2026 21:54


Originally Posted by Lonewolf_50 (Post 12075878)
Mech, those are interesting numbers, but think for a minute: how many journos on that list were covering the war from the North Vietnamese side?
You aren't making an apples to apples comparison.

Right - it's not apples to apples. In Gaza the Israelis have near total observational dominance; at least they claim to and claim they only target Hamas fighters. They seem to know that Hamas fighters are in the ambulances and other rescue teams that arrive to help injured civilians, They should know exactly where every journalist is at every moment and I have a fair belief they do,

There should be nearly zero journalists killed in Gaza.

Lonewolf_50 28th April 2026 21:57

Your assumptions of omniscience are over the top, but I feel that their very lax RoE is what is at the root of the casualty count and feel that a more disciplined RoE would result in a lower body count. This was discussed in detail a couple of years ago in the JB Gaza thread (one of them) before as usual they got shut down. Not gonna rehash that here. (And no, they do not have triple canopy jungle as an explanation for "no, I didn't see them before the bomb hit, why do you ask?").

Between drones and a lot of way better ISR assets in the modern age, target identification isn't as hard as it used to be, nor is identification of non targets as hard as it used to be.

fdr 29th April 2026 03:36


Originally Posted by Lonewolf_50 (Post 12075121)
fdr: for harmony, insert dhimmitude...but we may be wandering off topic with that.

The Lebanese government's inability to handle the foreign-funded military organization within their borders will not change any time soon. That fact puts these prospective negotiations into jeopardy.
The IRGC's client, Hezbollah, is in what way incentivized to lay down arms?
Or, conversely, who will assist the Lebanese government in putting Hezbollah down?
At the moment, it seems that the only people interested in doing that are the Israelis...which takes us back to where we started, doesn't it?

Way back, the two groups lived peacefully with respect for the religion of the other, until mid post WW-I, the collapse of the Ottoman Empire, and the rise of both Zionism and Arab Nationalism. Given Balfour's thumb print, not really surprising.

Worth reading Menachem Klein’s book Lives in Common: Arabs and Jews in Jerusalem, Jaffa and Hebron
It gives a glimpse of the level of cooperation that existed before the 20th century started to unravel. The pogroms in Europe by our most prominent fascist at that time, led to higher migration and instability in Palestine, aided by the politicisation of the Grand Mufti who knew how to break crockery. All up, an own goal, and the dismantlement of the pommy "empire" that added more fuel to the fire. The bombing of the King David Hotel in 1946, is not so different to what has happened ever since, including the situation where the political leaders involved are publicly outraged by their military counterparts actions, and in a scene very reminiscent of today, one of the paramilitary groups (Haganah) has initially intended to do a bombing of this sort, and then decided against it, and then another group (Irgun) went ahead anyway and did it.

History, it may not repeat, but it sure does rhyme.


Lonewolf_50 30th April 2026 16:36


Originally Posted by AP
Hezbollah released videos that it claimed showed drone attacks against Israeli troops in Southern Lebanon. The militant group claimed one of the videos showed an attack in Taybeh village against a group of soldiers, followed by another drone attack during an evacuation of injured Israeli military personnel.

And so it continues. What cease fire?

To paraphrase Donald Rumsfeld: you go to war with the air power that you have, not the air power that you wish you had.

ORAC 5th May 2026 14:29

Didn't take them long to learn from Ukraine.

How long before swarms of these are patrolling southern Lebanon on a continuous basis?

Video

​​​​​​​Israeli explosive drone precisely targeting and eliminating two armed Hezbollah operatives in southern Lebanon.

Small drones are now doing what once required jets, artillery, or large-scale operations.


Bob Viking 5th May 2026 14:54

Precise and effective.
 
That’s excellent. So no need to take out an entire building or street to kill a couple of bad guys.

Noted.

BV

ORAC 5th May 2026 15:03

Both sides ramping up drone operations.

Warfare is becoming like the scenes at the start of terminator aren't they?


​​​​​​​Hezbollah continues to strike IDF vehicles in Lebanon with FPVs, including a “Namer” APC with an open rear hatch.

Apparently, a few Israeli units are finally beginning to camouflage their parked vehicles.

Some of the terrorist operators are now maneuvering much more deliberately.


fdr 5th May 2026 17:04


Originally Posted by ORAC (Post 12081624)
Didn't take them long to learn from Ukraine.

How long before swarms of these are patrolling southern Lebanon on a continuous basis?

Video

It is generally unwise to assume that the other team has less competency, commitment and ability to adapt than we have. The use of drones works both ways, and the lesson in Ukraine that stands out hidden in plain sight is, Russia and Ukraine have drone technology on both sides, the effectiveness of the drones is differentiated by the status of the user, whether they are the attacker or the defender. It seems that drones massively increase defender capability, and that should concern Israel which continues a strategy that places attack as a higher priority than defence.

We live in a new world WRT tactics, and those will alter the strategic balances once the penny drops with those of exalted stature that bring us the entertainment that passes for diplomacy today. I still hanker towards the ancients manner of dispute resolution, a la Helen of Troy, (the bit before it got messy with horse poop) where on the plain of troy party A and B send out their leaders and they have a bit of a doo; place Bibby in a paddock with the Ayatollah on his gurney, and see what happens, with Trump as the second course. With drones, the outcome is less certain than we would have expected I'd wager.

Lonewolf_50 7th May 2026 22:14

Source: Wall Street Journal; May 6, 2026

The IDF's strike in Beirut on Wednesday specifically aimed at eliminating the commander of Hezbollah's elite Radwan Force.
Whether they hit him or not, this will make coordination and accommodation between Lebanon and Israel more difficult, and may walk back the progress recently made in open negotiations between Lebanese and Israeli governments.

RatherBeFlying 27th May 2026 18:22

Here in Canada the national broadcaster is clutching its pearls in horror than IDF soldiers razing entire villages à la Gaza are taking casualties from drones launched by folks defending their homes from destruction.

The IDF has long basked in an extremely low casualty rate operating against local populations. With drones we may see an evolution towards a military balance aka MAD.

El Grifo 28th May 2026 14:17


Originally Posted by RatherBeFlying (Post 12092607)
Here in Canada the national broadcaster is clutching its pearls in horror than IDF soldiers razing entire villages à la Gaza are taking casualties from drones launched by folks defending their homes from destruction.

The IDF has long basked in an extremely low casualty rate operating against local populations. With drones we may see an evolution towards a military balance aka MAD.

Tell that to the population of GAZA !!


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